证 券 研 究 报 告 改革深化 融合加速 ——2026年北交所投资策略 证券分析师： 刘靖 A0230512070005 王雨晴 A0230522010003 郑菁华 A0230525060001 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 2025.11.19 主要内容 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 北证四周年，市场近万亿，流动性明显改善，市场功能逐步完善。1）2025年11月15日北证迎来四周年，经过四年发展，北证已逐步融入A股；2）规模：截止 11月14日，北证共有282家上市公司，总市值9008亿，分别相比首日增长248%和212%。北证A股的专精特新"小巨人"数量占比和市值占比为56.7%和57%， 均为全市场最高，北证已聚集一批设备类、材料类、新能源产业链、新能源汽车产业链为代表的优质创新型中小企业；3）流动性：25年日均换手率5.4%，为 全A最高，开户数950万，相比首日增长约1.4倍，吸引了一批公募、社保、保险等机构投资者参与；4）市场功能逐步完善。做市商制度、融资融券制度、并购 重组、再融资等市场功能逐步完善。 ...

行业风格方面，傅静涛展望2026年节奏如下："1.0"阶段已处于高位区域，2026年春季前科技成长至少 还有一波机会，"1.0"至"2.0"的过渡阶段，高股息防御或占优；"2.0"阶段将"周期搭台，成长唱戏"，周 期引领指数突破后，科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升将成主线。三大结构线索值得关注，分别是 复苏交易（基础化工、工业金属等）、科技产业趋势（AI产业链、人形机器人等）和制造业影响力提 升（化工、工程机械等）。 ◎记者 徐蔚 在傅静涛看来，"1.0"阶段可能在2026年春季达到高峰。当前，AI产业趋势还有纵深，但A股AI产业链股 价已处于长期低性价比区域。这神似2014年初的创业板、2018年初的食品饮料和2021年初的新能源。历 史上，通常需经历季度级别的调整，再延续产业趋势行情。 11月18日，申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会举行。申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健在主论坛致开幕辞， 申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟、A股策略首席分析师傅静涛等围绕2026年中国经济与资本市场走势展开深 度解读，提出"向改革要红利""上涨行情两段论"等核心观点，为明年投资方向勾勒清晰蓝图。 对于"2.0"阶段，傅静涛预测2026 ...

人民财讯11月18日电，11月18日，在东方财富证券2026年度策略会上，东方财富证券研究所副所长、首 席策略官陈果发表2026年度策略报告，他提出2026年中国资产重估逻辑将继续演绎，内外资对权益市场 的增配有望共振，国内居民权益类资产配置仍有广阔提升空间，A股新高可期。盈利端，AI产业链景气 度扩散、产能周期筑底及PPI同比回暖有望带动盈利周期延续转暖，"新动能"占比将进一步提升；同时 随着本轮广义去库持续、下半年地产库销比回归历史均值，传统经济链条预期也将迎来逐步改善。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：证券时报 ...

今日市场震荡调整，创业板内部表现分化，光伏、锂电等新能源方向集体下挫，CPO、软件等AI产业链方向相对活跃。截至收盘，创业板成长指数下跌 0.9%，创业板中盘200指数下跌1.1%，创业板指数下跌1.2%。资金"越跌越买"，创业板ETF（159915）今日净申购超3.6亿份，该产品此前两个交易日合计净 流入约10亿元。 每日经济新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is far from over, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global competition is intensifying, necessitating a shift in mindset for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking, which will drive market dynamics [1] - The transition of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, indicating further potential for A-share liquidity improvement [1][2] Group 2: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is anticipated to reach a peak in spring 2026, with a subsequent transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the latter half of 2026 [2] - The second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," is expected to be a comprehensive bull market driven by improvements in fundamental cycles, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence of China [2][3] Group 3: Profit Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 indicate two significant milestones: the first effective rebound in profitability for all A-shares in five years and the first double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in five years [3] - Forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 7% for 2025 and 14% for 2026, with substantial quarterly growth expected [3] Group 4: Sector Trends - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will see high-dividend defensive stocks outperforming, while the latter phase will focus on cyclical recovery and growth sectors [3] - Key structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends with opportunities in AI, and enhanced manufacturing influence [3]

11月17日早盘，A股三大指数小幅下跌，计算机、电子等行业涨幅居前，锂矿、两岸融合、盐湖提锂、 存储器等概念盘中活跃。主流ETF方面，云计算50ETF（516630）涨超1%，持仓股中，东方国信 （300166）、易点天下（301171）、拓维信息（002261）、数据港（603881）、润和软件（300339）、 神州信息（000555）等涨幅居前，其中东方国信一度涨超12%。 港股方面，三大指数悉数下跌。恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数小幅下跌，持仓股中，携程集 团、联想集团、百度集团、比亚迪（002594）电子等领跌，华虹、阿里巴巴、中芯国际等领涨。 华泰证券近期指出，短期不确定性因素仍存，市场走势或仍以震荡为主，但考虑到主线切换较快，配置 向偏均衡的"哑铃型"结构做迁移，具体来看：1）高性价比主线仍是市场关注的方向之一，目前AI产业 链拥挤度回落至7月以来低位，可关注恒生科技、国产算力、AI端侧和应用等方向的低位标的；2）左 侧埋伏部分具备业绩改善的低位板块，如工程机械、纺织制造、光伏设备、通用设备、铁路公路、建 材、及部分大众消费方向；3）海内外不确定性影响下，当前银行和部分周期型红利或仍 ...

