创业板ETF天弘（159977）紧密跟踪创业板指数，该指数是深交所多层次资本市场的核心指数之一，由 最具代表性的100家创业板上市企业股票组成，反映创业板市场层次的运行情况。创业板指数新兴产 业、高新技术企业占比高，成长性突出。 消息面上，据央视新闻，鲍威尔暗示美联储可能降息。当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊 霍尔全球央行年会上表示，当前形势暗示就业增长面临下行风险，风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政 策。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 中银证券表示，鲍威尔的讲话被市场解读为鸽派转向，会后市场对于美联储9月降息预期显著提升，鲍 威尔讲话后，降息确定性加大，而9月降息为预防式降息，市场风险偏好有望迎来短期修复。目前来 看，增量资金的来源及持续性是判断行情持续性的关键。而近年来随着地产财富效应的消退，国内投资 者面临一定程度的"资产荒"，随着"924"以来政策积极转向，A股赚钱效应的预期开始逐渐修复。此外， 目前来看，只要基本面能够止跌企稳，市场短期赚钱效应大概率得以延续。配置方向上，内外双宽松阶 段，科技资产有望受益于本轮全球流动性转向与国内盈利拐点的双重催化。 东吴证券指出，融资余额超过2万亿创历 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，本周非银板块部分公司半年报出炉，业绩普遍高增，随着后 续半年报业绩密集发布，继续看好非银板块因配置力量(近期居民增量资金入市显著)与业绩弹性的共振 带来的投资机会。该行更加推荐A股具备业绩弹性非银标的的投资机会。 2.投行业务：截至2025年8月22日，IPO和定增承销规模为7386.12亿元;截至2025年8月15日，企业债、公 司债和可转债融资规模分别为145.91亿元、22241.73亿元和338.27亿元。 3.融资融券：截至2025年8月21日，融资融券余额21468亿(2025年8月14日20626亿)，其中融资余额21320 亿元，融券余额148亿元。目前融资融券余额占A、B股流通市值的比例为2.14%。 4.股权质押：截至2025年8月22日，全年累计新增质押股票参考市值规模为5224亿元，其中券商所做的 股权质押参考市值为1162亿元，占比22.25%;存量看，市场未解押股权质押业务股票总市值(参考市值)达 到4985亿元，其中券商未解押股票总市值达到1220亿元，占比24.47%。 5.保险数据：保险行业2025年6月数据：1)2025年1-6月累计 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 居民存款搬家趋势初显 近期A股市场持续活跃，上证指数突破3800点，创10年新高，近一周（8月18-22日）A股市场日均成交额达2.6万亿元，以自由流通市值计算的日均换手率 近5%。 市场活跃度提升、增量资金入市的来源之一是居民存款搬家的初步显现。 近年来我国居民储蓄增长较快，2022年-2024年居民累计新增存款48.7万 亿元，储蓄存款余额累计增长47.6%，增速高于名义GDP增长。但近期随着市场和宏观环境变化，出现了一定的居民"存款搬家"现象，具体包括： 1）非 银金融存款提升。 7月新增居民存款同比减少了0.8万亿元，余额同比增长10.3%，而非银金融机构存款同比多增1.4万亿元，余额同比增长15.2%。 2）活 期存款增速有所回升。 住户活期存款同比增速从2024年初接近0的水平修复至2025年7月的6.8%，与此同时定期存款增速从14.9%下行至11.5%，企业活期 存款同比增速也转正。 3）A股市场个人投资者活跃度提升。 截至8月22日两融余额超过2.1万亿元，接近2015年的历史高点；7月上交所A股新增开户数达 196万，相比6月多增31.7万户。原本存入居民存款的一部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Equity Index [2] - Cautiously Bearish: Treasury Bonds, Coke, Coking Coal, Carbonate Lithium [2][7] - Bearish: Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass, Crude Oil [6][7] - Bullish: Rubber [8] - Sideways: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Methanol, Polyolefins, Cotton [5][8] 2. Core Views - The equity index is on an upward trend with continuous inflow of funds and clear long - term narratives, so a long - position strategy should be maintained [2]. - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and lack of new positive factors [2]. - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and short - position strategies are recommended [7]. - Rubber's fundamentals are improving, and long - position strategies should be continued [3][8]. - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decisions [5]. - Silver maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - Copper prices are supported in the medium - to long - term by tight mine supply, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy [5]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are in a sideways pattern, with limited downward space for alumina and clear medium - term support for aluminum [5]. - Nickel prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern, and selling call options is recommended [5]. - Carbonate lithium supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [6]. - Polysilicon prices may decline due to the need for market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - Rebar prices are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - Coke prices are mainly sideways, and coking coal prices are under pressure [7]. - Float glass prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - Crude oil prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - Methanol prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - Cotton demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Equity Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the bullish sentiment is rising. With continuous capital inflow and clear long - term narratives, the upward trend is clear, and long positions should be held [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is weak, affected by the strong stock market. Without new positive factors, the bearish pattern continues [2]. Commodity Futures - **Soda Ash**: The industry has an oversupply situation. With the possible commissioning of new devices, supply pressure will increase, and previous short positions in SA601 should be held [3][7]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, with stable demand and slow raw - material production increase. Long positions in RU2601 should be held [3][8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Prices are in a high - level sideways pattern. The Fed's interest - rate decisions and the speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium are key factors [5]. - **Silver**: Maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply is tight in the medium - to long - term, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar trend [5]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina has an overcapacity situation but low valuation, and aluminum has clear medium - term support. Both are in a sideways pattern [5]. - **Nickel**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, and prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern. Selling call options is recommended [5]. - **Lithium and Silicon** - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. Aggressive investors can hold previous short positions lightly [6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon supply is abundant, and polysilicon prices may decline due to market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - **Steel and Iron** - **Rebar**: Fundamentals are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options in RB2510C3300 is recommended [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - **Coal and Coke** - **Coke**: Prices are mainly sideways, affected by environmental protection policies on both supply and demand sides [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are under pressure due to weakening demand from steel and coke enterprises [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - **Soda Ash**: Maintains an oversupply situation, and previous short positions in the 01 contract should be held [7]. - **Float Glass**: Prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - **Chemicals** - **Methanol**: Prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, and long positions should be held [3][8].

