策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 15 日） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美农报告的库存超预期下降给美豆期价带来提振，美豆期价上涨至 6 周最高水平。国内豆类市 场跟随市场情绪波动，产业链环境并未出现变化，市场交易以贸易格局影响下的供应预期为主。菜系市场 整体受到反倾销初裁情绪的影响，出现大幅回落，盘面波动加剧。 品种：棕榈油(P) 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着马棕期货结束之前连续四个交易日的涨势，同时印尼知名行业组织正在游说政府推迟 B50 生物燃料政策的推出。随着市场情绪回落，菜油期价大幅回落， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be on an upward - trending or at least stable and slightly increasing path, while the medium - term view for all three is "oscillating" [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA report shows that US soybean stocks have declined more than expected, giving a boost to US soybean futures prices. Sino - US trade policy changes and Sino - Canadian trade tensions are affecting market sentiment. The domestic industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and the trading logic revolves around supply expectations and costs. With the initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, Sino - US trade relations continue to impact market sentiment, making short - term soybean meal futures prices more likely to rise than fall [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, the low inventory of US soybean oil and the optimistic expectation of biodiesel demand support US soybean oil futures prices. The increase in domestic soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the pressure of oversupply, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has eased. At the same time, the expected increase in raw soybean costs has pushed up soybean oil futures prices, which have reached new stage highs, and market sentiment has clearly improved [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the rotation of the oil and fat sector has continued. Palm oil has been continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. As the previously weak rapeseed oil has seen a compensatory increase, the upward rotation pattern of the oil and fat sector has been further strengthened, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade continues to affect market sentiment, influencing the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the price of US soybean futures will remain volatile. The weak reality of the domestic soybean meal fundamentals remains unchanged, and its futures price is more affected by market sentiment. With some funds leaving the market, the price has dropped significantly from its high and will run weakly in a volatile manner before market sentiment recovers [5]. - The overall decline in international oil prices has a continuous spill - over effect on the oil and fat market, suppressing the bio - energy demand prospects of the oil and fat sector. As palm oil has the strongest bio - energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, it is greatly affected by the fluctuations of international oil prices, and the risk of high - level fluctuations in palm oil futures prices increases in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade uncertainty affects US soybean export prospects, and domestic soybean meal fundamentals are weak. Market sentiment and capital flow influence the futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices suppresses the bio - energy demand of the oil and fat sector. Palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, is greatly affected by international oil price fluctuations, increasing short - term high - level volatility risks [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the medium - term and show a slightly strong intraday performance. The main reasons are the increasing expectation of a good harvest of US soybeans under normal weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the slow forward buying of ships in China leading to an expected tightening of forward supply, and the continuous fermentation of market optimism [5]. - The palm oil futures market is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term and show a volatile trend in the medium - term. The palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector. Driven by the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil futures prices is strong, which restricts its downward space. In the short - term, it is affected by international oil price fluctuations and runs with a slightly strong trend [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly strong, medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is slightly strong [5]. - **Core Logic**: With normal weather in US soybean - producing areas, the expectation of a good harvest of US soybeans is growing. The slow forward buying of ships in China leads to an expected tightening of forward supply, which boosts soybean futures prices. The market's optimistic sentiment is continuously fermenting, consolidating the recent strong pattern of soybean futures prices. The soybean meal futures are stronger than the spot, and the domestic market is stronger than the foreign market, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term view is slightly strong, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is slightly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil leads the rise in the oil and fat sector. The rebound of the oil and fat sector reflects the energy attribute of oils and fats. Supported by the expected good demand for biodiesel in Indonesia, the energy demand support for palm oil futures prices is still strong, restricting its downward space. In the short - term, it is affected by international oil price fluctuations and runs with a slightly strong trend [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For soybeans (domestic): The current oversupply situation persists, limiting the upside potential. The downstream market is expected to start the back - to - school season stocking after mid - August, which may drive a new round of market trends [2]. - For soybeans (imported): There is a lack of new speculative themes. The decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans is offset by the expected rainfall, which eases the impact of high temperatures on crops, leading to a price correction [2]. - For soybean meal: Internationally, the US soybean is expected to be strong due to weather and bio - fuel policies. Domestically, the increase in import costs and the high - cost performance of low - price soybean meal in July may lead to