1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. However, the downstream restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support spot prices [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials. The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, which has different impacts on raw materials and steel prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the output of rebar decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand rebounded, and the total inventory decreased. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating obvious resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and go long after the futures stabilize [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore shipment is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for a full adjustment, and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [4]. 3.3. Industry News - Indonesia has suspended 190 coal and mining licenses because they failed to fulfill the obligation to repair damaged mine land or comply with production quotas [6]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average daily customs clearance of the three major Mongolian coal ports has changed. The total average daily customs clearance in September is 2258 vehicles, equivalent to an import volume of about 31.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. It is estimated that the 7 - day closure of the three major ports during the 2025 double - festival holiday will affect the Mongolian coal import volume by about 187.56 tons [6]. - On September 23, a large steel mill in Tangshan tendered for Mongolian 5 coking coal, with a winning bid price of 1400 yuan/ton to the factory, and all 7000 tons of the tender quantity were sold. The transaction price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on September 11 [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3350 yuan, and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Short the January spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continues to converge [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increase, and the costs of different steelmaking processes change. The profits of various steel products show a downward trend [1]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output increases slightly, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, rebar output decreases significantly, and hot - rolled coil output increases slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increases slightly, rebar inventory decreases seasonally, and hot - rolled coil inventory increases [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products increase slightly, rebar apparent demand increases significantly, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreases [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with the range referring to 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore when the price is low and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different iron ore varieties' 01 contracts decreases significantly, and the spreads between different contracts change [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreases week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increases. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases slightly, the daily average port clearance volume increases, and the monthly output of pig iron and crude steel decreases [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreases slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increases, and the number of days of available inventory of 64 steel mills increases [4]. Group 3: Coal Industry (Coke and Coking Coal) Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke when the price is low, with the range referring to 1650 - 1800, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal when the price is low, with the range referring to 1150 - 1300, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - **Supply**: Due to previous price increases, coking profits are still available after two rounds of price cuts, and northern coke enterprises have high enthusiasm for resuming production [7]. - **Demand**: Steel mills continue to resume production, and iron water output continues to rise slightly, providing support for downstream demand [7]. - **Inventory**: Coking plants reduce inventory, while steel mills and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - **Supply**: Main - producing area coal mines resume production, logistics recovers, and sales improve after price cuts. Imported coal prices follow futures fluctuations [7]. - **Demand**: Iron water output continues to rise, coking operations remain stable, and downstream replenishment demand increases [7]. - **Inventory**: Coal mines, ports, and steel mills reduce inventory, while coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each futures variety: cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon; and recommends holding long positions for iron ore [1]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall steel market shows mixed signals. Rebar has positive supply - demand changes but limited downstream demand improvement, while hot - rolled coil has relatively stable supply - demand. Iron ore has a strong fundamental due to increased iron - water production, supply contraction, and pre - National Day restocking. Coke starts price hikes and runs in a range following coking coal. Coking coal has supply tightness but also import support and runs strongly in a range. Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon have relatively balanced supply - demand with limited upside potential [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: The apparent demand improves month - on - month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline, but the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. Tangshan's production limit news provides a short - term boost. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel supply is abundant. Downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and real estate and infrastructure are still drags. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand declines, production and inventory increase slightly, and supply - demand is relatively stable with few contradictions. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel demand is weak, lacking upward drivers. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron - water production increases again, supply shrinks, and combined with pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][6][7]. Coke - Coke starts the first round of price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are acceptable, and spot production is relatively stable. Iron - water production increases slightly and remains high, leading to high raw material demand. Coke's supply - demand is relatively balanced and runs in a range following coking coal. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal over - production has led to some mines' suspension for rectification. Domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, with tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron - water production rises slightly, ensuring raw material demand. In the short term, supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it runs strongly in a range due to policy disturbances on the supply side. