2026 年 1 月 13 日 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6737 | 0.94% | 598020 | -509 | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | | -87 | -154 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | | -35 | -41 | | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | 重要现货价格 | 华 北 | | 6650 | 6520 | | | | 华 东 | | 6650 | 6560 | | | | 华 南 | | 6780 | 6700 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：标品排产部分回切，区域现货补空延 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 【现货消息】 期货涨势延续，前期盘面反弹，市场补空和套保成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Thanks to short - term favorable factors, iron ore prices are at a high level, but supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of steel mills [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Short - term Favorable Factors Supporting Iron Ore Prices - The structural contradiction in the spot market remains unsolved. Although the inventory at 47 domestic ports has exceeded 167 million tons, the inventory of available varieties has dropped to a very low level, so the total inventory contradiction has not affected the market [3] - Recently, the prices of resource - related varieties have been strong, especially copper and silver. Iron ore, with the strongest financial attributes among ferrous metals, has been boosted by the rise in resource prices [3] - The variety arbitrage logic provides support. The current black - metal positions still favor iron ore long positions and short positions in other varieties, which is also beneficial to the iron ore price trend [3] - The restocking expectation of steel mills is being realized. The inventory in steel mills has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the spot trading volume at ports has also increased, leading to an improvement in iron ore demand [3] Limited Improvement Space in Demand - At the beginning of the new year, steel mills started to resume production, and iron ore demand improved. The latest daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore were 2.2743 million tons and 2.8067 million tons respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.0085 million tons and 0.0063 million tons [4] - However, the improvement space of iron ore demand is limited. On one hand, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the loss - making proportion of long - process steel mills is still large. The profit - making ratio among 247 steel mills is 38.10%. On the other hand, the downstream steel market is in the traditional off - season, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which restricts the production - increasing motivation of steel mills [4] - The relatively positive aspect is that as the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills have the motivation to restock. In the past five years, the average inventory in steel mills before the festival increased by about 16.3 million tons, and restocking was mostly concentrated in the four weeks before the festival, which will form short - term support for iron ore demand and prices [4] High Supply Pressure - The arrival volume at domestic ports has recovered as expected. The latest value at 47 domestic ports is 28.247 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level this year [5] - After the year - end shipment rush, the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high, but the global iron ore shipment volume is still higher than the same period last year. The cumulative global iron ore shipments in December increased by 13.74 million tons and 19.55 million tons respectively compared with the previous month and the same period last year, and the floating inventory is high, so the arrival volume at ports will remain relatively high [5] - The port iron ore inventory has continuously reached new highs. The latest inventory at 47 domestic ports and the number of ships at ports are 167.2179 million tons and 109 respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.1135 million tons and 14 respectively. The total inventory contradiction has not been alleviated, and the de - stocking pressure is still significant [5] - In the long term, more new production capacity will be put into use in 2026. Under a relatively neutral expectation, the supply increment may exceed 60 million tons, which will exacerbate the loose supply pattern and put pressure on iron ore prices [6]

2026 年 1 月 7 日 生猪：仍存累库行为 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12980 | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 12850 | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12760 | -100 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11810 | 150 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 12255 | | 145 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | | 12940 | 140 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 ...

2026年01月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 硅铁：结算电价下移，价格偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：节后询价情绪浓厚，等待钢招落地 | 5 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12605 | | 797.0 | 7.5 | 0. 95% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 618. 77 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG: The January CP was set at a high level, leading to a night - session price increase. - Propylene: Spot supply - demand has tightened, with an expected rebound from the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For LPG futures, PG2601 closed at 4,195 yesterday with a 0.84% daily increase and 4,208 at night with a 0.31% increase; PG2602 closed at 4,097 yesterday with a 1.26% daily increase and 4,181 at night with a 2.05% increase. - For propylene futures, PL2601 closed at 6,010 yesterday with a 2.16% daily increase and 5,940 at night with a - 1.16% decrease [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - PG2601 had a trading volume of 1,634 yesterday, an increase of 709 from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,432, a decrease of 862 from the previous day. - PL2602 had a trading volume of 12,936 yesterday, an increase of 3635 from the previous day, and an open interest of 5,369, a decrease of 556 from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG01 contract was 355 yesterday, down from 390 the previous day. - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 285 yesterday, down from - 158 the previous day [1]. - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: - The PDH operating rate this week was 76.4%, up from 75.0% last week. - The MTBE operating rate was 68.0%, down from 68.9%. - The alkylation operating rate was 38.1%, up from 36.8% [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market News - Saudi Aramco set the January 2026 CP. Propane was set at 525 dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar/ton increase from the previous month; butane was set at 520 dollars/ton, a 35 - dollar/ton increase from the previous month. The estimated landed cost in RMB is about 4721 yuan/ton for propane and 4682 yuan/ton for butane [6]. - There are domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic LPG plant device maintenance plans, including details such as enterprise names, device capacities, maintenance start and end times [6][7].

