Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a staged rebound, but the overall upside is limited. Operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying within the range [4] Summary by Category Coking Coal - Indonesia's government's large - scale production cut plan has led to miners suspending spot coal exports. Some companies' 2026 production quotas may be cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025, causing export quotes to skyrocket and driving the A - share coal sector to a daily limit and coking coal futures to strengthen [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines in major production areas are starting to arrange for holidays and production suspension, leading to a seasonal low in supply. However, the Mongolian coal customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, with relatively sufficient imports. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, and the fundamentals improve marginally [3] - The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with the 1,300 - yuan integer mark being a strong resistance level. The recent rally lacked volume, which may trigger profit - taking by funds. Macroscopically, market trading activity decreases as the Spring Festival approaches, and speculative demand shrinks [3] Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded after hitting the bottom today, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the gap. It is facing short - term pressure near the current level, and it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for now [6][7] Gold - Gold prices continue to decline sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through the platform support and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has changed little, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today, and the trading idea has turned to oscillating bullishly [15][16] Methanol - As the Spring Festival approaches, the methanol market has abundant supply and weakening demand. Enterprises are smoothly clearing their inventories but mostly selling at low prices. The market lacks positive support, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term [18] Pulp - From the perspective of the pulp fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month since the end of last year, driving the pulp price to bottom out and rebound. However, the recovery of domestic terminal consumption is still slow, which should limit the speed and space of price increases. The futures market has shown an oscillating pattern in the recent period [21]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年2月4日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为78.93%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.716万吨，环比增加0.73%,乙 烯法企业产量13.611万吨，环比减少0.96%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预 计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.75%，环比减少0.10个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为31.52%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37%，环比持平，高于历史平 均水平；下游薄膜开工率为65.71%，环比减少0.35个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开 工率为80.97%，环比减少1.09个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 4 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货2月3日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coal**: Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak, restocking is ending, and there is significant upward pressure. In the short - term, prices are more likely to fluctuate and decline. After the Spring Festival, there may be a phased rebound, but the overall upside is limited. It is recommended to use a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [3][4]. - **A - shares**: The A - share market opened higher, then declined, and finally rebounded to close higher. The next day's trend is crucial, and it is recommended to short on rallies for now [6]. - **Gold**: Gold prices continue to fall sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [11]. - **Iron Ore**: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. The domestic demand support is weak, and the price is expected to be bearish with a downward trend [13][14]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume changes little, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. It is recommended to view it from a volatility perspective [18]. - **Methanol**: The supply - demand reduction state does not support the market. Although the reduction in imports is being realized, the negative impact of coastal olefin plant shutdowns has also occurred. The inventory reduction progress is average, and high port inventories suppress the market. Short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on overseas situation developments [21]. - **Pulp**: The pulp spot market operates stably. Some pulp mills and paper mills are under maintenance. The domestic port inventory is under pressure, and downstream demand has insufficient momentum. The futures market shows a range - bound trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coal - **Supply**: In early February, coal mines will gradually stop production for the holiday, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports is about 160,000 tons, and the import volume is stable. The overall supply contraction is limited. The new coal mine safety regulations mainly cause speculative expectations, and there has been no actual large - scale production reduction [4]. - **Demand**: The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but coking is still in a loss state, and the second - round increase faces great resistance. Steel mills' hot metal production remains at around 2.28 million tons, but the profit is low. They only purchase coking coal as needed, and the winter storage restocking is almost over, with limited new demand [4]. - **Technical**: The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,200 yuan/ton. The 1,200 - yuan integer mark is a strong resistance level. Recently, the price failed to break through with high trading volume, which may trigger profit - taking. As the Spring Festival approaches, market trading activity decreases, and speculative demand shrinks [4]. A - shares - **Market Performance**: The A - share market opened higher, declined, and then rebounded to close higher. The daily - line chart showed a mid - sized bullish candlestick with a lower shadow [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily short on rallies [6]. Gold - **Market Trend**: Gold prices continue to fall sharply, and the volatility is expected to continue for some time [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exercise caution when participating [11]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented [14]. - **Demand**: Except for exports, the domestic demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors is still weak [14]. - **Technical**: The price has broken through the platform support, and the market is expected to be bearish [13]. Glass - **Supply - demand**: The daily melting volume changes little, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [18]. - **Technical**: The price closed up today, and it is recommended to view it from a volatility perspective [17]. Methanol - **Supply - demand**: The supply - demand reduction state does not support the market. Although the reduction in imports is being realized, the negative impact of coastal olefin plant shutdowns has also occurred. The inventory reduction progress is average, and high port inventories suppress the market [21]. - **Market Uncertainty**: There are still uncertainties in overseas geopolitical situations, and the Iranian situation is undetermined. Short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on overseas situation developments [21]. Pulp - **Supply - demand**: The pulp spot market operates stably. Some pulp mills and paper mills are under maintenance. The domestic port inventory is under pressure, and downstream demand has insufficient momentum. Paper mills' gross profit has increased as production costs decline [24]. - **Technical**: The futures market shows a range - bound trend [24].