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][14][15]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals are becoming looser. After the new round of restocking demand is released, it may be more difficult to reduce inventory in the production areas. The cost side provides strong support for prices in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions or wait and see [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Enterprise inventory decreases slightly, but warehouse receipts stop decreasing and start to increase, with a still high absolute value, suppressing price increases. It is expected to run in a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [1][17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices remained strong last week, influenced by Guinea's government requiring mining developers to build deep processing and smelting plants, alongside a consensus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [1] Supply Factors - Supply expectations for iron ore remain unchanged, with a notable decline in foreign shipments due to reduced output from Vale and non-mainstream miners, while Australian shipments remain stable [1] - The arrival volume of iron ore is slightly lower than the same period last year, and as previous high shipment volumes arrive, supply-side pressure will gradually emerge, reducing support for prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic demand is recovering as environmental production limits in North China are lifted, with an average daily pig iron output of 240.55 thousand tons [1] - Although steel mill profitability has declined, it remains near a five-year high, with blast furnace profits nearing breakeven and short-term losses widespread [1] - Pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills may support iron ore prices [1] Inventory Trends - Steel mills' daily consumption has increased with production recovery, leading to a slight rise in inventory, although still below last year's levels [1] - Port inventories continue to rise, and with the lifting of environmental restrictions, port throughput is expected to increase, while domestic pre-holiday replenishment will likely reduce inventories [1] Market Outlook - The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with trading focus shifting to real conditions [1] - As the domestic peak season approaches, attention will be on changes in the black series fundamentals [1] - In the short term, iron ore supply is expected to recover while demand may decline from previous highs, leading to a mid-term shift in supply-demand balance, but pre-holiday replenishment is likely to support prices, with expectations of high-level fluctuations [1]

Supply - Global shipments this week saw a significant decline, with a total of 27.562 million tons shipped, down by 8.006 million tons week-on-week [1] - Port arrivals decreased to 24.480 million tons, a drop of 0.078 million tons week-on-week [1] - Monthly import volume reached 105.225 million tons, an increase of 0.602 million tons month-on-month [1] Demand - As of September 11, daily iron and steel production averaged 2.4055 million tons, up by 0.1171 million tons week-on-week [1] - Blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43% week-on-week [1] - Ironmaking capacity utilization rate reached 90.18%, up by 4.39% week-on-week [1] - Steel mill profit margin stood at 60.17%, a slight decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with average daily port throughput increasing [1] - Steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.532 million tons week-on-week, totaling 89.931 million tons [1] - Port inventory at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, a minor decrease of 0.2 million tons [1] - Average daily throughput at 45 ports was 3.313 million tons, an increase of 0.135 million tons week-on-week [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract exhibited a strong oscillating trend this week [2] - A significant drop in global iron ore shipments was noted, primarily due to maintenance at three Brazilian ports [2] - Steel mill profit margins have slightly decreased, but iron and steel production has rebounded significantly, indicating increased restocking demand [2] - Port inventory has seen a slight accumulation, while throughput has increased [2] - The market outlook remains balanced but tight, with a recommendation to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract within the range of 780-850 [2][4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Demand Side**: Last week, the daily average hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons. Before the parade, maintenance increased, leading to a decline in hot metal output. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, with the daily average hot metal output at 2.4013 million tons [1]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased slightly week - on - week but was at a high level for the same period. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased week - on - week and was at a relatively low level for the same period. The total global iron ore shipment was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 0.908 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 561,800 tons [1]. - **Overall Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak. However, the expectation of restocking after the parade supports the spot price, and the futures price is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3160 | 22 | 0.70 | 17417436 | 2897345 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3346 | - 43 | - 1.27 | 5457540 | 1454760 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 787.5 | 0.5 | 0.06 | 1844920 | 410009 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1151.0 | - 64.5 | - 5.31 | 17695850 | 764344 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1643.0 | - 93.0 | - 5.36 | 344282 | 51526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The high - level operation of hot metal and the expectation of restocking by steel mills after the parade supported the spot price [4]. - **Spot Market**: The PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 779 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Super Special powder price was 673 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. Industry News - **Real Estate Policy**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted real estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions for eligible families outside the outer ring and tax exemptions for non - local residents' first - home purchases [10]. - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: As of August 27, 2 more blast furnaces in 23 sample steel enterprises were under maintenance. More maintenance is expected by the end of the month, which will affect hot metal output [10]. - **Local Government Bonds**: In the first 7 months of this year, China issued 3.3159 trillion yuan in new local government bonds [10]. - **Steel Industry Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a work plan to promote the stable growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity [10]. Related Charts The report provides a series of charts showing the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, as well as steel mill profits, production, inventory, and consumption data [9][11][13]

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: With good blast furnace profits and improved electric furnace profits, steel mills are highly motivated to produce, leading to high molten iron output. However, demand remains weak, and the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen. Despite recent downward trends, policy disturbances and the Fed's loose signals may trigger a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have slightly increased, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. The supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, but after continuous decline, the short-term downside space may be limited, and a short-term rebound is possible [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron output has increased, environmental protection restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. The fundamental situation is moderately bearish, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. The supply-demand balance is relatively stable, and short-term rebound is expected due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat compared to the previous period, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. Although the futures price has a premium over the warehouse receipt cost and there is downward correction space in the medium term, short-term rebound is possible due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply-demand balance is loosening, production is increasing, and the steel mill restocking is completed. Manganese ore shipments have decreased, but inventory is stable. The cost side provides some support, and short-term rebound may occur under macro - sentiment influence, while the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production is increasing, demand is declining, and inventory pressure is high. It may follow the market for a weak short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][17][18]. Detailed Summaries