Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is reshaping global trade dynamics into a more pronounced zero-sum game, with significant implications for ASEAN countries and the broader multilateral trade system [1][8]. Group 1: Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The U.S. has established a framework for "reciprocal tariffs" that allows for unilateral adjustments, replacing the multilateral agreements advocated by the WTO, thus granting the White House substantial discretionary power [2]. - ASEAN countries face challenges in forming a unified response due to their diverse political and economic structures, leading to individual negotiations with the U.S. [1][2]. - The new tariff structure has resulted in varying tax rates for ASEAN countries, with Vietnam facing a 20% tariff, which could significantly impact its export sectors and employment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Political Repercussions - The tariffs are not merely a tax adjustment but a strategic tool for the U.S. to compel concessions from other nations, creating a dynamic balance rather than mutual reductions in trade barriers [2][8]. - The tariffs have led to increased tensions in the region, as seen in the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which was influenced by U.S. trade policies [5]. - The RCEP agreement is seen as a potential counterbalance to U.S. tariffs, with expectations of increased intra-regional trade and reduced tariffs over time, although immediate benefits may be limited due to varying levels of development among ASEAN members [6][7]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. may continue to rely on tariffs as a tool for trade negotiations, creating a prolonged period of uncertainty for global trade and investment [8]. - ASEAN countries must enhance internal coordination and develop resilient supply chains to mitigate the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs and maintain competitiveness in the global market [8].

2025 年上半年，中美关系再度出现剧烈震荡。特朗普重返白宫后，又开始对中国"开火"。 2 月 1 日，美国宣布对所有中国商品加征 10% 的关税；时隔一个月，3 月 3 日又启动新一轮 10% 的关税加征措施，摆明了和中国"对着干"！ 可这种做法真的对美国好吗？早在 2021 年，美国多位权威国际关系学者就曾警示：在未发生大规模冲突的前提下，若美国与中国陷入零和博弈的对抗模 式，将是一个严重的战略误判！ 从当下的形势看，这种担心正逐步成为现实。 这位学者为何会发出如此严厉的警告？其判断的深层依据又是什么？ 拿着旧地图，找不到新大陆 他最有名的理论是"软实力"，意思是说一个国家牛不牛，不光看拳头，还得看别人服不服你。所以他说话，不像是象牙塔里的空谈，更像是在一线摸爬滚打 过的老手在交底。 这位大师叫约瑟夫·奈，哈佛大学的教授，研究了一辈子国际关系，还给好几届美国政府当过高官，搞过国防，也管过情报。 他看明白了，那张旧地图，跟今天这块新大陆，根本匹配不上！ 算盘打得再精，也得看老天爷赏不赏脸 2025年初，特朗普政府的算盘确实打得挺响。 2月加一轮关税，3月再来一轮。 奈的看法一针见血：现在美国一些管事的人，脑 ...

2023年4月15日，苏丹内战爆发，至今已两年有余。今年7月26日，苏丹内战的一方——快速支援部队领 导的政治联盟"苏丹创始联盟"正式宣布组建名为"和平"的"平行政府"，意味着敌对双方从军事对抗向政 治对抗迈出关键一步。 尽管苏丹外交部和国际社会既不认可成立"平行政府"之举，也不承认其合法性，但苏丹内战这一最新动 向无疑更令外界担忧。从权力斗争、武装冲突到政权割据，各方势力尚未决出赢家，可国家在错综复杂 的博弈中日益分裂，人道主义灾难在民间愈演愈烈。作为全球四大冲突之一，苏丹内战走向如何，这个 非洲大国是否会重蹈邻国利比亚的覆辙？如今形势更不乐观。 双线针锋相对、催生"平行政府" 苏丹内战已经进入第三年，战场局势仍不明朗，双方敌意愈演愈烈。两大交战阵营分别由苏丹武装部队 和快速支援部队（以下简称"快支部队"）领衔：前者自2019年4月将前总统巴希尔解职后接管国家政权 至今，代表着国际社会承认的苏丹政府；后者源自达尔富尔地区部落民兵组织"金戈威德"，在达尔富尔 冲突期间成为巴希尔的"私人雇佣军"和"白手套"，2013年形式上被苏丹政府收编后，冠以"快速支援部 队"之名。 此后十年苏丹经历了从巴希尔时代到后巴希尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Metal Materials Circulation Association has issued a proposal to resist "involution-style" vicious competition and promote a scientific and orderly development of the steel circulation industry [1] Group 1: Industry Competition - The proposal emphasizes the need to abandon "involution-style" competition and strictly adhere to the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China [1] - It calls for a firm resistance against unfair practices such as selling below cost, defaming reputation, and stealing trade secrets [1] - The association advocates for healthy competition based on product quality, service value, and technological innovation [1] Group 2: Industry Collaboration - The proposal encourages strengthening industry information exchange and risk warning to avoid blind expansion or irrational order grabbing [1] - It promotes exploring mutually beneficial cooperation models in logistics, warehousing, and processing to reduce overall social costs [1] - The association firmly opposes behaviors such as mutual defamation, malicious price cutting, and non-compliant order grabbing, aiming to avoid falling into the "zero-sum game" trap [1]

