交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-12） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期国内焦煤主产区煤矿已平稳复产，焦煤供给稳定。随着近期钢价下跌，焦炭看降预期 增加，下游焦企及中间环节接货意愿不高，市场交易氛围持续转差，煤矿厂内部分煤种库存有所累积， 且近期线上竞拍延续窄幅震荡，整体煤价弱稳运行；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1130，基差-11.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：部分地区焦钢企业有陆续复产，短期内对原料消耗有所增加，但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak demand and inventory pressure, ethylene glycol is likely to continue its downward trend. The price center may further test the support level of the next range, and if port destocking continues to face obstacles and demand does not improve, the downward pressure may increase [1][2] - Supply has a slight decline, but demand remains sluggish, and inventory pressure is increasing, especially the rapid accumulation of port inventory, which may suppress prices. Although the strengthening basis shows that the spot is relatively resistant to decline, the weakness of the futures main contract and the shrinking trading volume indicate insufficient market confidence. Therefore, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side and demand recovery [22][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped slightly by 3 yuan to 4,319 yuan/ton, showing a four - day oscillating decline. The East China spot price also fell by 5 yuan to 4,435 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 3 yuan to 121 yuan/ton, indicating a premium structure of the spot relative to the futures. The far - month spread fluctuated significantly, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to - 37 yuan and the 5 - 9 spread changing from premium to discount of 12 yuan, suggesting a weak market expectation for medium - term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 77,639 lots to 106,908 lots (a decline of 42%), and the position decreased slightly by 190 lots, reflecting a decrease in market trading activity and an increase in the wait - and - see sentiment of funds [1] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate dropped slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 71.24%. Among them, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, while the coal - based and methanol - based plant operating rates remained stable. Despite the continuous loss of coal - based production at - 338 yuan/ton, the willingness to overhaul did not increase significantly, and the overall supply remained at a high level [1] - **Demand Side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at a low level of 63.43% for many consecutive days. Terminal orders showed no improvement, and the rigid demand support of the polyester segment for ethylene glycol was limited [1] 2. Inventory and Related Analysis - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port increased to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons, reaching a recent high. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, the port inventory accumulation pressure remained unresolved [2] - **Cost - Supply and Demand Relationship**: The coal - based production continued to incur losses, but the plants did not significantly reduce production. The oil - based and methanol - based operating rates remained stable, and the overall supply was loose. The rigid demand support of polyester was insufficient, the terminal weaving operating rate remained low, and the inventory climbed to a new high this year, suppressing market confidence [2] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 10, the East China US dollar market negotiation remained stable, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable, with the market average price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was stable, and downstream players purchased as needed. The South China market spot was weakly stable, with the market negotiation atmosphere being cold, and the current price around 4,470 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 10, market concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East supported the rise in oil prices. However, the commissioning of new ethylene glycol plants has been further implemented, and the spot basis in the market has narrowly shrunk. The current negotiation reference price in East China is around 4,437 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from September 1st to 5th, 2025, the price of industrial silicon in the futures market fluctuated upward, while the spot market remained stable. The main contract of industrial silicon futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with relatively sharp fluctuations and a significant increase in trading volume, indicating intense competition between long and short positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated during the week, showing a pattern of two down - days and three up - days. By the end of the week, the main contract (si2511) rose 450 points, closing at 8,820 points, with a maximum of 8,920 points and a minimum of 8,270 points. The trading volume was 1,916,401 lots, which was higher than the average level in the past period, in line with the characteristics of an adjustment and correction market [3]. - **Variety Market**: Among the industrial silicon futures contracts, the price of the industrial silicon (si2608) contract was the highest and remained relatively stable, while the price of the industrial silicon (si2509) contract was the lowest [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly this week. As of September 5th, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 11,800 yuan/ton, the price of East China non - oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 11,500 yuan/ton, the price of East China 421 silicon remained at 12,200 yuan/ton, the price of East China organic silicon - used 421 silicon remained at 12,800 yuan/ton, the price of 99 silicon (Xinjiang) remained at 10,950 yuan/ton, and the price difference between 421 and 553 was 400 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis Data**: The spot price in East China remained stable during the week, while the futures price rose slightly. The basis was positive and narrowed, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton during the week [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: On the supply side, the production of industrial silicon is expected to decline in September. Although the current silicon price has fallen below the lowest cost line in the southwestern region during the wet season, some enterprises have locked in the selling price through selling hedging, so there is no obvious production cut for the time being. However, after the delivery of hedging orders, silicon factories will cut production due to the inability to accept long - term low prices. In terms of regions, although there is a resumption of production in Xinjiang, the overall resumption rhythm and capacity release are limited; Yunnan and Sichuan are struggling near the cost line, and production enthusiasm is affected [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: Currently, the cumulative main buying of industrial silicon is greater than the main selling, and the main buying has been strong for two consecutive days, indicating strong buyer sentiment. However, from a longer - term and overall supply - demand perspective, industrial silicon still faces significant upward pressure. Whether this rebound can continue depends on changes in the fundamentals and the subsequent sustainability of funds [11]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Overall, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week without significant fluctuations. However, market feedback shows that the spot trading activity is not high, and traders and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [13][14].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9万吨 | ， | | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | | 1万吨 . ， | | 环比减少1 . | 21% . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | 硅库存为21 1万吨 . | ， | 处于低位 ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the mainstream funds' positions are bearish. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding from low levels. Operationally, short positions should be taken on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,299 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position volume is 1,249,082 lots, up 31,805 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -94,945 lots, down 3,832 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 11 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,360 tons, down 300 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 193 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract is 81 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spread between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar is 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 777 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.6302 million tons, down 0.8218 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.2836 million tons, up 122,700 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90%, down 0.27 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2474 million tons, down 5,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.95%, down 0.13 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 796,800 tons, up 7,900 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.8578 million tons, up 32,300 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2]. Industry News - As of the morning of September 2, research shows that 78 coal mines in Shanxi have voluntarily stopped production due to safety and maintenance reasons, involving a production capacity of 94.8 million tons. According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in August was 1.