Rebar - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3224, 3261, and 3138 respectively, with price increases of 29, 31, and 19 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: High production enthusiasm of steel mills, weak demand, and expected loosening of supply - demand balance [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible due to policy and Fed signals [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3377, 3388, and 3389 respectively, with price increases of 25, 30, and 28 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a loosening supply - demand trend [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible after continuous decline [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Not provided in the text. - **Supply - Demand**: Increased molten iron output, less - than - expected environmental protection restrictions, completed restocking of steel mills, and accumulating port inventories [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1736.0, 1825.5, and 1652.0 respectively, with price increases of 57.5, 56.0, and 25.0 [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Relatively stable supply - demand balance, with stable production and inventory [1][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1215.5, 1261.5, and 1061.5 respectively, with price increases of 53.5, 52.0, and 13.5 [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, and stable raw material demand [1][13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][13][14]. Manganese Silicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5898, 5946, and 5798 respectively, with price increases of 66, 65, and 56 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Loosening supply - demand balance, increased production, and completed steel mill restocking [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible under macro - sentiment influence, medium - term sell - on - rallies strategy [1][17][18]. Ferrosilicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5662, 5790, and 5494 respectively, with price increases of 46, 44, and 48 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Increasing production, declining demand, and high inventory pressure [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, short - term weak rebound, advisable to wait and see [1][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term Long Participation [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously Bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously Bullish [1][14][15] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously Bearish [1][18][19] Core Views - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace profits are still good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high hot metal output. The demand side remains weak, and construction steel transactions are hovering at a low level. However, the production restriction policies during the military parade have not been fully implemented, which continues to support the market's expectation of supply-side contraction. The raw material side also brings disturbances. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and currently, it is in a neutral position. Short-term market trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The output and apparent demand of hot-rolled coils have decreased month-on-month, and inventories have slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The export profit of hot-rolled coils has significantly declined, and exports may be affected in the future. Strong macro expectations provide support at the bottom, and the production restriction expectations during the military parade support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term market trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal output has slightly increased. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both decreased, while port and steel mill inventories have increased simultaneously. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm in the short term. Under the dominance of fundamentals, the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Coke spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits continue to improve. Some regions have announced production restriction policies during the military parade, and the supply side may contract to some extent in the future. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, with relatively stable output and inventory. In the medium term, the raw material side may still be supported by news of production restrictions and cutbacks, maintaining a strong trend. In the short term, the current price is relatively high, and the exchange has introduced new trading restrictions on coking coal, so there may be a short-term correction. It is advisable to wait and see [1][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal output has remained flat month-on-month, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month-on-month, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of hot metal output is still high, and the raw material demand is relatively stable. Recently, news of coal mine production restrictions still supports the market, and the medium-term trend may remain strong. However, the exchange has restricted the trading limit of the 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fee, which may dampen market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations and it is advisable to wait and see [1][14][15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. With the concentrated release of a new round of demand, short-term demand resilience remains. The total on-balance-sheet inventory continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the main contract has gradually shifted to the 01 contract. Market sentiment has declined but still has some momentum. In the short term, the cost side has relatively strong support. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. Enterprise inventories have slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. Warehouse receipts have continued to increase compared to last week, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Currently, the main contract has switched to the 2511 contract. Short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. Continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace and electric furnace profits are good, and steel mills are highly motivated to produce. The demand side is weak, but production restriction expectations support the market. In the medium term, it will fluctuate within a range, and short-term trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Output and apparent demand have decreased, and inventories have slightly increased. Export profits have declined, but macro and production restriction expectations support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, hot metal output has increased slightly, foreign ore arrivals and shipments have decreased, and inventories have increased. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm, and the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. Coke - Spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits have improved. Some regions have announced production restriction policies, and the supply side may contract. Currently, supply and demand are balanced, and in the medium term, it will maintain a strong trend. In the short term, there may be a correction due to high prices and trading restrictions [1][11][12]. Coking Coal - Domestic output is flat, Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, and mine end inventory transfer has slowed down. Raw material demand is stable, and production restriction news supports the market. In the medium term, it will remain strong, but short-term market sentiment may be dampened by trading restrictions [1][14][15]. Ferrosilicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, enterprise inventories are high, and supply pressure is obvious. The main contract has switched, and short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Manganese Silicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, demand has some resilience, and inventory is declining but still high. The main contract has shifted, and short-term cost support is strong. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19].

