1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report on the protein meal market indicates that the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is increasing, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest The USDA has adjusted the US soybean production and export forecasts, leading to an increase in ending stocks, and the report's impact on the market is neutral to bearish Domestically, factors such as good state - reserve soybean auction results, high domestic soybean meal inventories, and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3] - Regarding the oil market, the MPOB report data is in line with expectations, and the overall impact on the market is neutral The cancellation of Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% has raised concerns about palm oil demand, but positive news about US soybean oil demand has boosted oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - For domestic futures, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures have declined, with decreases of - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 3.15% respectively; soybean meal futures decreased by - 0.40%, while rapeseed meal futures increased by 5.01%, and peanut futures increased by 0.29% [2] - In terms of spreads and ratios, there have been changes in various spreads and ratios, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, the P9 - 1 spread changing from - 26 to 62, etc [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - The price of BMD palm oil futures decreased by - 0.48%, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.96%, CBOT US soybean oil increased by 3.72%, and CBOT US soybean meal decreased by - 0.96% [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with decreases of - 0.82%, - 2.26%, and - 1.23% respectively; the prices of soybean meal remained unchanged, rapeseed meal decreased by - 0.84%, and peanuts remained unchanged [2] - There have been changes in spot spreads, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining unchanged at - 150, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil changing from 1280 to 1210 [2] 3.4 Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts - Import profits have changed, with the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changing from - 251 to - 372, and the import profit of US Gulf soybeans changing from - 146 to - 175 [2] - Warehouse receipts have also changed, with the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts changing from 29,147 to 28,247, and the number of palm oil warehouse receipts changing from 1,248 to 1,448 [2] 3.5 Industry Information - According to NOPA data, the US soybean oil inventory in December 2025 was 1.642 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels [3] - As of January 10, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 98.2%, and the harvest rate was 0.6% [3] - The USDA has adjusted the US 2025/26 soybean production and export forecasts, increasing the ending stocks to 350 million bushels [3] - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and inventories increased by 7.58% month - on - month [3] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the biodiesel plan at the B40 level [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the agricultural market is characterized by a mix of supply - and - demand factors, with different commodities showing various trends. Some commodities are expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term, while others face downward pressure or are in a state of consolidation. The report suggests different investment strategies for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [1][2][7]. Summary by Commodity 1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Supply increases while demand weakens, and palm oil leads the decline in the oils and fats market. - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan and raises palm oil export taxes. In the domestic soybean market, 1.13 million tons of imported soybeans were auctioned on January 13th with a 100% transaction rate. For rapeseed oil, there are ongoing Sino - Canadian talks on rapeseed trade, and overseas rapeseed production is expected to be high in the long run. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate, while rapeseed oil will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a correction and a long - palm oil short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [1][6][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal's low points on the futures market continue to be refreshed, and soybean meal's support at previous lows needs attention. - **Logic**: Internationally, the January supply - demand report is bearish for US soybeans, but Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestically, the auction of soybeans by the State Reserve was successful, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is accumulating. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal futures will fluctuate, and rapeseed meal will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to customs inspection policies and the progress of China's soybean purchases [9][10]. 3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: As the Chinese New Year approaches, restocking boosts prices. - **Logic**: The corn market is in a tight - balance state, with farmers reluctant to sell, slow import of grains, and tight railway transportation. Downstream deep - processing enterprises are restocking. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term [12][13]. 4. Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Second - fattening occurs in the north, leading to a rise in northern hog prices and a decline in southern prices. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure is small at the beginning of January, but there may be concentrated pre - holiday slaughter. In the long term, sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate. Near - term contracts may fluctuate weakly, while long - term contracts can be considered for long - positions at low prices with caution [14]. 