8月21日，A股总成交额再度突破2万亿元，这已经是连续7个交易日超2万亿元关口。 当日，上证指数摸高至3787.98点，创10年新高。同时，A股总市值迈上一个新台阶，突破100万亿元大关。 指数的上涨以及交易大放量背后，是各路资金的跑步入市。其中，作为长期资金的代表，保险资金高歌猛进， 仅在 今年上 半年新增入市资金超6400 亿元，远超去年全年的新增体量，创历史新高。 同时，从36万亿元保险资金的配置比例上看，股票投资余额达3.07万亿元，占比8.47%，创下2022年以来的新高。 更为吸引市场关注的，是今年以来保险资金进行的举牌潮。据统计，年内保险资金举牌已达30次，仅次于2015年的62次。 那么， 是什么吸引了保险资金入市？保险资金又在买什么？ 仅在上半年，就有超6400亿元新增保险资金进入股市。其 中，一季度净流入3900亿元，二季度又净流入2500亿元。今 年4月7日，受关税战影响，上证指数暴跌7.34%，此后行情 一路震荡上行，也就是说，保险资金的加仓正好赶上了这一波 上涨行情。而拉长时间看，这一波增量远超保险资金在过去几 年的加仓规模。 作者：姜鑫 封图：图虫创意 | 时间 | | 股票投资余 ...

黄金市场波澜再起，金价开始向下试探。8月21日，上海黄金交易所AU99.99午盘价为771.83元/克，较前一日收盘价格770.24元/克小幅上涨；伦敦金价格为 3344.34美元/盎司，较前一日下跌2.41美元，跌幅0.07%。短期内金价仍将继续下探，现阶段大量黄金的集中入市，原本供需平衡被打破，促使金价持续走 低。此外，虚拟货币正分流黄金市场，削弱黄金避险属性和投资需求。 要客研究院院长周婷坦言，近日的黄金价格出现下跌现象，主要的原因是因为地缘政治缓和，避险资金需求降低，黄金价格自然下降。此外，黄金市场正经 历多重因素的叠加冲击，以稳定币为代表的虚拟货币应用场景不断拓展，正逐步侵蚀黄金的传统地位，对黄金需求构成压力。 据了解，虚拟货币因其价值相对稳定，逐渐被部分投资者视为黄金的替代选择，分流了原本流向黄金市场的资金，导致黄金的避险属性和投资需求被削弱， 拉低了黄金的市场价格。 周婷还表示，黄金持有者的集中抛售行为进一步加剧了金价的下跌。不少黄金持有者面临较大的资金压力，为缓解流动性紧张，不得不选择出售手中的黄金 资产。此外，也有部分投资者对未来黄金价格走势的信心不足，促使提前离场，纷纷加入抛售行列。大量黄 ...