increased purchases by feed enterprises. However, the abundant supply will limit the price increase [2][3]. - For soybean oil: Internationally, the US bio - fuel policy boosts demand, and the market focuses on weather during the key growing season. Domestically, there is inventory accumulation, a continuous decline in basis, and weak market supply and demand due to the seasonal off - season and poor terminal demand [2][3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing prices of domestic futures contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil showed different trends, with soybean meal up 17 yuan/ton and soybean oil down 16 yuan/ton. CBOT soybean and soybean meal prices decreased, while CBOT soybean oil prices increased [2]. - Position volume: The position volume of domestic futures contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil also had various changes, with the position volume of soybean meal decreasing by 34,462 hands and that of soybean oil decreasing by 14,497 hands [2]. - Net long positions: The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil had different changes, with the net long position of soybean meal increasing by 17,212 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, with soybean meal decreasing by 463 hands and soybean oil decreasing by 423 hands [2]. Spot Price - Domestic soybean price remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan/ton, and soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased, with the price in Rizhao down 60 yuan/ton to 8,150 yuan/ton [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans increased by 79 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans increased by 23 yuan/ton to 3,477 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and inventory: US soybean production decreased by 0.14 million tons to 117.98 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 8.44 million tons. Brazilian production remained unchanged at 175 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 39.96 million tons [2]. - Export and inspection: The weekly inspection volume of US soybeans decreased by 8,942 thousand bushels to 5,426 thousand bushels, and the weekly export volume decreased by 119,457 tons to 276,415 tons. Brazilian monthly exports increased by 470,000 tons to 14.99 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and开工率: The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased by 16,500 tons to 6,659,650 tons, the weekly inventory of soybean meal increased by 63,800 tons to 886,200 tons, and the national port inventory of soybean oil increased by 24,000 tons to 932,000 tons. The weekly oil - mill开工率 decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 64.52%, and the weekly oil - mill crushing volume decreased by 36,800 tons to 2,295,400 tons [2]. - Price difference: The soybean - palm oil price difference decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton, the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 1,300 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 1.05 yuan/ton to 193.16 yuan/ton [2]. - Trading volume: The weekly trading volume of oil - mill soybean meal decreased by 5,909 tons to 668,700 tons, and the weekly trading volume of oil - mill soybean oil increased by 24,600 tons to 108,300 tons [2]. - Profit: The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, and the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu increased by 11.9 yuan/ton to 78.05 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: China's total domestic soybean consumption increased by 5.1 million tons to 126.8 million tons, and China's food consumption of soybean oil increased by 900 thousand tons to 18,800 thousand tons [2]. - Livestock: The price of live pigs in Beijing decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 14.52 yuan/kg, and the weekly expected profit of pig farming increased by 3.48 yuan/head to 62.02 yuan/head. The monthly production of feed increased by 981,000 tons to 27,621,000 tons, the monthly pig inventory decreased by 1,012,000 heads to 41,731,000 heads, and the monthly inventory of breeding sows increased by 40,000 heads to 4,042,000 heads [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal increased by 2.28 percentage points to 16.7%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal increased by 2.26 percentage points to 16.69%. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 12.78%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02 percentage points to 11.74% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 17, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons, higher than the market expectation of 200,000 - 400,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [2]. - In the soybean planting area, the temperature in most parts of Northeast China is slightly higher, and the soil moisture is suitable, with overall good growth conditions. The market quotes in the inland areas are stable with a slight downward trend [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impact of biofuel policies on the soybean crushing industry in Nebraska, with a new facility set to produce 50 million bushels annually [1] - Since the beginning of 2023, over 10 new crushing projects have been added in the Midwest, resulting in an approximate 30% increase in processing capacity [1] - The article raises questions about the potential effects of these developments on soybean prices [1]

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 141 to close at 4,316 ringgit/ton, a 3.38% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 282 to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 174 to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, a 2.18% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 147 to close at 9,586 yuan/ton, a 1.56% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 2.01 to close at 55.58 cents/pound, a 3.75% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 15.9 to close at 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.33% increase [3]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. In the biodiesel sector, Indonesia's B40 policy is being gradually implemented, and its domestic B50 plan is in the testing and research phase, expected to be fully implemented in January 2026, leading to high bullish sentiment among funds and a significant increase in palm oil prices. