Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of biodiesel can support vegetable oils in the long - term, and a strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended. Short - term price trends of various agricultural products are affected by weather, policies, and trade news [3][4] - Supply and demand of the domestic corn market have no major contradictions currently, and attention should be paid to the phased supply in the circulation link [7] - The overall supply of the live hog industry in the later period is abundant, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term [8] - Egg prices have not reached the bottom of the cycle in the long - term, and the rebound strength of spot prices should be monitored [9] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybeans continue to rebound. There is a risk of short - term waterlogging in some areas, and the policy procurement auction had zero transactions this week. For U.S. soybeans, there are risks of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the central and southern production areas in the next 6 - 10 days [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of July 15, about 7% of U.S. soybean production areas were affected by drought. The overall price of U.S. agricultural products rose, driving the continuous rebound of Dalian soybean meal. In China, the spot price of soybean meal increased, the oil mill operating rate remained high, and inventory continued to increase [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The palm oil contract rose strongly, and soybean oil followed. Indonesia is studying the B50 biodiesel plan, and the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Indonesian products. In the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products generally rose. Canadian rapeseed futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The Sino - Australian rapeseed trade has limited impact on near - month supply and demand. There is still room for a short - term rebound in domestic rapeseed products [6] Corn - Dalian corn rebounded with increased positions. The auction of imported U.S. corn had a low transaction rate, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The supply of Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased. Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog 09 contract rose slightly. The spot price continued to decline, and the supply was accelerating. The overall supply in the later period is abundant, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs increased, and the futures market had intense long - short competition. Due to high production capacity, off - season contracts are under pressure, while peak - season contracts are relatively supported [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The US - Indonesia trade agreement reduced the soybean tariff from 32% to 19%, with Indonesia planning to purchase $4.5 billion worth of US agricultural products. There were also sales of US soybeans to unknown destinations, and the US soybean biodiesel policy supported prices. However, the domestic supply - side pressure limited the upside, and the domestic continuous meal was expected to maintain a strong and volatile short - term trend [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of oils was strong. The MPOB report was neutral - bearish, but high - frequency data showed a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. Indian imports changed significantly, with a 60% month - on - month increase in palm oil imports in June. With strong demand, palm oil prices were expected to be supported, and the overall oil market was expected to remain in a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties had different changes. For example, the closing price of soybean oil futures was 8072, up 30 with a 0.37% increase; palm oil was 8796, up 74 with a 0.85% increase; and rapeseed oil was 9440, down 30 with a - 3.15% decrease. There were also changes in spreads and price - ratio spreads [2]. - **International Futures**: In the international futures market, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4158 ringgit/ton, up 49 with a 1.19% increase; CBOT soybeans were 1027 cents/bushel, up 8 with a 0.74% increase; CBOT US soybean oil was 56 cents/pound, up 1 with a 2.71% increase; and CBOT US soybean meal was 284 dollars/ton, up 1 with a 0.21% increase [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices also had different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 8230, with a 0.00% change; Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 8240, with a 0.24% increase; and the spot price of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil was 8870, with a 0.00% change [2]. - **Spot Spreads and Basis**: There were corresponding changes in spot spreads and basis. For example, the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remained at - 570, and the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 158 [2]. Industry Information - **Palm Oil Industry**: Indonesia increased the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio from 35% to 40%. Malaysia's August reference price for crude palm oil was significantly higher than that in July, and the export tax increased from 8.5% to 9% [3]. - **Protein Meal Industry**: The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement to reduce the soybean tariff, and Indonesia planned to purchase $4.5 billion worth of US agricultural products, which boosted the market's confidence in US soybean exports [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are mainly in a range - bound consolidation trend, dragged down by the negative factors of increasing production and decreasing exports. The domestic continuous palm oil futures are expected to be bullish in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 8,800 yuan resistance [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The market continues to digest the positive news of biodiesel. The short - term positive news of biodiesel continues to boost the CBOT soybean oil market. The domestic spot price rises with the market, but the basis quotation is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Meal**: The expectation of US soybean exports is improving, but the new - crop excellent rate exceeds market expectations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is in a low - level shock. The short - term soybean meal may have further upward space, and it is advisable to operate cautiously and bullishly [3]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig spot market is running weakly. The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. The 09 contract has accumulated upward pressure, and it is advisable to operate bearishly when the price is high [5]. - **Corn**: The short - term market's weak sentiment has not been fully alleviated, and the futures price remains weak. In the medium - term, the supply of corn is tight, and the third - quarter supply - demand situation supports the corn price. Attention should be paid to the scale of subsequent auctions [7]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, and the raw sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and it is advisable to have a bearish view after a rebound, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan [10]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate