Core Viewpoint - The financial data for June indicates a significant increase in M1 and M2 growth rates, reflecting heightened liquidity and economic activity, primarily driven by government financing and seasonal factors, while consumer confidence remains cautious [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Data - In June, the new social financing scale reached 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9% for the social financing stock, up from 8.7% [1][2]. - M1 growth accelerated from 2.3% in May to 4.6% in June, while M2 increased from 7.9% to 8.3%, indicating improved liquidity and economic activity [1][3]. - The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 3.7% from 5.6% in the previous month, suggesting a more optimistic market outlook and enhanced production and consumption investment intentions [1][3]. Group 2: Financing Data - Government bond issuance remains robust, with net financing of 1.3548 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, contributing to a total issuance of 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 65% of the annual target [2][4]. - Corporate loan demand showed signs of recovery, with new corporate loans in June totaling 1.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a strong seasonal performance [4][5]. - Resident loans increased moderately, with short-term loans rising due to seasonal consumption patterns, but overall performance remains weak compared to historical averages [5].

Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing may face pressure in the second half of the year. If there is no additional budget, government bonds will shift from year - on - year increase in the first half to year - on - year decrease in the second half, and non - government bond social financing has been weak due to high real interest rates [2][3][20]. - The low - base effect supports the continued significant rebound of M1 growth rate, and the rebound of social financing growth rate drives the rebound of M2 growth rate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in fiscal deposits [3][4]. - The current stock market rise requires a low - interest - rate environment, and the impact on the bond market from capital flow is limited. The bond market has limited adjustment space, and it is a better allocation opportunity after adjustment. It is expected that bond yields will decline again, and a long - duration position and a dumbbell - shaped allocation are recommended [5][21]. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In June, new credit was 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 110 billion yuan. Corporate short - term credit demand increased, while the improvement of household credit demand was still limited. Corporate medium - and long - term loans and short - term loans increased year - on - year, and bill financing decreased year - on - year. Household medium - and long - term and short - term loans also increased year - on - year, but high - frequency data showed weak real - estate sales [1][8]. Social Financing Situation - In June, new social financing was 4.1993 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9008 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Government bonds were still the main support item. However, if there is no additional budget, subsequent bond supply will decrease year - on - year, and social financing growth rate may decline [2][13]. - In the first half of this year, the increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. The annual budget increment of government bonds is 13.86 trillion yuan. After deducting the issued part in the first half, the net financing scale in the second half is expected to be about 6.1 trillion yuan, compared with about 8 trillion yuan in the same period last year [3][20]. M1 and M2 Situation - In June, the new - caliber M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a rebound of 2.3 percentage points from May, mainly due to the low - base effect last year [3][15]. - In June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, a rebound of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The increase in social financing growth rate promoted the rebound of M2 growth rate. With the slowdown of government bond issuance in the second half, fiscal deposits may decrease year - on - year, increasing the capital supply in the market [4][18]. Stock and Bond Market Situation - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly driven by valuation recovery and requires a low - interest - rate environment. The impact of the stock market on the bond market's capital is limited. The bond market has limited adjustment space, and it is expected that bond yields will decline again. A long - duration position and a dumbbell - shaped allocation are recommended, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield expected to fall to 1.4% - 1.5% [5][21].

Group 1 - Government bonds are the main driver of social financing growth, with a cumulative increase of 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - Net financing of government bonds reached 7.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, while domestic stock financing for non-financial enterprises was 170.7 billion yuan, up 49.3 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The issuance of government bonds has significantly increased compared to last year, with the issuance pace in the first half of the year being about 10 to 15 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year as of the end of June, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, largely influenced by a low base effect from last year [1] - The low base effect from last year, where M2 growth was only 6.2%, is expected to gradually diminish, leading to a reasonable growth rate for financial totals in the second half of the year [2] - The financial sector is expected to continue providing strong support for the real economy, with reasonable growth in loans and targeted support for key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, green finance, and inclusive finance [2]

