2025.09. 30 A股三大股指集体收红,全天窄幅震荡,延续节前反弹态势,上证指数在3800点整数关口获 得支撑后震荡走高,全月整体在3800点上方震荡,距离3900点仅一步之遥。 2655家上涨 散户资金净流入 涨跌停比 SHT 个股市场涨跌比大致相当,市场赚钱效应一 般,盘面上,存储芯片、能源金属、半导体、锂电 池、军工板块强势,白酒、汽车服务板块走弱, 银行、保险、公用事业、旅游酒店等板块跌幅 居。 两市成交额 万亿元 ▲ 0.93% 今日两市成交额呈现温和放量特征,市场基础 流动性依然充裕,8月、9月A股市场日均成交金 额连续两个月超过2万亿元,这一水平较去年同 期显著提升,市场交投活跃度处于历史高位。 资金情绪 主力资金净流出 79. 机构以"乐观布局、持股过节"为主流共识、机构资金明显向有产业趋势和政策催化的领域集中,重点布 局科技成长主线,并进行调仓换股,从部分高位板块向估值更合理的领域转移;散户"积极参与、热衷题 材",散户更倾向于追逐市场热点,例如对存储芯片、有色金属等当日强势板块表现出较高的关注度和交易 意愿,也有部分投资者因长假不确定性而选择观望,整体情绪在普涨格局下偏向乐观。 散户 ...

Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks ended the third quarter of 2025 on a positive note, with major indices showing significant increases [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 50.4%, leading global major indices in growth, while the Sci-Tech 50 and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 49.02% and 29.25% respectively [1][5] - In September, the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech 50 Index recorded gains of over 12% and 11%, reaching three-year and four-year highs respectively [6] Sector Performance - The technology growth sector emerged as the core driving force of the market, with 30 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification showing gains in the third quarter [11] - The communication sector led the quarterly growth with an increase of 48.65%, followed by electronics at 47.59% and power equipment at 44.67% [11] - In September, the top-performing sectors included power equipment (21.17%), non-ferrous metals (12.79%), and electronics (10.96%) [8] Individual Stock Performance - The ChiNext, Sci-Tech Board, and North Exchange saw a concentration of stocks that doubled in value, with notable gainers in September including Shoukai Co. (181.2%) and Haibo Technology (153.52%) [14] - In the third quarter, top performers included Shuangwei New Materials (1597.94%) and Tianpu Co. (468.92%) [14] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 13.95% in September, while the Hang Seng Index and the National Index increased by 7.09% and 6.79% respectively [16] - The best-performing sectors in Hong Kong in September were materials (21.68%) and non-essential consumer goods (19.99%) [17] Future Outlook - The market outlook for October and the fourth quarter of 2025 is optimistic, driven by policy expectations and a favorable liquidity environment [20] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan," which may boost market sentiment [21] - The technology growth sector is anticipated to present more opportunities in A-shares, while Hong Kong stocks may benefit from unique market structures and external liquidity expectations [21]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 9 月行情，正式收官。 这一月，全球资产价格风云涌动， A 港美股市场的热点板块和核心资产的波动都足够牵动人心。贵金属、有色、 算力、机器人、创新药、半 导体等 各赛道妖股横流大涨大跌，有人押对赛道躺赢，有人踏空拍断大腿，还有人刚入场就被套牢，每时每刻都在演绎不同的博弈与悲喜。 一起来回顾一下，谁才是市场最关注的焦点。 01 A港股涨幅榜 尽管宏观经济数据整体呈现温和放缓的态势，但市场更聚焦于结构性的增长亮点，如算力、半导体、创新药研发等，持续受到资金追捧。同 时，受益于生产者价格指数（ PPI）触底回升预期的顺周期资源板块也开始显现投资价值形成了 "科技成长" 与 "顺周期" 双轮驱动的良好局 面。 涨幅 TOP1：黄金白银再迎主升浪 而作为新能源产业链的上游，能源金属板块（主要指锂、钴、镍等）在 9月份同样涨幅居前。板块的上涨与电池行业高度联动，反映了市场对 储能长期趋势的乐观预期。 9月份，随着国际金价在本月创下历史新高，带动A股和港股相关概念股集体走强，贵金属板块成为两地市场中表现最为突出的板块之一。 A股涨势突出的公司 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3882.78 | +0.52% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 13526.51 | +0.35% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 3238.16 | +0.00% | | 000016 | - JF50 | 2988.94 | +0.53% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | 4640.69 | +0.45% | | 000688 | 科创50 | 1495.29 | +1.69% | 盘面上，有色金属、国防军工、芯片、房地产等板块涨幅居前，通信设备、油气开采、多元金融、酿酒等板块跌幅居前。 Wind实时监测数据显示，有色金属获得逾143亿元主力资金净流入，电力设备获得逾120亿元净流入，电子获得逾95亿元净流入，国防军工、计算机、医 药生物也均获得超50亿元净流入，汽车则连续7日获得净流入。通信行业遭主力资金净流出逾77亿元，机械设备净流出逾30亿元，银行、非银金融也净流 出超20亿元。 展望后市，银河证券指出，10月，是关键的政策布局窗口，资本市场预 ...

