投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：市场对中美农产品贸易前景的担忧情绪升温。基本面呈多空交织格局，南美巴西大豆收割率五 年同期最低，收获延迟为美豆期价提供短期支撑，但丰产预期未改。国内现货市场因油厂开机恢复中、货 权集中，整体表现抗跌，但节前高库存压力持续。豆粕价格陷入进口成本波动加剧与国内供需宽松的博弈 中，短期走势震荡偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：油强粕弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 豆粕：据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司 CONAB，截至 2 月 21 日，巴 西大豆收割率为 32.3%，上周为 24.7%，去年同期为 36.4%，五年均值为 36.6%。 马托格罗索州农业经济研究所（IMEA）表示，截至 2 月 20 日，该州 2025/26 年 度大豆收割进度已达种植面积的 65.75%，高于一周前的 51.01%，略低于去年同 期的 66.16%，但是仍高于过去五年平均进度 57.25%。一周前该州大豆收获进度 还领先去年同期水平，但是降雨阻碍了田间作业。IMEA 预测 2025/26 年度该州 大豆产量为 5050 万吨，比上年的创纪录产量降低 0.74%。 节假期外盘美豆出现明显上涨，但是压榨利润更多的倾向于美豆油，豆粕仍 然保持震荡。巴西大豆收割进度因为降水延误，但是这种延续并未带来实际的减 产效应，大豆供应仍然显得充足，后续豆粕需要关注国内进口大豆到港以及元宵 节后的抛储计划，近月进口大豆供应将决定近月行情走势。 ZZ0022441 McDonald Pelz、金十期货网站。 美豆油受到美 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $67 million or $1.97 per diluted share for Q4 2025, an increase from adjusted net income of $47 million or $1.36 per diluted share in Q4 2024 [8][9] - Fourth quarter gross profit was $231 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher volume and margins in renewables [8][9] - Full-year gross profit increased to $714 million, up 3% from the previous year [9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $137 million, compared to $117 million in Q4 2024, while full-year adjusted EBITDA decreased to $337 million from $363 million in 2024 [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agribusiness reported Q4 pre-tax income of $46 million, down from $56 million in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $80 million compared to $88 million in the previous year [11][12] - Renewables generated Q4 pre-tax income of $54 million, significantly up from $17 million in 2024, with Q4 EBITDA of $69 million compared to $41 million in the previous year [13][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fall harvest produced larger-than-expected volumes of grain in the Western Corn Belt, leading to significant corn and sorghum accumulation [4] - Exports for wheat and sorghum from Western assets saw sizable increases in Q4 compared to earlier quarters [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to profitable growth in both agribusiness and renewables, with ongoing investments in ethanol production and infrastructure [5][6] - Strategic projects include the expansion of the Port of Houston and improvements in the Skyland asset footprint [6] - The company expects to complete several larger capital projects in 2026 to enhance operational efficiency and product handling [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, anticipating better financial results in agribusiness and strong demand for ethanol [16][19] - The company is focused on connecting supply to end users and export demand, with expectations of higher planted acres in 2026 [17][18] - Management noted that domestic demand for production is critical for U.S. farmers, and legislative support for biofuels would benefit the agricultural economy [17][19] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 19%, and for the full year, it was 16% [9] - The company’s long-term debt to EBITDA ratio at year-end was 1.8 times, below the target of less than 2.5 times [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strength of the Skyland business - Management indicated that the performance was not surprising due to the large fall harvest, with Skyland's EBITDA contribution finishing just shy of $20 million [24][25] Question: Fertilizer application outlook - Management discussed strong ammonia applications in the western U.S. and expected higher than normal applications in Q1 2026 [27][28] Question: Agribusiness segment profit opportunities - Management highlighted more certainty around export policies and increased nitrogen application as key profit opportunities for 2026 [31][32] Question: Ethanol business momentum - Management noted slightly stronger Board Crush than expected entering Q1, with strong fundamentals for both export and domestic ethanol [34][35] Question: Skyland contribution for 2026 - Management expects Skyland's EBITDA for 2026 to normalize in the $25 million-$35 million range, assuming mid-cycle market conditions [42] Question: Farmer selling dynamics - Management indicated that higher prices would drive more selling from farmers, with substantial selling expected before the next harvest [44][45]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company reported net income of $67 million or $1.97 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $70 million or $2.04 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $47 million or $1.36 per diluted share in Q4 2024 [8][9] - Q4 gross profit was $231 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher volume and margins in renewables [9] - Full-year gross profit was $714 million, a 3% increase, driven by the Skyland investment [9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $137 million, compared to $117 million in 2024, while full-year adjusted EBITDA was $337 million, down from $363 million in 2024 [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agribusiness reported Q4 pre-tax income of $46 million, down from $56 million in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $80 million compared to $88 million in 2024 [11][12] - Renewables generated Q4 pre-tax income of $54 million, significantly up