Group 1 - The Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF), managing assets worth 450 billion USD, is shifting its focus towards gold, commodities, and global equities to enhance returns after a lackluster performance in the first half of the year [1][2] - The fund's return rate for January to June was only 1.19%, but it aims to achieve an annualized return rate of over 3% by 2025 [1] - GPF has significantly increased its gold holdings, which now account for 0.43% of total assets, reflecting a more than doubling in quantity since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The fund has reduced its investment in local and overseas equities from 22.6% to 19% of its total portfolio due to market volatility caused by U.S. tariffs [3] - Approximately 57% of the fund's assets remain in domestic and international fixed income, unchanged from the end of 2024 [3] - The fund's projected return rate for 2024 is 3.5%, more than double the previous year's return of 1.46% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Lisa Cook's removal marks the first attempt by a sitting president to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor [1] - Cook was inclined to support the majority vote of the FOMC, and her departure increases the likelihood of a rate cut in September [1] - This potential rate cut is expected to put pressure on the US dollar while supporting stocks and other risk assets, including Bitcoin [1]

Group 1 - Oil prices have stabilized after a recent increase, with Brent crude nearing $68 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $63, reflecting a nearly 3% rise last week [1] - Traders are closely monitoring supply tensions and the overall sentiment in risk assets following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month [1] - The U.S. has threatened to double tariffs on all imports from India to 50% in retaliation for India's purchase of Russian oil, while Indian diplomats state that local refineries will continue to buy crude from Moscow before the tariffs take effect [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's remarks, risk assets, including commodities, are expected to potentially rise on Monday, benefiting from economic stimulus and a weaker dollar [1]

Economic Context - At the 2025 Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September seen as almost certain by the market[4] - The U.S. economy is facing dual challenges: inflation pressures rising due to tariff increases and a weak labor market with synchronized supply and demand softening[4] Inflation and Employment - Core PCE inflation has risen to 2.9%, above last year's level, with significant increases in commodity prices[4] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, non-farm employment growth has sharply slowed, indicating increasing risks to job stability[6] Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the "compensatory" average inflation targeting introduced in 2020, reverting to a more traditional flexible inflation target[7] - This adjustment reflects a recognition that intentional mild inflation overshooting is not suitable in the current economic context, especially amid severe and persistent inflation shocks[7] Market Reactions - Market expectations for a September rate cut have surged, with over 85% probability indicated in federal funds futures[7] - If the Fed opts for more aggressive easing, such as a 50 basis point cut or a series of cuts, it could lead to significant impacts on risk assets, particularly in the tech sector and emerging markets[8] Dollar and Risk Assets - The dollar faces structural pressures, potentially weakening further if the Fed accelerates rate cuts, which could increase commodity prices and affect capital flows to emerging markets[8] - The stock market may experience a revaluation, with increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high beta assets like tech stocks[8]

格隆汇8月18日｜在特朗普与乌泽连斯基会谈前，新兴市场资产小幅走高，投资者正关注俄乌和平协议 是否会有进展的迹象。MSCI新兴市场股票指数一度上涨0.6%。投资者在本周晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔年 会上也保持谨慎，鲍威尔的讲话可能暗示9月降息的可能性。"风险资产的强劲表现已令人瞩目，估值越 来越显得紧绷。"德银分析师Jim Reid带领的团队在一份报告中写道。瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官 Mark Haefele团队在报告中表示，鉴于谈判立场差距巨大、战场缺乏决定性进展，"我们预计俄乌冲突将 持续到明年。任何谈判进程都会被拉长，因为缺乏信任和目标差距过大，任何协议都可能受到怀疑。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1][2] - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, driven primarily by final consumption expenditure, which contributed 52% to economic growth [2] - The supply side saw industrial production and the demand side experienced a rebound in consumption, while exports showed resilience despite external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the main factors driving major asset performance are expected to shift from external to internal [3] - Investment opportunities in the capital market include high-growth sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, military industry, new consumption driven by emotional value demand, and high dividend yield sectors [3] - The bond market may experience fluctuations in the short term due to policy observation, but opportunities may arise in the fourth quarter with potential interest rate cuts by the central bank [3]

Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility recently, with its value surging 3.2% on August 11, surpassing the critical level of $122,000 [1] - After reaching a historical high of $120,000 on July 14, Bitcoin's price has shown a rebound trend in recent trading days [1] - Ethereum also performed well, climbing above $4,300, marking its highest level since December 2021 [2] Group 2 - Approximately 100,000 investors globally suffered losses due to liquidations amid market volatility [2] - In the last 24 hours, liquidations totaled $120 million, with long positions accounting for $8.823 million and short positions for $110 million [4] - Institutional interest in cryptocurrencies has significantly increased, with investment tools holding $113 billion in Bitcoin and about $13 billion in Ethereum [5] Group 3 - The rise in Bitcoin's price is attributed to sustained inflows from institutional funds, particularly from corporate finance and U.S. spot ETFs [5] - The market sentiment shifted positively following new tariffs on imported gold bars, benefiting Bitcoin as a borderless, tariff-free store of value [5] - Experts predict that positive macroeconomic outlooks will continue to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin potentially breaking historical highs this month [5] Group 4 - There is an increased correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin, which explains the recent price movements of Bitcoin [6] - Optimistic expectations regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also influenced market dynamics [6] - Investors are heavily favoring bullish options for Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting bets on the timing of macro rate cuts and the ongoing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in traditional finance [7]

8月11日，比特币一度上涨3.2%，突破12.2万美元。7月14日，比特币首次突破12万美元并创历史新高后持续震荡下行，近几个交易日则呈现反弹态势。上 周末，以太坊大涨至4300美元上方，创下自2021年12月以来的最高水平。 这一涨势背后，是大型投资者对加密货币兴趣的日益增长。根据Coingecko数据，所谓的"数字资产财务公司"上市后转向大量持有加密货币的投资工具， 迄今已累计持有价值1130亿美元的比特币，类似的以太坊投资工具至今已囤积约130亿美元的代币。 BTC Markets加密分析师Rachael Lucas表示："比特币向历史高位攀升，得益于机构资金持续流入企业财务、美国现货ETF，以及在美国对进口金条加征新 关税后市场情绪的转变。随着黄金面临供应瓶颈和政策风险，比特币作为一种无国界、免关税的价值储存工具，正越来越受到投资者青睐。" 专家还预计，积极的宏观经济前景继续支撑包括加密货币在内的风险资产，预计比特币本月将突破历史高点。 | Name | | Price | 24H % | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Bitcoin BTC | $121,452.26 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，7月以来，美元指数在贬值周期中出现反弹行情，但随着7月非农数据的出炉戛然而止，全球市 场亦随之大幅震荡。该行认为，上半年政策冲击下，美国经济已经在6月触底，并在7月有改善迹象。债务发行潮也已经在7月开启，正在逐 渐吸收美元流动性。往前看，关税对通胀的影响可能开始逐渐显露，叠加美元流动性收紧，可能在8-9月间不利于美股表现，10年期美债利 率也可能快速触底并逐步上行至4.8%附近。但从全年或更长期的角度来看，随着财政对货币干预越发明显，美元流动性的再度宽松可能是 大势所趋，叠加财政对基本面的托底，该行认为风险资产长期来看仍具潜力，美元下行周期也将持续。 中金公司主要观点如下： 从美元指数看资金流、基本面与美元流动性 美元指数的涨跌，可以反映跨国资金流、基本面和美元流动性等多方面因素。 从长期的视角来看，美元指数强弱反映了美元资产的配置需求。过去两年，美元指数持续在美国财政、贸易双赤字走阔的背景下维持强 势，反映的是美股AI信仰下跨国资金持续流入美国的影响，而今年4月对等关税冲击带来的市场恐慌，整体拉低了美元指数的震荡区间，这 反映了资金在美国和其他市场间的再平衡正在发生。 ...

人民财讯8月7日电，中金公司（601995）认为，上半年政策冲击下，美国经济已经在6月触底，并在7月 有改善迹象。债务发行潮也已经在7月开启，正在逐渐吸收美元流动性。往前看，关税对通胀的影响可 能开始逐渐显露，叠加美元流动性收紧，可能在8—9月间不利于美股表现，10年期美债利率也可能快速 触底并逐步上行至4.8%附近。但从全年或更长期的角度来看，随着财政对货币干预越发明显，美元流 动性的再度宽松可能是大势所趋，叠加财政对基本面的托底，风险资产长期来看仍具潜力，美元下行周 期也将持续。 ...