新华财经北京12月2日电上周，现货黄金上涨后维持高位运行，本周预计核心矛盾聚焦美国资本市场年 底资产配置调整以及美联储政策预期扰动，金价整体延续强势但短期波动或将加剧。 综合分析来看，年底机构调仓对金价构成短期压制，但难以逆转"政策宽松预期+央行配置+去美元 化"的中长期利好逻辑。当前金价高位震荡属"获利了结"与"长期配置"的力量平衡，回调幅度有限，逢 低布局仍是核心策略。 （文章来源：新华财经） 首先，需关注美国年底资产配置调整，桥水等头部对冲基金清仓黄金类资产，机构认为当前金价已脱 离"高性价比"区间，年底获利了结需求升温 。但贝莱德等机构维持黄金持仓稳定，全球央行去美元化 进程提速，长期配置需求形成底部支撑 。从中不难看出各大机构的配置逻辑，年底机构倾向"锁定收益 +对冲风险"，高利率环境下部分资金回流美债，但财政僵局与经济不确定性仍让黄金保留"组合保险"属 性。其次，美联储政策及经济数据也对金价造成一定影响。另外，地缘局势方面，中东、俄乌局势维持 局部紧张，但和平谈判进展使避险情绪边际降温，对金价影响从"主导"转为"辅助"。 ...

【要闻速递】 12月黄金走势的核心矛盾，已从地缘冲突转向美联储政策预期。尽管美乌沟通取得实质进展、地缘局势 有所缓和，短暂压制了黄金的避险买盘，但美联储降息预期的持续升温，为金价提供了更强力的支撑， 推动黄金完成从"避险驱动"到"政策驱动"的逻辑切换。 经济数据强化宽松逻辑市场焦点正转向今日稍晚公布的美国11月ISM制造业PMI数据。市场一致预期该 数值将从48.7小幅回落至48.6，继续停留在收缩区间。大宗商品研究员指出，若数据弱于预期，将直接 印证美国经济复苏乏力，巩固市场对降息的共识，为金价注入新的上涨动力；即便数据略超预期，也难 以逆转当前的宽松预期，仅可能引发黄金短线小幅回调。这种"数据利空有限、利多放大"的特征，决定 了黄金短期下行空间被压缩。 今日周二（12月2日）亚盘时段，期货端表现坚挺，沪金主连报960.90元/克，逆势上涨0.27%，显示市 场长期信心未改。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 地缘缓和成"短期扰动"非"趋势反转"美乌沟通进展及特使访俄计划，虽使避险需求边际下降，但并未改 变黄金的核心驱动逻辑。国际关系与市场分析人士明确表示，当前黄金价格更多反映的是对货币环境与 经济预期的权 ...

