Core Viewpoint - The trust investment industry is experiencing a shift where investors are becoming more discerning and moving towards independent research and decision-making, leading to a potential "gentle diversion" in 2026 towards other asset management channels [1][2][6] Group 1: Investor Behavior Changes - Investors are increasingly transitioning from relying on financial advisors to conducting their own research and analysis, with a focus on understanding product performance and risks [2][8] - The criteria for selecting trust products have become more stringent, with negative news leading to immediate rejection of products [2][8] - Investors are utilizing various news and analysis tools, including AI assistants, to validate their investment choices and assess the credibility of trust companies [2][8] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The trust industry is facing an asset scarcity issue, which is expected to persist into 2026, prompting a focus on core business areas such as family trusts and insurance trusts [3][9] - There is a consensus within the industry to return to fundamental business practices, emphasizing professionalism and compliance as key development themes for 2026 [3][9] - The industry is lacking not just projects but also the professional talent needed to navigate complex legal, tax, and inheritance issues for high-net-worth clients [3][9] Group 3: Regulatory and Trust Issues - The transition towards new business models is hindered by inconsistent regional regulatory policies and a historical trust deficit among investors [4][10] - Investors often react with suspicion to fluctuations in product net values, questioning the integrity of trust companies [4][10] Group 4: Building Sustainable Trust Relationships - The industry is seeking to establish healthier, more sustainable trust relationships characterized by transparency and mutual trust between clients and trust companies [5][11] - There is a strong demand for improved information disclosure regarding product performance and underlying assets to enhance investor confidence [5][11] - The integration of AI and big data into risk control, investment research, and customer service is expected to become essential for institutions in 2026 [5][11] Group 5: Future Positioning of Trust Companies - Trust companies are likely to redefine their roles from traditional financial products to comprehensive financial solution providers, particularly for wealth inheritance needs [6][12] - The industry is expected to focus on niche areas such as industrial finance and green trusts, with larger firms leading the way while smaller institutions face pressure to adapt [5][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Publicly - offered REITs have the characteristics of "high dividends + inflation resistance + asset growth". With the "bond floor" of mandatory dividends and the "equity wing" of asset appreciation, they provide a scarce tool for enhancing returns and hedging risks, and are ideal "fixed - income +" tools to solve the current "asset shortage" [1][39]. - Through the differentiation of income sources, publicly - offered REITs effectively diversify portfolio risks. The market is still in its early stage of development, with broad space for asset expansion, category innovation, and platform growth, and has long - term strategic allocation value [39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 REITs Definition and Market Overview - Publicly - offered REITs are standardized financial products that pool the funds of multiple investors by issuing income certificates, hold the ownership or management rights of real estate assets in the structure of "public fund + asset - backed securities", and are publicly traded on stock exchanges. Their multi - layer structure effectively achieves the key goals of risk isolation, tax neutrality, and public offering [2][17]. - As of December 2025, the total market value of China's publicly - offered REITs market was nearly 220 billion yuan, with 79 listed products. The market has shown a continuous expansion trend, and the asset types have gradually diversified [3][24]. - The market investors of publicly - offered REITs include strategic investors, offline investors, and public investors. General legal persons are the largest holders, accounting for 59.09%, followed by securities firms' proprietary trading with a 19.42% share [2][37]. 3.2 Reasons to Focus on Publicly - offered REITs - Solving the "asset shortage" as a "fixed - income +" tool: In the low - interest - rate environment, REITs offer a more attractive asset option, with higher initial distribution yields than traditional bonds. From early 2024 to the end of 2025, the cumulative increase of the CSI REITs Total Return Index was 18.82%, providing higher returns than pure - bond assets and having anti - decline and defensive properties [4][40]. - Dual income sources: Publicly - offered REITs achieve an optimized income structure through the compound model of "bottom - position dividends + potential growth", combining the stability of bonds and the growth potential of stocks. Regulatory requirements mandate that over 90% of distributable amounts be used for dividends, and asset value growth gives them "equity" potential [5][42]. - Huge expansion potential and innovation space: The expansion mechanism is becoming more normalized, and the entry of incremental funds is expected. The market has broad growth prospects, and new products such as REITs ETFs are being explored [6][46]. 3.3 Core Differences between REITs and Bonds - Legal relationship: REITs investors are shareholders, with a residual claim on the underlying real estate assets and operating cash flows. Bond investors are creditors, with a clear contractual relationship with the issuer [49][50]. - Income source: REITs' investment returns are mainly driven by operating dividends, with capital gains reflecting asset valuation changes. Bond returns mainly come from contractual coupon income, and secondary - market price differences reflect interest rate and credit spread changes [51]. - Risk characteristics: REITs face operating and market risks, while bonds are mainly affected by interest rate and credit risks [52][53]. - Report perspective: REITs focus on the sustainability of asset - operating cash flows, while bonds focus on the issuer's solvency and credit safety margin [55]. 3.4 Asset Type "Atlas" of China's Publicly - offered REITs - The underlying assets can be divided into two categories: property rights and franchise rights. The market shows a pattern of dominance by leading assets and insufficient supply at the tail end. The top three in terms of market - value proportion are transportation infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and park infrastructure, which together account for 59.56% of the total market scale [9]. - Key points of different underlying assets: Transportation assets emphasize policies and location; consumer assets focus on the economic cycle and operation; park assets depend on industries and the ecological environment; warehousing and logistics rely on location and leases; energy infrastructure is related to policies and technology; and affordable rental housing needs to balance policies and people's livelihoods [9]. 3.5 Investment Strategies - REITs market performance is differentiated. Consumer infrastructure, affordable rental housing, and warehousing and logistics REITs show relatively high investment value. Consumer infrastructure REITs have an average increase of 32.48% since their establishment, with strong cash - flow stability and growth elasticity [10][68]. - An investment strategy of "dumbbell - shaped" allocation and "high - dividend - yield" tactics can be adopted. In the short term, focus on "defensive and stable" sectors, and gradually make left - hand side investments in "long - duration high - quality assets" [10][69].

