Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short-term cost support, limited rebound space under weak supply-demand pattern, likely to fluctuate in the bottom range [4] - Inter-period: LL01 - 05 sell high and buy low; PP01 - 05 sell high and buy low [4] - Inter-variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - PE faces supply pressure due to low maintenance, new capacity release, and entering the demand off-season, resulting in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited short-term rebound space [2] - PP has a short-term weak supply-demand situation, with supply pressure from existing devices and insufficient demand follow - up. The expected rebound height of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to cost disturbances [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures display plastic and polypropylene main contracts and LL East China basis [11][8] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit (crude oil), PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit (crude oil), PP production profit (PDH method), polypropylene capacity utilization rate, and PP weekly output are presented [16][19][25] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China price differences are shown [6][29][32] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL and PP import and export profits, as well as price differences between overseas regions and China, are provided [37][41][57] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film operating rates, PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, and injection molding operating rates, and PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP production gross margins are presented [58][63][70] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE and PP inventory in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [72][77][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; LL and PP 01 - 05 spread trading: Sell high and buy back; 05 - 09 spread trading: Buy low and sell high; Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand weakness restricts the rebound space of the polyolefin market. For PE, the supply is abundant while the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a limited short - term rebound. For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, and the expected rebound height of the futures price is limited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,831 yuan/ton (+28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,410 yuan/ton (+13). The LL spot prices in North China and East China are 6,750 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,880 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The PP spot price in East China is 6,350 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 81 yuan/ton (-28), in East China is 49 yuan/ton (-28), and the PP basis in East China is - 60 yuan/ton (-13) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 84.5% (+1.8%), and the PP operating rate is 78.1% (-0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 316.1 yuan/ton (+4.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 453.9 yuan/ton (+4.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 596.6 yuan/ton (-35.0) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 44.1 yuan/ton (+3.0), the PP import profit is - 230.6 yuan/ton (+2.9), and the PP export profit is - 22.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 49.0% (-0.9%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.7% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.1% (-0.1%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: In the first half of 2026, the domestic PE production capacity expansion slows down significantly. The supply pressure mainly comes from the high output of existing plants. The supply is continuously abundant, while the downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory - clearing pressure is large. The overall downstream demand shows a downward trend, and the cost support is relatively limited. The short - term rebound space of plastics is limited [2] - **PP**: The weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, and the basis continues to fluctuate at a low level. The supply pressure mainly comes from existing plants. The downstream overall operating rate is expected to weaken gradually, and the demand follow - up is insufficient. The expected rebound height of the futures price is limited, and attention should be paid to the cost - end disturbances [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures have returned to a weak trend. Although the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level and demand is steadily released, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LL) - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6707, 6768, and 6812 respectively, down 55, 52, and 43 from the prices two days ago, with declines of -0.81%, -0.76%, and -0.63% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 396126, 147085, and 1807 respectively, and the open interests were 497599, 221698, and 3858 respectively. The changes in open interest were +9240, +22622, and +574 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -61, -44, and 105 respectively, compared with -58, -35, and 93 previously [2] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6265, 6367, and 6430 respectively, down 52, 53, and 48 from the prices two days ago, with declines of -0.82%, -0.83%, and -0.74% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 442760, 138529, and 3752 respectively, and the open interests were 586572, 243957, and 11593 respectively. The changes in open interest were -19187, +35651, and +1074 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -102, -63, and 165 respectively, compared with -103, -58, and 161 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - **Prices**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2098 yuan/ton, 6075 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6140 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared with 2071 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton previously [2] Spot Market - **LL**: The current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively, remaining the same as before except for a slight change in the South China market's upper - limit price [2] - **PP**: The current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from before [2] Consumption Information - On Wednesday (November 26), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.65 per barrel, up $0.70 from the previous trading day, a 1.21% increase, with a trading range of $57.66 - $58.72. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.13 per barrel, up $0.65 from the previous trading day, a 1.04% increase, with a trading range of $62.11 - $63.20 [2]

