Group 1: Tariff Policy Dynamics - The recent US-China tariff truce has temporarily suppressed demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with gold prices dropping to $3,207 per ounce [3] - The tariff agreement, which includes a 90-day buffer period, alleviates concerns over escalating trade tensions, but uncertainty remains regarding future negotiations, potentially supporting gold prices in the long term [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Costs and Inflation Expectations - Tariff policies indirectly affect gold pricing by increasing cross-border trade costs and causing fluctuations in the premium for refined gold, with the London LBMA spot premium varying between $0.3 to $0.5 per ounce [4] - Recurrent global trade tensions could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, reinforcing gold's anti-inflation properties [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Crisis in the Middle East - Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, have heightened market fears and increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - Ongoing geopolitical events, including US engagements with Houthi forces and delays in Iran nuclear negotiations, have further boosted demand for gold as a "hard currency" [5] Group 4: Restructuring of Safe-Haven Assets - The appeal of US Treasuries and the US dollar as safe-haven assets has diminished, with gold emerging as the dominant safe-haven asset [6] - Gold prices reached historical highs, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, before experiencing a brief pullback to $3,255 per ounce, indicating sensitivity to geopolitical risks [6] Group 5: Market Structure Analysis - The US April CPI rose by 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, yet the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts, leading to conflicting market signals [7] - If inflation continues to decline, expectations for future rate cuts could support upward movement in gold prices [7] Group 6: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,000 and $2,960, while resistance levels are at $3,450 and $3,550 [8] - Current market indicators suggest a bullish trend, with potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are breached [8] Group 7: Market Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected due to the tariff policy buffer period and fluctuating risk appetite, which may lead to technical corrections in gold prices [8] - In the medium to long term, ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising recession risks, along with central bank gold purchases projected at 1,045 tons in 2024, indicate continued upward potential for gold [8] - Strategic recommendations include monitoring the $3,200-$3,300 support range for short-term opportunities and considering additional positions above $3,450 for long-term holders, targeting above $3,550 [8]

中美经贸谈判缓和避险情绪 据央视新闻报道,中美经贸高层会谈取得了重要且实质性的进展,并达成了关键共识。特朗普政府挑起的 贸易战,一直以来都是推动今年金价飙升的主要动力之一,此前更是将黄金价格推高至约 3500 美元 / 盎司 的历史高位。如今贸易战出现缓和迹象,这一消息极大地打击了市场对于黄金的避险需求。投资者的目 光迅速从黄金转向全球两大经济体谈判所带来的积极成果,资金也开始从黄金等避险资产流向股市等风 险资产。 5 月 12 日,黄金市场遭遇了一场 "周末风暴",此次周末期间,多起重大事件密集爆发,成为金价波动的导火 索。高地集团作为深耕金融市场的专业机构,在此为您深度解读此次金价波动背后的驱动因素,并对市场 走势作出分析。 央行购金潮延续支撑长期价值 从长期视角来看,央行持续购金的趋势并未改变。中国央行已连续 6 个月增持黄金,全球范围内,今年一季 度央行净购金量高达 244 吨。各国央行积极增持黄金,背后反映的是全球长期去美元化的大逻辑。在全 球经济、政局日益复杂的背景下,黄金作为一种可靠的保值资产,其在各国央行资产配置中的重要性愈发 凸显,这为黄金价格的长期走势提供了坚实支撑。 滞胀风险隐现提升黄金 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Fundamentals - Geopolitical risk premium is decreasing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand as investors recognize that current conflicts have not escalated into a full-blown energy supply crisis [3] - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) has seen a reduction in holdings, with a decrease of 18 tons from its peak on April 23, reflecting a weakening of institutional hedging [3] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate range of 5.25%-5.5% has surged to 91.7%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 8.3%, impacting gold's pricing logic [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - After reaching a historical high of $3500.12 on April 22, gold experienced a significant sell-off, with a single-day drop of $130 due to profit-taking and technical resistance [5] - The COMEX gold futures open interest peaked at over 600,000 contracts, leading to a 25% decrease in net long positions following the price drop [5] - Current short-term technical indicators suggest a high probability of further price declines in gold, with a recommendation for investors to consider short positions near resistance levels [6][7] Group 3: Silver Market Technical Analysis - Silver prices are currently fluctuating within a defined range, with a focus on the 1-hour cycle indicating a sideways movement [9] - Investors are advised to wait for a breakout above $33.160 to go long or a breakdown below $32.050 to go short, with stop-loss and take-profit levels set at $0.640 [9]