从市场表现来看，2025年农业银行A、H股涨幅同步领跑板块。其中，H股年内涨幅超过30%，位列港 股上市银行榜首，股息率为4.86%；A股年内涨幅更是高达43%。 截至2025年12月30日，平安人寿持有约61.8亿股农业银行H股，持仓市值超300亿港元。 值得一提的是，在布局H股的同时，平安人寿也在同步增持农业银行A股。据披露，平安人寿已在2025 年三季度新进农行A股前十大股东名单，截至9月末，持有该行49.13亿股A股股份，持股比例约1.4%。 近日，据港交所最新资料显示，平安人寿于2025年12月30日增持9558.2万股农业银行H股股份，合计耗 资约5.53亿港元。此次增持后，平安人寿持有的农行H股股份由19.79%增至20.1%。 股价的强劲走势背后是稳健的盈利能力，2025年前三季度，农业银行实现营业收入5508.76亿元，同比 增加1.97%；归母净利润2208.59亿元，同比增加3.03%。 回溯中国平安加仓历程，2025年2月，平安人寿增持4772.3万股农业银行，持股比例突破5%并触发首次 举牌。5月，增持1.47亿股农业银行，持股数量达到10%。8月13日，买入2651.5万股农业银行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Core Viewpoint - The current banking environment shows no large-scale deposit outflows, but banks are not lacking deposits, as customer preferences dictate their choices between renewing deposits or seeking higher returns through other financial products [1][2][3]. Group 1: Customer Behavior and Preferences - Many conservative customers prefer to renew their fixed deposits despite declining interest rates, valuing the safety and stability of deposits over potential higher returns from riskier investments [2][3]. - A significant portion of customers, particularly those with investment experience, may consider reallocating their funds into wealth management products, funds, or the stock market upon deposit maturity, depending on their risk appetite [6][7]. - The trend indicates that while some customers are exploring alternative investment options, a majority are likely to continue renewing their deposits or switching to higher-yielding banks [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - By 2026, approximately 50 trillion yuan of medium to long-term fixed deposits will mature, with a significant portion expected to remain within the banking system through renewals or conversion to demand deposits [5]. - The competition among banks is shifting from a "price war" to a "value war," focusing on product innovation and customer-centric services to retain deposits and attract new customers [7]. - The structural differentiation in deposit outflows is evident, with state-owned banks facing more liquidity issues rather than outright deposit losses, while smaller banks may experience higher outflow rates [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Products and Strategies - Banks are actively promoting structured deposits to meet customer needs for capital preservation while offering some yield flexibility [3]. - There is a growing interest in low-risk wealth management products as customers seek alternatives to traditional deposits, indicating a shift in investment strategies among consumers [4][5]. - Analysts predict that the stock market may benefit from the reallocation of deposit funds into wealth management and insurance products, although these alternatives may not provide substantial returns [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing interest of insurance funds in the equity market, particularly in high-dividend stocks, amid an asset shortage environment, with an expected influx of approximately 600 billion yuan by 2026 [1] - Since 2019, insurance institutions have placed greater emphasis on dividend stocks, prioritizing sectors such as public utilities, transportation, and telecommunications for investment [1] - The current allocation of insurance funds is primarily in banking (highest proportion), public utilities, and real estate, with increasing allocations in transportation and telecommunications sectors [1] Group 2 - The Hongli State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720) tracks the Shangguo Dividend Index (000151), which selects high-dividend capable companies with stable dividend records across various industries, focusing on traditional high-dividend sectors [1] - The index employs a strict evaluation of constituent stocks based on dividend yield and sustainability, utilizing a cross-industry diversification strategy to effectively manage investment risks [1] - The Hongli State-Owned Enterprise ETF has successfully distributed dividends monthly since its listing, achieving a continuous dividend distribution for 20 months [1]