Group 1: Solana ETF and Market Dynamics - The Solana ETF experienced its first net outflow, with a total of $8.1 million withdrawn, including $34 million from the 21Shares Solana ETF [1][5] - The outflow indicates a significant shift in institutional investment strategies towards Solana, contrasting with the inflow seen in other ETFs like XRP [5] - The SOL price has dropped below the $140 mark, triggering stop-loss orders among leveraged long positions, exacerbating selling pressure [5][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 86.9%, with a 13.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - This shift in monetary policy expectations is reshaping global capital market liquidity, leading to a mixed performance in Asian and global stock markets [3] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by hedge funds shorting it, poses a risk to cryptocurrencies, including Solana, as the negative correlation between the dollar and crypto assets has intensified [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of SOL - Technical indicators show a bearish trend for SOL, with MACD signaling a strong downward momentum and KDJ indicating overbought conditions [6][7] - Key price levels for SOL include support at $133 and resistance at $145, with significant trading activity noted between $128.86 and $143.99 [6] - If the support level at $133 is breached, the potential for further liquidation of long positions increases, with the next target being the stop-loss area at $128.22 [6][10] Group 4: Geopolitical and Macro Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia and the US, are contributing to market volatility and risk re-evaluation across various asset classes [9] - The current environment is characterized by a mix of macroeconomic risks, technical pressures, and expectations of monetary easing, leading to a conservative and short-term focus among investors [9][10] - The ongoing geopolitical developments will likely influence market behavior, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector, where volatility is expected to persist [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing ongoing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index trading around key levels, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy and the impact of U.S. stock market adjustments are key concerns for market direction [1][2] - The upcoming release of the November CPI data on the day of the December Federal Reserve meeting may serve as a critical point for global risk appetite [2] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with slowing job additions and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while persistent inflation complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making [2] - The recent adjustment in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the tech sector, has led to a reassessment of AI investment narratives, revealing doubts about capital expenditure effectiveness and valuation pressures [3] - The A-share technology sector is particularly affected by the U.S. market's downturn, with significant declines in semiconductor and AI-related industries [3] Group 3 - The domestic economy is characterized by stronger price recovery than demand improvement, with mixed signals from various economic indicators [4] - Despite some positive signs, such as a rise in October CPI and a halt in PPI's negative growth, there are concerns about the low growth rate of social financing and a decline in real estate sales [4] - The government continues to implement "bottom-line" monetary and fiscal policies, including an expansion of technology innovation loans and early issuance of special bonds, although the overall stimulus expectations remain limited [4] Group 4 - The market outlook suggests continued volatility with a potential for stabilization, awaiting key decisions from the Central Economic Work Conference and clarity on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [5] - The current market adjustment may provide opportunities for mid-term positioning, especially if the market experiences overshooting [5]

黄金多头爆发，一路狂飙后，昨天进入50美金跌幅调整，震荡整理后，不改多头强势，今天再度上破， 继续看涨延续，挑战4200的关口。 下方可回踩4132的位置，关注此位置反弹。 看上方调整，以及反弹延续。 今天的走势 昨天震荡整理，多空反复激烈争夺后。 今天多头再起，涨破4160。 震荡上破，看涨不停。 上方又面临4170的区域，强势延续，上穿，看向4200-4210的区域。 当然了，4170附近，再遇阻调整。 今天消息面 数据洪流今天又来了，美失业金，美政府重启后的首个失业金指标。以及重点，美9月耐用品订单，和 房屋销售数据，或继续冲击美债美股市场，以及影响到美联储政策预期。 以及重点，今晚美联储褐皮书，美联储报告中的经济形势如何，这层迷雾或再度揭开，以及对于12月的 降息的态度，或影响市场动荡。 对于现货黄金的投资，方向和趋势的判断尤其重要。更重要的是入场点和出场点的把握能力，说白了就 是准确率，这个是能够实现稳健获利的必要的前提条件。这个不是一两本书，或者一两年功夫实操就可 以锻炼出来的。而是需要长时间实操和结果和经验。 同时对于仓位风险的把控能力，做到足够的低的风险，实现最大化的盈利的机会，这个是每个投资 ...

一、贵金属期货 纽约期金日内表现强势，先后突破4140美元/盎司、4150美元/盎司、4160美元/盎司和4170美元/盎司关 口，日内涨幅达1.32%[1][2][3][4][5]。 来源：喜娜AI 现货黄金同步走高，日内涨1.59%，突破4140美元/盎司[6][7]。 现货白银突破51美元/盎司，日内涨2.04%；纽约期银同步突破51美元/盎司，日内涨0.93%[8][9]。 二、能源与航运期货 WTI原油价格突破59美元/桶，日内涨幅1.64%[10]。 三、宏观与市场影响 美联储政策预期成为市场焦点，据CME"美联储观察"，12月降息25个基点的概率为82.9%，维持利率不 变的概率为17.1%；到明年1月累计降息50个基点的概率为22%[11]。 此外，旧金山联储主席戴利（2025年无FOMC投票权）公开支持12月降息[12]。 美国经济数据方面，三季度GDP初步预估报告已取消，美国经济分析局将于12月23日发布第三季度GDP 数据[13][14]；同时，美国领取失业救济金人数达197.4万，创四年新高[15]。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出 ...

