Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

一是在"资产荒"背景下，市场对高弹性稀缺资产的强烈渴求。在当前利率下行、房地产投资属性减弱的 宏观背景下，能够带来可观回报的优质权益资产变得尤为珍贵，而永赢基金的"智选"系列产品高度清 晰、纯粹的产品定位，恰好满足了投资者对精准捕捉低空经济、人工智能等前沿趋势的工具性需求。 不可否认，永赢的崛起离不开对时代机遇的精准捕捉，它敏锐地抓住了两大风口： 而高度工具化的产品，则更像是一个个性能优异但功能单一的精密零件。基金公司将零件的性能参数 (投资方向、风险收益特征)标注清晰，这无疑降低了投资者的决策成本，是行业的进步，但硬币的另一 面是，零件的选择便利实则将组装整车的复杂性与选择权，更多地交给了投资者一端。 对于少数专业投资者，这是一个更高效、更自由的工具箱，但对于占据绝大多数的普通投资者而言，一 场"能力的错配"正在悄然发生。他们或许能够清晰地判断自己是否看好人工智能，却未必具备将这 一"零件"与其他不同属性的资产进行科学配置、动态再平衡，并构建一个稳健投资组合的专业能力。 在一年多时间内将权益规模从不足百亿元推升至超千亿元，永赢基金的爆发在整个中国公募基金史上都 堪称现象级，但这不仅是一家公司的成功突围，更像 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 国债期货周报 | | 唐立 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | 报告导读： | | | | | ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 国债期货长端合约周度回落。 ◼ 周内全球权益市场回调，出现流动性危机信号。 ◼ 维持中期大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡分化格局，短端品种相对稳定，长端品种受政策预期与权益市场扰动波动 加剧。央行重启 8000 亿元 6 个月期买断式逆回购操作，释放流动性呵护信号，但政策协同效应（如专项 债发行）削弱了供给冲击。展望未来，利率债与国债期货的分歧点将在于政策上对于内需激发、反内卷的 期待与宏观基本面相对疲弱下的交织情景。整体看移仓换 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PR, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, asphalt, short - term corn, M05 of soybean meal, PVC, PP, some petrochemical products [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Index, Treasury bonds, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, precious metals, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon carbide, glass, pure alkali, coking coal, coke, cotton, pulp, logs, crude oil, fuel oil, short - term soybean oil, long - term tin [1] 2. Core Views - The current macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. A - share lacks a clear upward trend, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation has cooled down, affecting the prices of various commodities, but different commodities have different responses based on their own fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: Short - term market differences will be digested during fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the rise [1] Commodity Markets - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooling affects prices. Copper price decline is limited; aluminum price fluctuates at a high level; zinc has support below; nickel price fluctuates downward; stainless steel needs to pay attention to production; tin is bullish in the long - term [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound; PTA production declines; ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors; PP and PVC are bearish; LPG fundamentals are stable [1] - **Agricultural Products**: New energy vehicle demand is strong, but lithium carbonate has upward pressure; cotton market is in a state of "support but no driver"; corn, soybean meal, and other grains have different price trends; pulp and logs have limited upward space; livestock products such as pigs have over - capacity issues [1] - **Building Materials and Metals**: Rebar and iron ore are affected by supply and demand and macro factors; coking coal and coke are affected by steel prices and supply - demand relationships; glass and pure alkali have limited upward space [1] - **Fuel and Oil Products**: Crude oil price fluctuates; fuel oil follows crude oil; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound [1]

陈逸来认为，一是成本优势。ETF等指数产品的运作成本更低，这在低利率环境下至关重要。成本端的节省成为低收益环境中 增厚回报的关键因素。 二是提供相对具有确定性的β机会，目前市场上的ETF覆盖了绝大多数行业及主题赛道，无论是机构投资者还是个人投资者，都 能在丰富的ETF标的中找到适配需求的选择，拓宽资产配置边界。 21世纪经济报道记者 庞成 深圳报道 当前，全球已进入降息大周期，"资产荒"成为资管行业热议的核心问题，不少资管机构正在从被动投资策略中寻找破局之道。 11月20日，以"立足湾区投资全球"为主题的2025湾区财富大会在深圳会展中心举行。在20日下午举行"市场前瞻：量化策略和被 动投资趋势"主题讨论环节上，易方达基金指数高级研究员陈逸来表示，在低利率环境下，优质高收益资产愈发稀缺。而此时， 被动投资的优势愈发凸显，尤其ETF产品，凭借三大核心特质，成为破解"资产荒"的重要配置方案。 三是天然具备分散化特征，ETF通过跟踪一篮子标的实现投资，天生具有分散风险的属性。在市场波动放大的背景下，这种分 散化配置能帮助投资者平滑收益波动，获取更稳健的投资回报。 