非银金融 证券研究报告 关注新提法，续写新叙事——国新办"一揽子金融政 行业报告 | 行业点评 策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会点评 事件：2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办举办"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布 会，央行行长潘功胜、金管局局长李云泽、证监会主席吴清分别介绍政策情况。 要点： 1、央行方面，以定向"加杠杆"的方式"稳内需"，科技和消费是两大抓手。第一， 数量政策和价格政策符合预期。下调存款准备金率 50bps，下调政策利率 10bps， 下调公积金贷款利率 25bps。第二，结构政策力度更大。结构性货币工具利率下调 25bps，力度更大。第三，着力于以央行加杠杆支持实体经济，定向清晰。十项政 策中六项直指再贷款工具，两项与准备金率相关，以央行定向加杠杆的形式稳定内 需。主要提及"科技"和"消费"两大抓手，科技改造再贷款、服务消费与养老再 贷款、支农支小再贷款、创新债券风险分担工具。 2、金管局方面，宏观方针锚定稳预期，微观举措定向于科技发展与企业纾困。一 方面，进一步推动银行和保险公司资本金补充，"稳楼市"和"稳股市"仍是"稳预 期"目标的具象阐释，优化保险公司股票投资风险因子引导保险资金入市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in global capital markets driven by two unexpected narrative shifts: the breakthrough of DeepSeek, which reshapes perceptions of Chinese innovation, and the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative under Trump's governance, prompting a reassessment of global geopolitical economics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Asset Revaluation - Since the beginning of the year, there has been little change in global economic fundamentals, but capital markets have experienced significant shifts, with Chinese stocks outperforming and the US dollar declining [3][4]. - As of March 14, the Hang Seng Tech Index, representing Chinese tech stocks, surged by 31.6%, leading global asset performance, while the Nasdaq index, which had previously led for three years, fell by 10% [3][4]. - The reversal in asset performance is attributed to the two narrative changes: the DeepSeek breakthrough and the challenges to the "American exceptionalism" narrative [3][4]. Group 2: Narrative Evolution and Its Impact - The article outlines the concept of narrative economics, emphasizing that successful narratives require elements such as personal relevance, repetition, narrative constellations, and self-reinforcement [5][6]. - DeepSeek exemplifies a successful narrative that has rapidly gained traction due to its low cost, high performance, and open-source advantages, symbolizing a break from Western technological monopolies [7][8]. - The geopolitical narrative has shifted since Trump's election, with initial optimism giving way to concerns over tariffs and immigration policies, leading to increased uncertainty in US economic policy [9][10]. Group 3: Capital Flow Dynamics - Over the past three years, global capital flows have been heavily influenced by the old narratives surrounding China and the US, with a notable outflow of foreign capital from China since 2022 [16][18]. - The share of foreign capital in China's A-share market has decreased from 10% in 2021 to approximately 7.5% currently, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [16][17]. - In contrast, the US market has seen significant inflows, totaling around $950 billion since 2022, driven by the popularity of the AI narrative [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The article posits that the current narrative changes may still be in their early stages, with potential for further asset revaluation and capital flow adjustments depending on the interaction between narratives and fundamentals [21][22]. - It outlines three potential phases for the evolution of the Chinese AI narrative: narrative strengthening, narrative realization, and narrative upgrading, each with corresponding implications for asset revaluation and capital flows [23][24][25]. - The company emphasizes the need for timely policy interventions to support economic recovery and investor confidence, particularly in real estate, local finance, and consumption [28].