期货盯盘神器专属文章 亚洲烧碱周报："内卷"政策下的零和博弈，烧碱价格逆势上涨，是铝土矿需求太强，还是供应"另有隐 情"？ 相关链接 ...

回顾过去的关税战，中国在面对特朗普挑起的关税战争时，表现出了惊人的韧性和灵活性。在这场"贸易战"中，中国并未选择妥协，而是通过自身的经济 实力和市场吸引力进行反击，最终迫使美国撤回了部分过于极端的措施。这一过程中，世界各国都看到了中国在面对美国压力时展现出来的实力。 事实上，美国对中国的"威胁"更多地像是一部幻想小说。假设中美关系进一步恶化，稀土资源的供应中断，中美贸易基本断绝，这种局面恐怕连美国自己 都不敢细想。稀土作为现代科技的基础，中国在全球稀土市场中的主导地位意味着，一旦中国决定限制稀土出口，美国的智能手机、先进武器甚至日常工 业产品的生产链条可能会陷入停滞。 除此之外，中国的"后招"远不止于此。金融领域是一个强有力的反制工具。中国持有大量美国国债，若中国决定大规模减持，美国的金融市场将受到剧烈 冲击，美元汇率下跌、利率飙升，甚至美国经济的正常运转都会受到极大威胁。 在外交手段上，中国同样有着多种策略。加强与俄罗斯的战略合作、推动金砖国家的经济合作、扩大上海合作组织的影响力，这些举措都不仅是为了应对 美国的威胁，而是在为未来的全球战略格局布局。当美国仍在沉迷于"零和博弈"的思维方式时，中国早已在棋盘上 ...

Core Points - The European Union (EU) has unanimously approved a retaliatory tariff list targeting key American industries worth €93 billion, including aircraft, automobiles, and whiskey, shortly after Ursula von der Leyen's visit to Beijing [1][5] - This shift in EU policy reflects a strategic pivot towards China, as the EU seeks to redefine its relationship with China amidst increasing pressure from the U.S. [3][11] Group 1: Economic Implications - The EU's tariff list includes €21 billion targeting agricultural products like soybeans and corn, aimed at Republican strongholds, and €72 billion focused on high-value industrial goods, directly affecting key states in the upcoming U.S. elections [5][6] - The EU's trade deficit with the U.S. has surged, while EU investments in the U.S. have created 4 million jobs, indicating a complex economic interdependence that could be disrupted by a trade war [6][8] Group 2: Technological Considerations - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act has provided substantial subsidies that threaten to siphon off European renewable energy companies, highlighting the EU's need for green technology cooperation with China [8][9] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has placed additional strain on the EU, which bears a significant burden of refugee costs while U.S. arms manufacturers have seen profits soar, prompting the EU to seek new strategic partnerships [9][11] - The EU's recent actions signify a desire to assert its sovereignty and independence from U.S. influence, aiming to become a partner to all major powers rather than a subordinate ally [11]

