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螺纹钢:板块行情共振,偏强震荡,热轧卷板:板块行情共振,偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:25
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a bullish and volatile market due to sector-wide market resonance [1] - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is rated as 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,356 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.32%); trading volume was 2,878,137 lots, and open interest was 1,998,652 lots, an increase of 92,300 lots. For hot-rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,507 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton (1.98%); trading volume was 995,111 lots, and open interest was 1,554,563 lots, an increase of 46,781 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 50, 40, 30, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 30, 30, 30, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 21 yuan/ton to -7 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 increased by 16 yuan/ton to -43 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 5 yuan/ton to -11 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Production and Inventory Data (July 24)**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 3.65 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 1.22 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.62 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 2.25 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.16 million tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 8.55 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 million tons [2] - **Mid - July Steel Production Data (2025)**: Key steel enterprises produced 2,141 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 214.1 million tons (a 2.1% daily increase); 1,944 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194.4 million tons (a 0.6% daily increase); and 2,080 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208.0 million tons (a 4.6% daily increase) [3] - **Policy News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair pricing practices [3]
沥青:出货续缓,震荡反复
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:59
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the asphalt market, showing that the asphalt market is experiencing slow shipments and repeated fluctuations. The current trend strength is neutral, and the market is following the oil price to fluctuate within a range, while regional spot price differences are stabilizing with fluctuations. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - BU2508 yesterday's closing price was 3,641 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the overnight closing price was 3,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. The trading volume was 391 lots, a decrease of 733 lots, and the open interest was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 87 lots. - BU2509 yesterday's closing price was 3,615 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.36%, and the overnight closing price was 3,591 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%. The trading volume was 205,894 lots, an increase of 38,916 lots, and the open interest was 171,367 lots, a decrease of 15,043 lots. - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 82,180 lots, a decrease of 120 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The basis (Shandong - 08) was 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous day. - The 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan from the previous day. - The Shandong - South China spread was 190, a decrease of 5 from the previous day. - The East China - South China spread was 190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,913 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 4,058 yuan/ton. - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, unchanged, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,701 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price of 3,739 yuan/ton. - As of July 24, the refinery operating rate was 31.95%, a decrease of 1.29% from July 21, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.10%, a decrease of 0.79% from July 21 [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Production Data**: In the week of 20250718 - 20250724, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 51.7 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week and a 12.1% increase year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to July was 1,755.4 million tons, a 7.7% increase year - on - year [14]. - **Inventory Data**: - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 72.3 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 21. The East China region had the largest de - stocking amplitude. - As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 185.7 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from July 21. The East China region's social warehouses had obvious de - stocking [14]. 3.3 Trend Strength The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the strength range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9].
软商品日报:多空交织美棉震荡运行,棉花高位震荡-20250728
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which is prone to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics. Textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary According to the Data Directory 3.1 Outer Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars): The price decreased from 16.57 on July 24, 2025, to 16.28 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.75% [3]. - US cotton (in dollars): The price decreased from 68.74 on July 24, 2025, to 68.23 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.74% [3]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): The price remained at 6050.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): The price increased from 5910.0 on July 24, 2025, to 5920.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.17% [3]. - Cotton Index 328: The price decreased from 3281 on July 24, 2025, to 3280 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.09% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): The price increased from 15400.0 on July 24, 2025, to 15450.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.32% [3]. 3.3 Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: The spread increased from 53.0 on July 24, 2025, to 63.0 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 18.87% [3]. - SR05 - 09: The spread increased from - 251.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 233.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 7.17% [3]. - SR09 - 01: The spread decreased from 198.0 on July 24, 2025, to 170.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 14.14% [3]. - CF01 - 05: The spread remained at 75.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - CF05 - 09: The spread increased from - 170.0 on July 24, 2025, to - 130.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 23.53% [3]. - CF09 - 01: The spread decreased from 95.0 on July 24, 2025, to 55.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 42.11% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: The basis decreased from 242.0 on July 24, 2025, to 214.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 11.57% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: The basis decreased from 295.0 on July 24, 2025, to 277.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 6.10% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: The basis remained at 44.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: The basis decreased from 1498.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1434.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.27% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: The basis decreased from 1573.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1509.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 4.07% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: The basis decreased from 1403.0 on July 24, 2025, to 1379.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.71% [3]. 3.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: The price increased from 78.7 on July 24, 2025, to 79.2 on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 0.64% [3]. 3.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: The profit remained at 1582.0 from July 24 to 25, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. 3.6 Options - SR509C5900: Implied volatility is 0.1037, and the futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 6.95 [3]. - SR509P5900: Implied volatility is 0.1111 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1531, and the futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.6 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1511 [3]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 20940.0 on July 24, 2025, to 20642.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 1.42% [3]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 9337.0 on July 24, 2025, to 9265.0 on July 25, 2025, with a decline of 0.77% [3]. 4. Company Information - The report is from Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [8].
