| 宏观研究团队 | | | --- | --- | | | 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） | | | hening@kysec.cn shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524110002 | | | 事件：11 月社会融资规模增长 24885 亿元，预期 20191 万亿，前值 8161 万亿；人民 | | | 币贷款增长 3900 亿元，预期 5043 亿，前值 2200 亿。 | | | 信贷：政策性金融工具效果显现，信贷下行趋势边际趋缓  | | | 月信贷增长 亿元，同比少增 亿元。信贷同比下滑幅度收窄。 11 3900 1900 | | | 1、11 月企业信贷边际回暖，但需求回升有限。企业贷款增长 6100 亿元，同比 | | | 多增 3600 亿元（前值多增 2200 亿元），需求边际改善。结构来看，企业中长贷 | | | 和短贷表现好转，表内票据仍为绝对支撑。企业中长贷录得 1700 亿，同比少增 | | | 400 亿元，同比降幅显著收窄。企业短贷新增 1000 亿元，同比多增 1100 亿元， | | ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding the market average expectation of 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan[3] - The total social financing scale for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[3] - The growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 8.5%, unchanged from the previous month[3] Group 2: Loan and Financing Breakdown - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.28 trillion yuan[3] - Corporate loans increased by 4.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline[3] - Government bond financing reached 1.2 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan[4] Group 3: Market Trends and Implications - The corporate financing environment improved, as indicated by the BCI index rising to 52.50 in November from 52.41 in October[4] - The demand for residential loans remains weak, with short-term loans decreasing by 178.8 billion yuan and long-term loans decreasing by 290 billion yuan[3] - Policy-driven financial tools are beginning to show effects, particularly in infrastructure investment, which may influence corporate financing demand in the upcoming quarters[6]

中国人民银行12月12日披露的最新金融统计数据显示，11月末，社会融资规模存量、广义货币（M2）、人民币贷款余额分别同比增长8.5%、8%和7.7%。 从增量数据看， 前11个月，社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元 ，政府债券对社融增长形成了显著支撑。 业内专家表示，社会融资规模和M2增速均保持在较高水平，体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的金融总量环境。贷款增速 回落，主要是受到化债、处置不良以及多元化融资方式替代效应等因素影响。从今年前11个月看，金融总量数据相对稳定、增速明显高于同期名义经济增 速，较好体现了逆周期和跨周期调节思路。 核心数据一览： ——前11个月，社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元 ——前11个月，人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元 ——11月末，M2余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8% ——11月，企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1% 政府债券发行对社融形成关键支撑 初步统计，11月末社会融资规模存量为440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5% ...

11月金融数据出炉。12月12日，人民银行发布2025年11月金融统计数据报告。数据显示，2025年前11个月，人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元；社会融资规模增 量累计为33.39万亿元，超过2024年全年。截至2025年11月末，人民币贷款余额271万亿元，同比增长6.4%；社会融资规模存量为440.07万亿元，同比增长 8.5%，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。 整体来看，在多元化融资方式替代、化债替换以及中小机构改革化险等因素叠加影响下，11月贷款增速延续趋势性放缓，但信贷结构持续优化；社会融资规 模和广义货币余额继续保持较高增速。分析人士指出，11月金融总量保持合理增长，直接融资支撑作用仍强，2026年信用总量将维持在一定合理水平，既满 足实体经济有效需求，又不会大水漫灌。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信 ...

人民日报海外版北京12月12日电（记者徐佩玉）记者12日从中国人民银行获悉，今年前11个月，我 国人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元，其中企（事）业单位贷款增加14.4万亿元。 中国人民银行数据显示，11月末，我国人民币贷款余额271万亿元，同比增长6.4%。分部门看，前 11个月，我国住户贷款增加5333亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加14.4万亿元，其中中长期贷款增加8.49 万亿元。 另外，前11个月我国人民币存款增加24.73万亿元。其中，住户存款增加12.06万亿元。 从货币供应看，11月末，我国广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%；狭义货币（M1） 余额112.89万亿元，同比增长4.9%；流通中货币（M0）余额13.74万亿元，同比增长10.6%。 此外，社会融资数据显示，11月末，我国社会融资规模存量为440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%；前11 个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first 11 months of this year, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 14.4 trillion yuan [1] - As of the end of November, the total RMB loan balance reached 271 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [1] Loan Breakdown - In the first 11 months, household loans increased by 533.3 billion yuan, while corporate loans rose by 14.4 trillion yuan, with medium to long-term loans contributing 8.49 trillion yuan [1] Money Supply - By the end of November, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 336.99 trillion yuan, showing an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) was recorded at 112.89 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.74 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [1] Deposit Growth - In the first 11 months, RMB deposits increased by 24.73 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 12.06 trillion yuan [1] Social Financing - As of the end of November, the total social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [1] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first 11 months was 33.39 trillion yuan, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for November indicates a notable improvement in corporate financing demand, with the initial effects of policy financial tools becoming evident. However, the residential sector remains a significant shortcoming, primarily due to the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [4][11]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing remained stable at 8.5% [1][5]. - The increase in real credit was 405.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The decline was primarily driven by a reduction in residential loans [6][7]. - Corporate loans remained strong, aligning with the high BCI corporate financing environment index for November, indicating a shift in bank assessments towards corporate sectors due to weak residential loan demand [2][7]. Group 2: Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan, with expectations for December financing to remain around 1.2 trillion yuan [8]. - Corporate bond financing increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, driven by policy encouragement for technology finance and lower financing costs [8][9]. Group 3: Trust and Other Financing Instruments - The amount of undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 149 billion yuan, reflecting a significant expansion in bank bill issuance, likely influenced by lower interest rates [9]. - Trust loans increased by 84.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.3 billion yuan, partly due to the spillover effects of policy financial tools on infrastructure financing [9]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued downward trend following a peak in September [10]. - M2 growth was recorded at 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to reduced credit generation [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The main highlight of the November financial data is the improvement in corporate financing demand, with a need to monitor the impact of policy financial tools in the upcoming quarters, especially in the construction sector [4][11].