5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It shows wide - range fluctuations, and the trend remains unchanged. - **Logic**: Rubber prices were slightly affected by the decline in commodities but did not break through the support level. The rise is mainly driven by capital rotation. The supply is increasing seasonally overseas, and the demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: It is considered bullish in the short term due to strong capital sentiment [16][18]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It slightly declines and maintains high - level fluctuations. - **Logic**: The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate strongly in the medium term, although there is short - term pressure [19][20]. 7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price corrects and continues to consolidate. - **Logic**: The long - term bullish drivers are the "tight - balance" in 2025/26 and the expected reduction in planting area in 2026. Currently, it is in an adjustment phase due to the exhaustion of short - term positive factors. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the long term. A strategy of buying at low prices during corrections is recommended [20][21]. 8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price fluctuates within a narrow range. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic market has increased supply. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term. A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [21]. 9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of hardwood pulp turns down, increasing fundamental concerns. - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation is in line with market expectations and seasonal patterns. There are both bullish factors (higher import costs) and bearish factors (difficult cost transfer and seasonal demand decline). - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. The bottom is supported by macro - atmosphere and import price increases, while the upside is limited by weak demand and high liquidity [22][23]. 10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates weakly. - **Logic**: The market is generally stable, with some production lines planning to resume production. There is inventory pressure on paper mills, and downstream orders are limited. The addition of futures warehouse receipts suppresses the upward space. - **Outlook**: It may face pressure in the second half of the month, and the risk of correction should be noted [24]. 11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors are digested, and logs fluctuate strongly. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are improving marginally, with a decrease in negative factors in the delivery process and a short - term supply shortage in the Jiangsu market. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate strongly in the short term. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [25]. Commodity Index - On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2439.09, down 0.39%. The commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%, and the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35%. The agricultural product index was 941.54, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a 5 - day decline of 0.21%, a 1 - month increase of 2.22%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.91% [183][185].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment value [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment timing [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency but low market operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, demonstrating a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Pig: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Egg: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, pig, and egg, and provides corresponding investment ratings and strategies [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are undergoing a correction after reaching a high, with profit - taking at the peak. Short - term policy increases grain supply, but the supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious. Attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the USDA report, US soybeans are in a weak oscillation. China's soybean imports reached a record high last year. Domestic oil mills' production is increasing for peak - season demand. The probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1 is 75%, and the focus returns to US soybean exports and South American weather. If the South American weather is stable, soybean meal prices will follow the weak trend of US soybeans [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean oil is strong due to positive biodiesel expectations, although the USDA report cut its biodiesel use. Palm oil had a short - term price correction after Indonesia's B50 policy stance. The current rise is driven by demand expectations and policies, but supply factors like South American soybean harvest and Malaysian palm oil inventory should also be considered, with a range - bound view [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products declined today as the market focuses on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. There are expectations of a “loosening” of China - Canada rapeseed trade policies. Coastal oil mills' Australian rapeseed is not yet processed, and inventories are falling. If China - Canada relations do not improve as expected, rapeseed prices may rebound. This week, rapeseed prices are expected to be weak [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are in a weak oscillation, and US corn is still seeking a bottom. Policy - based grain supply is increasing, but overall inventory is low, and sellers are reluctant to sell. Downstream enterprises are starting the Spring Festival stocking. The main driving factors are unclear, and futures will be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [7] Pig - The pig futures market is rising with increased positions, and the 03 contract hit a new high. Spot prices are stable. The strength of the macro and commodity markets is spreading to the pig market. However, due to increased supply, pig prices may hit a second bottom next year. Attention should be paid to the game between pre - Spring Festival supply and demand [8] Egg - Egg spot prices are slightly stronger, and the Hebei price is rising. The futures market is weak. Chicken - chick replenishment from August to December last year decreased by about 10% year - on - year, leading to a low number of new - laying hens in H1 2026. Egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand and supply reduction, egg prices are expected to rise. For H1 2026 contracts, a long - at - low strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy is recommended [9]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 震荡 | | | 周二，玉米主力 2603 合约先跌后涨，期价继续上行，近月领涨、远期跟涨，3 月合约期价接近 2300 元整数关口，多头情绪占据主导。