美国杜克大学社会学系教授高柏的新著《把脉：全球巨变与中国经济》，以高屋建瓴的全球视野、严谨 缜密的学术框架和鞭辟入里的分析论证，敏锐捕捉世界经济秩序的结构性变迁与中国经济生态的深刻转 型，以百年历史为经，以全球视野为纬，深刻揭示了"大变局"的历史前缘与底层逻辑，为中国未来发展 寻觅可资镜鉴的历史智慧。 □薛世君 这些年，世界局势简直令人眼花缭乱：俄乌、巴以、以伊都爆发冲突，特朗普全球加关税……历史的进 程仿佛突然换挡，将世界带入一个重大事件的密集多发期。 置身于这样一个风云激荡的时代，世界秩序如同万花筒般瞬息万变。对我们来说，在外部环境剧烈震荡 与经济周期深度调整的双重压力下，中国经济如何在惊涛骇浪中破浪前行，在荆棘丛生处开辟新局，已 然成为牵动亿万人心的时代之问。 那么，"百年未有之大变局"究竟蕴含着怎样的历史密码？其背后潜藏着哪些深层次的运行机制与演化逻 辑？中国这艘巨轮又该如何在惊涛骇浪中把稳航向，化危为机？ 本书认为，所谓"百年未有之大变局"，其实就是全球化钟摆运动、霸权更迭和科技革命这三大历史长周 期的同频共振。一个世纪前，这三个历史周期的同频共振导致第一次世界大战爆发、金本位崩溃、1929 —19 ...

最后再给大家提个醒，美国这次加税虽然炒高了美铜，但对全球铜供应链的影响才刚刚开始。那些在美国有铜矿的公司，比如Freeport-McMoRan，最近 股价涨得那叫一个欢，但加拿大的矿商也在盯着美国市场，未来竞争肯定会更激烈。咱们作为中长线投资者，与其追着短期波动跑，不如把目光放长 远，多关注那些受益于新能源革命的铜企和相关基金。 不过，这波涨价能持续多久呢？咱们得从供需两头看。从供应端讲，美国想通过加税刺激本土铜矿开采，可铜矿从勘探到投产少说也得三五年，远水解 不了近渴。就拿智利来说，作为全球最大铜生产国，人家自己都面临缺水减产的问题，根本没法在短期内多给美国供货。再看需求端，现在全球都在搞 新能源革命，电动汽车、光伏电站、半导体哪个离得开铜？普华永道都发警告了，到2035年气候变化可能让全球32%的半导体产能面临铜供应中断风险。 这种情况下，铜价的长期支撑力可不容小觑。 对咱们投资者来说，这波行情该怎么把握呢？首先得明白，短期的关税炒作肯定会有波动，就像7月8日暴涨之后，9日价格又回落了2.75%。但从中长期 来看，铜的基本面依然强劲。长江证券的报告就指出，全球制造业已经盘整了两年多，一旦美联储降息带动经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The articles emphasize the importance of the anti-corruption struggle in China, highlighting the need for a comprehensive and persistent approach to combat corruption, which is seen as a significant threat to the Party's governance and the country's modernization efforts [3][5][6]. Group 1: Importance of Anti-Corruption - The anti-corruption struggle is essential for ensuring the Party's mission and maintaining its integrity, as corruption undermines the Party's foundational goals and poses a risk to its long-term governance [3][4]. - The Party's nature and mission necessitate a firm stance against corruption, as it is incompatible with the Party's commitment to serving the people and upholding justice [3][4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Approach - A historical and strategic perspective is crucial for understanding the anti-corruption fight, which must be viewed as a long-term and systemic effort rather than a series of isolated actions [4][5][6]. - The need for a unified approach among various supervisory bodies is emphasized, advocating for collaboration and coordination to enhance the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures [8][9]. Group 3: Implementation and Mechanisms - The articles outline the necessity of strict adherence to laws and regulations in the anti-corruption process, ensuring that actions are based on established legal frameworks and standards [7][12]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of training and capacity building within the disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies to improve their effectiveness in combating corruption [11][12]. Group 4: Continuous Improvement - The need for ongoing analysis and adaptation of strategies to address emerging corruption issues is highlighted, advocating for a proactive approach to identify and mitigate risks [10][11]. - The articles stress the importance of fostering a culture of integrity and accountability within the Party and its organizations to prevent corruption from taking root [10][13].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 1.1 背景 美联储连续降息至1%（2003年），叠加中国加入WTO后工业化加速，全球大宗商品需求 爆发，流动性泛滥。 1.2 标志性行情 铜： 从2002年低点1.5万元/吨飙升至2006年8.5万元/吨（涨幅超400%），主因中国电 网基建爆发性需求。 橡胶： 从2001年6000元/吨涨至2006年3万元/吨，受汽车产业扩张及东南亚供应紧张推 动。 1.3 转折点 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 国内期货市场自成立以来，经历了多次显著的跌势转涨势行情，这些转折往往由宏观政 策、供需突变或地缘事件驱动。结合历史资料，以下是几波具有代表性的行情反转： 2001–2007年 大宗商品超级周期 2003年国内城镇化政策落地，需求预期逆转前期熊市。 2008–2011年 金融危机后的复苏与政策刺激 2.1 背景 2008年全球金融危机导致商品暴跌（铜半年内从6万至2万/吨），2009年中国推出"四万 亿"计划+宽松货币政策。 2.2 标志性行情 棉花： 2008年低点1万元/吨暴涨至2010年3.3万元/吨，因新疆减产与纺织业复苏。 螺纹钢： 2009年初 ...