当地时间上周五，美股三大指数表现分化，道指与标普500小幅收跌，纳斯达克指数微涨0.13%。科技 股走势不一，英伟达、微软收涨；部分中概股承压下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数显著回落。 美联储结束为期43天的停摆，相关经济数据缺失的局面或将结束，CME预测12月降息概率不足50%，黄 金价格回调，伦敦金现货跌破4100美元/盎司。 市场关注英伟达财报及美联储政策信号，其结果可能影响科技板块情绪。中长期看，AI产业链与中概 股估值修复仍是资金布局主线，但短期需警惕波动风险。 相关ETF： 全球科技龙头：纳斯达克ETF（513300） 美股核心宽基：标普ETF（159655） 跟踪金价表现：黄金ETF（518850） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that short-term uncertainties persist, leading to a market trend characterized by fluctuations. However, there is a shift towards a balanced "barbell" investment structure due to rapid changes in market focus [1] Group 1: Market Focus - The high cost-performance mainline remains one of the market's focal points, with the AI industry chain's congestion level dropping to its lowest since July. Attention is drawn to low-positioned targets in sectors such as Hang Seng Technology, domestic computing power, AI edge applications, and related fields [1] - There are opportunities for left-side positioning in sectors with performance improvement at low levels, including engineering machinery, textile manufacturing, photovoltaic equipment, general equipment, rail and road, building materials, and certain mass consumer sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Given the impact of domestic and international uncertainties, there are still potential investment opportunities in banks and certain cyclical dividend stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant valuation recovery, driven by a global rebalancing of funds towards non-US markets and asset revaluation led by industry narratives [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index has seen a notable decline due to multiple factors, including the strong US dollar impacting emerging market valuations. However, with the weakening dollar and other uncertainties, there is a trend of global funds reallocating towards non-US assets, boosting emerging markets [1]. - As of October 2023, the proportion of overseas active funds allocated to the Chinese market has risen to 7.2%, indicating growing international interest [2]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be around 10.6 times by the end of 2024, with risk premiums at historical highs, suggesting a high safety margin for investors [2]. - Current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are above historical averages by 1.5 to 1.7 standard deviations, indicating potential short-term pullback pressure, but long-term policy clarity and increased foreign capital inflow are expected to support the market [2]. Group 3: Southbound Capital Influence - Southbound capital's pricing power in the Hong Kong market is strengthening, with daily trading volume from this capital reaching approximately 30% of the main board's total, reflecting its growing influence [3]. - Despite recent volatility in the Hong Kong market, the overall outlook remains optimistic for the medium term [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market include: 1. Continued development of the AI industry and improved competition in the internet sector due to "anti-involution" policies, alongside a gradual recovery in certain consumer segments [4]. 2. Strengthening of China's manufacturing advantages and breakthroughs in key technologies, particularly in high-end manufacturing and hard tech sectors [4]. 3. Improved policy environment in the healthcare sector, enhancing competitiveness and growth potential in biopharmaceuticals [4]. 4. Recovery in profit expectations for the chemical and raw materials sectors, making related companies' performance worth monitoring [4]. 5. Potential rotation of capital from high-dividend sectors like telecommunications and utilities towards cyclical and growth assets [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates that over the past two months, the value style has strengthened significantly, with financial, cyclical, and consumer sectors rotating in performance [2][10][11] - The core reason for this style diffusion is attributed to the performance window before year-end, where sectors lack high-frequency quarterly reports to validate performance, leading to volatility driven mainly by valuation and expectations [2][10] - Historical context shows that in the second half of 2014, a liquidity bull market saw a shift from TMT to value, with cyclical and financial sectors performing well, although this trend was short-lived [2][10][18] Group 2 - The report notes that the current style diffusion is still in a phase driven by valuation, expectations, and capital inflow, which is expected to last at least 1-2 quarters [2][10][25] - For the style diffusion to transition into an annual-level market, the profitability logic of value stocks needs to be validated [2][10][25] - The report suggests that in the later stages of the liquidity bull market, the technology sector, which has a stronger long-term industrial logic, may return to prominence before the stabilization of value stock fundamentals [2][10][25] Group 3 - The report highlights that the financial sector is currently undervalued, with a high probability of outperforming as resident capital accelerates inflow [29][34] - The electrical equipment sector is noted for its potential growth, benefiting from investments in the AI industry and improving supply-demand dynamics [29][34] - The cyclical sector, particularly steel and chemicals, is expected to see opportunities due to stabilizing supply policies and potential demand recovery [29][34]