Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth - Multiple departments are focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1][2] - The contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan for consumer upgrades and plans to release another 690 billion yuan in October, aiming to complete a total of 300 billion yuan for the year [2][3] Group 2: New Quality Productivity - High-tech industry sales revenue increased by 14.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating robust growth in innovative industries [4] - The NDRC emphasizes the need to cultivate new quality productivity and promote the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is focusing on enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand [4][5] - The government is utilizing various policy tools, including special funds and tax incentives, to support the transformation of traditional industries and the development of emerging industries [5] Group 3: Anti-Competition Measures - The NDRC is advancing the construction of a unified national market to eliminate "involutionary" competition and promote healthy development of the private economy [6][7] - The MIIT is working to consolidate the achievements in regulating "involutionary" competition in the new energy vehicle sector and other key industries [6][7] - The People's Bank of China is supporting the resolution of structural contradictions in key industries to promote quality upgrades [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]

Group 1: Interest Rate Bonds - During the period from July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 23,438.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 21,315.00 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2,123.00 billion yuan[2] - The overall interbank funding prices increased, with DR001 rising by 6.08 basis points to 1.5174% and DR007 increasing by 14.56 basis points to 1.6523%[2] - In the primary market, the issuance of interest rate bonds totaled 9,398.05 billion yuan, with total maturing bonds amounting to 7,306.36 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of 2,091.69 billion yuan[2] - The yields on government bonds for various maturities increased: 1-year up by 3.45 basis points to 1.3835%, 3-year up by 7.34 basis points to 1.4777%, 5-year up by 7.92 basis points to 1.6048%, 7-year up by 7.31 basis points to 1.6926%, and 10-year up by 6.72 basis points to 1.7324%[2] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread widened from 31.62 basis points to 34.89 basis points[2] Group 2: Credit Bonds - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, a total of 956 credit bonds were newly issued (including interbank certificates of deposit), with an issuance scale of 12,074.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,330.33 billion yuan compared to the previous period[3] - The total repayment of credit bonds was 14,553.08 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -2,478.24 billion yuan[3] - Among the newly issued bonds, the AAA-rated bonds accounted for 5,334.28 billion yuan, representing 77.67% of the total issuance[3] - The yields on city investment bonds increased overall, with the 3-year AA-rated bonds experiencing the largest rise of 12.27 basis points[3] - The yields on medium-term notes also increased, with the 10-year AAA-rated bonds rising by 11.99 basis points[3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Interest Rate Bonds**: From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank funds and exchange funds rose. The primary market of interest rate bonds had a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, and the term spreads widened [1][15][33]. - **Credit Bonds**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of - 247.824 billion yuan. The yields of credit bonds, including urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes, increased overall. One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during the week [2][58][60]. - **Major Asset Weekly Observation**: During July 18 - July 25, 2025, most European and American stock indexes rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds were differentiated. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies strengthened. Crude oil and gold prices declined [3][62][72]. 3. Investment Recommendations The July Politburo meeting is expected to focus on the dual main lines of "stable growth" and "structural adjustment": - **Stable Growth and Domestic Demand Expansion**: The economic growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, providing room for the annual target of 5%. In the second half, the pressure of stable growth is relatively controllable. The key is to give full play to the effectiveness of existing policies and appropriately introduce incremental policies [4][76]. - **Structural Adjustment**: Measures such as rectifying local protectionism and improving the market access and exit mechanism are expected to be detailed. The ten - industry stable growth plans announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to be implemented intensively [4][77]. - **Real Estate Market**: Multi - dimensional measures may be taken on both the supply and demand sides. The supply side will clarify the standards for "good houses", and the demand side may relax the purchase threshold [77]. - **Capital Market**: Long - term funds are encouraged to enter the market. The delisting system of listed companies will be improved, and supervision will be strengthened [78]. - **Livelihood Field**: Stable employment is the core. New employment opportunities will be created through "two new and two important" projects [79]. - **Stabilizing Foreign Investment and Expanding Opening - up**: Policies will focus on stabilizing foreign investment and expanding opening - up in parallel to cope with the pressure of tariff reconstruction [79]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Layout**: The meeting may announce the time of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and review the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, with new productive forces as the strategic focus [79]. Investors should pay attention to the main lines of consumer service, new impetus for infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and capital market reform, and be vigilant against external tariff shocks. For the bond market, it is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy, adjust the duration flexibly, and seize trading opportunities [4][80]. 