推动 REITs 市场发展，提高上市发行效率 ——行业周报 REITs 2026 年 01 月 04 日 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 推动 REITs 市场发展，提高上市发行效率 2025 年第 53 周，中证 REITs（收盘）指数为 778.6，同比下跌 4.99%，环比下跌 0.67%；中证 REITs 全收益指数 1009.84，同比上涨 2.24%，环比下跌 0.49%。本 周 REITs 市场交易规模成交量达 2.86 亿份，同比下降 62.32%；成交额达 12.69 亿元，同比下降 58.22%；区间换手率 1.03%，同比-3.48pct。本周保障房、环保、 高速公路、产业园区、仓储物流、能源、消费类 REITs 一周涨跌幅分别为-0.72%、 -0.67%、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to exhibit structural differentiation between interest rate bonds and credit bonds in 2026, influenced by a complex interplay of monetary policy and economic recovery factors [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - In Q4 2025, the interest rate bond market showed a recovery trend after a bearish adjustment in Q3, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.7% and 1.85% [1]. - The credit bond market experienced increased transaction volumes but widening credit spreads, indicating a divergence from interest rate bonds [1][2]. - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds showing zero issuance, reflecting a weak overall supply willingness despite some positive growth in company bonds and medium-term notes [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Positive factors for the bond market include a moderately loose monetary policy, which may support market performance, especially if the U.S. further lowers interest rates [3]. - Negative factors include rising inflation pressures, easing "asset scarcity," and changes in supply structure, which could impact market sentiment and demand [4]. - The overall bond market in 2026 is expected to experience wide fluctuations with a moderate upward trend, particularly in the interest rate bond sector [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on short-term opportunities in interest rate bonds while avoiding duration risks, particularly in the first quarter of 2026 [6]. - Credit bond investments should target structural opportunities, emphasizing coupon strategies, with a focus on high-grade short-duration credit bonds to mitigate risks [6][7]. - The expansion of technology innovation bonds is anticipated to reshape credit bond allocation strategies, with a recommended approach of combining short-term coupons with mid-to-long-term timing [7].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 [Table_Main] 行稳致远——2026 年宏观和大类资产 配置展望 报告要点 全球：经济平稳，降息持续。2026 年全球经济预计将保持平稳运行。从周期 位置看，美国经济处于下行期后期，美联储降息周期将持续，预计 2026 年将 有 50bp-75bp 的降息幅度。这不仅因为经济边际转弱，还受到特朗普政府对 美联储独立性施压的影响，未来美联储内部鸽派官员或将增加。更深远的宏观 变化在于全球进入"大财政时代"。为应对地缘政治冲突和重建产业链安全的 需求，主要经济体（美、中、欧、日）均打破了财政纪律，转向大规模财政扩 张。这一趋势将长期持续，意味着宏观调控从货币主导转向财政主导，这将推 升实物资产需求，使全球长期利率中枢难以回到极低水平。 中国：转型中的阵痛与应对。中国经济仍存在"宏微观温差"，导致企业和居 民体感不佳 。造成这一现象的根本原因是物价低迷，而物价低迷不仅源于金 融周期偏弱，更源于深层的结构性因素：经济"去地产化"导致商品需求下降， 以及居民消费结构向服务业转移。预计 2026 年通胀将温和缓慢回升，PP I 转 正难度仍大。消费增长内生动力偏弱。投资整体有望边际回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The era of high returns is fading, leading to a significant "asset shortage" as investors seek stable investment opportunities amidst declining interest rates and low yields on traditional assets [1]. Group 1: Importance of Dividend Stocks - Dividend stocks are gaining attention not just for their high yields, but due to three fundamental reasons [2]. Group 2: Financial Calculations - The current low-risk interest rate environment (around 1.7%) makes dividend yields of 5%-6% attractive, creating a significant yield spread that positions dividend stocks as valuable assets [3]. Group 3: Insurance Demand - Insurance companies are increasingly purchasing dividend stocks due to the IFRS 9 accounting standard, which allows them to classify high-dividend, low-volatility stocks as special assets, thus stabilizing their profit reports while benefiting from dividend income [4][5]. Group 4: Policy Changes - New regulations, referred to as the "National Nine Articles," are pressuring companies to increase dividend payouts, improving the quality and quantity of dividend stocks available in the market [7][8]. Group 5: Constructing a Balanced Dividend Portfolio - A balanced approach to dividend investing is recommended, consisting of three types of dividend assets: offensive (CITIC Dividend), defensive (low-volatility dividend), and enhancing (Hong Kong dividend stocks) to mitigate risks and enhance returns [10][11]. Group 6: Long-term Investment Strategy - Dividend stocks are characterized by lower volatility and are suitable for long-term investment strategies, providing a steady cash flow during prolonged low-interest periods [12][14].