from $17 million in 2024, with Q4 EBITDA of $69 million compared to $41 million in 2024 [13][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fall harvest produced larger than expected volumes of grain in the Western Corn Belt, leading to significant corn and sorghum accumulation at favorable basis values [4] - Exports for wheat and sorghum from Western assets saw sizable increases in Q4 compared to earlier quarters [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to profitable growth in both agribusiness and renewables, with ongoing investments in ethanol production and infrastructure [5][6] - Strategic projects include the expansion of the Port of Houston and improvements in the Skyland asset footprint [6] - The company plans to begin operations at a renewable feedstock storage facility in Kansas and is focused on connecting supply to end users and export demand [6][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, expecting better financial results in agribusiness due to more certainty in global grain markets and strong demand for ethanol [16][17] - The company anticipates higher planted acres in 2026, which may benefit the fertilizer business, although volumes depend on farmer decisions [18][19] - Management highlighted the importance of domestic demand and favorable biofuels policies for supporting ongoing growth [19][20] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 19%, and for the full year, it was 16% [9] - The company maintains a disciplined approach to capital spending, with long-term debt to EBITDA at 1.8 times, below the target of less than 2.5 times [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strength of the Skyland business - Management noted that the performance was not surprising due to the large fall harvest, with Skyland's EBITDA contribution finishing just shy of $20 million [24][25] Question: Fertilizer application strategy - Management indicated that they expect stronger than normal applications in Q1, with a focus on ammonia applications for corn acres [27][28] Question: Agribusiness segment outlook for 2026 - Management highlighted potential profit opportunities in agribusiness due to more certainty around export policies and increased nitrogen applications [32][33] Question: Ethanol business momentum - Management reported slightly stronger board crush than expected entering Q1, with strong fundamentals for both export and domestic ethanol [35][36] Question: Skyland contribution for 2026 - Management expects Skyland's EBITDA contribution for 2026 to normalize in the $25 million-$35 million range [42] Question: Farmer selling dynamics - Management indicated that higher prices would drive more selling, with farmers likely to hold off until they see substantial price rallies [44][45]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company reported net income of $67 million or $1.97 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $70 million or $2.04 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $47 million or $1.36 per diluted share in Q4 2024 [8] - Fourth quarter gross profit was $231 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher volume and margins in renewables [8] - Full year gross profit was $714 million, a 3% increase, driven by the Skyland investment [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agribusiness reported Q4 pre-tax income of $46 million, with adjusted pre-tax income of $45 million, down from $56 million in 2024 [11] - Renewables generated Q4 pre-tax income of $54 million, significantly up from $17 million in 2024, reflecting strong operations in ethanol plants [13] - Adjusted EBITDA for renewables in Q4 was $69 million, compared to $41 million in Q4 2024, while full-year adjusted EBITDA was $203 million, up from $189 million in 2024 [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fall harvest produced larger than expected volumes of grain in the Western Corn Belt, leading to significant corn and sorghum accumulation [4] - Exports for wheat and sorghum from Western assets saw sizable increases in Q4 compared to earlier quarters [4] - The eastern grain assets had solid performance, with strong elevation margins and a significant portion of corn moving into export markets [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to profitable growth in both agribusiness and renewables, with ongoing investments in ethanol production and infrastructure [5] - Strategic investments include expanding the Climer, Indiana facility and enhancing the Port of Houston grain elevator [6] - The company aims to connect supply to end users and export demand, focusing on continuous improvement in safety culture and enterprise support [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, expecting better financial results in agribusiness due to more certainty in global grain markets and strong demand for ethanol [16] - The company anticipates higher than normal planted acres in 2026, which may benefit the fertilizer business [18] - Management highlighted the importance of domestic demand and supportive biofuels policies for the agricultural economy [19] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 19%, and for the full year, it was 16%, influenced by non-controlling interests and biofuels credits [9] - The company generated Q4 cash flow from operations of $110 million, up from $100 million in 2024, indicating stability throughout the agricultural