原标题：金融有力支持经济回升向好 中国人民银行12月12日公布的11月金融统计数据报告显示，广义货币供应量（M_2）和社会融资规 模增速均保持在较高水平；贷款规模保持合理增长，信贷结构持续优化；贷款利率保持在历史低位水 平。 金融总量合理增长有支撑 清华大学国家金融研究院院长田轩表示，中长期来看，贷款增速回落是经济新旧动能转换在金融领 域的反映，一方面是传统领域的信贷需求有所降温，另一方面是新的经济增长点较少依赖银行贷款。旧 的信贷缺口难以被新的信贷需求完全填补，导致当前贷款增速出现趋势性放缓，这也是经济向高质量发 展转型在信贷领域的反映。 宏观政策协同发力 "货币政策和财政政策的协调配合十分重要。今年央行继续综合施策维护资金面平稳，保持流动性 充裕，有力支持了政府债券的顺利发行。"田轩表示，今年以来，我国宏观政策逆周期调节力度加大， 财政政策积极发力，加力支持实体经济效果明显。 在促消费、调结构等方面，财政政策与货币政策也在协同发力。王青认为，今年的消费贷款贴息政 策就是很好的体现。对消费贷款贴息，降低贷款利率是减轻居民融资消费负担的一种方式，既体现了金 融体系的融资支持，也是财政资金对居民消费的投入。 《 ...

中国人民银行12月12日公布的11月金融统计数据报告显示，广义货币供应量（M_2）和社会融资规模增 速均保持在较高水平；贷款规模保持合理增长，信贷结构持续优化；贷款利率保持在历史低位水平。 "货币政策和财政政策的协调配合十分重要。今年央行继续综合施策维护资金面平稳，保持流动性充 裕，有力支持了政府债券的顺利发行。"田轩表示，今年以来，我国宏观政策逆周期调节力度加大，财 政政策积极发力，加力支持实体经济效果明显。 贷款量稳价降质效提升 11月末，人民币各项贷款余额271万亿元，同比增长6.4%。同时，贷款利率保持在历史低位水平：11月 份企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约30个基点；个人住房新发放贷 款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约3个基点。 目前，社会融资规模、M_2增速保持在8%左右，相比之下贷款增速略低，既体现了多元化融资方式对 银行贷款的替代，也与地方化债和中小银行改革化险的下拉作用有关。有研究测算，去年以来，地方政 府发行4万亿元特殊再融资债券，其中约六到七成用于偿还银行贷款，对当前贷款增速的下拉影响超过1 个百分点。此外，今年金融机构贷款核销的规模也 ...

（文章来源：人民日报） 前11个月，我国广义货币和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平。截至11月末，广义货币余额336.99万 亿元，同比增长8.0%；社会融资规模存量440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%。前11个月，社会融资规模增量 为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元。 本报北京12月12日电 （记者吴秋余）中国人民银行发布的最新数据显示：今年前11个月，我国人民币 贷款增加15.36万亿元。截至11月末，我国本外币贷款余额274.84万亿元，同比增长6.3%；人民币贷款 余额271万亿元，同比增长6.4%。 此外，贷款利率保持在历史低位水平。11月企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上 年同期低约30个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约3个基 点。 在贷款规模保持合理增长的同时，信贷结构持续优化。截至11月末，普惠小微贷款余额为35.88万亿 元，同比增长11.4%，制造业中长期贷款余额为14.94万亿元，同比增长7.7%，以上贷款增速均高于同期 各项贷款增速。 ...