Research Views - The A-share market fluctuated and declined, with the Wind All A index down 0.1% and a trading volume of 1.24 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices also declined. The market is affected by the Israel-Iran conflict and potential policy changes in June [1]. - The performance of Chinese assets has been strong since June, with both stocks and bonds rising. Factors include the resumption of Sino-US communication, potential changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum [1]. - The recent PPI data shows that China's inflation level remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may turn into a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation". The consumer and technology sectors may still be dominant in the market style [1]. - In terms of corporate earnings, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, but it is still lower than the policy interest rate. The net profit has increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the stage of bottoming out [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts up 0.24%, 0.14%, 0.15%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 1973 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with the interest rate remaining stable at 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 1833 billion yuan [1][2]. - The bond market strengthened slightly due to the loosening of the capital market, but the economy shows strong resilience under the influence of the "rush to export" effect and stable growth policies. The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,680.8 | 2,678.4 | 2.4 | 0.09% | | IF | 3,868.6 | 3,869.8 | -1.2 | -0.03% | | IC | 5,748.4 | 5,756.2 | -7.8 | -0.14% | | IM | 6,130.0 | 6,127.4 | 2.6 | 0.04% | Stock Indices | Index | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,684.0 | 2,685.0 | -1.1 | -0.04% | | CSI 300 | 3,870.4 | 3,873.8 | -3.4 | -0.09% | | CSI 500 | 5,750.9 | 5,767.8 | -16.9 | -0.29% | | CSI 1000 | 6,141.5 | 6,147.5 | -6.0 | -0.10% | Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.54 | 102.47 | 0.074 | 0.07% | | TF | 106.30 | 106.15 | 0.155 | 0.15% | | T | 109.16 | 109.02 | 0.145 | 0.13% | | TL | 120.82 | 120.52 | 0.3 | 0.25% | Market News - The Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term review of its bond purchase program in June next year and will slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases due to concerns about market volatility [5]. - The Bank of Japan believes that inflation expectations are not yet stable and that there are two-way risks to prices. Trade policy is highly uncertain, and tariff issues may affect next year's spring wage negotiations [6]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of these contracts [8][9][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [15][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates, currency indices, and cross - currency exchange rates [22][23][26].

Group 1: Consumption Growth and Policies - In May 2025, retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.85%[1] - The government has prioritized "restoring and expanding consumption" as a key task for 2025, with over 20 specific measures introduced to stimulate consumption[1] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy for consumer goods has been expanded, with the subsidy amount increasing from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025[2] Group 2: Impact of Subsidy Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales of five major categories of consumer goods to reach 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers by the end of May 2025[2] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year increase of over 30%, indicating strong demand driven by the subsidy policies[5] - The tourism sector experienced a record high during the Dragon Boat Festival, with 119 million domestic trips and total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year[10] Group 3: Long-term Consumer Confidence Challenges - Despite short-term stimulus effects, consumer willingness remains low, with only 24.9% of residents inclined to spend more, while 61.4% prefer to save[15] - Structural issues such as housing, education, and healthcare costs continue to suppress consumer spending, necessitating deeper policy interventions[15] - To enhance long-term consumption capacity, policies must focus on stabilizing income expectations and reducing rigid expenditure pressures[19] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The government aims to improve income distribution and social security systems to stabilize residents' income expectations and strengthen consumption capacity[23] - Enhancements to vacation policies are essential for activating long-term service consumption potential, with new regulations increasing holiday days starting January 1, 2025[20] - Coordinated policy measures are necessary to create a sustainable consumption environment, moving beyond short-term incentives to long-term structural improvements[23]

Economic Performance Overview - In May, the national economy demonstrated stable growth with industrial added value increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, while the cumulative growth from January to May reached 6.3% [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) amounted to 191,947 billion yuan from January to May, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year growth, with a notable 7.7% increase when excluding real estate development investment [1] Economic Characteristics - The economy exhibited five key characteristics: stable growth supported by policy measures, steady operation with a decreasing unemployment rate, continuous improvement in domestic demand and production supply, accumulation of new growth drivers in high-end manufacturing and digital economy, and resilience in the face of external challenges [2][3] - The overall economic performance in May was characterized by strong resilience and vitality, with macro policies working in coordination to support stability [3] Price and Real Estate Market - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline year-on-year, influenced by international factors and falling food prices, while the core CPI's growth rate steadily expanded [4] - The real estate market remained stable, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 major cities and a continuous reduction in inventory [4] Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumption growth in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as trade-in programs and national subsidies, with retail sales reaching their highest level of the year [6] - Key categories such as home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant sales increases, indicating the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies [6] Future Outlook - The economic fundamentals remain strong, with expectations for continued monetary easing and fiscal support for consumption and real estate markets [5][6] - The focus will be on enhancing domestic demand and structural reforms to ensure stable economic growth amid external uncertainties [3]