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated November 27, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today due to oversupply, weak downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventories [4][6] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply shortage to oversupply, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for agricultural films has declined, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6810 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 103, with a premium ratio of 1.5%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 tons (-2.5), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the China-US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors include weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing sentiment declined in October. After the China-US leaders' meeting, relevant policies were adjusted, and OPEC+ led to a drop in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6350 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 85, with a premium ratio of 1.4%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.4 tons (-2.6), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factors are the same as those for LLDPE. Bearish factors also include weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro policies [7] Spot and Futures Market - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6810 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6707 (-55), and the basis is 103. The import price in US dollars is 775 (unchanged), and the import price converted to the domestic market is 6758 (unchanged) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6350 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6265 (-52), and the basis is 85. The import price in US dollars is 760 (unchanged), and the import price converted to the domestic market is 6630 (unchanged) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost - side support. For PE, there is supply pressure due to the release of new production capacity and the approaching of the demand off - season, while for PP, the supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term, and the cost - side support shows different trends for different production methods [1][2] - The recommended strategies are to cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, maintain a neutral stance on PP, conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton (- 31), PP main contract at 6317 yuan/ton (- 55), LL North China spot at 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0), LL East China spot at 6900 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot at 6360 yuan/ton (- 20), LL North China basis at 38 yuan/ton (+ 31), LL East China basis at 138 yuan/ton (+ 31), PP East China basis at 43 yuan/ton (+ 35) [1] - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 82.7% (- 0.4%), PP operating rate was 78.3% (- 1.3%) [1] - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 296.4 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 463.6 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PDH - based PP production profit was - 414.4 yuan/ton (- 21.4) [1] - Imports and exports: LL import profit was - 11.1 yuan/ton (+ 10.3), PP import profit was - 231.8 yuan/ton (- 10.1), PP export profit was 2.8 US dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1] - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 49.9% (- 0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.9% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.2% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Supply - side device maintenance has increased slightly, but new production capacity is being released, and demand is entering the off - season. Cost - side support from oil - based production has weakened due to the decline in oil prices [2] - PP: The supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term. Although maintenance devices have increased, it has limited impact on the oversupply situation. Demand is also weakening, and the cost - side support for oil - based production has weakened while that for PDH has strengthened [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, neutral on PP [3] - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [3] - Cross - variety: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and the market may continue the low - level oscillation trend in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6793, 6845, and 6880 respectively, with price increases of 23, 14, and 3 and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.20%, and 0.04% respectively. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6372, 6474, and 6519, with price increases of 15, 0, and 2 and percentage increases of 0.24%, 0.00%, and 0.03% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 334461, 107016, and 1244 respectively, and the open interests were 497429, 176591, and 2688 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15317, 25839, and 129 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 374416, 95707, and 1999 respectively, and the open interests were 605178, 183032, and 10073 respectively, with open interest changes of - 21657, 21079, and 206 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 52, - 35, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of - 61, - 46, and 107. For PP, the current spreads are - 102, - 45, and 147 respectively, compared with previous values of - 117, - 43, and 160 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2082 yuan/ton, 5925 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the ranges are 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] Consumption Information - On Monday (November 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.84 per barrel, up $0.78 or 1.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.42 - $59.06. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.37 per barrel, up $0.81 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.56 [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for LLDPE and PP is bearish, with expectations of weak and volatile trends today. The main factors include an oversupply situation, a decline in manufacturing PMI, limited support from the cost side of crude oil, and relatively high industrial inventories. However, the recent rebound in oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the phased easing of Sino-US relations may provide some support [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but inventory replenishment for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6750 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -55, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, recent Sino - US talks, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PE is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term pattern of crude oil remains unchanged in terms of cost support. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 29, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. Considering the oversupply in the fundamentals, Sino - US talks, the rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PP is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - PE continues its weak pattern due to high supply, limited demand support from downstream sectors like agricultural film, and a lack of significant macro - level boosts. The cost support from oil - based production is weakening, and inventory clearance under high supply remains challenging [2]. - PP remains in a weak pattern in the short term, with its upward movement suppressed by supply - demand factors and weak cost support. However, as PDH profits are currently low, attention should be paid to upstream device production cut dynamics and macro trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, and PP East China basis [8][9] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit from crude oil and PE capacity utilization are presented. The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PE oil - based production profit is 288.7 yuan/ton (+41.3) [17][1][20] - PP production profit from crude oil, PDH - based PP production profit, polypropylene capacity utilization, and PP weekly output are shown. The PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%), the PP oil - based production profit is - 351.3 yuan/ton (+41.3), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 121.6 yuan/ton (-46.7) [20][1][21] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures related to HD injection - LL East China, HD hollow - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, and LD East China - LL are provided [30][33] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit, LL export profit, and various price differences related to LL import and export are presented. The LL import profit is - 12.7 yuan/ton (+57.1) [45][1][53] - PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and various price differences related to PP import and export are shown. The PP import profit is - 284.1 yuan/ton (+34.1), and the PP export profit is - 7.0 dollars/ton (+1.1) [60][1][52] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, and PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, and injection molding operating rate are presented. The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.8% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.5% (+0.9%) [66][1][65] - PP downstream plastic weaving production profit and BOPP production profit are also shown [72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures related to PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, and PE port inventory are provided [77][80] - PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory are presented [86][83] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [4] - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [4] - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE: Neutral; PP: Cautiously short on rallies [3] - L01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies [3] - Cross -品种: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: The pattern of weak supply and demand continues. The short - term polyethylene futures is dominated by the cost side and continues the volatile pattern. High supply, limited demand support, and weak cost - side support lead to weak and volatile PE [2]. - PP: The supply - demand contradiction still exists. The previous weak propane on the cost side and the lack of macro - level boost lead to a weak pattern. Supply - side pressure persists, demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6888元/吨（-11）, PP主力合约收盘价为6576元/吨（-14）, LL华北现货为6890元/吨（-10）, LL华东现货为7000元/吨（-20）, PP华东现货为6580元/吨（+0）, LL华北基差为2元/吨（+1）, LL华东基差为112元/吨（-9）, PP华东基差为4元/吨（+14） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为283.4元/吨（-54.1）, PP油制生产利润为 - 396.6元/吨（-54.1）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 152.1元/吨（-55.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为18.8元/吨（-51.6）, PP进口利润为 - 292.8元/吨（-11.4）, PP出口利润为 - 16.5美元/吨（+1.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is limited, the cost - side support is expected to weaken, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction exists. The supply - side pressure persists, the demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE neutral; PP cautiously short on rallies [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: L01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies [3]. - **Cross -品种**: None [3]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - L2601 opened higher, oscillated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,968 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.29%), with a trading volume of 215,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 3,569 lots to 508,700 lots [5] - PP2601 closed at 6,651 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (-0.21%), with an open interest increase of 677 lots to 613,335 lots [5] - On October 30, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 695,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 720,000 tons [7] - PE market prices were weakly sorted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,910 - 7,150 yuan/ton, 7,030 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and 7,250 - 7,500 yuan/ton respectively [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 5,930 - 5,950 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day [7] - The PP market was mainly sorted, with individual prices slightly loosening. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6,450 - 6,540 yuan/ton, 6,530 - 6,620 yuan/ton, and 6,470 - 6,630 yuan/ton respectively [7] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The futures opened higher and oscillated, but the market atmosphere was limitedly boosted. Traders quoted prices according to the market, and some quoted prices weakened. Downstream buyers mainly replenished stocks at low prices [5] - The expected output of the new Guangxi Petrochemical plant in November is expected to increase, and the impact of maintenance from November to December will decrease. Although the downstream operating rate remains high, the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the demand support will weaken [5] - Affected by the new round of US sanctions, the market sentiment is cautious, the oil price is under pressure, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefin itself will cause the price to oscillate at a low level [5]