Supply - Global shipments decreased by 78,000 tons to 29.871 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments increasing by 810,000 tons to 24.198 million tons [1] - The four major mining companies' shipments rose by 132,000 tons to 2.133 million tons, while shipments from other non-mainstream countries fell by 88,000 tons to 489,000 tons [1] - The total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.621 million tons, an increase of 178,200 tons [1] Demand - Daily pig iron production averaged 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons [1] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, up by 0.31% [1] - The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity reached 90.89%, an increase of 0.98% [1] - Steel mill profit margin was 60.17%, up by 0.43% [1] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight increase, with average daily dispatch volume rising, while steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased [1] - The inventory at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [1] - The average daily dispatch volume at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 32,300 tons [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory was 88.2216 million tons, a decrease of 1.5748 million tons [1] Market Outlook - The iron ore September contract showed a strong upward trend this week, with a slight decrease in global shipment volume but an increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil [2] - The arrival volume at 45 ports increased slightly, and the demand side saw a recovery in pig iron production, returning to over 2.4 million tons per day [2] - Steel mill profit margins remain high, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to announce a growth plan for key industries, which may support demand [2] - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to remain strong, with strategies suggesting to buy on dips [2]

Supply - Global shipments decreased by 362.7 million tons to 29.949 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil's total shipments at 24.178 million tons, down by 3.694 million tons [1] - The four major mining companies' shipments totaled 20.01 million tons, a decrease of 2.75 million tons [1] - Other non-mainstream countries shipped 5.77 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons [1] - The total arrival volume at 47 ports was 25.36 million tons, an increase of 1.22 million tons [1] Demand - Daily iron water production was 2.3981 million tons, down by 0.0104 million tons [1] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31% [1] - The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.90%, down by 0.39% [1] - Steel mill profit margin was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43% [1] Inventory - As of July 10, the inventory at 47 ports was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons [1] - Daily port clearance volume slightly increased, with an increase in arrival volume leading to a small reduction in port inventory [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 0.6107 million tons to 89.7964 million tons [1] Market Outlook - Iron ore September contract showed a strong upward trend this week [2] - Global shipment volume decreased, with both Australia and Brazil's shipments down, while arrival volume at 47 ports slightly increased [2] - Steel mill repairs and production limits in Tangshan have led to a high-level decline in iron water production, but it remains around 2.4 million tons per day [2] - Despite seasonal demand risks, strong steel exports provide some support [2] - Port inventory saw a slight reduction, with a small increase in steel mills' rights ore inventory [2] - The forecast for July indicates a continued decline in iron water production, expected to maintain an average of 2.3-2.4 million tons [2] - The impact of Tangshan's production limits on iron ore demand is expected to be minimal, with new supply-side policy expectations emerging [2] - Short-term iron ore is expected to operate with fluctuations leaning towards strength, while the medium-term outlook for the September contract remains bearish [2] Trading Recommendations - The recommendation for last week was to buy on dips within the range of 700-750 [3] - The recommendation for this week is to buy on dips within the range of 730-800 [3]