Market Overview - Non-farm payroll data is set to be released tonight, with the overall market in a wait-and-see mode. Asian and European stock markets are mostly flat, while India's unexpected rate cut led to a 0.8% increase in its stock market [1] - Following a significant drop in Tesla's stock price, Asian suppliers in Tesla's supply chain also experienced declines. However, after a cooling of tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, U.S. stock index futures saw a slight increase, with Tesla's pre-market shares rising over 6% [1] Commodity Performance - Precious metals continue to rise due to technical breakthroughs and industrial demand, with silver up over 1% and platinum increasing over 2% to its highest level since 2022 [2] - Spot gold saw a slight increase of approximately 0.2%, while both New York silver and spot silver rose over 1.4% [7] Stock Index Performance - Core asset performance shows that S&P 500 futures, Dow futures, and Nasdaq 100 futures all rose over 0.4% [3][10] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.5%, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained mostly flat [4] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index increased slightly by 0.2%, while the euro and pound both fell by 0.2%, and the yen depreciated by approximately 0.3% [5] - U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by about 2 basis points [6] Oil and Cryptocurrency - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by over 0.5% [8] - Bitcoin dropped about 1% to below $104,000, while Ethereum fell approximately 6% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar and US Treasury bonds are no longer considered safe-haven assets, and the dollar is expected to weaken in the coming years, potentially becoming a risk asset [1][2] - The market is experiencing a shift, leading to increased volatility, and while the dollar was previously strong, it is now facing challenges due to uncertainties such as tariffs [2] - Despite the weakening dollar, there is no recommendation against investing in US stocks; rather, it is suggested to preserve gains accumulated in the US stock market by reallocating funds to non-US assets [2] Group 2 - There is a significant influx of global capital into the Chinese capital markets, particularly the Hong Kong market, which has seen increased liquidity since September of last year [1][3] - The correlation between A-shares and precious metals has shifted, with both now behaving more like safe-haven assets, especially during downturns in the US stock market [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has reported a substantial increase in the base currency balance, leading to lower overnight rates and a surge of funds into the Hong Kong market, with estimates of $2 trillion to $3 trillion in overseas capital flowing in [3]

现货白银 中美经贸关系释放积极信号，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》落地，双方互降关税。贸易局势的阶段性缓和使得全球股市普遍反弹，市场风 险偏好显著回升。投资者纷纷从避险资产转向风险资产，黄金作为传统避险资产，其吸引力大打折扣。资金大量流出黄金市场，推动金价下 行，昨日现货黄金价格跌破3200.00美元/盎司的重要心理关口，日内下跌超50美元，创4月15日以来的低位。 不仅中美贸易关系改善，市场消息称美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议也"接近达成"，进一步强化了市场的乐观情绪，持续对金价形成 压制。美联储副主席杰斐逊就经济前景发表的讲话中，他指出，关税以及相关的不确定性，可能在今年减缓美国经济增长、推高通胀。 交易策略： 现货黄金 反弹至3220.00企稳做空，目标3190.00 杰斐逊在纽约联储组织的会议上表示，关于政府政策的不确定性正在加剧，目前尚不清楚关税对物价上涨的影响是较为短期还是较为持久。他 明确下调了对美国今年经济增长的预期，不过仍预计美国经济将继续扩张。他特别提到，"如果目前宣布的关税措施持续下去，可能会中断通 胀放缓的进展，至少在短期内会推高通胀。" 从通胀角度来看，杰斐逊认为，最近的通胀数 ...

操作评级 贵金属 女女女 普金属日报 2025年05月13日 刘冬博 高级分析师 F3062795 Z0015311 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属延续回落。近期贸易谈判和地缘纷争交织,昨日中美发布联合声明降低对等关税,市场反应强 烈,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢价。国际金价下跌已接近10%，关注3200美元处支撑有效性。上周美联 储会议鲍威尔室申需等待更多经济数据指导决策,今晚关注美国CPI数据。 市场对于黄金下跌的解释: 1. 贸易硝烟散去削弱避险价值 黄金作为"乱世英雄"的特性正在经受考验。上个月当特朗普政府突然宣布全面加征关税时,金价曾单周暴涨 8%触及3500美元历史高位。如今随着贸易战火药味淡化,BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash指出:"市场对 白宫反复无常政策的过度反应,反而成为金价回调的伏笔。" 2. 美元王者归来压制金价 美元指数同日暴涨1.5%突破101关口,创下近两个月新高至101.97。这形成了对黄金的双重打击:一方面美 元计价使黄金对海外买家更昂贵, ...