in a moderately bullish range. In the long - term, the cotton price will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the demand may gradually improve. The egg price is expected to rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On July 17, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,290 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8,072 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.37%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil remained unchanged at 8,770 yuan, while the futures price of P2509 was 8,796 yuan, up 74 yuan or 0.85%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil remained unchanged at 6,000 yuan, and the futures price of O1509 was 9,440 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.32% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The three - oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) remained unchanged at 42 yuan; the palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 20 yuan, up 2 yuan or 11.11%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 66 yuan, down 6 yuan or - 8.33%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 480 yuan, up 30 yuan or 5.88%; the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread was - 724 yuan, down 44 yuan or - 6.47% [1]. 2. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2,860 yuan, up 40 yuan or 1.42% from the previous day; the futures price of M2509 is 3,029 yuan, up 52 yuan or 1.75%. The basis of M2509 is - 169 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 7.64% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2,610 yuan, up 50 yuan or 1.95%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,653 yuan, up 66 yuan or 2.49%. The basis of RM2509 is - 109 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 17.20% [3]. 3. Live Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract is 390 yuan, down 200 yuan or - 33.90% from the previous day; the price of the live pig 2511 contract is 13,535 yuan, up 45 yuan or 0.33%; the price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,060 yuan, up 50 yuan or 0.36%. The 9 - 11 spread is 525 yuan, up 5 yuan or 0.96% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,450 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Shandong is 14,600 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13,700 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Liaoning is 14,250 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price in Guangdong is 15,840 yuan, down 300 yuan; the price in Hunan is 14,060 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Hebei is 14,500 yuan, down 100 yuan [5]. 4. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2509 contract is 2,296 yuan, up 3 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.43%. The basis is 44 yuan, down 13 yuan or - 22.81% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2509 contract is 2,646 yuan, up 1 yuan or 0.27%. The basis is 34 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 17.07% [7]. 5. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract is 5,655 yuan, up 19 yuan or 0.34%; the price of the sugar 2509 contract is 5,828 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.34%. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.75 cents per pound, up 0.20 cents or 1.21% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5,905 yuan, up 25 yuan or 0.43%. The Nanning basis is 222 yuan, down 20 yuan or - 8.26%; the Kunming basis is 77 yuan, up 5 yuan or 6.94% [10]. 6. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2509 contract is 14,250 yuan, up 260 yuan or 1.86%; the price of the cotton 2601 contract is 13,960 yuan, up 95 yuan or 0.69%. The ICE US cotton main contract is 68.84 cents per pound, up 0.28 cents or 0.41% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15,316 yuan, up 101 yuan or 0.66%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15,354 yuan, up 82 yuan or 0.54% [12]. 7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3,595 yuan per 500 kg, up 4 yuan or 0.11%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3,462 yuan per 500 kg, up 8 yuan or 0.23%. The basis is - 738 yuan per 500 kg, up 124 yuan or 14.36% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.86 yuan per jin, up 0.13 yuan or 4.68% [13].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not contain information about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increases, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts do not significantly affect capacity fluctuations [2] - On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declines significantly, but prices gradually recover. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been adjusted down, and demand weakens marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to end the decline in overall production as profits stabilize, and cell manufacturers also have production cut plans [2] - Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increase last week gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level [2] - Polysilicon continues to rise today, with the overall open interest starting to decline and trading volume slowing down. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,945 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 475 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 71,783 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,962 lots; the price difference between August - September polysilicon is 350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 34,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 575 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 705 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 US dollars/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Polysilicon production is 95,000 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 161 tons; the spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg per week, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton per month, a month - on - month decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Solar cell production is 7.0569 million kilowatts per month, a month - on - month decrease of 135,900 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 units per month, a month - on - month increase of 19,610,660 units; the import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 units per month, a month - on - month decrease of 8,021,950 units; the average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars per unit, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 US dollars per unit [2] 3.6 Industry News - Qingdao aims to build a 10 - million - kilowatt - level offshore new energy base by 2030, including developing offshore wind power and photovoltaic projects and promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry [2] - At the State Council Information Office press conference, it was mentioned that consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2]