焦炭:一轮提涨落地,震荡偏强,焦煤:震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:14
2025 年 7 月 21 日 焦炭:一轮提涨落地,震荡偏强 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 流跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 926 | 7.5 | 0. 82% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1518 | -1 | -0. 07% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1316545 | 531903 | -19562 | | | | J2509 | 28533 | 43932 | -822 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1300 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1300 | 漆跌(元/吨) 0 | | | 焦煤 | 山西仓单成本 | 894 | 894 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 950 | 950 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1150 | 1150 | 0 | | | | 峰景折人民币 | 1517 | 1519 | -2 | | 现货价 ...
硅铁:钢招情绪不减,宽幅震荡,锰硅:钢招情绪不减,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 07:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel procurement sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remains strong, and both are in a wide - range oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of 2508 and 2509 contracts are 5466 and 5482 respectively, with volume of 5,010 and 122,756, and open interest of 11,364 and 193,107. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of 2508 and 2509 contracts are 5792 and 5794 respectively, with volume of 1,553 and 146,872, and open interest of 12,184 and 353,847 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton, Mn44 block manganese ore is 39.0 yuan/ton - degree, and small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - 08 futures spread of ferrosilicon is - 216 yuan/ton, the spot - 09 futures spread of silicomanganese is - 194 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread of ferrosilicon is - 16 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese is - 2 yuan/ton. The 2508 spread between silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is 326 yuan/ton, and the 2509 spread is 312 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 17, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, etc. The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, etc. The northern price of 6517 silicomanganese is 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern price is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [2]. - **Steel Procurement News**: A steel mill in Jiangsu set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 1000 tons. Steel mills in Zhejiang, Henan, and Qingyuan set the purchase prices of silicomanganese at 5770 yuan/ton (converted to base, acceptance bill, tax - included, delivered to the factory), 5735 yuan/ton (cash, tax - included, delivered to the factory), and 5800 yuan/ton (cash, tax - included, delivered to the factory) respectively, with the latter rising 80 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Steel Output Data**: In early July, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% decrease year - on - year. The average daily output of steel products was 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 0.4% increase year - on - year [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250718
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:47
Report Overview - Report Date: July 18, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Content: Analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of multiple agricultural product futures including soybean meal, soybeans, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Technical buying drove up CBOT soybean prices, and the domestic market showed a strong trend [4][6]. - **Sugar**: The market was in a narrow consolidation phase [7]. - **Cotton**: The near - term contracts were stronger than the long - term ones [11]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrived earlier, and the culling of hens slowed down [16]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for the end - of - month market to confirm the price trend, with a focus on reserve policies [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4,200 yuan/ton (+34, +0.82%) during the day and 4,215 yuan/ton (+21, +0.50%) at night; DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton (+51, +1.71%) during the day and 3,033 yuan/ton (+22, +0.73%) at night. CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1027.25 cents/bushel (+7.5, +0.74%). The spot price of soybean meal in different regions had various changes, and the trading volume was 16.81 million tons/day, with a weekly inventory of 84.29 million tons [4]. - **News**: On July 17, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to active technical buying and strong Chicago soybean oil prices. However, the optimistic outlook for US soybean production limited the price increase [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybeans had a trend intensity of +1, indicating a relatively strong trend [6]. 3.2 Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.75 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,050 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,828 yuan/ton. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [7][8]. - **News**: Pakistan approved the import of 50 million tons of sugar, the Brazilian central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress was slow but the MIX increased significantly, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and Brazil's sugar exports in June increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]. 3.3 Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509 closed at 14,250 yuan/ton (+1.86%) during the day and 14,320 yuan/ton (+0.49%) at night. The spot prices of cotton in different regions increased to varying degrees. The cotton spot market was generally quiet, and the cotton yarn market had potential restocking and speculative demand [11][12]. - **News**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly, supported by the expectation of a trade agreement but limited by the strong US dollar and average weekly export sales data [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. 3.4 Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The egg 2508 contract closed at 3,462 yuan/500 kilograms (+0.14%), and the egg 2510 contract closed at 3,371 yuan/500 kilograms (-1.40%). The spot prices of eggs in different regions increased [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. 3.5 Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of hogs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong decreased, while the futures prices of hog contracts such as 2509, 2511, and 2601 increased. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts changed to varying degrees [20]. - **Market Logic**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, and the focus is on reserve policies. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].