2025湾区财富大会由21世纪经济报道、深圳金博会运 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan as of September 30, 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.76% from 30.67 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, indicating a continued recovery trend since 2025 [3][4] - The "asset migration" effect has enhanced the attractiveness of the wealth management market, with significant rebounds in product scales observed in the second and third quarters of 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Investment Type Changes - The structure of bank wealth management products has undergone adjustments, with fixed-income products continuing to dominate, growing from 15.30 trillion yuan in July to 16.13 trillion yuan in October 2025, a 5.4% increase [5] - Cash management products saw a significant increase, with a month-on-month growth of 8.8% in September, reaching 6.11 trillion yuan, and further increasing to 6.19 trillion yuan in October [5] - Mixed products showed differentiation, with bond-mixed and flexible allocation products growing by 18.9% and 16.2% respectively in September, although flexible allocation saw a slight decline in October [5] Group 3: Institutional Scale - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten wealth management institutions had a combined scale of 17.57 trillion yuan, with significant head effects, as the top three institutions (Zhaoyin Wealth Management, Xingyin Wealth Management, and Xinyin Wealth Management) each exceeded 2 trillion yuan [8] - The product type distribution among the top institutions shows a preference for fixed-income and cash management products, with Zhaoyin and Xingyin having over 50% in fixed-income allocations [9] Group 4: New Issuance Market Overview - In October 2025, the new issuance scale of bank wealth management products was 506.11 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.5% [15] - The majority of new issuances were medium-term products (3-6 months and 1-3 years), accounting for 88.44% of the total, indicating a preference for liquidity [15][16] Group 5: Performance Tracking - The average performance benchmark for all newly issued products in October 2025 was 2.50%, with a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points, maintaining stability [17] - Fixed-income and pure debt products accounted for 92.29% of new issuances, reflecting a conservative investment approach amid an "asset shortage" environment [21] Group 6: Yield Tracking - The median annualized yield for pure debt products increased with the holding period, with 3-year yields reaching 3.56%, significantly higher than daily open products at 1.65% [31] - Equity products exhibited high volatility, with daily open yields reaching 26.32%, but short-term yields showed negative returns, indicating market fluctuations [31] Group 7: Overall Market Trends - The bank wealth management market in October 2025 displayed characteristics of "steady growth, structural optimization, and concentration among leading institutions," with expectations for further diversification and innovation in product offerings [11][26] - The industry is moving towards a more regulated and diversified development, with a focus on long-term asset management and multi-asset allocation strategies [39]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 张一帆 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 1：2016-2024 年地方政府债务限额（亿元） 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 地方政府债限额、发行节奏及利差有何特征？ 地方政府债发行节奏从早期集中于二、三季度，逐步转向全年均衡分布。在 2015 至 2018 年前后，发行量高度集中于二三季度，这主要系当时我国预算审批与下达多 集中在年初，地方政府在获得新增债务限额后，需要时间进行项目准备、招标等前 期工作，导致大量债券实际发行窗口后移至年中，形成"上半年忙审批，下半年忙 发行"的格局。然而，自 2019 年起，特别是 2020 年之后，这一模式发生显著变化， 一季度和四季度的发行规模占比大幅提升。其原因或系政策层面强调"靠前发力" 和"均衡发行"，通过提前下达部分次年债务限额，使得地方能在一季度尽早启动 发行，及时形成实物 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in the banking sector is primarily driven by a shift in market investment style, with mid-term dividends acting as a catalyst, and the trend is expected to continue until the end of December [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, major banks such as Bank of China saw a nearly 5% increase, while China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank rose nearly 4%, and other banks like Everbright Bank and Minsheng Bank increased by over 2% [1] - The banking sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, indicating positive investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - According to Guosen Securities, there are likely to be good investment opportunities in the banking sector before the main theme of spring volatility becomes clear, suggesting that investors should overlook short-term fluctuations [1] - The demand for insurance capital allocation is significant due to the low interest rate environment, making stable bank stocks attractive to insurance funds [1] - The banking sector is expected to be an important allocation direction as the basic bottom-line expectations have become clear, which can help reduce asset yield volatility [1] Group 3: Recommendations - The institution recommends focusing on high-dividend, fundamentally stable stocks in the short term, while also considering quality stocks for potential upside [1] - It is suggested to pay attention to major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank as they represent stable investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credit spread in the bond market has remained low and volatile throughout the year, with expectations that it will continue to stay at low levels until 2026, barring significant credit risk events [1][3]. Credit Spread Dynamics - As of November 18, the interbank credit bond market showed slight fluctuations in yields, with AAA-rated 3-month notes rising by 1 basis point to 1.61%, while 3-year yields fell by 1 basis point to 1.86%, and 5-year yields remained stable around 1.99% [2]. - The low credit spread is attributed to a relatively abundant market liquidity due to central bank policies, stable demand for credit bonds, and improving corporate profitability, which has reduced the market's risk premium requirements [3]. Market Expectations and Policy Impact - Strong expectations for "wide credit" policies, including credit support tools and financing for real estate companies, are expected to alleviate credit pressures in specific sectors and enhance market confidence in credit bonds [3]. - Analysts predict that credit spreads will exhibit both temporary widening and sustained compression due to policy support and specific event impacts [3]. Investment Strategy and Timing - The timing of credit bond investments should focus on incremental events, as credit bonds typically do not move independently from interest rate bonds [4]. - Historical performance indicates that different driving factors lead to asymmetric market changes, with funding-driven adjustments affecting short-term bonds and asset allocation-driven adjustments impacting long-term bonds [5]. Recommendations for Credit Bond Investments - Investment focus should be on 3 to 5-year high-grade credit bonds and 4 to 5-year subordinated bonds, while being cautious with ultra-long credit bonds [6][7]. - High-grade credit bonds are supported by incremental funds from amortized cost bond funds, which have shifted from interest rate bonds to credit bonds since September 2025 [6]. - Subordinated bonds present a trading opportunity due to their recent underperformance compared to high-grade bonds, with a spread of approximately 20 basis points [7]. - Quality urban investment and industrial bonds, particularly those with around 2-year maturities, are suitable for investors seeking stable coupon income [7]. - Caution is advised for ultra-long credit bonds due to limited further yield decline potential and signs of reduced institutional demand [7].

昨日（11月18日），科创债ETF招商（551900）当日成交额72.18亿元，单日获0.9亿元资金净申购，基 金最新规模196.57亿元，居沪市同类第一。 11月19日，科创债ETF招商（551900）高开，截至发稿成交额超600万元。 消息面上，据每日经济新闻，2025年5月，债券市场"科技板"正式落地，为科创债注入强劲动力。前三 季度，已有超600家主体发行科创债约1.4万亿元，科创债成为支持科技创新的重要融资渠道。 对于科创债的市场价值，华鑫证券分析师称，今年以来，10年期国债收益率持续在2%以下运行，低利 率环境下债市呈现一定"资产荒"特征。科创债将债市投资者的投资视野从传统的基建、地产等领域，引 向了具备高成长性和技术壁垒的科技创新领域，这推动了债券市场从服务"旧经济"向支持"新经济"的战 略转型。 资金流向上，Wind数据显示，科创债ETF招商（551900）近5日累计"吸金"近2.4亿元。 科创债ETF招商（551900）紧密跟踪中证AAA科技创新公司债指数 (932160.CSI)，该指数从沪深交易所 上市的科技创新公司债中，选取剩余期限、信用评级符合条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映相应科技创 ...