新华财经上海5月12日电（葛佳明）5月12日，全球资本市场避险情绪降温，风险偏好获得提振，港股尾 盘急速拉升。进入欧洲交易时段，欧洲三大股指全线高开高走，美股三大股指期货大幅走强，国际油价 显著上涨，黄金重挫。 避险需求急速下降，黄金价格出现剧烈波动，日内下跌一度超过100美元，现货黄金日内跌幅扩大至 3%，最低触及3216美元/盎司；COMEX黄金主力期货合约跌幅超3%，最低触及3222美元／盎司，已经 跌破了5月1日的阶段前低，创4月14日以来新低。 进入5月，国际金价大幅震荡似乎正成为常态。在业内人士看来，考虑到地缘政治仍有不稳定因素、关 税风波仍存变数的情况下，近期金价动荡在情理之中，投资者尤其是期货投资者需要加强风险意识，普 通投资者应理性对待，避免盲目"追涨杀跌"，防范投资风险。 布伦特原油期货和美国WTI原油价格均延续上周反弹趋势，WTI原油一度涨近3%，最高触及63.41美元 ／桶，近5个交易日涨幅一度逼近10%，布伦特原油价格一度涨近4%，最高触及66.3美元／桶，近5个交 易日振幅达到10%。分析师表示，关税问题的缓和，一定程度上缓解了市场对于美国经济衰退的预期， 致使投资者预期原油需求或 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that global risk aversion has decreased due to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and easing geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in international gold prices [1] - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures are trading around $3221 per ounce, reflecting a daily drop of over 3.6% from previous highs [1][2] - Despite the recent decline, gold prices have maintained a high level of volatility throughout the year, with a notable increase in demand for gold products among younger consumers [2][3] Group 2 - A new trend has emerged in the market with ultra-lightweight gold stickers, weighing between 0.01 grams to 0.2 grams, appealing to younger consumers with prices ranging from tens to over a hundred yuan [3][5] - Gold banknotes and gold cakes have become popular in the Shenzhen market, especially themed products for occasions like Mother's Day, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards lower-weight gold items [3][5] - The price of gold banknotes is generally around 160 yuan, while the price of gold jewelry has seen a decline, with market prices dropping below 800 yuan per gram [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the easing of trade and geopolitical tensions may lead to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, putting continued pressure on gold prices [6] - However, ongoing purchases by central banks and speculative activities by retail investors may provide some support for gold prices, preventing a significant decline [6] - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its bullish outlook on gold, predicting that spot gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of the year and potentially hit $4000 by mid-2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a recent decline in gold prices, the market has maintained a high level of volatility since the beginning of the year, leading to new trends in gold purchasing behavior among consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures are trading around $3221 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 3.6% from a previous close of $3344 [1][2]. - The highest price recorded recently was $3295.5, while the lowest was $3219.2, indicating significant fluctuations in the market [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A new trend has emerged with the popularity of ultra-lightweight gold stickers, weighing between 0.01 grams to 0.2 grams, priced from tens to over a hundred yuan, appealing particularly to younger consumers [3]. - The market has also seen a rise in themed gold notes and bars, especially around occasions like Mother's Day, with sales of nearly 100 units in a single day [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The price of gold notes generally hovers around 160 yuan, with variations based on real-time gold prices and additional processing fees [6]. - High gold prices have not necessarily benefited sellers, as consumer preferences have shifted towards low-weight, design-oriented gold jewelry, reflecting a trend towards "small and beautiful" products [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that easing trade and geopolitical tensions may lead to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, potentially putting downward pressure on gold prices [6]. - However, ongoing purchases by central banks and retail speculation may provide some support for gold prices, preventing significant declines [6]. - Goldman Sachs has reiterated a bullish long-term outlook for gold, predicting that spot gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4000 by mid-2026 [7].