LPG：短期供应偏紧，关注下行驱动兑现 丙烯：现货供需收紧，存止跌反弹预期 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2601 | 4,238 | 0.07% | 4,201 | -0.87% | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,080 | 0.10% | 4,084 | 0.10% | | | PL2601 | 5,994 | 0.49% | 5,964 | -0.50% | | | PL2602 | 5,769 | 0.09% | 5,764 | -0.09% | | | PL2603 | 5,793 | 0.36% | 5,794 | 0.02% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 2,292 | 1091 | 2,409 | -746 | | 持 仓&成 交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][6] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide-range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The open interest was 567,104 lots, up 13,387 lots. Spot prices were stable. The basis and spreads showed some minor changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The HC2605 contract closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. Spot prices had some minor changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed various changes. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, and news about furnace start-ups and shutdowns in some factories [13][14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 contracts decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable, with some minor changes [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

Report Title - LPG: Short-term Firmness, Long-term Pressure; Propylene: Spot Weakness [1][2] Market Data Futures Prices - PG2601 closed at 4,221 with a daily gain of 0.86% and a night session close of 4,235 with a 0.33% gain [2] - PG2602 closed at 4,082 with a 1.27% daily gain and a night session close of 4,088 with a 0.15% gain [2] - PL2601 closed at 5,890 with a -0.57% daily change and a night session close of 5,951 with a 1.04% gain [2] - PL2602 closed at 5,740 with a 1.76% daily gain and a night session close of 5,776 with a 0.63% gain [2] - PL2603 closed at 5,758 with a 2.24% daily gain and a night session close of 5,775 with a 0.30% gain [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2601 had a trading volume of 2,615, a decrease of 5,292 from the previous day, and an open interest of 3,696, a decrease of 1,319 [2] - PG2602 had a trading volume of 59,892, a decrease of 59,076, and an open interest of 71,590, a decrease of 3,268 [2] - PL2601 had a trading volume of 317, an increase of 97, and an open interest of 890, a decrease of 211 [2] - PL2602 had a trading volume of 6,682, a decrease of 4,091, and an open interest of 7,431, a decrease of 471 [2] - PL2603 had a trading volume of 24,928, a decrease of 244, and an open interest of 17,231, a decrease of 1,053 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG01 contract was 279, compared to 295 the previous day [2] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG01 contract was 379, compared to 375 the previous day [2] - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -185, compared to -114 the previous day [2] - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -40, compared to -74 the previous day [2] - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -65, compared to -99 the previous day [2] Industry Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.0%, up from 72.9% last week [2] - The MTBE operating rate was 68.9%, down from 69.8% [2] - The alkylation operating rate was 36.8%, down from 39.5% [2] Market Trends - LPG trend intensity is 0; propylene trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [6] Market News - On December 24, 2025, the January CP paper cargo for propane was $510/ton, up $1/ton from the previous day; butane was $501/ton, unchanged. The February CP paper cargo for propane was $505/ton, up $3/ton [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH plant maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting on May 12, 2023, and others with various start times and undetermined end times [8] - There are also domestic LPG plant maintenance plans, such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation) starting on January 3, 2025, and others with specific start and end times and loss volumes [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of the external market for LPG is relatively strong, and there are expectations of tightening supply, demand, and inventory for propylene, with short - term trends supported [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2601 closed at 4,280 with a 1.47% daily increase and 4,248 at night with a - 0.75% decrease; PG2602 closed at 4,125 with a 0.63% daily increase and 4,116 at night with a - 0.22% decrease. PL2601 closed at 5,886 with a - 0.67% daily decrease and 5,905 at night with a 0.32% increase; PL2602 closed at 5,682 with a - 0.58% daily decrease and 5,710 at night with a 0.49% increase; PL2603 closed at 5,647 with a - 0.84% daily decrease and 5,705 at night with a 1.03% increase [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: PG2601 had 7,697 trades with a decrease of 528 from the previous day and 7,902 positions with a decrease of 3,103; PG2602 had 78,902 trades with an increase of 32,400 and 85,491 positions with a decrease of 2,126. PL2601 had 301 trades with an increase of 89 and 1,177 positions with a decrease of 137; PL2602 had 21,615 trades with an increase of 9,143 and 7,813 positions with a decrease of 115; PL2603 had 42,432 trades with an increase of 15,708 and 18,456 positions with an increase of 533 [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG01 contract was 200 (previous day: 332); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG01 contract was 250 (previous day: 352); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 4 (previous day: - 11); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 39 (previous day: - 1); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 11 (previous day: - 51) [2] - **Key Industrial Data**: The PDH operating rate was 75.0% this week (previous week: 72.9%); the MTBE operating rate was 68.9% (previous: 69.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 36.8% (previous: 40.3%) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [6] 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Goods**: On December 20, 2025, the January CP paper goods for propane were 506 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 496 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton. The February CP paper goods for propane were 500 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton from the previous day [7] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plan**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans starting from 2023 to 2025, with some end - times undetermined [8] - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plan**: Factories such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), Shenchi Chemical, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou have full - plant maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026, with different loss volumes and durations [9]

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽度震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块与基本面共振，走势震荡偏强 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪交织博弈，走势宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 781.5 | 1.5 | 0. 19% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) ...