建筑装饰 2025 年 05 月 08 日 板块收入、利润承压，刺激政策亟待发力 看好 ——建筑装饰 2024&25Q1 财报综述 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 ⚫ 2024&25Q1 建筑行业收入和利润承压。2024 年建筑行业主要上市公司实现 营业收入 8.18 万亿，同比-3.70%，归母净利润 1684 亿，同比-14.6%， 2025Q1 实现营业收入 1.84 万亿，同比-6.13%，归母净利润 445 亿，同比- 8.78%。综合看，2024&2025Q1 建筑企业收入、利润有所承压，一方面受地 方政府债务压力及房地产行业下行等因素影响，另一方面则与建筑企业根据市 场形势 ...

Core Viewpoint - TCL Zhonghuan is facing significant challenges in the photovoltaic industry due to structural adjustments in production capacity and irrational competition, leading to a sharp decline in product prices and a downturn in financial performance [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, TCL Zhonghuan reported operating revenue of 28.419 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.95% [1] - The company incurred a net loss of 9.818 billion yuan [1] - Despite losses, the company maintained positive operating cash flow, with 3.95 billion yuan in net cash flow from operations in 2024 and 490 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [4][5] Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is currently in a downward cycle, with prices expected to stabilize after a period of demand surge [1][2] - TCL Zhonghuan anticipates that the industry will continue to grow in the long term, emphasizing the necessity of capacity reduction and industry self-discipline [1] Cost Reduction Strategies - The company is focusing on cost reduction in silicon wafer production, achieving a cost advantage of 3%-5% over the second and third tiers of competitors, and 2%-3% over first-tier competitors [2] - Significant progress has been made in reducing costs through advancements in technology and production efficiency [2] Strategic Adjustments - TCL Zhonghuan is diversifying its product offerings in the battery module segment, moving beyond its previous focus on bifacial products to meet market standards [2][3] - The company aims to expand its presence in overseas markets, particularly in Europe and the United States, while enhancing its brand capabilities [3] Global Expansion - The company is actively pursuing a global strategy, establishing partnerships for overseas production capacity, including a collaboration with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund to build a large-scale crystal wafer factory [3] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow Management - No new domestic photovoltaic projects are planned for the next two years, with capital expenditures focused on semiconductor materials and ongoing projects [4] - The company is committed to maintaining positive operating cash flow through cost improvements and effective management of current assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy giant Yili (600887.SH) has ended its 30-year growth streak due to unprecedented industry pressures, with significant declines in revenue and profit expected in 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Yili's 2024 revenue is projected to be 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.24%, while net profit is expected to drop to 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.9% [2]. - In Q4, Yili made a substantial impairment provision of 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a quarterly loss of 2.42 billion yuan, further pressuring annual profits [3]. Impairment and Asset Valuation - A major component of the impairment was a goodwill write-down of 3.04 billion yuan related to the acquisition of Ausnutria (1717.HK), which has seen a significant decline in performance [4]. - Other impairment provisions included 1.23 billion yuan for inventory and 370 million yuan for fixed assets due to market demand changes and technological obsolescence [5]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry has faced negative retail growth since 2022, with a 2.7% decline in overall sales in 2024, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [9][10]. - Yili's liquid milk segment saw a revenue drop of 12.3% in 2024, with a decrease in both sales volume and price [11]. Market Strategy - To protect distributor profits, Yili began channel inventory clearance in Q2 2024, leading to a significant revenue drop of 16.5% in Q2, which narrowed to 6.7% in Q3 [12][13]. - By Q3, Yili completed channel clean-up, stabilizing sales during peak seasons [14]. Future Outlook - Yili anticipates a potential turnaround in 2025, with Q1 revenue showing a slight increase of 1.35% and net profit rising by 24.19% [17]. - The company remains cautious about demand recovery, projecting only a 2.8% increase in full-year revenue for 2025 [18]. Market Share and Growth Engines - Yili's liquid milk revenue has stagnated, with a slight increase to 85.54 billion yuan in 2023, but its market share in this segment is declining [21][22]. - Conversely, the infant formula segment is experiencing growth, with a 7.53% increase in revenue to 29.675 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rising birth rates [26][29]. Diversification Efforts - Yili is exploring diversification beyond dairy, including launching new tea and mineral water products, while also focusing on functional dairy products [40][43]. - The company is also investing in health-related sectors and has established a venture capital fund targeting high-tech innovations in the health industry [48].