现货市场方面，受期货 | | | | 上涨影响，玉米现货市场节前备货对期、现报价提供支撑。东北近日有降雪，或 | | | | 影响玉米上量。销区进入节前备货模式，但随着近期拍卖量的增加，销区需求有 | | | | 一定的补给，销区采购需求多样化。周末华北地区玉米价格有涨有跌，主流价格 | | | 玉米 | 保持稳定，深加工企业根据自身到货情况价格窄幅调整。基层购销相对平稳，贸 | | | | 易商对优质玉米建库意愿逐渐增强。下游企业库存同比偏低，但节前备货压力不 | | | | 大。周末销区市场玉米价格主流平稳运行。节前备货刚需支撑，储备粮持续投放、 | | | | 进口玉米及替代品较多，压制价格上涨，市场整体购销活动一般。技术上，玉米 | ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 1 月 12 日 出口需求改善 棕榈油区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连较节前跌12收于4038林吉特/吨， 跌幅0.3%；棕榈油05合约涨98收于8682元/吨，涨幅 1.14%；豆油05合约涨132收于7994元/吨，涨幅1.68%； 菜油05合约跌45收于9042元/吨，跌幅0.5%；CBOT豆油 主连涨1.11收于49.66美分/磅，涨幅2.29%；ICE油菜籽 活跃合约涨21收于623.4加元/吨，涨幅3.49%。 ⚫ 油脂板块整体震荡运行，菜油较为弱势震荡主要是加 拿大总理即将访华，中加贸易关系有改善预期，市场情 绪带动下菜油走弱。棕榈油区间震荡，市场等待MPOB报 告发布，等待利空兑现；另外，最新高频数据显示产量 减少，出口改善，叠加印尼计划增加出口税补贴B50措 施等 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the domestic three major oils are weak due to high production in palm oil - producing areas, sluggish exports, and high domestic inventories. However, in the long - term, with Indonesia's measures such as confiscating illegal plantations and implementing the B50 plan, and the expected significant increase in the total consumption of bio - diesel oils in the US in 2026, the outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. As of Friday, the May contract of soybean oil closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous week; the May contract of palm oil closed at 8,682 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton or 1.14%; the May contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,042 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.5%. In terms of spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean oil was 156 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was 112 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 21 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The basis of the May contract of soybean oil was 526 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was - 2 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 758 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Information**: Indonesia's Energy Ministry may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints. Last year, Indonesia consumed 14.2 million liters of palm - based biodiesel, a 7.6% increase from the previous year. The Energy Ministry has allocated 15.65 million liters of palm - based biodiesel for this year's blending task and plans to increase the blending ratio to 50% in the second half of the year. The Indonesian President said that Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year. The MPOB will release the December monthly supply - demand report next Monday. As of the week ending January 2, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [11]. - **Fundamentals Assessment**: The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is high, while that of palm oil is low. The biodiesel spread is neutral considering inventory, and the import profit is low. Palm oil in the producing areas still has high inventory in the first quarter. Global sunflower seed production is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, and rapeseed production will increase by 9 million tons. Global palm oil inventory is still at a low level. Overall, oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spreads between different contracts, etc., including the basis of the May contract of palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of the May contract of soybean oil, the basis of the May contract of rapeseed oil, the spread between the May contracts of soybean oil and palm oil, the May - September contract spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [19][20][23][25][27]. 3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the production and export of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply - side situation of the oils [31][33][34][35]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The report shows the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts [39]. - **Palm Oil**: It presents the near - month import profit of palm oil, the commercial inventory of palm oil, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [41][48]. - **Soybean Oil**: It shows the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants [43]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It shows the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil [45]. 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil**: It shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: It shows the import price of rapeseed oil for near - month shipments and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 6. Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: It shows the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: It shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].