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. There is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a potential market wave in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year, but the actual subsequent slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the live inventory continues to be postponed. The pressure on the upper side of the 09 contract is accumulating. Pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan/ton and operate with a short - bias when the price is high [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract price increased by 8.43% to 450 yuan/ton, the "pig 2511" contract rose 0.11% to 13,620 yuan/ton, and the "pig 2509" contract fell 0.25% to 14,250 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 7.35%. The main contract positions decreased by 2.17%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, while those in Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Hunan, and Hebei decreased slightly. The sample point slaughter volume increased by 0.84%, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.20%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.30%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34%. The monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [2]. Group 2: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have pulled back from high levels, with limited rebound space and the risk of further decline after the rebound. Domestic palm oil still has the pressure to weaken and adjust, and it is expected to seek support at 8,500 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, the market's digestion of the US sanctions on Russia has put pressure on crude oil, dragging down the vegetable oil market. CBOT soybean oil has maintained a narrow - range shock adjustment. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be high in July - August, but the market's attention has shifted to the limited imports in the fourth quarter, and there will be positive factors in August [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.36%, the futures price of Y2509 increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 5.08%. For palm oil, the current price in Guangdong decreased by 0.34%, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.46%, and the basis changed significantly. For rapeseed oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, the futures price of Ol209 increased by 0.21%, and the basis increased by 43.10%. There were also changes in cross - period spreads and price differences between different oils [4]. Group 3: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 15, the transaction volume of imported corn auctions reached a new low. With the depletion of remaining grain, traders are more likely to support prices, and the overall price is stable with partial rebounds. The downstream deep - processing industry is in the seasonal maintenance period, and the demand from the breeding end is mainly for rigid replenishment. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn and the increase in breeding consumption will support the corn price. In the short term, the weak market sentiment is gradually being released, and the corn price is stabilizing, with the futures market remaining volatile. Attention should be paid to the scale and transaction of subsequent auctions [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the "corn 2509" contract decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.58%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.81%, and the import profit decreased by 2.83%. For corn starch, the price of the "corn starch 2509" contract decreased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 11.32%. The positions of both increased, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on the price of raw sugar, which is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in future imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias strategy after the price rebounds, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The price of the "sugar 2601" contract decreased by 0.07%, the "sugar 2509" contract decreased by 0.26%, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 1.53%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.18%. The main contract positions decreased by 3.20%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12%, and the effective forecast decreased by 100% [8]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, while that in Kunming increased by 0.43%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased, and the price difference with Nanning also decreased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 23.07%, the cumulative national sales rate increased by 9.70%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [8]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry has intensified, with the downstream profits, cash flow deteriorating, and the开机 rate decreasing while the finished - product inventory increasing. However, the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is listed is difficult to resolve, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately strong range, while it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market Prices**: The price of the "cotton 2509" contract decreased by 0.18%, the "cotton 2601" contract increased by 0.04%, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.68%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50%. The main contract positions decreased by 1.98%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.93%, and the effective forecast increased by 3.24% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price, CC Index, and FC Index all increased to varying degrees. Some price differences also changed [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9%, the import volume decreased by 33.3%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.9%. The yarn inventory days increased by 14.1%, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 3.2%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the clothing and textile retail sales increased by 4.0% [9]. Group 6: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The excellent rate of US soybeans exceeds market expectations, and the market is worried about the impact of tariffs. The futures market remains at the bottom. The Brazilian soybean premium is continuously rising, and the Brazilian soybeans are relatively strong. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continue to rise, the开机 rate remains high, and the basis fluctuates at a low level. Although the subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, and the basis decline space is limited. The soybean meal main contract has returned above the 20 - day moving average, and with the stabilization of US soybeans and the increase in premiums, the domestic futures market may have further upward space. It is recommended to operate with a cautious long - bias [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.47%, and the basis increased by 8.64%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39%, the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 0.15%, and the basis increased by 12.84%. For soybeans, the spot price in Harbin remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract increased by 0.44%, and the basis decreased by 10.53%. The basis of the soybean - two main contract increased by 39.13% [11]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The soybean meal cross - period spread decreased by 27.59%, the rapeseed meal cross - period spread decreased by 3.38%, the oil - meal ratio increased slightly, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased [11].

