Report Date - The report is dated October 13, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Steel - The current overseas macro - environment is under pressure. Whether the Sino - US trade negotiation can ease will be the core factor affecting asset prices. The overall situation is bearish, and asset prices may face pressure. With the weakening of steel fundamentals and the weakening support of iron ore, steel prices are more likely to decline. Short - term macro - level changes will have a higher impact than fundamental changes, and market volatility may increase [3] Iron Ore - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are under marginal pressure. Shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, downstream hot metal has support, but steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, still oscillating within a range [22] Coal and Coke - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, and the second round of coke price increase is difficult. In the medium - to - long term, under the policy constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection", the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which will support coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of the downstream steel can achieve a "soft landing" [34] Ferroalloys - There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand in ferroalloys. The production of ferrosilicon remains high, while the production of silicomanganese has declined for many weeks. The cost support is challenged due to the continuous decline of coking coal prices [53] Soda Ash - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. The second - phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and is in the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The inventory of upstream alkali plants is starting to accumulate. The overall high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches restricts the price of soda ash, but there is limited downward space due to cost support [64] Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November. Glass production and sales are average, and the upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some glass production lines still have the intention to ignite. The high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price increase [89] Summary by Directory Steel Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3083, 3139, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3261, 3274, and 3437 yuan/ton respectively [4] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3237 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton [8] Basis and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 137 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 182 yuan/ton [8][14] Iron Ore Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 yuan/ton respectively [23] Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 14024.5 tons, and the global iron ore shipment volume was 3207.5 tons [28] Coal and Coke Futures Prices and Basis - On October 13, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 38.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1583 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 83.1 yuan/ton [39] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1530 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [40] Ferroalloys Ferrosilicon - On October 13, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5230 yuan/ton [54] Silicomanganese - On October 13, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, and the silicomanganese spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [56] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1336, 1406, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton [65] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [68] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1313, 1392, and 1179 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton [89] Production and Sales - On October 10, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 61%, in Hubei was 82%, in East China was 82%, and in South China was 100% [90]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a shift from rising to falling after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 1% and falling below 3900 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.52 trillion, a decrease of 137.6 billion from the previous trading day [1] - Sector performance was mixed, with construction materials, coal, and textiles leading in gains, while electronics, power equipment, computers, and non-ferrous metals saw significant declines [1] Macro Analysis - The impact of recent Sino-U.S. trade tensions on the market is expected to be weaker than in April, due to more precise and effective countermeasures from China, including actions related to rare earths and lithium batteries [2][3] - Previous trade negotiations have yielded some results, and recent technological advancements in China's semiconductor and emerging tech sectors strengthen its negotiating position [2] - Economic data from the U.S. is showing signs of marginal deterioration, while China's economic structure is showing positive changes, with improved profit margins for industrial enterprises and stabilization in PPI year-on-year data [2][3] Investment Strategy - The focus remains on technology growth as a core investment theme, with potential short-term trading opportunities in rare earths and precious metals [4][5] - The upcoming political meetings and policy announcements in October are expected to provide favorable conditions for investment, despite potential short-term market fluctuations [4] - Long-term prospects for the stock market are optimistic, supported by declining risk-free interest rates, improved liquidity, and better earnings expectations [4][5] Sector Focus - The acceleration of AI innovation and domestic production is expected to lead to a new capital expenditure cycle, particularly in sectors like internet, electronic semiconductors, defense, and robotics [5] - The financial sector, after adjustments, is showing improved dividend returns and stable value, with attention on brokerage and insurance stocks [5] - The shift in economic governance is likely to correct previously overvalued deflation expectations, making cyclical commodities like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and new energy more attractive [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in October and predicts that the domestic policy rate may be cut by 10 - 20BP in Q4 [4][13][92] Report's Core View - The consumption volume increased while the price rose slowly during the National Day holiday, and the per - capita data was under pressure, indicating a relatively low domestic consumption willingness and a continuous consumption downgrade trend. The external environment is disturbed, with rising policy risks and uncertainties [2][10][11] - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is fully bullish on the bond market, with the preferred investments being 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [4][13][92] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, the number of domestic tourist trips reached 890 million, an increase of 120 million compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The total domestic tourism consumption was 809.01 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase. The per - capita consumption decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 911 yuan. The number of inbound and outbound trips of mainland residents was 9.165 million, a 9.6% increase [14] - On October 1, 2025 (EDT), the U.S. federal government announced a "shutdown". On October 10 (EDT), Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting from November 1, 2025. As of October 11 (09:30 Beijing time), the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October reached 98.3% [21] - In September 2025, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49.1% (continuing in the contraction range, up 0.4pct from the previous month), and the service PMI dropped to the critical point of 50.0% (down 2.0pct from the previous month) [21] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of September 30, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 42.8% and 57.3% year - on - year respectively. The total box office during the National Day in 2025 was 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 900 million and 270 million yuan compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively. As of September 26, the total retail volume and sales of three major household appliances decreased by 16.9% and 27.6% year - on - year respectively [22][24] 2.2 Transportation - As of October 5, the weekly container throughput of ports increased by 12.0% year - on - year, the postal express pick - up volume increased by 4.5% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 12.4% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 9.7% year - on - year. As of October 10, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days decreased by 7.4% year - on - year [28][36][39] 2.3开工率 - As of October 9, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 2.2pct year - on - year, the asphalt average operating rate increased by 3.0pct year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 2.9pct year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 2.2pct year - on - year. As of October 11, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 75.1% [44][47] 2.4 Real Estate - As of October 10, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 34.7% year - on - year. As of October 3, the second - hand housing transaction area of 9 sample cities increased by 104.2% year - on - year [51][54] 2.5 Prices - As of October 11, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 24.1% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.0% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. As of October 10, the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 14.6% year - on - year, the average spot price of rebar decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, and the average spot price of iron ore decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [58][60][66] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On October 11, overnight Shibor and various short - term interest rates generally declined. Most treasury bond yields declined, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bond yields at 1.37%/1.58%/1.82%/2.23% respectively, down 1.2BP/4.3BP/5.6BP/up 1.5BP compared to September 28. The yields of China Development Bank bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit also showed certain changes. As of October 10, the ten - year treasury bond yields of the U.S., Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.7%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, down 15BP/up 3BP/down 7BP/down 7BP compared to September 26. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on October 10 decreased by 70/21 pips compared to September 25 [69][73][80] 4. Institutional Behavior - As of October 10, the estimated median durations of medium - and long - term interest rate and credit bond funds were about 4.5 years and 2.6 years respectively, down about 0.03 years and 0.3 years compared to September 26 [4][86][87] 5. Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks will reach 1.9% [4][13][92]

