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甲醇:短期偏弱,中期震荡格局
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:09
Group 1: Report's Overall View - The investment outlook for the methanol industry is short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The closing price of methanol's main contract (01 contract) was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,413 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume was 373,944 lots, and the open interest was 710,322 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,466 tons, down 100 tons; the turnover was 902.159 million yuan, down 211.856 million yuan [2] - The basis was - 123, up 4; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 123, down 7 [2] Spot Market - The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Group 3: Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2167.67, down 6.18. The Taicang spot price was 2272, down 25, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2080, down 2.5. Among 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 13 cities saw price drops ranging from 2.5 to 90 yuan/ton [3] - The domestic methanol market in most regions showed a weak performance. Only in some parts of Shanxi, due to supply contraction, the auction was concluded at a premium. The sharp decline in futures prices suppressed market sentiment, traditional downstream buyers pressured prices, and traders were actively reporting volumes [3] - Due to a large - scale event in early September and downstream rigid demand, the impact of freight rate increases on the upstream and downstream should be watched out for. Also, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of some methanol plants in the production areas and the impact of low - priced goods from Xinjiang. The port market remained weak, and the basis continued to weaken [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak outlook (the range of trend intensity is integers in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish) [6]
LPG:进口成本存支撑,但供需缺乏明显改善,丙烯:供需紧平衡,价格偏强整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 01:56
Group 1: Report Core Views - The import cost of LPG provides support, but there is no significant improvement in supply and demand [1] - Propylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and its price is consolidating strongly [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Futures Data Futures Prices - PG2509 closed at 3,878 yesterday with a -0.56% daily increase, and 3,889 in the night session with a 0.28% increase [1] - PG2510 closed at 4,387 yesterday with a -0.14% daily increase, and 4,428 in the night session with a 0.93% increase [1] - PL2601 closed at 6,470 yesterday with a -0.03% daily increase, and 6,510 in the night session with a 0.62% increase [1] - PL2602 closed at 6,522 yesterday with a 0.00% daily increase, and 6,543 in the night session with a 0.32% increase [1] Position and Trading Volume - PG2509 had a trading volume of 12,533 yesterday, a decrease of 6081 from the previous day, and a position of 29,779, a decrease of 5452 from the previous day [1] - PG2510 had a trading volume of 66,214 yesterday, a decrease of 32854 from the previous day, and a position of 101,565, a decrease of 3370 from the previous day [1] - PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,399 yesterday, a decrease of 1125 from the previous day, and a position of 4,614, an increase of 28 from the previous day [1] - PL2602 had a trading volume of 0 yesterday, a decrease of 23 from the previous day, and a position of 849, unchanged from the previous day [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 143 yesterday, compared to 137 the previous day [1] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 193 yesterday, compared to 187 the previous day [1] - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 30 yesterday, compared to -2 the previous day [1] - The spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was -45 yesterday, compared to -47 the previous day [1] - The spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was -45 yesterday, compared to -97 the previous day [1] Industry Chain Key Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.7%, compared to 76.3% last week [1] - The MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, compared to 63.4% [1] - The alkylation operating rate was 47.3%, compared to 49.0% [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0; the trend intensity of propylene is 0 [6] Group 4: Market Information CP Paper Cargo Prices - On August 22, 2025, the September CP paper cargo price for propane was 518 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 495 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [7] - The October CP paper cargo price for propane was 534 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans with different start and end times [8] Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple production enterprises such as Shengli Oilfield, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have LPG factory device maintenance plans with different start and end times and loss volumes [8]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250821
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:41
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: With the macro risk preference not significantly corrected, there is still support [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Log: Repeated oscillation [2][16] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series futures products on August 21, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and log, providing corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities based on fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: No detailed data presented in the text [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data** - Rebar (RB2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,132 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.38%); trading volume was 1,317,374 lots, and open interest was 1,523,392 lots, a decrease of 85,302 lots [7] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,402 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.61%); trading volume was 619,254 lots, and open interest was 1,123,892 lots, a decrease of 61,086 lots [7] - **Macro