cycle [10] - Long-term debt to EBITDA at year-end was 1.8 times, below the target of less than 2.5 times, supporting future investments [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strength of the Skyland business - Management noted that the performance was not surprising due to the large fall harvest, with Skyland's EBITDA contribution finishing just shy of $20 million [24][25] Question: Fertilizer application outlook - Management indicated that they expect stronger than normal applications in Q1, with a focus on corn acres despite some uncertainty [27][28] Question: Agribusiness segment profit opportunities - Management highlighted more certainty around export policies and increased nitrogen application as key profit opportunities for 2026 [32][33] Question: Ethanol business momentum - Management reported slightly stronger Board Crush than expected entering Q1, with strong fundamentals for both export and domestic ethanol [35][36] Question: Skyland contribution for 2026 - Management expects Skyland's EBITDA contribution for 2026 to be in the range of $25 million to $35 million, normalizing over time [43] Question: Farmer selling dynamics - Management stated that higher prices would drive farmer selling, with substantial selling expected before the next harvest [45][46]

Group 1: Soybean Oil Market - The focus of the soybean oil market is on the upcoming U.S. biofuel blending mandate for 2026, expected to boost demand for U.S. soybean oil and global soybean oil outlook [2] - The proposed 45Z clean fuel tax credit rules from the U.S. Treasury are expected to provide long-term structural support for U.S. soybean oil prices, linking its value to energy policies [2] - Risks include potential underwhelming outcomes from the U.S. biofuel policy, improved weather conditions in South America, and domestic inventory accumulation during the Chinese New Year [3] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift due to reduced supply from production areas, recovering export demand, and unexpected declines in inventory, as confirmed by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board [4] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased by 7.72% to 2.815 million tons, with January production dropping by 13.78% to 1.577 million tons, while exports increased by 11.44% to 1.484 million tons [4] - Domestic market sentiment is affected by rising risk factors, including potential weather improvements in Southeast Asia and the purchasing pace of major importing countries like India [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 作者：田亚雄 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月13日 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2011〕1461 号 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 全球植物油市场正处于结构性转变之中。核心特征是棕榈油增长引擎失速，而大豆、葵花、菜籽等软油 种植面积加速扩张以弥补缺口。数据显示，全球棕榈油出口已从2018/19年度的5530万吨峰值萎缩至 2024/25年度的4930万吨，棕榈油占全球17种油脂出口的份额也从7年前的57% 降至约50%。这一颓势主 要受制于印尼的政府干预（已没收约410万公顷种植园，并计划再没收400-500万公顷）和马来西亚的种 植园老化问题（约80万公顷感染疾病，2027年35% 的油棕树龄将超19年），而最近在吉隆坡召开的棕 榈油会议也备受市场关注，以下是我们总结的 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美国农业部 2 月报告虽上调巴西大豆产量至 1.8 亿吨，但对美豆供需数据未作调整，报告符合 市场预期。美豆走强实源于双重外部预期，一是市场持续交易中国可能额外采购美国大豆的预期，二是美 国政府 3 月初将确定的 2026 年生物燃料强制掺混配额政策，提振豆油及大豆需求前景。国内市场节前备 货结束，下游采购意愿低迷，油厂陆续停机致合同量收紧、部分压车，为豆粕现货提供阶段性支撑，但整 体购销情绪偏淡，且油厂库存偏高、供应宽松格局未改；菜粕受加菜籽进口传闻、澳菜籽压榨 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者：正信期货 张翠萍 1、马棕降库预期已充分交易 2月10日午间MPOB报告公布，马棕产量下滑，出口增加，库存终结10连增的状态且降幅超预期。 图1 2026年1月马棕产销情况 | 数据来源：MPOB，正信期货 | | --- | 1月马来供需整体改善。产量，1月马棕延续减产趋势，幅度高达13.78%，尽管产量连续3个月下滑，但 在去年10月200万吨的天量基础上，1月马棕产量仍为近7年最高水平，产量端影响偏中性。出口，马棕 出口连续两个月增长，且1月出口增幅11.44%较12月继续扩大；一方面1月棕榈油价格低于竞争品豆 油，印度豆油进口处于亏损状态且豆油进口成本较棕榈油高出100多美元/吨，炼油企业加大棕榈油采购 量，1月印度自马来进口棕榈油较上月增24%，创近4个月高点，1月棕榈油总进口量环比增51%至76.6万 吨，且斋月前仍有备货需求，预计2月印度棕榈油进口量继续增加，高频数据显示2月前10日印度自马来 进口的棕榈油环比再增11%；另一方面印尼公布消息称自3月1日起将棕榈油出口专项税上调至12.5%， 销区赶在税收上调前买货带动1-2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bunge recently released its 2025 financial report and 2026 earnings guidance, highlighting that future events will primarily revolve around policy implementation and financial performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Bunge forecasts its adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be in the range of $7.50 to $8.00, which is below the Wall Street analysts' consensus estimate of $8.71 [2] - The company identified major pressure factors including commodity market volatility, trade disruptions, and narrowing processing margins [2] - Market attention will focus on whether the actual quarterly financial results for 2026 align with the guidance, particularly regarding profit changes in North American operations influenced by biofuel policy [2] Group 2: Industry Policy and Environment - The U.S. Treasury Department released a draft of the 45Z tax credit rules in early February 2026, but the final rules for biofuel blending quotas are still under review, expected to be announced around March 2026 [3] - If the rules maintain the initial proposal levels, it could stimulate demand for oilseeds like soybeans, but the actual impact on Bunge's profitability will depend on the details of the implementation [3] - Delays or changes in policy may continue to suppress customer order willingness, with Bunge's management emphasizing that "market outlook is difficult to predict," necessitating close monitoring of policy announcements and their ripple effects on the agricultural sector [3]