农产品日报 | 2026-02-03 棉价内强外弱，郑糖低位整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14575元/吨，较前一日变动-95元/吨，幅度-0.65%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15806元/吨，较前一日变动-134元/吨，现货基差CF05+1231，较前一日变动-39；3128B棉全国均价16070元/吨， 较前一日变动-113元/吨，现货基差CF05+1495，较前一日变动-18。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，1月23日至1月29日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验2.44万吨，78.1% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为2.14万吨，皮马棉为0.30万吨。至同期，累计分级检验296.18 万吨，81.8%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为287.90万吨，皮马棉为8.28万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，最新一周美棉出口签约再度转弱，终 端需求受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响，整体表现疲软，短期ICE美棉预计仍将维持低位震荡。中长期看， 美棉已处于低估 ...

申万期货品种策略日报-天胶 免责声明 免 责 声 明 本报告的信息均资料来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不 保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、 结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任 何投资决策与本公司无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建议，不得用 于未经允许的其他任何用途。如因投资者将本报告所提供的信息、建议用于非法目的，所产生的 一切经济、法律责任均与本公司无关。 本报告的版权归本公司所有。本公司对本报告保留一切权利，未经本公司书面许可，任何机构和 个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为申银万国期货，且不得对 本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 期货 | | | 价差 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月30日 【行情分析】 截至1月30日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.79个百分点至52.08%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于42.04%，但塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。 1月30日，新增独山子石化一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至78.5%左右，处于偏低水平，标品拉 丝生产比例上涨至28%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本 端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。近 期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率稳定，但其新增 订单有限。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，PP短期跟随市场情绪偏 强震荡，只是PP供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，PP反弹可持续性谨慎对待。由于塑 料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，预计L-PP价差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡运行，最低价6765元/吨，最高价6959元/ ...

2026 年 01 月 30 日 合成橡胶: 高位宽幅震荡 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 13,390 468,486 | 13,265 514,932 | 125 -46446 | | | （03合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 68,184 | 76,340 | -8156 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 3,097,832 | 3,384,797 | -286965 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -390 | -365 | -25 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -140 | -55 | -85 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | | | | | | 华北顺丁 华东顺丁 | （民营） （民营） | 12,650 12,700 | 12,300 12,300 | 350 400 | | | | 华南顺丁 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, but the rate of accumulation in general trade has narrowed. The demand from tire enterprises is mixed, with semi - steel tire capacity utilization slightly increasing and all - steel tire capacity utilization slightly decreasing. It is recommended to watch the pressure near the previous highs for the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. In the import rubber market, traders changed positions and closed arbitrage positions, and factories made appropriate low - price purchases. In the domestic spot market, the trading atmosphere was average, and downstream enterprises only had a small amount of rigid demand inquiries with insufficient actual order follow - up [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, with African rubber accounting for most of the incoming goods. The inventory in bonded warehouses continues to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate in general trade has narrowed. The willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased. The capacity utilization of tire enterprises is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts, pay attention to the pressure near the previous highs and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.03% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 2.75% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated on in detail in the content. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 23, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 95, and the spread between the March and April contracts of 20 - rubber was - 30 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 22, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 109,870 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 55,339 tons, a decrease of 1,411 tons from last week [25]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 22, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of January 22, the basis of 20 - rubber was 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of January 23, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.6 (- 0.4) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 53 (+ 0.8) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Price**: The Yunnan and Hainan producing areas in China are in the off - season [43]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [49]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [53]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [56]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The heavy - truck market in 2025 ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlooks for both coking coal (JM2605) and coke (J2605) are oscillatory, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger oscillation, but overall they are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [1]. - For coking coal, the supply is stable while demand is weak, and it will oscillate at a low level; for coke, the fundamental support is insufficient, and it will operate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Market Situation**: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,240.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. Overall, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, resulting in a situation of increasing supply and stable demand for coking coal [5]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals have not improved significantly. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have been factored in. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain at a low level before the Spring Festival. Future upward momentum for coal prices may rely on policy drivers [5]. Coke (J) - **Market Situation**: The latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.03% [6]. - **Core Logic**: There is increased competition between coke enterprises and steel mills. Coke factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, but downstream acceptance is low. Currently, the coke market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak fundamentals. The increase in Mongolian coal imports weakens the cost support for coke, and concerns about hot metal production cuts due to steel mill accidents have led to a dull market atmosphere for coke, resulting in the futures market operating weakly at a low level [6].