刚刚过去的这个周末，大事频发，随着中美贸易谈判出现积极进展、印巴等地缘政治冲突缓和，全球避 险情绪退潮，黄金跳水。 周一，亚市盘初，现货黄金大幅走低超40美元，盘中最多下跌1.4%，截至发稿报3277.89美元/盎司。 上周黄金上涨2.6%。 普京再次强调，俄罗斯愿意在不设置先决条件的情况下与乌克兰进行直接谈判。此前在伊斯坦布尔举行 的俄乌谈判破裂原因不在俄方，虽然战斗行动还在持续，但是俄方愿意与乌克兰恢复此前中断的谈判。 一度推迟的美伊第四轮谈判也正式启动。 据 央视报道 ，当地时间11日从伊朗方面获悉，伊朗和美国关 于核问题的第四轮谈判当天在阿曼首都开始举行。 黄金跳水同时，周一美股期货大幅走高。美股三大股指期货高开逾1%，纳指期货涨1.5%，标普500指 数期货涨1.27%。 分析认为，随着贸易和地缘政治紧张局势的缓和，资金可能开始从避险资产流向风险资产，这将对金价 构成持续压力。但中央银行的持续购买和散户的投机活动可能会在一定程度上支撑金价，防止出现更大 幅度的下跌。 热闻推荐 ： 国家出手！整顿隐藏式车门把手 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 据央视新闻报道，中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识，并取得实 ...

刚刚过去的这个周末，大事频发，随着中美贸易谈判出现积极进展、印巴等地缘政治冲突缓和，全球避险情绪退潮，黄金跳水。 周一，亚市盘初，现货黄金大幅走低超40美元，盘中最多下跌1.4%，截至发稿报3278美元/盎司。上周黄金上涨2.6%。 风险提示及免责条款 据央视新闻， 当地时间11日凌晨1时36分，俄罗斯总统普京在克里姆林宫举行新闻发布会。普京提议于5月15日在土耳其伊斯坦布 尔恢复俄乌直接谈判。普京称将与土耳其总统通话讨论举办俄乌谈判问题。 普京再次强调，俄罗斯愿意在不设置先决条件的情况下与乌克兰进行直接谈判。此前在伊斯坦布尔举行的俄乌谈判破裂原因不在 俄方，虽然战斗行动还在持续，但是俄方愿意与乌克兰恢复此前中断的谈判。 一度推迟的美伊第四轮谈判也正式启动。据央视报道，当地时间11日从伊朗方面获悉，伊朗和美国关于核问题的第四轮谈判当天 在阿曼首都开始举行。' 黄金跳水同时，周一美股期货大幅走高。美股三大股指期货高开逾1%，纳指期货涨1.5%，标普500指数期货涨1.27%。 分析认为，随着贸易和地缘政治紧张局势的缓和，资金可能开始从避险资产流向风险资产，这将对金价构成持续压力。但中央银 行的持续购买和散户的投 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent constructive high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., which are expected to enhance bilateral trade relations and provide stability to the global economy [1][2][3] - The Chinese side, represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng, emphasized the importance of mutual respect and cooperation, stating that the essence of Sino-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit and win-win outcomes [2][3] - Both sides agreed to establish a consultation mechanism to address mutual concerns in the economic field, indicating a commitment to ongoing dialogue and cooperation [2][3] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump hinted at significant developments from the negotiations, suggesting that substantial progress has been made, although specific details were not disclosed immediately [3][4] - U.S. trade representatives expressed optimism about the negotiations, indicating that the differences may not be as significant as previously thought, and substantial groundwork has been laid [4] - Market analysts noted that the easing of trade tensions could boost risk assets, with expectations of a positive market response as participants may re-enter positions following the talks [5][6] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, suggesting potential returns of approximately 7% and 14% respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for Chinese equities [6]