and Industry News** - The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% [8] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [8] - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [8] - In early August 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous ten - day period [9] - On August 14, steel output: rebar - 0.73 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.7 million tons; total inventory: rebar + 30.51 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.84 million tons; apparent demand: rebar - 20.85 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 8.54 million tons [9] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data** - Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price was 5,622 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; trading volume was 267,911 lots, and open interest was 228,094 lots [10] - Silicomanganese 2511: Closing price was 5,818 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; trading volume was 56,642 lots, and open interest was 117,713 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News** - On August 20, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton (- 50), and the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton (- 50) [11] - A steel mill in Fujian set the price of silicomanganese at 6,017 yuan/ton on the 19th, a 217 - yuan increase from July, with a procurement volume of 11,600 tons [11] - In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2.7435 million tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July last year [12] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a relatively weak downward trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data** - Coking coal (JM2601): Closing price was 1,162.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (- 2.7%); trading volume was 1,974,478 lots, and open interest was 698,714 lots, a decrease of 15,151 lots [13] - Coke (J2601): Closing price was 1,678 yuan/ton, down 30.5 yuan/ton (- 1.8%); trading volume was 30,721 lots, and open interest was 39,060 lots, an increase of 644 lots [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Log - **Fundamental Data**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of log futures contracts (such as 2509, 2511, 2601), as well as the price information of log spot markets in Shandong and Jiangsu [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the commodity residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]
玉米:偏弱运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for corn is "Weak operation" [3] Core Viewpoint - Corn is expected to run weakly, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish outlook [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Northeast acquisition average price and North China acquisition average price are not available; Jinzhou closing price is 2,310 yuan/ton; Guangdong Shekou price is 2,400 yuan/ton; Shandong corn starch price is 2,840 yuan/ton, all with no price change [1] - **Futures Prices**: C2509 closed at 2,242 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1.10%, and 2,236 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.27%; C2511 closed at 2,170 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.60%, and 2,165 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.23% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: C2509 trading volume was 124,972 lots yesterday, a decrease of 54,590 lots, and open interest was 257,404 lots, a decrease of 59,163 lots; C2511 trading volume was 353,719 lots yesterday, a decrease of 110,167 lots, and open interest was 925,944 lots, an increase of 29,682 lots; The entire corn market trading volume was 614,735 lots yesterday, a decrease of 203,317 lots, and open interest was 1,766,482 lots, a decrease of 4,839 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The entire corn market had 113,481 warehouse receipts yesterday, a decrease of 16,946 lots [1] - **Price Spreads**: The main 11 - basis was 140 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 72 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - **Northern Corn Port Prices**: Northern corn port prices (listed) are 2,250 - 2,260 yuan/ton (14.5% moisture), down 20 yuan/ton from yesterday; container port prices are 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton [2] - **Guangdong Shekou Prices**: Guangdong Shekou bulk carrier prices are 2,370 - 2,390 yuan/ton, and container quotes are 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - **Northeast Enterprise Prices**: Northeast enterprise corn prices are weakly operating. Heilongjiang deep - processing dry grain acquisition prices are 2,200 - 2,270 yuan/ton; Jilin deep - processing corn mainstream acquisition prices are 2,200 - 2,260 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia deep - processing corn mainstream acquisition prices are 2,280 - 2,360 yuan/ton [2] - **North China Prices**: North China corn prices rebounded slightly. Shandong deep - processing prices are 2,450 - 2,560 yuan/ton, ordinary livestock and poultry feed corn prices are 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, pig feed corn prices are 2,470 - 2,500 yuan/ton; Henan prices are 2,450 - 2,550 yuan/ton; Hebei prices are 2,440 - 2,500 yuan/ton [2] - **Imported Grains**: Argentine sorghum (bulk) in Guangdong for September - October shipment is quoted at 2,120 yuan/ton; Australian sorghum for September shipment is quoted at 2,430 yuan/ton (limited quantity); Imported barley for October - November shipment is pre - sold at 2,100 - 2,150 yuan/ton; Imported barley for December - January shipment is pre - sold at 2,040 - 2,090 yuan/ton; Feed wheat for September delivery is priced at 2,510 yuan/ton [2]
硅铁:板块情绪偏弱,偏弱震荡,锰硅,现货报价坚挺,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:45