玉米:关注现货
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 01:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The trend strength of corn is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The northeast purchase average price is not available, the Jinzhou closing price is 2,350 yuan/ton, the Guangdong Shekou price is 2,430 yuan/ton, and the Shandong corn starch price is 2,840 yuan/ton, with no price changes from the previous day [1] - **Futures Prices**: For C2509, the previous day's closing price was 2,293 yuan/ton (-0.35%), and the overnight closing price was 2,280 yuan/ton (-0.57%); for C2511, the previous day's closing price was 2,264 yuan/ton (-0.26%), and the overnight closing price was 2,255 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For C2509, the previous day's trading volume was 373,438 hands (-67,815), and the open interest was 1,054,601 hands (+18,363); for C2511, the previous day's trading volume was 51,567 hands (-19,331), and the open interest was 395,745 hands (+1,998). The total trading volume of the corn market was 463,826 hands (-103,480), and the total open interest was 1,705,212 hands (+23,637) [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of the corn market were 185,421 hands (-390) [1] - **Price Spreads**: The main 09 basis was 57 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 29 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Corn Prices**: The northern corn collection port price is 2,280 - 2,300 yuan/ton (listed), the container collection port price is 2,330 - 2,360 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton); the Guangdong Shekou bulk carrier price is 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton (-10 yuan), the container new crop quotation is 2,470 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Northeast enterprise corn prices mostly declined, while North China corn prices rebounded [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The price of Argentine sorghum (bulk) in Guangdong for July - August shipment is 2,130 yuan/ton, the price of Australian sorghum for July - August shipment is 2,430 yuan/ton. The pre - sale price of imported barley for August - September shipment is 2,140 - 2,180 yuan/ton, and for November - December shipment is 2,050 yuan/ton. The price of feed wheat for July delivery is 2,530 yuan/ton, and for August is 2,560 yuan/ton [2]
铝:淡季承压,氧化铝:短期偏多震荡,铸造铝合金:成本支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:49
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum is under pressure during the off - season. - Alumina shows a short - term bullish and volatile trend. - Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,415, down 280 from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 2,602, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract have changed compared to previous periods [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 3,145, up 28 from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest have also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract is 19,805, down 125 from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest have different changes [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 483,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 3,879.07, down 339.25 from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina is 3,186, unchanged from the previous day. The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises is not clearly stated [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 24, unchanged from the previous day. The three - place inventory total is 26,680, an increase of 1,368 from the previous day [1]. 3.3 Other Information - EU is ready to impose counter - tariff on 72 billion euros of US goods if the trade negotiation fails. Brazil is seeking to reduce the new tariff from 50% to 30% and postpone it for 90 days [3]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].
纯苯:偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:58
2025 年 07 月 15 日 纯苯:偏弱震荡 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号:Z008016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 6189 | 6183 | 6 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1289 | -1233 | -56 | | BZ2604 | 6170 | 6167 | 3 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -1178 | -1133 | -45 | | BZ2605 | 6198 | 6150 | 48 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1020 | -989 | -31 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 19 | 16 | 3 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1004 | -996 | -8 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -28 | 17 | -45 | 山东纯苯价格 | 5850 | 5850 | 0 | | 纸货价格:N+1 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250715
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:40
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil plates will have wide - range oscillations due to the undiminished sector sentiment [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are slightly boosted by the settlement of steel tender prices [2][10]. - Coke will oscillate with an upward trend [2][13]. - Coking coal will oscillate with an upward trend affected by news disturbances [2][14]. - Steam coal will stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][18]. - Logs will have wide - range oscillations due to the change of the main contract [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12509) closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.33%). The import and domestic ore prices generally increased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil Plate - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of HC2510 closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. China's steel exports in June were 967.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.0 million tons from the previous month. The weekly data on July 10 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hot - rolled coil plate is 0 [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts increased. The spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the tender prices for silicon iron and silicon manganese in July and increased the procurement volume [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: The port prices of coking coal and the CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were provided [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day. The opening, high, low, and closing prices and trading volume and open interest were reported [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: The prices of imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas were provided. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were reported [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts (2509, 2511, 2601) showed different trends. The spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].