今年以来，信贷结构持续改善，支持经济结构转型。从央行获悉，从企业和居民角度看，2021年至今， 企业贷款占比由63%升至约68%，居民贷款占比相应由37%降至约32%，一升一降的背后，表明信贷资 金更多投向了实体企业，居民融资需求下降也与买房投资等更趋理性有关；从行业投向看，2021年至 今，在全部中长期贷款中，制造业占比由5.1%升至约9.3%，消费类行业占比由9.6%升至约11.2%，而传 统的房地产和建筑业占比则由15.9%降至约13%。(第一财经) ...

5月14日，央行发布最新金融数据，4月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。央行表 示，观察货币政策的效果要结合实体经济实际运行状况综合研判。市场权威专家表示，将金融数据与 GDP等实体经济指标进行对比分析，能进一步显现货币政策的效果，更全面地衡量央行货币政策的支持 力度。比如，M2/GDP，已经从2019年末的197%上升到2024年末的232%，5年时间提升了35个百分点。 该专家表示，将M2增速作为货币政策的观测性指标，有其内在合理性，随着金融深化和经济结构转 型，市场研究表明货币总量与经济增长的相关性在减弱，主要发达经济体也都经历过逐步淡化并放弃盯 住总量指标的过程。(第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while it decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in market demand supported by domestic demand expansion policies [1] - The decline in international prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, and copper has exerted downward pressure on domestic prices, contributing to the year-on-year decrease in CPI. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5%, maintaining stability [1] - Some industrial sectors, such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products, showed a narrowing decline in prices year-on-year, while industries like smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing experienced price increases [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic policies signal a sustained effort to support economic stability, with measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development. New policies, including fiscal measures to boost consumption and infrastructure investment, are expected to be introduced soon [2] - The strong demand for holiday tourism is anticipated to further release consumer potential, leading to price increases in related services [2] - In the medium to long term, the ongoing structural transformation and industrial upgrading in the economy are expected to lead to a more balanced supply-demand relationship, with a smoother economic cycle and a moderately loose monetary environment [2]

5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上宣布下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分 点，推出服务消费与养老再贷款，分别增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款与支农支小再贷款额度3000亿 元。总体来看，央行此次再贷款工具量价结合，力度大、支持面广、使用也更为便利，发挥了货币政策 工具总量和结构双重功能。权威专家表示，当前经济循环仍然存在堵点，结构性矛盾较为突出，未来货 币政策需要更多采用结构性工具，支持扩内需，挖掘新动能，助力经济结构转型和产业升级。 结构性货币政策工具利率是人民银行对商业银行提供再贷款的利率。据了解，此次是央行首次全方面下 调各项结构性政策工具利率，既包括支农支小再贷款等长期性工具，也包括碳减排支持工具、科技创新 和技术改造再贷款、保障性住房再贷款、股票回购增持再贷款等阶段性工具。 "结构性降息也是降息，有利于强化对商业银行的政策激励作用。"权威专家指出，截至2025年一季度 末，结构性货币政策工具余额5.9万亿元，是央行重要的基础货币投放渠道。此次降低利率0.25个百分 点，有利于强化对商业银行的政策激励，进一步发挥结构性货币政策工具对商业银行的牵引带动作用， 激励商业银行加强对重大战 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Fuyao Glass founder Cao Dewang is that the value of real estate is significantly overestimated, with construction costs being only 2,000 to 3,000 yuan per square meter, while prices exceed 10,000 to 20,000 yuan [1] - Cao Dewang argues that high housing prices attract excessive social capital into the real estate sector, hindering the development of the real economy due to a lack of capital inflow [1] - Independent economist Ma Guangyuan counters that dismissing real estate as merely "bricks and cement" overlooks its substantial contributions to GDP and employment, with the sector's contribution to GDP declining from nearly 30% to 22% [3][5] Group 2 - Ma Guangyuan emphasizes that the real estate sector supports over 56 related industries, providing employment for more than 50 million people, and a downturn in the market could lead to increased unemployment [3][5] - He warns that portraying housing as worthless could mislead the public, as housing demand remains rigid, and even renting incurs living costs [5] - The discussion highlights the need for a balanced approach to real estate, avoiding excessive financialization while recognizing its short-term economic contributions [9] Group 3 - Cao Dewang's perspective aligns with the idea that housing prices should reflect true value to avoid economic bubbles, citing that in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, the price-to-income ratio is as high as 40 [7] - Ma Guangyuan argues for the importance of maintaining a prosperous real estate market for GDP growth and employment, suggesting that the economy is overly reliant on real estate [7] - The urgent need is to stabilize the real estate market to allow for a gradual transition towards high-end manufacturing and high-tech industries, reducing dependency on real estate investment [9]

