Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed movements with energy & chemicals declining [12][15]. - Silver and gold prices are expected to rise, with silver potentially challenging the 2011 all - time high in Q1 - Q2 and gold maintaining an upward trend in Q4 [21][26]. - Poly - silicon remains in a policy - waiting plateau, with prices expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be a supply surplus in Q4 [35][39]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities had mixed performance, with energy & chemicals weakening. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver, gold, and SCFIS(Europe), and the top three decliners were poly - silicon, LPG, and ferrosilicon. Among financial futures, IM and IF of equity indices increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, and TL and T of CGB futures rose by 0.2% [12][13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On September 22, it increased by 3.8% to 10317 yuan/kg. Soft - landing expectations amplify short - term volatility. With the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and stable US fundamentals, silver prices are expected to rise and may challenge the 2011 high in Q1 - Q2. Attention should be paid to US economic data this week [20][21][22]. - **Gold**: On September 22, it increased by 2.0% to 846.5 yuan/gram. Prices may continue to fluctuate and gather momentum in the short term, and maintain an upward trend in Q4. Interest - rate cut expectations are the core bullish driver. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and the risk of its loss of independence may drive gold prices up. However, gold may face pressure if the trading shifts to "recovery", or gain new upside potential under certain negative scenarios [25][26][28]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Poly - silicon**: On September 22, it decreased by 3.6% to 50990 yuan/ton. It is in a policy - waiting plateau, and prices depend on policy signals. The new energy - consumption standard may accelerate the clearance of outdated capacities. Supply may decline slightly in Q4, and demand for the photovoltaic terminal is expected to be weak. There was a slight surplus in Q3, and it may expand in Q4 [35][37][39]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the evening of September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, providing strategic guidance for China - US relations. China and the US are in communication regarding a leaders' meeting at APEC [43]. 2.2 Industry News - Pan Gongsheng said further communication on the 15th Five - Year Plan and future financial reform will be conducted after the central government's unified deployment. - CSRC's Wu Qing stated that foreign capital currently holds A - share market value of 3.4 trillion yuan, and 269 enterprises are listed overseas. - As of the end of August, medium - and long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of tradable A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan [44][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, precious metals hit new highs again. After a slight adjustment last week, gold and silver prices continued to rise due to the sustained bullish logic in the fourth quarter [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts remains the core bullish driver for gold. With moderate inflation and weak employment, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have expanded to three times this year. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to drive gold prices higher. The potential increase in Trump's control over the Fed and the risk of reduced Fed independence strengthen the narrative of a weakening US dollar credit, providing greater upside potential for gold prices. The target price for US - dollar - denominated gold this year is maintained at 4000 [3]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not declined sharply and soft - landing trades dominate the market, the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward trend and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first and second quarters [3]. - The weekly range for spot London gold is [3600, 3800], and for spot London silver is [41, 45] [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Key Information - Both short - term spending bills of the two US political parties failed to pass the Senate, putting efforts to avoid a government shutdown into a deadlock. Trump warned of a possible government shutdown [2]. - Trump signed an executive order to reform the H - 1B visa program, requiring applicants to pay $100,000. He also launched the "Trump Gold Card" visa program, selling US residency to global wealthy individuals. An individual applicant can pay up to $5 million for a maximum stay of 270 days without paying taxes on overseas income. The US Commerce Secretary expects the program to raise over $100 billion for the US government [2]. - Trump will meet with Arab leaders on Tuesday to discuss a cease - fire in Gaza [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core bullish factor for gold. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have expanded to three times this year, and dovish expectations are expected to drive gold prices higher. The potential change in Fed leadership and the risk of reduced Fed independence strengthen the downward trend of US dollar credit, providing more upside for gold prices. The target price for US - dollar - denominated gold this year is 4000. Silver trends follow gold, and its price is expected to challenge the 2011 historical high [3]. 3.3 Market Data - On September 22, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index, the specialty commodity index, and the industrial product index were 2236.63 (+0.17%), 2510.95 (+0.44%), and 2246.26 (-0.34%) respectively [44]. - The precious metals index on September 22, 2025, was 2967.44, with a daily increase of 2.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.62%, a 1 - month increase of 8.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 34.13% [45]. - The PPI commodity index was 1320.47, with an increase of 0.03% [45].