房地产 2025 年 04 月 30 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250430）：南京土拍收金超百亿 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8/2 24/10/13 24/12/24 25/3/6 子行业评级 | 和运营 | | | --- | --- | | 房 地 产 开 发 房地产服务 | 无评级 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250429）：招 商建管携手招商蛇口苏南公司获取 昆山开发区项目>>--2025-04-29 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250428）：杭 州 6 宗涉宅用地出让>>--2025-04-28 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250425）：合 肥出让 6 宗地块>>--2025-04-25 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 178.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.04 billion yuan, down 36.1% year-on-year [4][6]. - The decline in net profit relative to revenue growth is attributed to a decrease in gross profit margin to 14.61% from 15.89% and a significant increase in asset impairment losses [6]. - The company has focused on core cities, achieving a sales area of 9.36 million square meters and a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan, ranking first in several key cities [6]. - The company has maintained a strong financial position with cash and cash equivalents of 100.35 billion yuan at the end of 2024, and its debt ratios are within safe limits [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue 175.01 billion yuan, Net Profit 6.32 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue 178.95 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.04 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue 166.78 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.34 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue 159.94 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.79 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue 163.30 billion yuan, Net Profit 5.41 billion yuan [3][7]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) projections: - 2024A: 0.45 yuan - 2025E: 0.48 yuan - 2026E: 0.53 yuan - 2027E: 0.60 yuan [3][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total land price of approximately 48.6 billion yuan, focusing 90% of its investment in core cities [6]. - The company’s investment in first-tier cities accounted for 59% of total investments, indicating a strategic focus on urban development [6]. - The company is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months, reflecting confidence in its market position [9].

房地产行业 公 司 点 增持（维持） 滨江集团（002244）2024 年年报点评 销售排名持续提升，业绩稳健 2025 年 4 月 28 日 投资要点： S0340513040001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn | 分析师：何敏仪 | | | --- | --- | | SAC 执业证书编号： | | | S0340513040001 | | | 电话：0769-22177163 | 公 | | 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn | 司 研 | | 主要数据 2025 年 4 | 究 月 25 日 | | 收盘价(元) | 9.99 | | 总市值（亿元） | 310.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 31.11 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 26.82 | | ROE（TTM） | 9.25% | | 12 月最高价(元) | 12.44 | | 12 月最低价(元) | 5.73 | | 股价走势 | 证 | | 券 | 研 究 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息 ...

2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 12 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 13 | | 纯碱： | | 14 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 14 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米： | | 24 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the report, but it indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the overall return is expected to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is experiencing mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 showing slight increases, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and other indices have declined [4]. - The report notes significant movements in individual stocks within the real estate sector, with notable gains from companies like China Wuyi and Hualian Holdings, while companies like Guangyu Group and Hainan Express experienced substantial declines [5]. - Recent industry news includes Shanghai Real Estate's bond issuance project being updated to "accepted" status, indicating ongoing financing activities within the sector [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of April 15, 2025, the overall performance of the equity market is mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.15% and the Shenwan Real Estate Index declining by 0.86% [4]. Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector include China Wuyi (up 2.17%), Hualian Holdings (up 1.94%), and others, while the largest decliners include Guangyu Group (down 7.72%) and Hainan Express (down 5.88%) [5]. Industry News - Shanghai Real Estate Investment Co. is set to issue a total of 5.535 billion RMB in corporate bonds, while Science City Investment Group plans to issue a 2-year USD bond with an initial guidance rate of around 6.00% [6].

龙湖资料图。 标普惠誉为何先后下调龙湖评级？ 王琳 风云变幻的房地产市场中，曾经的房企优等生也难以独善其身。 3月7日，龙湖集团发布盈利警告公告，2024年，龙湖集团剔除投资物业及其他衍生金融工具 公平值变动影响后的股东应占核心溢利预计录得约35%至40%的下降，2023年这一数据是 113.5亿元，照此计算，2024年这一数据预计为68.1亿元至73.8亿元。 对于下降原因，龙湖集团称，主要由于受房地产行业下行的影响，公司地产开发业务的结算 收入及结算毛利率下降所致。 在此之前的3月5日，标普将龙湖集团的长期发行人信用评级从"BB+"下调至"BB"，同时，标 普将该公司的高级无抵押票据的长期发行评级从"BB"下调至"BB-"。2024年10月，惠誉将龙 湖集团的长期外币发行人违约评级(IDR)、高级无抵押评级及其未偿高级票据评级从"BB+"下 调至"BB"，对IDR的展望为负面。 评级下调反映了评级机构对龙湖集团未来偿债能力和运营状况的担忧，可能进一步增加其融 资成本与市场压力。在房地产行业的下行大势中，龙湖集团努力通过多元化业务布局和降杠 杆策略来应对挑战，尽管相对稳健，但仍难以完全抵御行业整体下滑带来的 ...