【大河财立方 记者 杨萨】7月14日，央行发布2025年上半年金融统计数据报告。总体上看，6月新增信 贷和新增社融均实现同比多增，好于市场预期。 数据显示，2025年6月新增人民币贷款2.24万亿元，同比多增1100亿元；6月新增社会融资规模为41993 亿元，同比多增9008亿元；6月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.4个百分点；狭 义货币（M1）同比增长4.6%，增速较上月末高2.3个百分点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，5月降息降准落地，6月央行持续实施中期流动性净投放，企业和居 民融资成本下行，信贷可获得性改善，加之政府债券处于发行高峰期，拉动社融数据走高。另外，当月 票据冲量现象明显缓解，企业短贷同比大幅多增，信贷结构也有所改善。 6月末人民币各项贷款同比增长7.1% 中国人民银行调查统计司司长闫先东在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，央行实施好适度宽松的货 币政策，强化逆周期调节，运用多种货币政策工具组合，服务实体经济高质量发展。信贷总量保持平稳 增长。 上半年，人民币各项贷款新增12.92万亿元。6月末，金融机构人民币各项贷款余额为268.56万亿元，同 比增长7.1% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The economic negative cycle of "housing price slump, stock market slump - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has ended. Despite unfavorable factors such as the weak real - estate market, the economy is expected to stabilize. The interest - rate bonds may have a narrow - range and phased oscillation, and there is a positive view on long - duration credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. It is recommended to conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds by closely monitoring the capital situation and defend once the capital tightens. Since early June, there has been a continuous positive view on long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, and strong recommendations have been made for long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng. Attention should also be paid to investment opportunities in Hong Kong - listed bank stocks and China Property Insurance's capital - supplementing bonds [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial Data in June 2025 - On the afternoon of July 14, the central bank disclosed the financial data for June 2025: new loans reached 2.24 trillion yuan, and social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan. At the end of June, M2 reached 330.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year; and the social financing growth rate was 8.9% [1]. 2. New Loans in June 2025 - New loans in June increased slightly year - on - year, which may be related to banks' efforts to boost credit scale. Generally, April and May in the second quarter are off - peak months for credit delivery, while June is a peak month. The credit data in the first half of the year was affected by the replacement of implicit debts. The low stock mortgage interest rate and the stable stock market alleviated the pressure of early mortgage repayment. However, the significant reduction in deposit interest rates may exacerbate the pressure of early mortgage repayment. In June, individual loans increased by 59.76 billion yuan, including a 26.21 - billion - yuan increase in short - term individual loans and a 33.53 - billion - yuan increase in medium - and long - term individual loans, with a slight year - on - year increase. In June, short - term corporate loans increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, medium - and long - term corporate loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 410.9 billion yuan. Due to issues such as low capacity utilization in the manufacturing industry, weak real - estate investment, and limited infrastructure investment space, credit demand may be weak in the long term. After banks boosted credit scale in June, new loans in July are expected to be low [3]. 3. M2 and M1 Growth Rates in June 2025 - Both the M2 and M1 growth rates rebounded in June. Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes individual current deposits and non - bank payment institution customer reserves on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of June 2025, the balance of the new - caliber M1 reached 113.95 trillion yuan. In recent years, the year - on - year growth rate trends of the old and new M1 calibers have been similar, but the new - caliber M1 growth rate trend is more stable. In June, the new - caliber M1 growth rate was 4.6%, a 2.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the growth rates of both the old and new M1 calibers have significantly rebounded, indicating an improvement in economic activity. In June, the M2 growth rate was 8.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [3]. 4. Social Financing in June 2025 - Social financing increased significantly year - on - year in June. The social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9 trillion yuan. The increase mainly came from government bonds and credit. In June, the increment of RMB loans to the real economy was 2.36 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.17 trillion yuan; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 190 billion yuan; the net corporate bond financing was 241.3 billion yuan; and the net government bond financing was 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5 trillion yuan. At the end of June, the social financing growth rate was 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of the previous month and 0.9 percentage points from the beginning of the year. Looking forward to 2025, it is expected that new loans will increase slightly year - on - year, the net government bond financing will expand significantly year - on - year, social financing will increase significantly year - on - year, the social financing growth rate may first rise and then fall, and the social financing growth rate at the end of the year may reach around 8.3% [3].