Report Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various agricultural products are as follows: soybean has a certain rating (not clearly defined in a general way), soybean oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn are rated with a certain star indication; live pigs are rated ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a bearish trend); eggs are rated ★★★ (indicating a more distinct bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, considering factors such as weather, policies, supply - demand relationships, and trade situations, and provides corresponding market trend judgments and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The price of domestic soybean futures fluctuates slightly, and the spot price is stable. Short - term weather is favorable for soybean crops in the main producing areas. There were two - way trading on the policy side this week with good trading results. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of July 8, about 9% of the US soybean main producing areas were affected by drought. Future rainfall in the US soybean producing areas is expected to be above normal and temperatures slightly below normal, which is beneficial for crop growth. The domestic oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains high, and soybean meal inventory is rising. Brazilian soybean premium has increased significantly, and the procurement progress of domestic oil mills for September shipments has reached 70%. The Dalian soybean meal market is currently in a volatile state [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are strong, hitting a phased high, and soybean oil rebounds accordingly. This is mainly due to macro - economic expectations. Short - term attention should be paid to the weather in European and Black Sea sunflower seed producing areas. In the long term, the development of biodiesel supports vegetable oil prices, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - European rapeseed futures prices have stabilized after approaching the annual low. Canadian rapeseed prices are stronger than the European market due to changeable weather. The demand for Canadian rapeseed depends on trade negotiations. The net long position of funds in Canadian rapeseed is at a historical high. The domestic rapeseed meal market is in the peak demand season, but the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to rapeseed meal consumption. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is expected to be volatile [6] Corn - As of July 8, about 12% of the US corn main producing areas were affected by drought. The US corn may continue to look for a bottom. The Dalian corn futures are mainly in a weak and volatile state. The increase in supply in the circulation link has a great impact on the market, and the futures may continue to be weak and volatile [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have a small decline with reduced positions, and the spot price continues to fall. The basis between spot and futures has narrowed significantly, and the upward momentum of the futures is insufficient. The industry supply is abundant in the later period, and there is downward pressure on prices in the medium term. The industry can participate in short - selling hedging [8] Eggs - The egg futures prices fluctuate narrowly with reduced positions. Some far - month contracts rebound today. The spot price has increased in some provinces. The current spot market is at the turning point between the off - season and peak season, but the late - coming Mid - Autumn Festival this year may affect the price rise rhythm. The futures positions are at a high level, and there is a risk of increased volatility at the turning point. The long - term egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

Report 1: Oil and Fat Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report, the bullish factors are realized. There is a risk of a new round of decline after the end of the current uptrend in crude palm oil futures due to concerns about production growth in July. Long - term, there is a risk of falling below 4,000 ringgit and continuing to weaken. In the domestic market, after a sharp rise, Dalian palm oil futures may face short - term resistance around 8,650 yuan, and it is advisable to closely monitor whether it can effectively stop falling around 8,500 yuan. - Soybean oil: The CBOT soybean oil market is currently less affected by its own fundamentals. The previous biodiesel theme has been digested by the market. At present, the market is mainly affected by the rise of new - crop soybeans in the US and trade relations. In the short term, the fluctuation range of CBOT soybean oil is small, and the narrow - range shock adjustment pattern will continue. In the domestic market, the overstocked oil mills force traders to lower the basis for sales contracts, which has a certain drag on the spot basis quotation. However, due to the expected limited soybean imports in the fourth quarter, the possibility of a significant downward adjustment of the basis quotation is not large. [1] 3. Data Summary - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,170 yuan on July 9, up 40 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,920 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 0.33%; the basis of Y2509 was 250 yuan, up 35.87%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 137 to 22,826, a decrease of 0.60%. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan on July 9, up 120 yuan or 1.75%; the futures price of P2509 was 8,678 yuan, up 34 yuan or 0.39%; the basis of P2509 was 22 yuan, up 123.40%; the warehouse receipts increased by 184 to 854, an increase of 27.46%. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan on July 9, up 50 yuan or 0.52%; the futures price of OI509 was 9,510 yuan, down 88 yuan or - 0.92%; the basis of OI509 was 170 yuan, up 431.25%; the warehouse receipts increased by 301 to 3,021. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 2 to 4, a decrease of 33.33%; the palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 18 to 32, an increase of 128.57%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 6 to 60, an increase of 11.11%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 110 to - 530, a decrease of 26.19%; the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 60 to - 758, a decrease of 8.60%. [1] Report 2: Corn and Corn Starch Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View In the short term, due to the continuous import corn auctions, the market sentiment is bearish, and the spot and futures prices are weak. As the remaining grain is consumed, traders are reluctant to sell, and the decline of corn prices slows down. Downstream deep - processing has maintenance plans and purchases on demand; the breeding end purchases as needed and mainly replenishes inventory on a rigid basis. The overall demand is supported by breeding consumption. On the substitution side, wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - protection policy, the wheat - corn price spread narrows, and the feed substitution increases, limiting the rise of corn. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn, low imports, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward movement of corn in the third quarter. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is gradually digested, the decline of corn is limited due to the tight remaining grain, the market fluctuates narrowly, and it is advisable to pay attention to subsequent policy releases and temporarily stay on the sidelines. [3] 3. Data Summary - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2509 was 2,319 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.09%; the basis was 41 yuan, up 5.13%; the north - south trade profit was - 1 yuan, down 20 yuan or - 105.26%; the import profit was 554 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 1.84%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing in the morning was 173, down 40 or - 18.78%; the open interest increased by 25,610 to 1,604,832, an increase of 1.62%; the warehouse receipts increased by 287 to 202,489, an increase of 0.14%. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,677 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04%; the basis was 23 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 4.17%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 to 57, an increase of 16.33%; the starch - corn spread on the disk increased by 3 to 358, an increase of 0.85%. The open interest increased by 10,948 to 298,266, an increase of 3.81%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 101 to 22,821, a decrease of 0.44%. [3] Report 3: Sugar Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View In the first half of June, Brazil's sugar production was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 696,000 tons or 22.12%. Brazil's increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline supports the raw sugar price. However, the global supply is becoming looser, which puts pressure on raw sugar, and the rebound height is limited. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The market demand is weak, the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi, the continuous decline of raw sugar, the expansion of import processing profits, and the loosening of processed sugar quotes put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in imports later, the overall domestic supply - demand is marginally looser, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. [7][8] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,606 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 0.30%; the futures price of sugar 2509 was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 0.56%; the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.54 cents/pound, up 0.39 cents or 2.41%. The 1 - 9 spread was - 173 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or - 9.49%; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 7,728 to 287,247, a decrease of 2.62%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 105 to 22,987, a decrease of 0.45%. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.33%; the spot price in Kunming was 6,365 yuan/ton, up 485 yuan or 8.25%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4,457 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 0.67%; the import price of Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) was 5,662 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or - 0.68%. - **Industry situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, up 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, up 1.521 million tons or 23.07%; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 6.465 million tons, up 283,600 tons or 4.59%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 510,000 tons, down 17,200 tons or - 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate was 72.59%, up 6.42 percentage points or 9.70%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points or 8.11%. The national industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 322,100 tons or - 9.56%. [7] Report 4: Cotton Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The downstream of the cotton industry remains weak, the overall demand is weak, the operating rate of textile enterprises continues to decline, and the finished - product inventory is accumulating. However, the inventory pressure is not large. The profit of textile enterprises has deteriorated from April to May, and there is no obvious continuous upward - driving force in the industrial fundamentals. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in the main production areas in Xinjiang and the downstream demand of the industry. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a higher range than before the rise in late June. If the downstream remains weak, there is still a risk of decline. [10] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan or 0.33%; the futures price of cotton 2601 was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.18%; the ICE US cotton main contract was 67.72 cents/pound, up 0.40 cents or 0.59%. The 9 - 1 spread was 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 80.00%; the open interest of the main contract increased by 3,542 to 546,763, an increase of 0.65%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 16 to 9,932, a decrease of 0.39%. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,163 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.08%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.06%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,545 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan or - 0.64%. - **Industry situation**: The commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, down 29.71 million tons or - 9.5%; the industrial inventory was 90.30 million tons, down 2.71 million tons or - 2.9%; the import volume was 4 million tons, down 2 million tons or - 33.3%; the bonded - area inventory was 33.60 million tons, down 3.30 million tons or - 8.9%. The yarn inventory days were 27.23 days, up 3.37 days or 14.1%; the grey - cloth inventory days were 36.61 days, up 1.15 days or 3.2%. The cotton shipment volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 million tons, up 8.86 million tons or 22.6%. [10] Report 5: Meal and Soybean Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and market concerns about US tariffs keep the market at the bottom. The premiums of Brazilian soybeans for August and September shipments have slightly declined recently. As the time window for the arrival of US soybeans approaches, the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal continues to rise, the operating rate improves, and there is no significant inventory pressure on soybean meal, and the basis is relatively stable. However, the subsequent supply is expected to be high, and the terminal trading is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of demand. The trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, and the market is bottom - grinding in the short term. [12] 3. Data Summary - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,800 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2,947 yuan, up 12 yuan or 0.41%; the basis of M2509 was - 147 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 8.89%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for September shipments was 37 yuan, up 4 yuan or 12.1%; the warehouse receipts were 42,250, unchanged. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,480 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 10 yuan or 0.39%; the basis of RM2509 was - 106 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 10.42%. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for November shipments was 155 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 34.32%; the warehouse receipts were 15,663, down 136 or - 0.86%. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 1 contract was 4,111 yuan, up 7 yuan or 0.17%; the basis of the main soybean No. 1 contract was - 151 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 4.86%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 3,582 yuan, unchanged; the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 78 yuan, unchanged. [12] Report 6: Pig Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The spot price of pigs fluctuates. Recently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is limited, the slaughter volume increases slightly, the market demand is weak, the price is stable and weak, and the market lacks upward - driving force. Currently, the breeding profit has returned to a low level, the market is cautious about capacity expansion, and there is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a wave of market conditions in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the live - pig inventory continues to be postponed, and the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan. [15][16] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The main - contract basis was - 185 yuan/ton, down 960 yuan or - 123.87%; the futures price of pig 2511 was 13,600 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or - 0.62%; the futures price of pig 2509 was 14,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.07%. The 9 - 11 spread was 665 yuan, up 75 yuan or 12.71%; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1,328 to 71,740, a decrease of 1.82%; the warehouse receipts were 447, unchanged. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Henan was 14,080 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,170 yuan/ton, down 1,030 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 14,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price in Liaoning was 14,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Guangdong was 16,590 yuan/ton, unchanged