Report Summary of Gold and Silver Futures 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 910 - 970 yuan/gram, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the medium - to - long term [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. Short - term silver prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 yuan/kg, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the medium - to - long term [33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. The core driving factors for the range - bound movement last week were fluctuations in US Treasury yields, differences in Fed policy expectations, and repeated market sentiment [7]. - **Trend Logic**: In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 910 - 970 yuan/gram. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to gradually rise, supported by the continued trend of central bank gold purchases globally and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was in short - term shock consolidation last week, with the upper pressure level at 960 - 970 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 will continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 960 - 970 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 910 - 920 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX Gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [20][23][25]. Silver Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. The core driving factors for the wide - range shock movement last week were differences in Fed policy expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and the game of continuous destocking of spot inventory [33]. - **Trend Logic**: In the short term, silver prices may continue to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to gradually rise, supported by the tight global silver supply - demand situation (low inventory + resilient industrial demand such as photovoltaics) and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [33]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Silver contract 2602 was in short - term shock consolidation last week, with the upper pressure level at 12,000 - 12,600 yuan/kg and the lower support level at 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/kg. It was recommended to wait and see [37]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Silver contract 2602 will continue to be in short - term shock consolidation, with the upper pressure level at 12,000 - 12,200 yuan/kg and the lower support level at 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/kg. It is recommended to wait and see [38]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX Silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [45][47][49].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index has led to a decline in international gold prices, with spot and futures prices dropping to around $4070 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:25, gold-related ETFs showed weakness, with 华夏黄金ETF (518850) down 0.58%, 有色金属ETF基金 (516650) down 0.87%, and 黄金股ETF (159562) down 0.94% [1] - The 华夏黄金ETF (518850) has seen significant capital inflow, accumulating over 983 million yuan in net inflows from October 30 to November 19 over 15 trading days [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials, which have reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - The upcoming release of the September US non-farm payroll data and subsequent economic indicators will directly impact market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, influencing the short-term trend of precious metals [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term uncertainties regarding the prospects for interest rate cuts in December, central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand are expected to support a long-term upward trend in precious metal prices [1] - Short-term market adjustments may continue, with a focus on the 60-day moving average for potential rebounds [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the strong performance of the US dollar, which saw a 0.5% increase in the spot index, marking its best single-day performance since September 25 [1] - The rebound in the dollar is primarily driven by market adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction, particularly due to changes in the release schedule of key US economic data [2][4] - The delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll report to December 16, along with the merging of October data into November, creates uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's policy-making process [3][5] Group 2 - Market participants now believe that the likelihood of an interest rate adjustment in December has significantly decreased, as there is insufficient data to justify such a move [5][8] - Analysts from major banks, including Bank of America and Wells Fargo, suggest that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates has increased due to the lack of timely economic data [5][8] - The collective weakness of non-US currencies further highlights the strength of the dollar, with the British pound experiencing a notable decline of 0.7% and other currencies like the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen also under pressure [9][10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, influenced by the performance of related ETFs and expectations regarding central bank gold purchases, despite short-term pressure from adjusted interest rate expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close of the Asian market, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.6%, reaching $4,093 per ounce [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed strong gains, with Huaxia ETF (518850) up by 1.78%, non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) up by 1.86%, and gold stock ETF (159562) up by 4.13% [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Goldman Sachs reported that global central bank gold purchases are ongoing, with an expected average monthly purchase of 80 tons from Q4 2025 to 2026 [1] - The increase in central bank gold purchases, along with the largest monthly inflow into Western gold ETFs since mid-2022 (112 tons), indicates strong demand from both central banks and retail investors [1] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [1] - Analysts from Baocheng Futures noted that the downward revision of interest rate expectations is largely due to previous market optimism, suggesting a potential return to data-driven analysis [1] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for September, as well as subsequent economic data, which will directly impact expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and the short-term trends in precious metals [1]