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10%; the cumulative wholesale from January to August this year was 8.93 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34% [2]. Key Focus - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/03 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/08/27 150 875 81698 21287 90.69 499.84 53.0 61.0 -89.93 156100 13250 2025/08/28 200 729 81698 21232 309.94 609.05 55.0 59.0 -82.79 157950 13100 2025/08/29 255 862 79748 21412 93.34 367.91 55.0 59.0 -80.26 158900 13050 2025/09/01 240 1031 79748 20200 -66.94 292.08 55.0 58.0 -86.27 158875 13175 2025/09/02 220 1281 79748 19501 -38.94 411.32 55.0 58.0 -69.58 158775 13075 变化 -20 250 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short - term and have a sideways movement in the medium - term [1][2] - The trend strength of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures data: The closing price of L2601 was 7287, with a daily decline of 0.88%. The trading volume was 282,715, and the open interest increased by 26,798 [1] - Basis and spread data: The basis of the 01 contract was - 107 (previous day: - 158), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 12 (previous day: - 4) [1] - Spot price data: In North China, the price was 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7200); in East China, it was 7280 yuan/ton (previous day: 7300); in South China, it remained at 7400 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market price of LLDPE decreased slightly, with a range of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment was poor. However, at the end of the month, petrochemical companies stopped sales for settlement, and factory prices remained stable, supporting the market quotes. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the trading volume was average [1] Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is continuously improving due to the upcoming peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports the PE price [2] - In recent days, the commodity sentiment has significantly declined, leading to a weak performance in futures [2] - In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August. The maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in East China [2] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a slight inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not significant. Therefore, PE may continue to trade in a range in the medium - term [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Coking Coal and Coke [2] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Views - For coking coal, with improved macro - expectations, slowed inventory depletion at mines, mixed spot transactions, and frequent regulatory pressures, the coking coal 2601 contract will oscillate [5] - For coke, with tight coke inventories in some regions and a game between the eighth round of price hikes and the first round of price cuts, the coke 2601 contract will oscillate [8] Summary by Directory 1. Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt is 1094, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is 1182, coke warehouse receipt is 1608, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1518 [11] 2. Demand, Profit, and开工 - Coking plant's on - paper profit (01 contract) is 160, a week - on - week decrease of 20 [12] - Total coke daily output is 110.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 million tons [12] - Hot metal output is 240.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 19.24 million tons [12] - Coal washery output is 25.98 million tons (with changes in the coal washery sample data), a week - on - week increase of 0.26 million tons [12] 3. Inventory - Coke total inventory is 887.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 87.51 million tons [14] - Coking plant's coke inventory is 65.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.62 million tons [14] - Steel mill's coke inventory is 610.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 68.19 million tons [14] - Port inventory is 212.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.53 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 31.94 million tons [14] - Coking coal total inventory is 2048.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.26 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 187.63 million tons [16] - Coking plant's coking coal inventory is 961.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 109.58 million tons [16] - Steel mill's coking coal inventory is 811.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 77.39 million tons [16] - Port inventory is 275.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 86.98 tons [16] - Coal washery inventory is 289.48 million tons (with data sample changes), a week - on - week decrease of 5.36 million tons [16] 4. Import and Export - From January to July, coking coal imports were 62.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.47% [19] - From January to July, coke exports were 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.02% [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased, with high inventory and weakening cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 in the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, and demand is showing a continuous recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 in the 2511 contract [7][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Supply last week was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase; demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease. Silicon inventory is high, organic silicon inventory is low, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. Xinjiang's 553 production has a loss, and cost support is weakening [6]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 575 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, major port inventory was flat, and sample enterprise inventory increased [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is increasing and near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the predicted August production is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase. Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production and inventory vary, and the industry average cost is 35,590 yuan/ton with a profit of 12,410 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the N - type dense material price was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historical high [10]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is recovering, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Overview**: Presents price changes of various contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon [16]. - **Polysilicon Market Overview**: Shows price changes of various contracts, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon basis and the spread between 421 and 553 grades [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Illustrates the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Presents the cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 to 2025 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Covers DMC price, production, downstream price, import - export, and inventory trends [39][41][45]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [48][51][53]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Covers cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories in the polysilicon market [58][64][67][70][73]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: Displays the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [76]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: Shows trends in new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [77].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the demand for PP has improved month - on - month, and the cost side has also rebounded significantly. The market has stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded due to various unconfirmed information on supply - side policies. However, in the long - term, as maintenance devices resume production and new supply - side production capacity expands, supply pressure will increase. Considering the uncertainty of the cost side and policy directions, the short - term market is slightly stronger, but there is still significant long - term pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 7038, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 169,664, and the open interest increased by 12,407. The 01 - contract basis was - 158, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 21 [1]. - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price ranged from 6900 to 7030 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was from 6880 to 7020 yuan/ton; and in the South China region, it was from 6850 to 7080 yuan/ton [1]. [Spot News] - PP futures fluctuated weakly, providing limited guidance to the spot market. Most producer prices remained stable. Traders adjusted their offers slightly based on inventory and costs. As the weekend approached, downstream factories were mostly on the sidelines, and overall market trading was average [2]. [Market Condition Analysis] - Short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has rebounded. The market has rebounded due to unconfirmed supply - side policy information. In the future, as maintenance devices resume production and new production capacity is added, supply pressure will increase. There is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and policies aim to counter deflation and excessive competition. The short - term market is slightly stronger, but long - term pressure remains high [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3].