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy will exacerbate the tight supply expectation of US soybean oil, resulting in a relatively obvious increase, and the domestic market is driven by this, with soybean oil performing stronger than rapeseed oil [3][6]. - Macroscopically, the US retail and employment data are strong, the inflation data are generally moderate, the impact of tariffs has not been fully reflected, the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has cooled, and the US dollar closed higher at a weekly low. In China, the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the bullish atmosphere, and commodity prices have generally increased. Fundamentally, it is currently the production - increasing season, with both supply and demand increasing. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, increasing the demand for biodiesel, and the upcoming B50 policy will exacerbate the tight supply - demand pattern. The US's unexpected biodiesel target will also exacerbate the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the price data of various oil and fat contracts on July 18 and July 11, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, etc., as well as their price changes and percentage changes [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose last week, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policies (B40 and the upcoming B50) and the US biodiesel policy are the main factors driving the price increases [6]. - From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.06%, but its export volume decreased according to different survey agencies. The export tax of Malaysian palm oil in August will increase from 8.5% in July to 9% [7][8]. - As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters. India's palm oil import volume in June increased by 60% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% [8]. Industry News - Indonesia expects its palm oil tax revenue this year to reach 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $1.84 billion), and plans to replant 50,000 hectares of palm plantations this year, lower than the target of 180,000 hectares [11]. - According to a report, global palm oil prices are expected to rise by 33% by the end of 2025, reaching $1,200/ton, due to supply tightening in Indonesia and Malaysia and increased global demand driven by biodiesel policies [11]. - AI is being used in the Malaysian palm oil industry, improving the oil extraction rate by 0.1%, increasing the normal operation time of the factory by 5 - 10%, and reducing the dependence on manual labor by 45% [12]. - India aims to increase its domestic crude palm oil production from 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029 and expand the planting area from 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares next year [12]. - UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that Malaysia's palm oil exports may increase in July, production is expected to increase, and inventory may remain stable [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][39][42]

期货热点追踪 欧盟棕榈油进口量骤降20%，生物燃料政策变动？未来价格会如何波动？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view for soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly bullish; Reference view: oscillating and slightly bullish [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The market focuses on the US Department of Agriculture report tonight. Traders adjust their positions before the report, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. The domestic soybean market supply remains abundant, and rising trade concerns boost market sentiment again. In the short - term, pay attention to the linkage effect of the US Department of Agriculture report. Under the influence of weak reality and trade concerns, soybean meal futures prices are expected to move in an oscillating and slightly bullish manner [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly bullish; Reference view: oscillating and slightly bullish [7][8] - **Core Logic**: Palm oil was dragged down by the disappointing Malaysian palm report and weakened. The Malaysian palm report showed that the Malaysian palm inventory increased instead of decreasing, disappointing the market. Some funds left the market, causing the palm oil futures prices to decline. The strengthening of the neighboring soybean oil futures prices provides some support to palm oil futures prices. In the short - term, palm oil futures prices may enter a consolidation phase [8] Other Influencing Factors - **Soybean Meal 2509**: Influenced by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7] - **Soybean Oil 2509**: Affected by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7] - **Palm 2509**: Influenced by biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures price may rebound in the short - term as the market sentiment stabilizes. The rise of US soybean futures price, driven by the increase in the expected demand for US soybean crushing due to the US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill and the market's focus on the weather - related yield adjustment from July to August, has led to a rise in the cost of imported soybeans in China [6]. - The palm oil futures price shows a short - term strong and volatile trend. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which in turn boosts the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill also boosts the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector, indirectly benefiting palm oil [8]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill includes measures to restrict biofuels from North American sources, which drives up the US soybean oil futures price, increasing the expected demand for US soybean crushing and thus the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the US soybean planting area is determined, the market focuses on the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. With the stabilization of market sentiment, the soybean meal futures price may rebound [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which has a positive impact on the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill on July 1 boosts the US soybean oil futures price, enhancing the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector and indirectly benefiting palm oil. The obvious return of short - term funds makes the palm oil futures price trend strongly and volatile [8].