新华社记者刘阳 查问题的过程，就是走好新时代党的群众路线的过程。知屋漏者在宇下，知政失者在草野。作风问题本 质上是党性问题，其核心是党同人民群众的关系问题。学习教育强调"开门教育"，就是要紧紧依靠群 众，让群众参与贯穿全过程。人民群众深恶痛绝、反映强烈的问题有没有得到重视？解难点、治痛点、 疏堵点有没有下足力气？各级党组织应该抓紧时间深入检视剖析、查漏补缺。 纵深推进学查改，确保学习教育取得实效 深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育已到关键时候，问题整改整治任务很重。此时千万不能有船到码头 车到站、歇歇脚松松劲的想法，反而要再次审视学习教育的重要意义、重点任务，深入学习党中央关于 党的自我革命思路、措施，要在一体推进学查改上下更大功夫，推动学习教育走深走实、取得实效、不 走过场。 怎么学？深入学习党的自我革命思路、措施，结合问题、联系实际学。各级党组织要把学习贯彻习近平 总书记在中共中央政治局第二十一次集体学习时的重要讲话精神作为一项重大政治任务，纳入学习教育 的重要内容。每名党员都要扪心自问，通过学习教育有没有把党的作风规定融入思想和血液，有没有从 思想上正本清源、固本培元，有没有涵养"知所从来"的定力、保持" ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from Japan's consumer market experiences, particularly during economic downturns, to identify growth opportunities in the Chinese market [8][24][27] - It highlights a three-day immersive course aimed at entrepreneurs and industry leaders to explore strategies for resilience and growth in the current economic climate [5][17][24] Group 1: Course Overview - The course will feature over 100 successful consumer entrepreneurs, including industry disruptors and founders of listed companies, providing a rich networking opportunity [10][11] - It aims to dissect the methodologies of Japanese consumer giants, focusing on efficiency, demand reconstruction, and capital strategies [5][24][27] Group 2: Economic Context - The Chinese consumer market is facing significant challenges, with financing in the sector reverting to 2016 levels and 68% of new consumer brands hitting growth bottlenecks [26][24] - In contrast, Japanese companies like Sally's have shown resilience, with a 23% increase in store numbers and a 105.8% profit increase during economic downturns [24][27] Group 3: Learning from Japan - The course will cover key lessons from Japan's "lost 30 years," demonstrating how brands can thrive in low-growth environments [8][24] - Specific strategies include "subtracting management" to reduce costs without compromising quality and understanding consumer insights for product development [29][31][32] Group 4: Target Audience - The course is designed for consumer company founders/CEOs looking to break through growth ceilings and for supply chain and brand operators aiming to optimize cost structures [36]

郭元强强调，要坚持从抓作风入手推进全面从严治党，把党的自我革命推向深入。要持 之以恒加强党性修养，坚持不懈用党的创新理论凝心铸魂，大力弘扬大别山精神、抗洪精 神、抗疫精神，引导党员干部坚定理想信念、铸牢对党忠诚、厚植为民情怀。要强化对干部 的监督管理，提高党组织日常监督的穿透力和有效性，突出加强对"一把手"和领导班子的全 方位管理和经常性监督，全过程监督权力运行。要坚定不移正风肃纪反腐，深入推进风腐同 查同治，坚决铲除腐败滋生的土壤和条件。要发挥领导干部示范带动作用，真正做到严于律 己、严负其责、严管所辖，引领全市广大党员干部凝心聚力、干事创业，不断开创武汉高质 量发展新局面。 会上，市委常委同志紧密联系思想工作实际，针对学习教育个人查摆问题，分别作了检 视发言。 编辑：代婧怡 7月8日，市委常委会召开深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育查摆问题情况检视交流 会，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于加强党的作风建设的重要论述，对照中央八项规定及其 实施细则精神，围绕查摆问题进行检视剖析，进一步提高思想认识、明确整改措施，推动学 习教育走深走实、见行见效，为加快推动"三个优势转化"、重塑新时代武汉之"重"、在支点 建设中当 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 SPI资产管理公司合伙人斯蒂芬·伊尼斯（Stephen Innes）在周二的一份报告中表示："他们突然的大幅增 产不仅仅是个数字，更像是一种宣言——是一声警告。"他称，"OPEC+已经放下手术刀，拿起三叉 戟"，不再是小心翼翼地调控价格，而是猛力争抢市场份额。 OPEC+一直在逐步提高产量，试图将去年自愿减产的220万桶/日原油重新推向市场。相比5月、6月和7 月每日41.1万桶的增幅，8月54.8万桶/日的增产规模要大得多。 到9月，该组织有望完全撤销这轮自愿减产，比市场原本预期的提前约一年。伊尼斯形容这次骤然转向 为"如同侧旋球一般迅猛的回撤"， "表面上看是在开闸放油，实际上是一场惩罚机制的启动。" 美国没有"疯狂钻探" 在6月对伊朗核设施发动袭击之后，特朗普敦促"所有人"控制油价，担心能源价格上涨会引发消费者强 烈反弹。 特朗普曾在竞选中承诺维持低能源成本，并喊出"疯狂钻探（drill, baby, drill）"的口号，试图推动本土 能源开发。《华尔街日报》报道称，他的政府也持续反对拜登时期的绿色能源政策，并已将这场斗争延 伸到与欧盟的贸易谈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-EU trade negotiations are facing significant challenges, with both sides having substantial differences in their core demands, making a comprehensive agreement unlikely [1][5][6]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is striving to reach a preliminary bilateral trade agreement with the US by July 9, while also preparing for all possible outcomes, including a retaliatory list [1]. - The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [1]. - The EU has decided to postpone retaliatory measures against US products worth €210 billion until July 14 to allow more time for negotiations [1]. Group 2: Strategic