Loan and Credit Growth - In June, new loans reached 2.24 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion RMB, consistent with seasonal high growth patterns[3] - The total new loans for Q2 2025 amounted to 3.14 trillion RMB, with a monthly average year-on-year decrease of 223.3 billion RMB[3] - New corporate medium- and long-term loans surged by 1.01 trillion RMB in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 400 billion RMB, indicating the importance of infrastructure investment for growth stabilization[3] Social Financing and Government Debt - New social financing in June hit 4.2 trillion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion RMB[4] - The issuance of new government bonds in June reached 1.35 trillion RMB, up by 507.2 billion RMB year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth[4] - The total new government debt for the first half of the year was 7.66 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.32 trillion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Market Trends - M2 growth rebounded to 8.3% year-on-year in June, a 0.4 percentage point increase, reaching a 16-month high[5] - In June, household and corporate deposits increased by 330 billion RMB and 777.3 billion RMB year-on-year, respectively, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 340 billion RMB[5] - The M1 growth rate jumped to 4.6% year-on-year, a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points, marking the highest level since June 2023[5] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights a structural divergence between credit and social financing, with the need for further observation on whether the trend will improve[5] - Potential upward pressure on the RMB due to a stabilizing US dollar index may impose new constraints on monetary easing policies[5] - The effectiveness of monetary easing policies may be weaker than expected, posing a risk to economic recovery[6]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for the first half of 2025 indicates a solid growth in social financing and loans, reflecting the effectiveness of monetary policy in supporting the real economy [2][6]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Growth - As of the end of June, the cumulative increase in social financing reached 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1]. - The new RMB loans amounted to 12.92 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of nearly 2.24 trillion yuan in June [1][6]. - The stock of social financing grew by 8.9% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.3% [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to utilize both total and structural monetary policy tools to support the economy, focusing on technology innovation and consumption [2][7]. - The PBOC has implemented 12 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 9 interest rate reductions since 2020, leading to a significant decrease in loan market rates [8]. - The current monetary policy is described as "moderately loose," with financial growth rates outpacing economic growth [9][12]. Group 3: Government Bonds and Financing - Government bond net financing was a major driver of social financing growth, with a cumulative net financing of 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with the pace of issuance in 2023 outpacing that of the previous year by approximately 10 to 15 percentage points [3]. Group 4: Loan Composition and Economic Activity - Corporate loans accounted for 89.5% of the total new loans, with a significant increase in medium to long-term loans, indicating stable financial support for the real economy [6]. - Household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing support for individual businesses and small enterprises [6]. - Seasonal consumer demand, particularly during promotional events like "618," has contributed to the increase in credit demand [6].

目前货币政策的状态是"适度宽松"的，金融总量指标增速明显快于经济增速。 7月14日，央行公布2025年上半年金融数据。总体来看，金融总量保持合理增长，主要指标增速略有回 升，支持实体经济力度稳固。 数据显示，今年上半年，广义货币（M2）增速明显加快，社会融资规模增速保持较高水平。6月末， M2余额330.29万亿元，同比增长8.3%，比上月高0.4个百分点，比上年同期高2.1个百分点；狭义货币 （M1）余额113.95万亿元，同比增长4.6%，比上月高2.3个百分点。 社会融资规模方面，存量430.22万亿元，同比增长8.9%，比上月高0.2个百分点，比上年同期高0.8个百 分点；6月份，社会融资规模增量为4.20万亿元，同比多增9008亿元；上半年，社会融资规模增量为 22.83万亿元，同比多增4.74万亿元。 政府债券净融资是主力 从上半年数据来看，社会融资规模增长加快，适度宽松的货币政策效果正在显现。 数据显示，6月份，社会融资规模增量为4.20万亿元，同比多增9008亿元。上半年，社会融资规模增量 为22.83万亿元，同比多增4.74万亿元，其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加12.74万亿元，同比多 ...

7月14日，中国人民银行发布的2025年上半年金融数据显示，6月末社会融资规模增量累计为22.83万亿 元，比上年同期多4.74万亿元；新增人民币贷款为12.92万亿元。6月份，社会融资规模增量近4.2万亿 元，新增人民币贷款近2.24万亿元。 6月末，社会融资规模存量同比增长8.9%，广义货币供应量（M2）同比增长8.3%，人民币贷款余额同 比增长7.1%。若还原地方政府专项债券置换地方融资平台贷款的影响，人民币贷款同比增速按可比口 径将更高。总体来看，金融总量保持合理增长，主要指标增速略有回升，支持实体经济力度稳固。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在当天的国新办新闻发布会上表示，从上半年的金融数据看，货币政策支持实 体经济的效果是比较明显的。央行将发挥好货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，结构性货币政策工具 将继续坚持"聚焦重点、合理适度、有进有退"的原则，在支持金融"五篇大文章"基础上，突出支持科技 创新、提振消费等主线，进一步提升对促进经济结构调整、转型升级、新旧动能转换的效能。 低基数效应助M2增速回升 6月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.3%，比上月上升0.4个百分点；反映资金活化程度的狭义货币 （M1）同 ...