Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with the market showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations. The overall valuation of major companies has improved but remains rational [2][4]. - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is likely to see a slowdown in economic activity compared to the previous quarters, but the risk of a significant downturn is low. Measures such as the implementation of a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool are expected to support the economy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the steel industry, noting that administrative measures could accelerate the return of industry profits to average levels [2][4]. - The report identifies several companies as undervalued with strong safety margins, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.7 thousand tons to 236.2 thousand tons, while steel production has increased, with rebar production growing faster than hot-rolled products [12]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 88.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of steel has decreased by 3.0% week-on-week, with a significant year-on-year increase of 26.7% [24][26]. - The report notes that the inventory reduction is consistent across both social and mill inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [24][26]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 3.9% [51]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 0.3% [40][41]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have slightly decreased [48][60]. - The report indicates that the iron ore price index is currently at 104.8 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [60]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report notes a slight increase in steel prices, with the comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.5% week-on-week [74]. - The current profit margins for long-process steel products remain negative, with costs for rebar and hot-rolled products reported at 3,556 yuan/ton and 3,782 yuan/ton, respectively [74][80].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a decline of 7.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as long products down by 9.67% and flat products down by 7.38% [2][10] - Despite current supply-demand challenges and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][2] - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-margin specialty steel companies and leading firms with strong cost control [3][2] Supply Situation - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 88.6%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The production of five major steel products reached 7.412 million tons, an increase of 2.08% week-on-week [2][25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.942 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.90% [2][30] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 100,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.24% week-on-week [2][35] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.01% week-on-week to 10.294 million tons, while factory inventory also saw a decline of 2.95% to 4.037 million tons [2][43] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,438.3 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.47% [2][49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was -30 CNY/ton, while the profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel was -112 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 27.74% [2][55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 793 CNY/ton, up by 0.89% week-on-week [2][72] - The price for coking coal at the main stockpile in Jingtang Port was 1,790 CNY/ton, down by 40 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][72] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong competitive advantages in raw material supply [3][2]

Policy Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is soliciting opinions on the "Wind Power Equipment Industry Norms" to promote sustainable development in the wind power equipment manufacturing sector [3][18] - The newly released national standard for "Recycled Materials in Household Appliances" will take effect on May 1, 2026, aiming to regulate the use of recycled materials and promote green development in the industry [4][18] Carbon Emission Management - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced that the steel, cement, and aluminum industries will complete their first carbon emission quota compliance by the end of this year, marking their entry into a carbon trading compliance mechanism [5][6] - The central government has initiated ecological and environmental protection inspections in major energy companies, signaling a commitment to high-level ecological protection and the green transformation of the energy sector [7][18] Energy Projects - The National Development and Reform Commission has approved five flexible power interconnection projects, with a total investment of 24.4 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing inter-provincial power support capabilities [8][18] - China's first high-pressure natural gas long-distance pipeline pressure recovery power generation project has commenced operation, utilizing excess pressure during gas transmission to generate clean electricity [9][10] - The highest-altitude wind power project in China has been connected to the grid, with a total installed capacity of 60 MW, expected to supply clean energy to approximately 120,000 households annually [11][18] Ecological Initiatives - Major ecological protection and restoration projects in the Tibetan Plateau are projected to add approximately 30 million tons of carbon sinks annually, contributing significantly to the country's carbon neutrality goals [12][13] Market Trends - The "Shan Electric into Anhui" ultra-high voltage project has been completed, expected to deliver over 36 billion kWh of electricity annually, with more than half from renewable sources [15][18] - The Yangtze River Delta region has exceeded its annual electricity interconnection target of 180 billion kWh, reflecting a growing trend in electricity market integration [16][18] Industry Insights - The MIIT's new norms for the wind power equipment industry aim to enhance quality control and innovation, encouraging manufacturers to adopt green and intelligent technologies [3][19] - The wind power sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased prices and improved profit margins expected in the coming years, driven by a reduction in costs and enhanced operational efficiency [22][18]