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon sector is weak, with a tendency for a weak and volatile trend. The spot price of silicomanganese is firm, showing a wide - range oscillation [1]. - The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of the 2509 and 2510 contracts are 5710 and 5688 respectively, down 44 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 35,596 and 50,479, and the open interests are 53,054 and 63,542. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of the 2509 and 2510 contracts are 6026 and 6030 respectively, with the 2509 contract unchanged and the 2510 contract down 2 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 112,392 and 27,269, and the open interests are 142,698 and 51,731 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5450 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5820 yuan/ton, up 20 from the previous trading day. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 40.2 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 09 futures) is - 260 yuan/ton, up 44; the basis of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 206 yuan/ton, up 20. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon (2509 - 2601) is - 156 yuan/ton, up 2; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese (2509 - 2601) is - 94 yuan/ton, down 6. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 316 yuan/ton, up 44; the cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 254 yuan/ton, up 52 [1]. Macro and Industry News - On August 18, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions is: 5350 - 5450 in Shaanxi, 5450 - 5550 in Ningxia, 5400 - 5500 in Qinghai, 5450 - 5550 in Gansu, and 5500 - 5600 in Inner Mongolia. The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in different regions is: 5900 - 5950 in Shaanxi, 5800 - 5850 in Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicomanganese in the north is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the south is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2]. - As of August 16, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port is 367.64 million tons, up 5.25 million tons from the previous period; the inventory in Qinzhou Port is 75.61 million tons, down 6.9 million tons; the inventory in Caofeidian Port is 0 million tons; the inventory in Fangchenggang is 5 million tons, unchanged. The total manganese ore inventory is 448.25 million tons, down 1.65 million tons [2]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3].
硅铁:板块情绪偏弱,偏弱震荡,锰硅:板块情绪偏弱,偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 05:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy sectors are both "weak and fluctuating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy sectors is weak, and the markets are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing prices of SiFe2509 and SiFe2510 are 5,754 and 5,732 respectively, up 10 and 8 from the previous trading day; the closing prices of MnSi2509 and MnSi2510 are 6,026 and 6,032 respectively, down 24 and 22 from the previous trading day. Trading volumes and open interests are also provided [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ferroalloy FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5,800 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.2 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.1; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton, up 30 [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 304 yuan/ton, down 10; the spot - futures price difference of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton, up 24. Other price differences such as near - far month and cross - variety are also presented [1] Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 15th, the prices of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy in different regions and the prices of 6517 silicon manganese in the north and south are reported. The FOB prices of silicon ferroalloy are also given. Multiple steel groups' silicon manganese tender prices and quantities in August are detailed, showing price increases compared to July [2][3] - **Production and Inventory News**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; the daily average crude steel output in July was 2.569 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%; from January to July, the crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. As of August 16th, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.4825 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,500 tons [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250818
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:30
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Support remains as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Logs: Repeated oscillation [2][18] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Relevant data is tracked from Mysteel, Dongcai Choice, and the research institute [4] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [4] - **Trend strength**: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, RB2510's yesterday's closing price was 3,188 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); HC2510's was 3,439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [6] - **Macro - industry news**: In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 4.1%. Their steel inventory increased by 2.0% compared to the previous ten - day period. On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and various spreads. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,754 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [10] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output decreased by 4.0% year - on - year. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons compared to the previous period [10][14] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,230 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.3%) [15] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot - futures spreads, and various spreads of different log products. For example, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 815, with a daily increase of 0.7% [19] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 balance increased by 5.6% year - on - year [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]
LPG:短期估值合理,震荡运行,丙烯:供需收紧,价格存一定支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:10
2025 年 8 月 18 日 商 品 研 究 LPG:短期估值合理,震荡运行 丙烯:供需收紧,价格存一定支撑 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,861 | 0.08% | 3,872 | 0.28% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,332 | 0.56% | 4,331 | -0.02% | | | PL2601 | 6,492 | 0.06% | 6,475 | -0.26% | | | PL2602 | 6,525 | 0.18% | 6,525 | 0.00% | | 持 仓&成 交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 75,971 | 10341 | 73,799 | -7159 | | | PG2510 | 47,247 | 7426 | 97,481 | -213 ...