Economic Performance - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up from 5.1% in April, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[2] - The growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation and April's figure of 4.0%[3] - Industrial production growth declined to 5.8% in May from 6.1% in April, also below the expected 6.0%[7] Consumer Trends - The sales growth of communication equipment surged to 33.0% in May, up from 19.9% in April, while home appliance sales jumped to 53.0% from 38.8%[2] - Restaurant consumption growth rose to 5.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from April[2] - The consumer price index (CPI) remained negative at -0.1% for the fourth consecutive month, indicating low inflation[8] Investment and Housing Market - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year in May, worsening from the previous month's decline of 10.3%[3] - The average price of new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.22% month-on-month in May, compared to a decline of 0.12% in April[6] - The sales area of commercial housing in early June dropped by 9.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing market[8] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to introduce fiscal support of 0.5-1.0 trillion yuan (approximately 0.35%-0.7% of GDP) by September, given the current economic conditions[1] - A potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points and interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points are anticipated in the second half of the year[1]

Market Performance Review - The liquor sector underperformed compared to the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 2.82% during the week from May 19 to May 23 [1][2] - Other beverage categories, such as beer and soft drinks, showed positive growth, with increases of 0.98% and 1.97% respectively [1][3] Regulatory Impact - The newly revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste in Party and Government Organs" specifies that alcoholic beverages are not allowed during work meals, which has limited impact on the liquor sector as the proportion of government consumption in overall liquor sales is already low [1][2] Young Consumer Strategy - Major liquor companies like Moutai, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are focusing on strategies to attract younger consumers, which is seen as a short-term demand growth direction and a long-term measure to prevent a consumption gap in the liquor market [1][2] Shareholder Confidence - Guizhou Moutai held a shareholder meeting emphasizing confidence in the company's quality, culture, innovation capabilities, and service awareness, reflecting the leadership's determination [2] Upcoming Catalysts - With the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, attention is drawn to indicators such as payment collection and price performance from liquor companies that could act as catalysts for the sector [1][2] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Shenwan liquor index is 19.52X, which is considered relatively low at 11.85% compared to the past decade, suggesting potential for valuation recovery with the introduction of consumer stimulus policies [2] Other Food and Beverage Trends - The pre-processed food sector showed positive performance, with specific stocks like Haitian Flavor Industry benefiting from H-share issuance, indicating a favorable outlook [4] - The beverage sector is expected to improve as warmer weather approaches and consumer promotion policies are implemented, which may enhance demand in the restaurant and nightlife sectors [3]

啤酒行业在2024年经历深度调整周期：前三个季度持续承受需求收缩压力(春节后及7-8月两次需求冷却 周期)，叠加极端天气扰动旺季销售，渠道去杠杆化形成"需求-库存-资金"三重压力，2024年二至三季度 进入行业低谷。转机始于2024年三季度末，政策拐点显现，消费券精准投放与居民收入预期改善促使餐 饮渠道闭店率边际企稳。龙头企业通过资产负债表修复(24H2行业库存水位降至历史低位)与经营策略前 瞻性调整(渠道结构向非现饮转型加速，数字化零售布局深化)，成功构建新增长极。 食品饮料ETF(515170)跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高壁 垒、强韧性板块，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。相较于其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低 投资门槛，食品饮料ETF是小资金参与板块投资的便捷工具。(联接A类：013125；联接C类：013126) 2025年一季报量价齐升态势验证行业复苏拐点确认，啤酒板块步入周期性上行通道。收入端，25Q1啤 酒板块收入201.5亿元，同比+3.7%，环比继续改善；利润端，25Q1啤酒板块归母净利25.3亿元，同比 +10.9%，增速环比提升。成本下行、销 ...