新华财经上海9月30日电（林郑宏）9月最后一个交易日，A股三大股指均以红盘报收，其中沪指上涨0.52%，报收3882.78点，日内涨幅最大。 纵观9月市场，沪指累计上涨0.64%，虽走出月线五连阳，但单月涨幅却创下5月以来最低；深成指累计涨6.54%，创业板指累计涨12.04%。其它 主要宽基指数方面，沪深300指数月内涨3.2%，科创50指数涨11.48%，科创综指涨7.11%，新华500指数涨3.66%。科技股主导行情下，双创指数 涨幅明显领先。 实际上，9月市场呈现明显的"以大为美"特征：中证100指数月内涨5.45%，中证500指数涨5.23%，而中证1000指数仅涨1.83%，中证2000指数甚 至收跌0.27%。 在资金面上，9月A股市场交投活跃，新华财经统计显示，除9月10日为1.98万亿元，其他所有交易日A股合计成交额都在2万亿元以上，全月成交 额突破50万亿元，创历史之最。 交投活跃的背后，是杠杆资金继续入场。新华财经数据显示，截至9月29日，沪深京三市融资余额为2.412万亿元，较8月底的2.245万亿元增加 1670亿元。融资余额占A股流通市值比例已攀升至2.52%。 首先，10月是关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sentiment and strategies of private equity funds as they approach the National Day holiday, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the market post-holiday, with a significant portion of funds choosing to hold high positions in their portfolios [4][6][11]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [6][4]. - The overall private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, marking a 0.37 percentage point increase from the previous week and reflecting a trend of increased allocations [6][4]. - The majority of private equity funds are optimistic about the market's performance after the holiday, with 70.19% expecting a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital support [9][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The primary investment focus is on technology growth sectors, with 59.62% of private equity funds highlighting areas such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key opportunities [10][4]. - A significant portion of funds (21.15%) is also looking at the valuation recovery in the new energy and real estate sectors, anticipating that clearer industry policies will provide rebound opportunities [10][4]. - There is a belief that the market will exhibit a balanced style post-holiday, with 62.50% of funds expecting a rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and leading stocks [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment among private equity funds is generally positive, with many viewing the current market as transitioning from the second to the third phase of a bull market [11][12]. - The article notes that historical data shows a greater than 70% probability of market gains following the National Day holiday, supported by liquidity from institutional investments and retail participation [11][12]. - The anticipated "slow bull" market trend suggests that while short-term volatility may occur, the long-term outlook remains favorable, particularly for technology growth sectors [12][11].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day holiday has led to increased attention on private equity fund positioning and their outlook for post-holiday market trends [1] Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, indicating a positive outlook for market trends post-holiday [2][4] - The overall private equity position index has risen to a new high for the year, reaching 78.41%, reflecting a general trend of increasing positions among private equity funds [5] - A majority of private equity funds believe that the recent market adjustments have mitigated risks, leading to an expectation of continued market rebound post-holiday [4][5] Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - Approximately 70.19% of private equity funds hold an optimistic view regarding the A-share market's performance after the holiday, anticipating a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [7] - 62.50% of private equity funds expect a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [7][8] - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds prioritizing sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals for investment [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - Private equity funds are particularly optimistic about sectors benefiting from policy support and economic transformation, such as AI and semiconductors [8][10] - Some funds are also looking at opportunities in undervalued sectors like renewable energy and real estate, anticipating valuation recovery [8][10] - The investment strategy is expected to balance between growth and value, with a focus on sectors that show resilience and potential for recovery [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday, indicating a general optimism about the market's performance post-holiday, with a significant majority opting for high exposure levels [2][5][6]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are choosing to hold heavy or full positions (over 70% exposure) during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [5][6]. - 17.31% of private equity funds are adopting a moderately heavy position (50% to 70% exposure), citing the presence of uncertainties during the holiday but still recognizing structural opportunities in individual stocks [5]. - Only 5.77% of private equity funds are opting for light positions (less than 30% exposure), reflecting a cautious stance due to significant market gains prior to the holiday and potential for adjustments post-holiday [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - 70.19% of private equity funds are optimistic about the A-share market's performance after the holiday, viewing pre-holiday market fluctuations as a consolidation phase, with expectations for gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [8][12]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotations among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [8][9]. - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds favoring sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - The article highlights a consensus among private equity funds that the investment focus will remain on technology growth, with 23.08% firmly optimistic about sectors like AI and semiconductors continuing to perform well [9][10]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are looking at the valuation recovery of the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting these low-valuation areas to provide rebound opportunities as industry policies clarify [9][10]. - The article also notes that 14.42% of private equity funds foresee a "high-low switch" in the market, where previously lagging traditional industries and high-dividend blue chips may experience a resurgence [9].

点评：2024年全国社保基金8.1%的投资收益率彰显其稳健运营能力，为市场注入信心。这一业绩 将提升社保基金对A股市场的配置力度，利好金融、消费等蓝筹板块。社保基金作为长期机构投资者， 其优异表现有助于引导市场价值投资理念，对整体市场稳定性形成支撑，也为其他机构投资者提供参考 标杆。 NO.3 从管理到专注投研，易方达张清华卸任副总经理 ｜2025年9月30日 星期二｜ NO.1 中国外汇交易中心：支持债券通下境外机构投资者参与债券回购交易 为落实中国人民银行《关于进一步支持境外机构投资者在中国债券市场开展债券回购业务的公 告》，中国外汇交易中心暨全国银行间同业拆借中心（下称"交易中心"）于9月29日起扩大境外机构投 资者债券回购交易服务渠道及范围，在结算代理渠道下支持全部类型境外机构投资者开展债券回购交 易，并通过与彭博等境外第三方平台的互联，支持债券通下境外机构投资者参与债券回购交易。29日， 新机制下18家境外机构投资者与工商银行、农业银行、交通银行、浦发银行、中国银行、建设银行、招 商银行、中信银行、上海银行、中信证券、兴业银行和中金公司等回购做市商达成"债券通"北向通买断 式回购交易共计44笔、39 ...

国庆长假临近，私募基金的仓位选择及对节后行情的研判，备受关注。 最新调查结果显示，六成以上私募选择重仓甚至满仓过节，并普遍看好行情趋势在节后延续，私募整体仓位指 数也升至了年内新高。 与此同时，部分私募也提醒投资者关注假期期间外围市场或出现的扰动情况。在投资主线上，大部分私募看好 科技成长方向，另一些私募则选择押注新能源、房地产产业链的估值修复。 逾六成私募选择重仓过节 长假在即，私募如何平衡机会与风险？私募排排网调查数据显示，65.38%的私募倾向于重仓或满仓过节（仓 位＞70%），认为假期期间外围市场扰动有限，国内基本面和政策环境提供了充足的安全边际。这些私募表 示，节前的行情调整已释放了部分风险，节后市场有望延续反弹格局，因此选择了积极持仓。 此外，17.31%的私募选择中等偏重仓位过节（50%≤仓位≤70%），其逻辑在于假期存在不确定性，但个股的结 构性机会仍值得把握，因此仓位保持了适度进攻；11.54%的私募则选择中等偏轻仓位过节（30%≤仓位＜ 50%），这部分私募强调长假期间外围市场的扰动风险不容忽视，因此采取稳健策略更为合适；仅有5.77%的 私募选择轻仓过节（仓位＜30%），其态度显然相对谨 ...