Group 1 - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased over 3,000 cutting-edge exhibits from more than 800 companies, highlighting the rapid advancements in AI technology and its applications globally [1] - The event attracted over 1,200 participants from more than 40 countries and international organizations, emphasizing the collaborative spirit in AI development [1] - Various innovative AI products were displayed, including Tesla's humanoid robot and AI glasses developed by Chinese companies, reflecting the diverse imagination and potential of AI [1] Group 2 - The IMF's "AI Readiness Index" indicates a significant gap in AI governance capabilities, with developed countries scoring 0.68, while emerging and low-income countries scored 0.46 and 0.32 respectively [2] - The conference resulted in the release of the "AI Global Governance Action Plan," calling for collaborative efforts in AI development and governance, alongside China's proposal to establish a World AI Cooperation Organization [2] - China's initiatives aim to address the "rules deficit" in global AI governance, promoting a shared vision for AI that benefits humanity [2] Group 3 - China's "cooperation for mutual benefit" approach in AI development has led to the emergence of several open-source AI models, enhancing global innovation and technology sharing [3] - The use of DeepSeek in disaster relief efforts demonstrates the practical benefits of China's AI advancements, showcasing its potential to bridge the digital divide and empower economies in developing countries [3] Group 4 - The contrasting methodologies of the US and China in AI development highlight a divide, with the US focusing on technology control while China advocates for multilateral cooperation [4] - The need for international collaboration in AI governance is emphasized, with calls to ensure AI serves humanity and avoids becoming a tool for the wealthy [4] - China's promotion of "cooperation for mutual benefit" is seen as a critical step towards achieving technological equity and fostering a sustainable digital future [4]

Core Insights - Retail investors are entering the high-risk forex market with unprecedented enthusiasm, reminiscent of the previous "Meme stock" frenzy, but the zero-sum nature and high leverage of forex trading pose significant risks [1] - In the first half of 2025, retail investors are estimated to invest approximately $600 billion daily in the forex market, a 28% increase year-on-year, with a staggering 51% increase when excluding Japan [1] - Despite representing a small portion of the global daily forex market of $7.5 trillion, the collective bets from amateur speculators are raising concerns [1] Group 1: Leverage and Risks - The core attraction of forex trading for retail investors is its high leverage, which is also viewed as the greatest risk by industry insiders [2] - Retail traders can use financial instruments like Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to control large trades with minimal capital, with leverage ratios reaching up to 20:1 in highly regulated countries and even 500:1 in less regulated regions [2] - The sudden drop of the dollar this year caught many investors off guard, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the market [2] Group 2: Geographic Trends - The surge in retail forex trading is spreading globally, with Japan previously being the center due to low interest rates and a stagnant stock market [3] - Currently, growth is primarily driven by regions such as Vietnam, India, and Mexico, while the U.S. market remains relatively subdued due to restrictions on CFD trading [3] - Although retail forex trading is growing rapidly, it still represents only 13% of stock trading volume, despite a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3] Group 3: Influence of Social Media - The rise of "financial influencers" on social media and the proliferation of online courses are significant factors driving retail participation in forex trading [4] - These self-proclaimed "experts" promote their knowledge and courses on platforms like YouTube and X, attracting novice investors [4] - Some investors, like Greer, choose to learn from experienced professionals instead of influencers, indicating a divide in the approach to education in trading [4]

Group 1 - The "Belt and Road" initiative has achieved a remarkable project cooperation total of $124 billion in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total of $122 billion for the entire year of 2024 and setting a historical high since the initiative's launch ten years ago [1] - Construction contract projects reached $66.2 billion, while industrial investment cooperation amounted to $57.1 billion, with the average project size exceeding $1.2 billion for the first time [1] - China's construction cooperation in Africa surged by 395% year-on-year, and investment in Central Asia increased by 257%, highlighting deep strategic ties with global southern countries [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on Chinese anode-grade graphite, raising the total tax rate to 160%, aiming to choke China's new energy industry chain [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense initiated a two-week "emergency review" requiring Chinese engineers to exit all U.S. military cloud service systems, triggered by concerns over security vulnerabilities in Microsoft's "Digital Guardian" system [3][5] - The U.S. response reflects a growing anxiety over China's economic resilience demonstrated by the "Belt and Road" initiative, revealing structural contradictions within the U.S. itself [5] Group 3 - China's response to U.S. actions emphasizes maintaining healthy and stable economic relations, showcasing a strategic wisdom that contrasts with the U.S. approach [5][7] - The invitation extended by the Chinese embassy in the U.S. for American officials to attend the military parade on September 3 symbolizes a diplomatic gesture aimed at fostering cooperation [5] - The ongoing trade and technology conflicts highlight a divergence in strategic thinking, with China pursuing a path of mutual benefit and trust-building through projects, while the U.S. remains entrenched in a zero-sum mindset [7]