纺织服装行业：2024 及 2025Q1 业绩承压， 未来愈加明朗 2025 年 5 月 19 日 看好/维持 纺织服装 行业报告 | 分析师 | 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 沈逸伦 电话：010-66554044 邮箱：shenyl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480523060001 | 投资摘要： 2024 年纺织逐季走弱，服装整体承压。纺织制造板块 2024 年收入 1181 亿元，同比+8.37%，归母净利润 92.91 亿元，同比 +8.6%，其中 Q4 单季度板块收入 285 亿元，同比+2.29%；归母净利润 17.17 亿元，同比-10.80%，24 年是逐季度走弱的情 况，主要系外需走弱。服装家纺板块 2024 年收入约 1528 亿元，同比-2.2%，利润 101.3 亿元，同比-29.95%。其中 Q4 单 季度板块收入 466.9 亿元，同比-2.9%，归母净利润 5.6 亿元，同比-80%。整体上 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since the second quarter of 2024, the revenue growth of listed liquor companies has significantly slowed down due to weak industry consumption demand, alongside increased competition and diminished scale effects impacting profitability [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall sales volume of the liquor industry during the Spring Festival has shown a certain degree of narrowing in the year-on-year decline [1] - If future demand stabilizes gradually, considering the base effect in 2024, it is expected that the performance of liquor companies may improve starting from the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - Leading liquor companies are continuously enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend rates, share buybacks, and stock purchases, thereby increasing investment safety margins [1] - Anticipation of forthcoming consumption stimulus policies and expectations of continued macroeconomic recovery support the recommendation to maintain allocations in leading liquor enterprises [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Overall consumer demand remains stable in Q1 2025, with a recommendation to pay attention to subsequent national consumption stimulus policies [4] - The beauty and personal care sector showed a mixed performance, with the personal care segment performing the best [9][10] - The textile and apparel sector maintained stable growth, with outdoor brands performing well [18][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Beauty and Personal Care Sector - In Q1 2025, the retail sales of cosmetics in China grew by 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the overall consumer goods retail sales growth of 4.6% [5][6] - The beauty sector's revenue and net profit reached 13.5 billion and 1.89 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.2% and -12.3% [9][10] - The cosmetics segment saw a revenue of 9.62 billion, down 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.06 billion, down 20.7% [10] - The medical beauty segment's revenue was 2.43 billion, down 0.2%, with a net profit of 0.71 billion, down 0.5% [10] - The personal care segment achieved a revenue of 1.45 billion, up 29.4%, and a net profit of 0.13 billion, up 12.6% [10] Textile and Apparel Sector - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles grew by 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, below the overall consumer goods retail sales growth of 4.6% [13][18] - The textile and apparel sector's revenue and net profit saw year-on-year changes of +1.66% and -10.72% respectively [18] - The OEM segment's revenue grew by 13.02% year-on-year, while the brand segment's revenue decreased by 3.90% [19][21] - The home textile segment's revenue decreased by 3.98% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 12.35% [21]

Summary of the Conference Call for Yuehai Investment Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Yuehai Investment, focusing on its financial performance and strategic outlook for 2025. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Yuehai Investment reported a loss of 17 million due to the impact of the distribution of Yuehai Zhidi, but future financial conditions are expected to improve as the company will no longer bear related financial impacts [2][4]. - The company's pre-tax profit increased by 2% and shareholder profit rose by 2.5%, despite a slight revenue decline of less than 1% [3]. Investment Property Valuation - The value of investment properties decreased by 10 million in Q1 2025, a smaller decline compared to 21 million in the same period last year, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [2][5]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Costs - The company has been actively reducing capital expenditures and financial costs, with Q1 financial expenses decreasing by 77 million. It is anticipated that expenses will continue to decline throughout the year [2][6]. - Capital expenditure is planned to be 1.9 billion for 2024 and controlled within 2 billion for 2025, prioritizing debt repayment and dividends [2][8]. Water Pricing Adjustments - Water pricing adjustments are proceeding normally, with no significant impact on business operations. The company is actively pursuing favorable outcomes for water pricing negotiations at the Guangzhou Nansha Water Plant [2][7]. Revenue Trends - Water supply revenue in Shenzhen and Dongguan declined primarily due to a decrease in the RMB exchange rate and reduced water supply volumes. In contrast, Hong Kong saw a slight increase in supply volume, but the fee increase was limited [2][11]. Cash Flow and Business Segments - Operating cash flow is predominantly derived from the Chinese water business, accounting for approximately 80% of total cash inflow, although trade war pressures have affected high-end consumer segments [2][13][14]. - The mid-to-low-end market is performing relatively well, while high-end consumption is under pressure [2][15]. Debt Structure and Dividend Strategy - The company maintains a 65% dividend payout ratio and aims to reduce HKD-denominated debt, which currently constitutes a small percentage of total debt [2][22][23]. Future Outlook and Strategic Plans - The company is exploring acquisition opportunities for water assets but is selective, focusing on high-return projects [2][12]. - There are no immediate plans for significant new capital projects, with a focus on completing existing water projects [2][10]. Market Challenges - The company faces challenges in the high-end market due to economic pressures, while the mid-to-low-end market has growth limitations [2][19][20]. - The decline in rental rates for high-end commercial properties is attributed to reduced demand from high-end tenants [2][17]. Impact of External Factors - The decrease in electricity prices in Guangdong is a concern for the company's power generation assets, and there is a willingness to consider divesting these assets if suitable buyers are found [2][25]. Additional Important Information - The company has been preparing for future contract renewals and has gradually reduced investments in non-East River water projects over the past few years [2][24]. - The overall performance in Q1 2025 was stable, with clear impacts from external factors [2][26].