Group 1 - As of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,222 billion, an increase of $299 billion from the end of July, representing a growth rate of 0.91% [1] - The rise in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar index and the overall increase in global financial asset prices, supported by China's resilient economic performance [1] - China's gold reserves stood at 74.02 million ounces at the end of August, up from 73.96 million ounces at the end of July, marking the tenth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - The price of spot gold surged to $3,600 on September 5, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of $976, or 37% [1] - Zheshang Securities anticipates that the financial attributes of gold will support its price increase in the short term, while it may serve as a safe haven in the medium term if other metals show a downturn [1] - Caixin Securities highlights that the recent dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor and inflation data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with ongoing global economic pressures and geopolitical risks maintaining gold's appeal as a hedge [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a surge on September 5, with significant movements in related ETFs and stocks, indicating strong market interest in both precious metals and base metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the base metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.38%, with Ganfeng Lithium increasing over 6%, and other stocks like Tengyuan Cobalt, Zhongmin Resources, Tianqi Lithium, and Shenghe Resources also showing gains [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.69%, while the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) saw a modest rise of 0.26% [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - The gold stock ETF (159562) experienced a net inflow of 220 million yuan over the past five days, while the base metals ETF (516650) had a net inflow of 240 million yuan over the last ten trading days [1] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) recorded a net inflow of 4.427 million yuan in the last three days [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - According to Zheshang Securities, in the short term, most metals are rising due to ample liquidity, and the financial attributes of gold are expected to support its price increase [1] - In the medium term, if market sentiment shifts, gold is seen as a good safe haven, especially if other metals show a reversal in trends, enhancing gold's hedging value [1] - In the long term, the decline in the credibility of the US dollar is viewed as the main narrative for the current bull market in gold, with potential further declines expected due to upcoming policies from the Trump administration [1]

Core Viewpoint - After three months of volatility, gold prices have experienced a strong increase, with spot gold in London maintaining a price above $3,500 per ounce as of September 4, 2023, and related ETFs gaining popularity [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - Most metals are rising due to ample liquidity, and the financial attributes of gold are expected to further support its price increase [1] - The sentiment shift could position gold as a safe haven, enhancing its value if other metals show a reversal in trends [1] Group 2: Medium-term Outlook - The potential for a shift in sentiment could highlight gold's hedging value, which would be beneficial for its price [1] - Current economic indicators suggest a cooling job market and inflation aligning with expectations, supporting the case for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The decline in the credibility of the US dollar is a primary narrative for the current bull market in gold, with expectations that new policies from the Trump administration may further weaken the dollar's credibility [1] - Ongoing global economic growth pressures and unresolved risks from tariffs and geopolitical conflicts maintain gold's status as a reliable store of value, leading to sustained investment opportunities in gold [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current interest rate cut expectations and challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve are favorable for gold. The likelihood of a rate cut is high as long as macroeconomic data does not exceed expectations [4] - This round of rate cuts is different from previous ones as it occurs in a high inflation environment, which is expected to lead to a rapid decline in real interest rates, benefiting gold prices. The report notes that the PCE core inflation in the U.S. was at 2.88% in July, with an upward trend [4] - In the short term, a bull market for metals is anticipated, with ample liquidity supporting gold prices. In the medium term, gold is seen as a safe haven if sentiment shifts, further enhancing its value [4] - The long-term narrative for the gold bull market is driven by declining dollar credibility, which may continue under the new policies of the Trump administration [4] - The report suggests that gold stocks have been underperforming since April, but adjustments may have been sufficient, leading to a positive outlook for gold stocks in September [4] Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook - A bull market for metals is expected, with liquidity supporting gold prices [4] Medium-term Outlook - Gold is positioned as a safe haven if other metals show a downturn [4] Long-term Outlook - The decline in dollar credibility is a key driver for the ongoing gold bull market [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines of gold stocks: 1. High-cost gold mines with significant profit improvement potential, such as Shandong Gold H-shares [4] 2. Future growth potential in equity targets like WanGuo Gold and ZhaoJin Mining [4] 3. Stable