以下文章来源于阿尔法工场金融家 ，作者金妹妹 导语：平安举牌保险央企H股，既能延续高股息投资逻辑，又能让监管的关注点不再过于集中于险 资持续"吃入"银行板块，显得更为均衡。 "热闹"背后 短短一周内，连续两起举牌行动，在低迷许久的保险板块激起了久违的涟漪。 至8月11日，中国平安（601318.SH）与其旗下资产管理公司平安资管，合计买入1.4亿股中国 太保（2601.HK）H股，持股比例升至5.04%，达 到举牌条件。 四天之后的8月15日，香港交 易所最新披露的信息显示，平安持有中国人寿（2628.HK）H股比 例也达到5. 04%，触发举牌。 市场舆论反应，几乎是"本能向"的。 大多数投资者认为，以平安的资金体量，动 辄数十亿的加仓并非难事，触发"举牌线"在所难免。 乃至部分投资者调侃，"平安资金太多，随便一买就'举牌'了"。 阿尔法工场金融家 . 追踪保险银行业圈内动态，剖析最新风向，分享有料、有价值的"内行人"洞察见解。 平安是国内最懂保险的公司，它去买同行的股票，自然被解读为"看好行业"。于是，太保、国寿 股价应声上涨，整个保险板块迎来一波急行军。部分分析师更进一步，把这当成行业拐点的信 号：既然 ...

沪指续创近十年新高。 8月20日，沪指早盘弱势下探，午后在金融、半导体等板块带动下强势上攻，最终收涨1.04%，报 3766.21点，续创近10年新高。深成指涨0.89%，报11926.74点；创业板指涨0.23%，报2607.65点。 不过，在上冲过程中，周三两市成交有所萎缩，共成交24082亿元，较前一交易日减少1802亿元。 对此，有券商投顾表示，周三沪指表现良好，光头中阳形态预示着还有进一步上冲的可能，但阳量相比 周一萎缩是瑕疵，周四如果上冲过程中不能进一步放量，要防范形成技术上的背驰衰竭结构。不过即便 背驰后市场出现调整消化，也大概率会在3731上方进行，跌到3731会有权重站出来护盘。 "但8月最后一周最好要谨慎些，因为半年报会集中在这周披露，业绩预期不好的个股出现调整的概率较 大，所以8月剩余时间要把注意力放在各行业的大市值龙头品种上，这些品种可能会有超过大盘的表 现。"该券商投顾建议。 淡水泉投资认为，当前市场环境下，两个趋势的演进将有望对市场动量的持续性形成支撑：一个是，低 利率及"资产荒"的背景将推动资金为寻求收益而提升风险偏好；二是家庭负债表从超额储蓄到增配股市 的逐步转变。 "当前市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of bank and insurance stocks in 2023 is attributed to high dividend yields, stable returns, and low valuations, with expectations for continued strength due to market recovery and increased capital inflows [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of August 20, 2023, the bank sector in A-shares has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 14% since 2025, while the insurance sector has risen about 13% [1]. - Individual stocks such as Agricultural Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Qingdao Bank have each increased over 30% this year, with New China Life Insurance and China Pacific Insurance rising over 15% [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, banks like Qingdao Bank, CITIC Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank have also shown strong performance, with some H-shares increasing over 30%, and New China Life Insurance H-shares rising over 120% [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The rise in bank and insurance stocks is driven by a combination of market recovery and their inherently low valuations, with high dividends and improved asset quality contributing to their appeal [2]. - Insurance capital inflows have been significant, with favorable policies encouraging long-term investments, leading to increased demand for bank stocks among insurance funds [2]. - The low interest rate environment and asset scarcity have made bank stocks attractive to insurance capital due to their high dividends and stable valuations [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the valuation of bank and insurance stocks remains attractive, with expectations for continued strong performance driven by increased capital from insurance companies [3]. - The potential for significant capital inflows is supported by regulatory guidance encouraging insurance companies to invest a portion of new premiums in A-shares starting in 2025 [3]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from improved market conditions, which may alleviate pressure from interest rate reductions and enhance long-term investment value [4].

来源：经济参考报 庞昕熠 险企"团购"购物中心 险资已成为商业地产交易市场的常客。最新消息显示，持有国内多家荟聚购物中心的英格卡正计划出售 其中10座，首批无锡、北京、武汉三项目交易规模或达160亿元，由某头部险企领投基金接盘。 早在年初，新华保险便通过百亿级不动产基金"坤华(天津)股权投资合伙企业"陆续受让安徽宣城、铜陵 等多地万达广场。1月，宣城、安阳、四平等项目完成工商变更，原股东大连万达商业管理集团退出， 坤华基金成为全资股东。公开信息显示，坤华基金成立于2023年12月，新华保险持股99.9%，中金资本 持股0.1%。截至目前，该基金已在北京、南京、扬州、成都等至少14个万达广场项目中现身。 阳光人寿亦在同步布局。2023年12月，阳光人寿出资55.1亿元设立"丽水联融壹号股权投资合伙企业"， 间接持有合肥、东莞等地6家万达广场。2024年11月，该基金引入中银三星人寿、太保人寿旗下南京太 保鑫汇致远基金，二者分别持股9.07%，共同分享资产收益。 此外，大家保险已将上海松江等3家万达广场收入囊中。 中国平安副总经理付欣在2024年度业绩会上表示，公司不动产敞口持续收窄，同时配置了可带来稳定现 金流 ...