4. Summary by Relevant Directory 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Liquidity Observation**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank and exchange funds rose. For example, DR001 rose 6.08BP to 1.5174%, and GC001 rose 3.00BP to 1.4130% [15][19][21]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the primary market of interest rate bonds issued 939.805 billion yuan, with a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased [27]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 31.62BP to 34.89BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 23.82BP to 28.57BP [33][34]. 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, 956 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 1207.483 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 133.033 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest proportion of issuance volume, and AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.67% of the total issuance scale. The issuance was mainly short - term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][50]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes increased overall. The 3 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest increase of 12.27BP, and the 10 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increase of 11.99BP [58]. - **One - Week Credit Default Event Review**: One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during July 21 - July 27, 2025 [60]. 4.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation - **Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.02%. Among European stock indexes, the German DAX Index fell 0.30%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.15%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 1.43% [3][62][63]. - **Differentiated Yields of US Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year US Treasury bonds rose, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by - 5.00BP to 31.00BP [65]. - **Weakening US Dollar Index and Strengthening Non - US Currencies**: The US dollar index fell 0.80%. The pound sterling, euro, and Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar [70]. - **Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices**: The prices of COMEX gold futures and London spot gold fell. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also declined [72].

Group 1 - Multiple chemical sectors are entering a new round of expansion, with the adhesive tape base film industry expected to reach a peak production period in August and the n-butanol industry set to add 250,000 tons of capacity in the second half of the year [1] - The n-butanol industry is experiencing a decline in price due to accelerated new capacity coming online, with an expected total capacity exceeding 7 million tons by 2029 [2] - The adhesive tape base film industry is also entering a rapid expansion phase, with a projected capacity of 4.2597 million tons by July 2025, and nearly 20 new production lines planned for August [2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" actions are expected to drive technological upgrades and industry consolidation through the supply chain, impacting the long-term landscape [3] - Companies in the adhesive tape base film sector are reducing production loads to alleviate short-term supply pressures, while n-butanol companies are accelerating technological upgrades to enhance product value [3] - As policies are implemented, inefficient capacities are expected to exit the market, allowing companies with technological and supply chain advantages to dominate [3]

Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated July 29, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, due to cost support, macro - policy push, but weak demand, the market is expected to oscillate today [4][6] - For PP, with cost support and macro - policy push, yet weak demand, it is also expected to show an oscillating trend today [7][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a stable - growth plan. The downstream demand is weak, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7370 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, considered neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), a bearish factor [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy push; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [6] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI and Caixin PMI showed certain trends. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high temperature and heavy rain. The current PP delivery spot price is 7150 (-50), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), a bearish factor [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, it is expected to oscillate today [7] - **Factors**: Bullish factors are cost support and macro - policy push; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7370 (+0), the 09 - contract price is 7335 (-121), the basis is 35, and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4) [4][9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7150 (-50), the 09 - contract price is 7130 (-91), the basis is 20, and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5) [7][9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. showed different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. changed over time. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 [16]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Price Index - The wholesale and retail price indices for agricultural products in Zibo have shown a decline this week, with notable fluctuations in vegetables and fruits [1][2][3] - Cabbage prices increased, with a wholesale average of 0.80 yuan per jin, up 0.10 yuan per jin (14.29%) from last week, due to reduced supply and seasonal factors [1] - Tomato prices decreased, with a wholesale average of 2.20 yuan per jin, down 0.10 yuan per jin (4.35%), attributed to increased supply from greenhouses [1] - Eggplant prices rose significantly, with a wholesale average of 1.20 yuan per jin, up 0.30 yuan per jin (33.33%), due to reduced supply from weather conditions [2] - Cabbage prices also increased, with a wholesale average of 0.70 yuan per jin, up 0.20 yuan per jin (40%), due to reduced inventory [2] - Pear prices decreased slightly, with a wholesale average of 3.23 yuan per jin, down 0.02 yuan per jin (0.62%), as the market remains stable [3] Group 2: Chemical Products Price Index - The Zibo chemical products price index is at 717.63, down 0.77 from the previous period, indicating a slight decline [4] - The basic chemical products price index increased slightly to 704.03, up 0.04, due to market confidence despite falling international oil prices [4] - The plastic products price index decreased to 747.10, down 2.51, influenced by weak demand and fluctuating raw material prices [4][5] - The rubber products price index increased to 548.32, up 8.70, driven by strong market conditions for synthetic rubber [5] Group 3: New Materials Price Index - The new materials price index is at 808.71, down 3.49 from the previous period, reflecting a downward trend [6] - The PC price index decreased to 766.04, down 3.78, due to stable raw material prices and limited demand [6] - The PET bottle chip price index increased to 907.91, up 11.00, supported by positive macroeconomic news despite cautious downstream demand [6] Group 4: Natural Gas Price Index - The average LNG market price in Zibo is 4562 yuan per ton, down 72 yuan per ton (1.55%) from last week, due to increased supply [7] - The liquid natural gas price index is expected to continue declining, while the pipeline natural gas index remains unchanged [7] Group 5: Cement Price Index - The average price for various types of cement in Zibo remains stable, with no significant changes reported [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides price support. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The recent strengthening of most commodities is due to the upcoming release of a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan or 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 56 yuan or 3.24%), and UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan or 3.84%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices increased, such as in Shandong (up 20 yuan or 1.10% to 1,830 yuan/ton), Henan (up 30 yuan or 1.66% to 1,840 yuan/ton), and Hebei (up 30 yuan or 1.69% to 1,800 yuan/ton). Only the price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained stable at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or - 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained stable at 5,200 yuan/ton [1]. b. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan [1]. - The spread between 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [1]. c. Trading Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,790 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,818 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,790 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,812 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,807 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 195,945 lots [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may decline compared to the first half, with a policy focus shifting towards structural adjustments. Despite this, the A-share market remains strong due to stable capital market expectations, anti-involution policies, and the positive impact of technology and trade negotiations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Market Stability - The consensus is that achieving the annual economic growth target is feasible, with a shift in policy focus towards structural adjustments. This suggests that the economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 may be weaker than in the first half, and expectations for growth-stabilizing policies should be moderated [1]. - Stable capital market policies have created a "buffer" against macroeconomic disturbances, leading to a perception that the downside risks for the A-share market are manageable. Even in adverse economic conditions, timely policy responses can mitigate risks [1][2]. - The anti-involution policies have connected short-term economic highlights with mid-term supply-demand improvements, allowing for smoother transitions in the market dynamics between upstream cycles and midstream manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the conditions for a market breakout are expected to be more favorable, with fundamental expectations shifting towards 2026. This could accelerate the market's reflection of improved supply-demand dynamics and profitability [3]. - The year 2025 is projected to be a peak for the repricing of household deposits, creating a critical window for reallocating assets, which may lead to natural increments in certain investment products that have limited dependence on stock market performance [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The focus of investment is shifting towards undervalued cyclical stocks in the short term, while mid-term opportunities lie in midstream manufacturing that benefits from supply clearing and anti-involution policies [4]. - The AI computing power industry is showing significant improvement, with domestic profit effects expanding, indicating continued investment opportunities in this sector [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a potential leader in the next bull market, with ongoing interest in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, alongside high dividend stocks as attractive investment options [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are characterized by the resonance of macro and news factors, while the real - world fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The fundamentals of stainless steel show that macro expectations boost the market, but the actual supply - demand situation still exerts a drag. The price of nickel and stainless steel is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamentals - Macro and news factors improve market sentiment, with policies potentially adjusting the structure and optimizing supply. The Indonesian APNI Association suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, which may increase smelting costs. However, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in July has affected the supply side, and the acceptance of high smelting prices in the ternary sector is low [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - U.S. tariffs suppress the terminal demand for stainless steel, but domestic policy expectations boost the market. The real - world supply - demand situation has turned into a double - weak state, with weekly inventory slightly decreasing. The production schedule in July shows a decline in China and an increase in Indonesia. The high - cost cash cost of Indonesian stainless steel has decreased, and the high inventory of nickel - iron pressures its valuation [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. The mid - July nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. On July 17, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.69% week - on - week. China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9.4836 million wet tons [3][4][6]. Market News - There are various events such as the potential halt of nickel exports from Ontario to the U.S., the successful trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, the shutdown and maintenance of a cold - rolling mill, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, the plan to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, and the suspension of production of some nickel - iron EF lines due to losses [7][8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and related price differences of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel products [11].