operators with growth expectations, such as ShanJin International and ChiFeng Gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar credit is providing long-term support for gold prices, driven by economic uncertainty and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Donghai Futures indicates that the softening dollar, combined with economic uncertainty, is boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a continued rise in gold prices [1]. - According to Wengang Futures, the weakening of US dollar credit is positively impacting gold prices, with expectations of continued expansion of the US fiscal deficit under the Trump administration [2]. - Shenyin Wanguo Futures notes that gold and silver are rebounding amid a weak dollar, with concerns over US debt and economic pressures continuing to grow [3]. Group 2: Price Predictions - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecasts that gold prices will gradually rise to $3,750 per ounce in the fourth quarter due to safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar [3]. - The World Gold Council suggests that a rise in gold prices to $4,000 is not impossible, driven by strong demand and economic pressures [4]. Group 3: Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reports that global gold demand remains strong, with total demand in the first quarter reaching 1,206 tons, marking the strongest start to a year since 2016 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the price rhythm of gold from the perspective of trading structure, highlighting the significant role of central bank gold purchases and investment demand in driving gold prices upward in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases and Demand - Central banks are projected to purchase approximately 1,044 tons of gold in 2024, becoming a crucial driver for gold price increases [1]. - The investment demand for gold is expected to reach 1,179 tons in 2024, indicating a shift in demand dynamics as prices rise [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Industrial Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption is anticipated to decline by 11% year-on-year in 2024, amounting to around 1,877 tons, due to high gold prices suppressing consumer demand [1]. - Industrial demand for gold remains low and stable, projected at only 326 tons in 2024 [1]. Group 3: Trading Structure and Market Dynamics - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF sizes, with domestic gold ETFs seeing a rise of over 50 billion in April, corresponding to a demand for 50-60 tons of physical gold [1]. - A surge in trading volume for A-share gold stocks has been observed, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm for gold investments and a crowded trading environment [1][2]. Group 4: Macro Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The current rise in gold prices is driven by a decline in the credibility of the US dollar and a restructuring of the monetary system, particularly following the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022 [2]. - Increasing uncertainty in the global investment landscape, exacerbated by issues such as the US debt ceiling and unpredictable government policies, is likely to continue pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that after the unexpected tariff policy on April 2, 2025, which caused liquidity shocks, gold prices surged and briefly exceeded $3,500 per ounce, before quickly retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating attitudes from Trump regarding tariffs. The medium to long-term trend for gold prices remains upward, with a projected range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Trends - Recent rapid increases in gold prices are characterized by significant volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a substantial decline in the US dollar index [2]. - Gold price volatility has risen sharply, currently at the 89.2 percentile historically, as uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2]. - The divergence between COMEX gold net long positions and gold price trends indicates a shift from speculative pricing to a supply-demand pricing model, with physical investment funds like SPDR Gold ETF increasing their holdings [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, after adjustments, a favorable allocation window for gold is anticipated, with a focus on monitoring gold price volatility trends [3]. - If Trump's tariff stance significantly eases or if negotiations with other countries progress positively, gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations and a downward trend in volatility [3]. - Key fundamental events to watch include the progress of US tariff policy negotiations and short-term fluctuations in central bank gold purchases, which have been a core driver of gold price increases in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Medium-Term Considerations - The ongoing decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its reserve status may lead to a sustained increase in gold price levels [4]. - The backdrop of de-globalization suggests a long-term downtrend for the US dollar index, exacerbated by rising fiscal deficits and the challenges of implementing tax cuts [4]. - High policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is expected to continue supporting gold prices, as the current environment is markedly different from 2018 [4]. Group 4: Quantitative Analysis - The quantitative model projects that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,209 and $3,905 per ounce in 2025, based on a framework that has shown a high correlation with historical gold prices [5]. - The model identifies four key pricing factors for gold since 2022: global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty in the US, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [5].