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil futures may face a new round of decline after the end of the current rally, with long - term risks of falling below 4000 ringgit. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures may encounter short - term resistance around 8650 yuan and should be watched for effective support around 8500 yuan. - CBOT soybean oil is mainly affected by the price trend of new - crop US soybeans and trade relations. Domestically, the spot basis is dragged down by the oil mill's full inventory, but the possibility of a large - scale reduction in the basis is low due to the expected limited soybean imports in the fourth quarter [1]. Corn - In the short term, the market sentiment is gradually digested. Corn's decline is limited due to the tight supply of remaining grain, and the futures price will fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see the subsequent policy release [3]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. Although the low inventory in Guangxi supports the spot price, considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic sugar market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [8]. Cotton - The downstream cotton industry remains weak, and the overall demand is insufficient. The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate in a higher range than in mid - June. However, if the downstream situation continues to deteriorate, there is a risk of price decline [10]. Meal - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the soybean meal basis is stable. However, with a high volume of arrivals expected, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The soybean meal futures price is currently in the bottom - grinding stage [12]. Livestock (Pigs) - The current pig farming profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment for a potential market improvement in July and August, the 09 contract is facing increasing upward pressure [16]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in the market is sufficient, but the price has reached a phased low. Traders may replenish their stocks at low prices, and the demand is expected to improve. Egg prices in most regions are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly, while a few regions may see a slight decline [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On July 9, 2025, compared with July 8, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil increased by 40 yuan to 8170 yuan, a 0.49% increase; the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 26 yuan to 7920 yuan, a 0.33% decrease. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil increased by 120 yuan to 8700 yuan, a 1.75% increase; the futures price of P2509 increased by 34 yuan to 8678 yuan, a 0.39% increase. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil increased by 50 yuan to 9680 yuan, a 0.52% increase; the futures price of OI509 decreased by 88 yuan to 9510 yuan, a 0.92% decrease [1]. Corn - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of corn 2509 decreased by 2 yuan to 2319 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease; the basis increased by 2 yuan to 41 yuan, a 5.13% increase. The futures price of corn starch 2509 increased by 1 yuan to 2677 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase; the basis decreased by 1 yuan to 23 yuan, a 4.17% decrease [3]. Sugar - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5606 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase; the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 32 yuan to 5779 yuan/ton, a 0.56% increase. The spot price in Nanning increased by 20 yuan to 6040 yuan, a 0.33% increase; the spot price in Kunming increased by 485 yuan to 6365 yuan, an 8.25% increase [7]. Cotton - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of cotton 2509 increased by 45 yuan to 13830 yuan/ton, a 0.33% increase; the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 13785 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase. The commercial inventory decreased by 29.71 tons to 282.98 tons, a 9.5% decrease; the industrial inventory decreased by 2.71 tons to 90.30 tons, a 2.9% decrease [10]. Meal - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 2800 yuan; the futures price of M2509 increased by 12 yuan to 2947 yuan, a 0.41% increase. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged at 2480 yuan; the futures price of RM2509 increased by 10 yuan to 2586 yuan, a 0.39% increase [12]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of live - hog 2511 decreased by 85 yuan to 13600 yuan/ton, a 0.62% decrease; the futures price of live - hog 2509 decreased by 10 yuan to 14265 yuan/ton, a 0.07% decrease. The spot price in Henan decreased by 970 yuan to 14080 yuan; the spot price in Shandong decreased by 1030 yuan to 14170 yuan [15]. Eggs - **Price and Market Data**: On July 10, 2025, compared with the previous value, the futures price of egg 09 contract increased by 17 yuan to 3596 yuan/500KG, a 0.47% increase; the futures price of egg 08 contract increased by 39 yuan to 3484 yuan/500KG, a 1.13% increase. The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 0.10 to 2.19, a 4.37% decrease; the farming profit decreased by 6.27 yuan/feather to - 36.71 yuan/feather, a 20.60% decrease [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of various agricultural commodity futures are mainly in a state of oscillation, with different degrees of strength or weakness in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean - producing areas, rising trade concerns, a well - supplied domestic soybean market, 8 - week consecutive low - level increase in oil mill soybean meal inventory, high - level continuous soybean meal pick - up volume, and an un - reversed negative basis of soybean meal. The short - term soybean meal futures price is affected by import cost, supply pressure, and trade concerns and turns to oscillating [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent oil market is affected by the volatility of international oil prices, and market funds' attention to palm oil has increased. The palm oil market focuses on whether the Malaysian palm oil inventory can decline as expected. The phased supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has tightened, Indian demand for importing palm oil has increased, and with the attention of funds, palm oil performs relatively strongly in the oil sector [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6]. - **Factors Affecting Different Varieties**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].