科技领域方面，过去几年，国内科学技术领域取得巨大突破，研发投入、研发强度不断提升。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 4月28日，兴证全球基金副总经理、知名基金经理谢治宇亮相2025年度中国投资人峰会。谢治宇表示， 面对当下国内外宏观环境和经济形势，仍能观察到多方面积极转变。 谢治宇表示，我国城投债务比例增速一定程度上得到控制。随着政府债务久期被拉长，债务利率开始明 显下降，"以时间换空间"，推动国内经济结构转型。 行业产能方面，过去几年，上游行业基本处在产能利用率相对饱满的状态，部分中游行业还有产能利用 率偏低的压力。部分行业由于供给约束，慢慢开始改善，并且市场对于控制产能逐渐形成共识，能够有 意识地认为这是影响后续行业持续发展的关键因素之一。 谢治宇表示，国内政策工具箱里还有非常多的工具。过去两年保持定力，现在非常有优势。 谢治宇还提到，之前国内市场承担的更多是企业融资需求，去年开始，更多强调权益市场如何能更好地 从投资角度提供新的可持续范式。这样的转变有利于科技投入。科技行业通过资本市场的融资发展，一 般效果相对较好，能够承担更大的风险和波动。此外，我国居民储蓄长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the initiatives taken by the Urumqi Municipal Market Supervision Administration to promote the transformation of individual businesses into enterprises, enhancing the vitality of the private economy and optimizing the market structure [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Urumqi Municipal Market Supervision Administration has established a "green channel" for the transformation process, allowing for a streamlined service that can complete registrations in as little as two hours while retaining the original business name and social credit code [1]. - A new "direct change registration" model has been introduced, breaking away from the traditional "cancel and re-establish" method, thus simplifying the process and maintaining the continuity of business history and administrative licenses [1]. - The administration is utilizing multiple channels for policy promotion, including WeChat groups and service windows, to provide one-on-one guidance to individual business owners considering transformation [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The transformation from individual businesses to enterprises is expected to enhance competitiveness and brand value, allowing businesses to benefit from various policy incentives such as financing support and tax reductions [2]. - This initiative aims to optimize the market structure by promoting the growth of small and micro enterprises, addressing the high proportion of individual businesses [2]. - The transformation is anticipated to attract investment and facilitate participation in bidding processes, thereby promoting regional economic and industrial upgrades [2]. - By retaining customer resources and expanding operational boundaries, transformed enterprises are expected to enhance their resilience against risks [2]. - The initiative contributes to sustainable economic development by fostering high-quality market entities, creating a development chain from "individual to enterprise" to "standardization and integration" to "industrial upgrading" [2].

好投资是信任与认知的双重胜利， 期 待我们始终走在双向奔赴的路上。 姜 诚 一季度市场似乎缺乏清晰的基本面主线，在技术进步的背景下，人工智能和机器人相关领域有不错表现。 因为我们组合中的标的整体价格变化不大，所以整体仓位和结构也变化不大，仅在个别标的价格有显著波 动时进行了"被动"应对。 四月是传统的财报季，叠加贸易战的影响，市场或许会更聚焦于政策对基本面的长中短期影响。但 我们 更专注于为资产进行称重，而非过度关注阶段性波动。我们不会对企业的利润曲线求解一阶导数（利润增 长率）或者二阶导数（增长率的变化率），而是试图对长期分红的现值求解"积分"，所以不太关心增速， 更关心竞争格局和竞争优势的结构性变化。 在结构性变化的维度内，我们的组合有喜有忧，忧的是一些 行业的差竞争格局持续的时间较长，这对长期价值有杀伤；喜的是重点品种的竞争优势在潮水退却后变得 更加明显。简而言之，弱β叠加强α，让我们暂无修订长期结论的必要。对贸易战的前景，很难做出准确 判断，但我们仍有底气，原因有两方面：一是我国完备的产业链和巨大的内需给经济提供了韧性；二是可 运用的政策空间还有很大余量。所以不必急于做判断，后续的操作仍是以多看少动为 ...

美国总统特朗普坚持提高关税的强硬态度(REUTERS) 然而，实际情况是，标普500指数在1～3月下跌了5%。财政扩张预期提高的德国和高科技股被买 入的香港等的同期股价涨幅超过2位数。容易受到美国股市影响的日本股市也表现低迷。如果美 国股市的下跌局面长期化，对日本股市也将带来逆风。 在特朗普上台前，许多投资者认为特朗普主张的关税只是"谈判筹码"，并未充分重视。也有观点 期待特朗普把股价当作自己的成绩单，顾及股市。但当市场目睹关税议案的提出和关税启动的速 度与规模超乎想象、以及特朗普和政府官员对当前股市下跌的轻视态度，乐观情绪消失。 "应做好美股再下跌10%的心理准备"，有经济学家这样说。美国股市1~3月的涨跌率明显逊色于 香港和欧洲，此前的"一强"地位正在动摇。资金远离美国股市的理由可能不仅仅是对眼前经济的 不安…… 美国股市正在失速。1～3月的股价指数涨跌率截至3月28日下跌5%，按季度计算，或1年半来首 次出现下跌。美国股市落后于欧洲股市等，此前的"一强"地位正在动摇。针对美国总统特朗普构 筑"关税壁垒"、谋求美国经济结构转型的野心，市场认为是在动真格，因此正在对美国经济形势 恶化做准备。 "忍耐是有限度 ...

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 3 月 28 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 1 位读者获赠本期推 荐好书！ 《消费繁荣与中国未来》 滕泰 张海冰 著 中信出版集团 出版 内容简介 构建消费型社会的系统方案 激活新消费时代的万亿商机 把握经济结构转型中的财富密码 透视中国经济发展的底层逻辑演变 本书分析了中国经济"宏观消费抑制之痛"和"总需求不足之困"的深层次原因，为 中国消费繁荣提出了系统性的解决方案。从"世界工厂"到"全球最大消费社会"的 惊险跨越，需要的不仅是政策工具箱的更新，更需要对整个经济治理体系的重新 编程：财政政策须由建设财政转向民生财政；货币政策需要在"流动性陷阱"中开 辟直达消费端的传导通道，建立信心修复的微观机制。消费繁荣的背后，还需要 产业结构升级的推动、民营企业家精神的充分焕发、创造新需求的磅礴力量，以 及深化收入体制改革的实质性推进。如何让这些因素充分发挥作用，本书给出了 既有理论支撑，又有实践价值的建议。 读懂这本"转型时代决策参考书"，搭建起理解中国经济转型的完整认知框架，才 能打开解码未来十年财富增长的密钥。 作者简介 滕泰 经济学家，万博新经济研究院院长，万博兄弟资产管理有限公 ...