Perspectives - The political leadership in the US has undergone a profound change in its strategic perception of the EU, while European political elites have not yet adjusted their views, leading to a significant gap in mutual understanding [2]. - The Biden administration emphasizes the importance of European allies, but the return of Trump has altered the strategic dynamics, with the US viewing the EU as a contributor to its trade deficit [2][3]. Group 3: Internal EU Disagreements - Within the EU, there are significant internal disagreements regarding the acceptance of a 10% baseline tax rate, with countries like Germany and Italy being more amenable compared to France [5]. - The EU is willing to make concessions on purchasing US agricultural products and liquefied natural gas, but the US insists on addressing its trade deficit, focusing on non-tariff barriers [5]. Group 4: Future Relations - The relationship between the US and EU is expected to remain fraught with distrust and conflict, extending beyond trade to include technology, investment, and geopolitical strategies [6]. - European political elites are increasingly anxious about their competitive position in the global technology race, leading to a consensus on the need for strategic autonomy and resilience [7][12]. Group 5: Economic and Technological Interaction - The US and EU are both adopting protective measures in their economic policies, leading to increased competition and mutual suspicion [9][10]. - The US is focusing on protecting traditional industries and advancing critical technologies, while the EU aims to bolster its own industries and regulatory frameworks [9][10]. Group 6: Supply Chain Security - Both the US and EU are restructuring their supply chains to enhance economic resilience, but they are doing so independently [11]. - The US has been actively forming agreements with countries for critical mineral supply chains, while the EU is prioritizing supply chain security as a core economic strategy [11]. Group 7: Strategic Autonomy - In response to the "America First" policy, Europe is seeking to strengthen its strategic autonomy by enhancing its industrial policies and reducing reliance on the US [12]. - The EU is also working on developing its own security frameworks, recognizing the need to rely less on NATO and the US for defense [12].

Core Insights - The green low-carbon investment in China has exceeded 14% of total social investment, reaching 6 trillion yuan, filling much of the decline in real estate investment since 2020, indicating that green low-carbon has become a new growth driver for the Chinese economy [1][2] - China is transitioning into a high-income economy, with coastal regions and major urban areas already resembling developed economies, highlighting a shift in comparative advantages and growth dynamics [1] - The energy technology revolution centered around green low-carbon is underway, with significant increases in wind and solar power installations projected from 2021 to 2024, leading to a cumulative capacity exceeding 1.4 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024 [1] Investment and Economic Growth - The new energy sector, referred to as "new three samples," accounts for approximately 6% of total exports and over 2% of GDP, emphasizing its role in economic growth [2] - The investment in the green low-carbon sector is a substantial part of the overall economic landscape, reinforcing its importance as a new growth engine [2] Energy Transition and Reform - There is a strong emphasis on deepening reforms to facilitate the transition to a new energy system, focusing on high proportions of non-fossil energy and demand-side management [2] - The proposed reforms aim to enhance the deployment of green low-carbon technologies and ensure a fair distribution of costs among power generation companies, the grid, and end-users [2] - Future initiatives include incorporating renewable energy into carbon markets and supporting the profitability of wind and solar developments [2]