钢材：五大材持续增产，钢价区间震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量207.96万吨（+7.96），热卷小样本产量316.01万吨（+2.35）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均236.28万吨（-0.6），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率33.4%（+0.5）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3436 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-230.07元/吨左右，谷电成本3271（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润- 65元/吨。近期电炉成本基本持平，但钢材价格小幅上涨，导致电炉利润有所回升，电炉产能利用率有所增长，废钢日 耗在50.78万吨，环比略降；长流程钢利润仍然亏损但继续修复，铁水产量本周小幅下滑，后续仍有下降空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the "Quota Allocation Plan for National Carbon Emission Trading Market for Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries for 2024 and 2025," indicating a significant step towards expanding the carbon market to cover major industrial sectors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The national carbon market, which started in 2021, has expanded from covering only the power generation sector to now include steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking its first major expansion [1][2]. - The types of greenhouse gases covered have also increased from solely carbon dioxide to include carbon dioxide, tetrafluoromethane, and hexafluoroethane [1]. Quota Allocation Framework - The "Quota Allocation Plan" continues the practice of free allocation of quotas based on carbon emission intensity, linking the quota amount to actual production levels without setting an absolute cap on total emissions [2]. - The focus is on direct emissions during production, excluding indirect emissions from purchased electricity and heat, emphasizing a "big fish, small fish" approach to target major emitters [2]. - The plan highlights the importance of data quality, stating that reliable carbon emission data is essential for an effective market, and introduces advanced monitoring technologies like blockchain and AI to combat data fraud [2]. Future Expansion Plans - Preparations for expanding the carbon market to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries have already begun, with a goal to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [3]. - The policy direction is clear, adhering to the principle of "mature one, include one," and will expand based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and emission characteristics [3]. - The ongoing improvements in the carbon emission management system and the implementation of reduction measures will enhance the role of the national carbon market in promoting green and low-carbon transformation in the economy and society [3].

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The national carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of carbon emissions, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2][3] - The eight key industries targeted for inclusion in the carbon market account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions [2][3] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry has initiated preparatory work for expanding the carbon market to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4] - The expansion will follow a principle of "mature one, include one," based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [1][4] Current Market Status - As of August 2025, 1,277 key emission units from newly included industries have opened trading accounts [5] - The carbon market has expanded to include three major industries: steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a total of 1,500 key emission units [6] Allocation and Pricing Mechanism - The allocation method for carbon quotas will be similar to that of the power generation sector, with free allocation based on carbon emissions per unit of output for 2024 and 2025 [6][7] - By 2027, a new mechanism combining total quota control and both free and paid allocation will be implemented, potentially raising carbon prices from around 50 yuan/ton to between 130 and 180 yuan/ton [7][10] Industry Impact - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market, with power, steel, cement, and aluminum sectors being better prepared compared to the more complex petrochemical and chemical industries [7][8] - The paper industry, primarily composed of small and medium-sized enterprises, may face significant cost pressures and management challenges [7] Data Quality and Management - Ensuring data quality is critical for the carbon market's success, with the Ministry planning to enhance the monitoring and verification (MRV) system [5][11] - The Ministry will also upgrade infrastructure to support the expanded carbon market, focusing on regulatory capacity and data security [4][11] Future Directions - The carbon market aims to establish a transparent and unified pricing mechanism by 2030, with a focus on effective emission reduction and a robust regulatory framework [10][12] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period [12]

Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have released a draft for public consultation regarding the procurement standards for new energy vehicles, emphasizing non-discriminatory treatment of suppliers and strict adherence to contract specifications for vehicle parameters and configurations [2] - China's first green hydrogen coal chemical project has commenced full market operation, with an expected annual hydrogen production of 705,900 cubic meters, which will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 13,880 tons [2] - Over 510 green mines have been established at the provincial level or above in China, including 1,054 national-level green mines, accounting for 40.8% of licensed operating mines, achieving significant results in resource conservation and ecological restoration [2] - The steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries are set to complete their first carbon emission quota clearance by the end of this year, as per the newly released quota distribution plan for 2024 and 2025 [2] Regional Developments - The Yangtze River Delta has achieved 180.8 billion kilowatt-hours of inter-regional electricity exchange, surpassing its annual target ahead of schedule, with an 8.26% increase compared to the previous year [3] - The implementation plan for the national carbon peak pilot in the Qiannan High-tech Industrial Development Zone has been released, aiming for a low-carbon, efficient modern phosphate chemical industry by 2030 [3] Energy Projects - Shanxi Province has initiated a bidding process for new energy projects, with a total mechanism electricity scale of 55.06 billion kilowatt-hours, including 14.17 billion kilowatt-hours from wind power and 40.89 billion kilowatt-hours from solar power [4] International Developments - Japan is expected to approve the restart of its largest nuclear power plant, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant, with only one of its seven reactors set to resume operation [5] - Egypt has signed a nuclear fuel procurement agreement with Russia for the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant, ensuring fuel supply for the first reactor [5] Corporate News - China Nuclear Engineering Corporation has reported new contracts totaling 123.84 billion yuan and cumulative operating revenue of 81.33 billion yuan as of October 2025 [7]

报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月19日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/20 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,050.00 | -20↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1573323 | -57810↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -105874 | -5566↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -49 | -3↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日， ...

从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025/11/19 能源转型与碳中和组 伊 张默涵 《方案》的调整为碳价提供有效支撑,建议关注逢低买入的机会。 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短 ...