硅铁:板块情绪偏弱,偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - The manganese - silicon sector has a weak sentiment and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Core View - The report provides the latest data on silicon - iron and manganese - silicon fundamentals, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and price differences. It also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon - iron, the 2509 contract closed at 5744 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 92,937 and an open interest of 72,388; the 2510 contract closed at 5724 yuan, down 54 yuan, with a trading volume of 73,995 and an open interest of 58,183. For manganese - silicon, the 2509 contract closed at 6050 yuan, down 24 yuan, with a trading volume of 177,497 and an open interest of 172,038; the 2510 contract closed at 6054 yuan, down 32 yuan, with a trading volume of 45,940 and an open interest of 48,032 [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of silicon - iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5450 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 40.3 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 620 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 09 futures price difference of silicon - iron is - 294 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese - silicon is - 250 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - On August 14, the price range of 72 silicon - iron in different regions: 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price range of 75 silicon - iron: 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton in Shaanxi (+50), 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The FOB price of 72 silicon - iron is 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2] - Hegang has finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon - iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from July. A steel mill in Zhejiang set the price of silicon - manganese at 6122 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory, based on the standard), with a purchase volume of 1000 tons. A steel mill in Jiangxi set the price of 6517 silicon - manganese at 6180 yuan/ton (based on the standard, acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), up 80 yuan/ton from the beginning - of - month price [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon - iron is 0, and that of manganese - silicon is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3]
花生:近强远弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the peanut market is "near - strong, far - weak". The peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The prices of important peanut varieties such as Liaoning 308, Henan Baisha, Xingcheng Xiaoriben, and Sudan refined rice remained unchanged at 8,200 yuan/ton, 8,160 yuan/ton, 8,060 yuan/ton, and 8,775 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices**: PK510 closed at 8,116 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.47%, and PK511 closed at 7,988 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.73% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PK510 had a trading volume of 64,410 lots (an increase of 35,782 lots) and an open interest of 89,499 lots (a decrease of 6,193 lots); PK511 had a trading volume of 72,641 lots (an increase of 39,589 lots) and an open interest of 93,792 lots (an increase of 427 lots). The total trading volume of the peanut market was 167,497 lots (an increase of 94,598 lots), and the total open interest was 229,647 lots (a decrease of 3,660 lots) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of peanut warehouse receipts in the market was 0, with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Liaoning 308 was 84 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha was 44 yuan/ton, Xingcheng Xiaoriben was - 56 yuan/ton, Sudan refined rice was 659 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 128 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, new peanuts in some areas are gradually coming onto the market. The prices are stable with limited trading. In Jilin, it is mainly inventory trading, and the prices are generally stable. New peanuts such as Silihong are expected to be listed in mid - to - late September, and 308 is expected to be listed around mid - October. In Liaoning, the raw material acquisition at the grass - roots level has ended, and it is mainly inventory trading with stable prices. In Shandong, it is mainly cold - storage peanut trading, and most areas are in the final stage of trading with limited inventory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].