Group 1 - The restructuring of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil Group aims to enhance their capabilities in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and application, promoting high-quality development in the aviation industry [1][2] - Sinopec is recognized as one of the earliest companies in China to have SAF production capabilities, filling a gap in the domestic application of SAF in local aircraft [2] - The merger will leverage the strengths of both companies in technology research and development, industrialization, storage, transportation, and international trade related to SAF, facilitating its research, usage, and continuous iteration [2][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has included SAF in its central budget investment support scope, indicating a strong policy backing for the development of sustainable aviation fuels [2] - The aviation industry is identified as a challenging sector for emissions reduction, with SAF being the only commercial tool available to significantly lower carbon emissions from air travel, potentially reducing emissions by up to 85% without requiring modifications to aircraft or airport infrastructure [2] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that SAF will contribute approximately 62% of the carbon reduction needed for achieving net-zero emissions in aviation by 2050 [2] Group 3 - The European Union has allocated €1.6 billion in subsidies for airlines to promote SAF application, alongside clear blending directives, which are key demand stimulants for SAF [3] - Four domestic companies have received approval for a total production capacity of 116,000 tons of bio-jet fuel for export, indicating a growing domestic capacity for SAF production [3] - With increasing policy support from various countries, SAF is expected to experience a wave of large-scale development [3] Group 4 - Hai Xin Energy Technology, a company under the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focuses on bioenergy and has recently received approval for its bio-jet fuel "white list" for 2026 [4] - Fengbei Bio is one of the few companies capable of producing industrial-grade blended oils that meet SAF requirements, primarily supplying raw materials to SAF producers for further processing [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products having different price trends and influencing factors [1][7]. - The oil market is affected by factors such as international crude oil prices, South American soybean production expectations, and Malaysian palm oil production and exports, with short - term rebounds and medium - term oscillations [1][7]. - The protein meal market is under inventory pressure, with double meal showing narrow - range oscillations [8]. - The corn and starch market is in a state of tight balance, with prices oscillating within a range [10][11]. - The pig market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term oscillations and long - term supply pressure expected to gradually ease [12]. - The natural rubber market has bullish sentiment, with rubber prices rebounding from low levels, and short - term bullishness is expected [14]. - The synthetic rubber market has a relatively certain improvement in the supply - demand pattern, with short - term upward pressure and medium - term oscillatory strength [16]. - The cotton market is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the long term, with a bullish view in the short term [16]. - The sugar market is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the medium - to - long term, with a downward driving force for sugar prices [18]. - The pulp market is expected to be oscillatory and strong, with bullish factors lifting the bottom and bearish factors mainly in the long - term price transmission [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the short term, with paper mills' price increases boosting market sentiment [20][21]. - The log market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with narrow - range oscillations and marginal improvement in fundamentals [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is on an upward trend, and vegetable oils continue to rebound. Domestic oil trends are oscillatory and strong, with palm oil showing a more obvious upward trend [1][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, crude oil prices are rising, increasing the attractiveness of palm oil as biodiesel. South American soybean production is expected to be high, with Brazil's soybean planting almost completed and Argentina's planting over half - done. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestically, soybean supply is relatively sufficient, and soybean oil inventory is slowly decreasing. Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period with improved export expectations, and palm oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and short - term price - holding sentiment among traders is strong, but global rapeseed production is high, and prices are difficult to rise in the long term [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Inventory pressure remains high, and double meal shows narrow - range oscillations [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and South American soybean production prospects are optimistic. Domestically, domestic soybeans are being continuously auctioned, and downstream purchase sentiment has declined after replenishment. Soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream consumption is not booming. Imported soybean purchase volume has changed in different quarters, and there are concerns about the extension of the inspection period for Australian imports, making rapeseed meal perform stronger than soybean meal [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to oscillate [8]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a differentiation between North China and Northeast China, and futures prices rise and then fall [10][11]. - **Logic**: As the delivery approaches, the futures market follows the logic of price convergence with the spot market. In the upstream, snow in Northeast China has affected the grain supply rhythm, and in North China, the improvement of local corn quality has diverted some demand for Northeast corn. In the downstream, after continuous replenishment, downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory, and the market is in a state of tight balance [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain sales progress, and downstream profit conditions [12]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: At the end of the month, the supply volume decreases, and pig prices rebound [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens decreased in mid - December and rebounded in late December, with a decrease in supply at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. Near the New Year's Day holiday, the demand for stocking has increased, but the pig weight is still high [12]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate. The near - term contracts are expected to operate weakly, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Bullish sentiment remains, and rubber prices rebound from low levels [14]. - **Logic**: After a slight decline due to commodity adjustments, rubber prices rebounded. The short - term upward space may be further expanded if there is continuous position - increasing or strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but there is a certain downward pressure. The demand side is weak after the rapid price increase [14]. - **Outlook**: Fundamentals have limited variables, but market sentiment is strong, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market shows a strong oscillatory trend [16]. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of marginal improvement in the butadiene supply - demand pattern is gradually becoming a consensus. The absolute price of the BR contract is relatively low. The butadiene market price was firm last week, and the downstream synthetic rubber market is strong, driving the butadiene market atmosphere [16]. - **Outlook**: The improvement in the butadiene supply - demand pattern is relatively certain, but there is short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the medium term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues [16]. - **Logic**: Recently, Zhengzhou cotton has risen strongly. Fundamentally, the new cotton listing progress is fast from September to December, but the inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected, and the apparent demand has increased year - on - year. Policy - wise, there are plans to reduce cotton planting in Xinjiang next year, which boosts market sentiment. In the long term, the domestic cotton supply - demand may be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the long term, and the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: There is a slight rebound, but prices are still under pressure [18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, with Brazil, Thailand, and India all increasing production. In the domestic new crushing season, production is also increasing, and the spot pressure is increasing. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract has rebounded technically but is still in a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the medium - to - long term, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is dull, and futures prices oscillate repeatedly [19]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded yesterday, and the spot market is calm. The market is affected by the financial market atmosphere. Fundamentally, there are bullish factors such as the increase in broad - leaf pulp prices, the supply reduction expectation due to pulp mill shutdowns, and the high actual demand. There are also bearish factors such as difficulties in cost transmission for downstream paper products, seasonal decline in demand, and high hedging pressure on traders [19]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and strong. Bullish news raises the bottom, but the hedging pressure above remains [19]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the market shows a strong trend [20]. - **Logic**: The double - gum paper market is operating stably, with limited production changes in the industry. The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market sentiment is boosted by paper mills' price increases. The market is under the dual pressure of high costs and weak demand, but paper mills have a strong demand for price increases [20]. - **Outlook**: Paper mills' price increases boost market sentiment, and the paper price is expected to bottom out and be oscillatory and strong in the short term [21]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices oscillate in a narrow range [22]. - **Logic**: The log market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with stable trading. The external market provides support for the futures price. In the short term, there is a small space for processing plants to replenish inventory, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the first quarter. In the medium term, the 03 contract has certain trading points [22]. - **Outlook**: Fundamentals are improving marginally, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [22].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract and view it as a rebound for now. The supply and demand fundamentals of forward contracts have little change, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high-frequency data in Malaysia shows that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline from December 1 - 20 widened, providing some support for the palm oil market. The market is also concerned about the development of biodiesel in Indonesia. The domestic soybean oil inventory declines seasonally, and the basis is strong, with strong support for the futures price at 7,800 - 8,000. Rapeseed oil is generally used as a short position in arbitrage, but the basis quote is firm due to continuous inventory reduction and concentrated cargo rights. The futures price rebounds due to excessive decline, but caution is needed regarding the unilateral upward height. In terms of arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of the third-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 530, and from February - March was OI2605 + 490. The basis price of the first-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 730, and from February - March was OI2601 + 690. The basis price of the first-grade soybean oil in the East China market had different values at different time periods. The palm oil quotes of traders in Dongguan were stable [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract. For forward contracts, expect narrow fluctuations. In arbitrage, long palm oil and soybean oil and short rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20, 2025 decreased by 7.44% month-on-month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 2.12% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.75% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% month-on-month [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures, including the spot prices of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the price spreads of P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [11][13][16]