格隆汇10月13日｜据澎湃，10月13日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。法新社记者提问，美国总统 特朗普10日表示，美国将从11月1日起对中国商品加征100%关税。他表示，此举是为了报复中国最近宣 布的稀土出口管制措施。外交部对此有何评论？如果美方关税最终实施，中国是否计划对来自美国的商 品征收高额关税？ （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com "中国商务部的发言人已经就此阐明了中方的立场。"林剑强调，近一段时间来，美方持续出台一系列对 华限制和制裁措施，严重损害中方利益。中方对此坚决反对，美方不仅没有反躬自省，反而以高关税相 威胁，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式。 林剑重申，中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，在平等、尊重和互惠基 础上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。"如果美方一 意孤行，中方也必将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticizes the U.S. for imposing high tariffs and not reflecting on its actions, stating that this approach is not the correct way to engage with China [1][3]. Group 1 - The U.S. plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to China's export controls on rare earths and related items [1]. - The Chinese government firmly opposes the series of restrictions and sanctions imposed by the U.S., which it claims severely harm China's interests [3]. - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous actions and resolve concerns through dialogue based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit, aiming to maintain stable and healthy development of Sino-U.S. relations [3].

据北京日报，10月13日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 法新社记者提问，美国总统特朗普表示，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，美国将对中方加征100%关税。中方对此有何评论？中方对于从 美进口的商品是否会征收新的关税？ 林剑表示，商务部发言人已就此阐明了中方的立场。"我要强调的是，近一段时间来，美方持续出台一系列对华限制和制裁措施，严重损害中方利 益。中方对此坚决反对。" 林剑说，美方不仅没有反躬自省，反而以高关税相威胁，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要 共识为引领，在平等、尊重和互惠基础上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。 林剑指出，如果美方一意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government strongly opposes the recent announcement by the U.S. to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, in response to China's export controls on rare earths and related items [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. has been continuously implementing a series of restrictions and sanctions against China, which severely harm Chinese interests [1]. - The Chinese government emphasizes that the U.S. should not threaten with high tariffs and should instead engage in dialogue to resolve concerns based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1]. Group 2: Response and Future Actions - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and to manage differences properly to maintain stable, healthy, and sustainable development of U.S.-China relations [1]. - If the U.S. persists in its unilateral actions, China will take corresponding measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests [1].

本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：徐世明 有记者提问：美国总统特朗普表示，美国将从11月1日起对中国商品加征100%关税。他表示，此举是为 了报复中国最近宣布的稀土出口管制措施。外交部对此有何评论？如果美方最终加征关税，中国是否计 划对来自美国的商品征收高额关税？ 林剑：中国商务部发言人已经就此阐明了中方立场。近一段时间来，美方持续出台一系列对华限制和制 裁措施，严重损害中方利益。中方对此坚决反对，美方不仅没有反躬自省，反而以高关税相威胁，这不 是同中方打交道的正确方式。 中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，在平等、尊重和互惠基础上，通过 对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤行，中方 也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。(完) 美方威胁将会从11月1日起对华商品加征100%关税 外交部回应 中新网北京10月13 ...

les & FR 点击下载中国基金报客户端 外交部发言人林剑主持10月13日例行记者会。会上法新社记者提问称：特朗普当地时间10日表 示，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，美国将会从11月1日起对中国商品加征100%关 税，中方对此有何评论？中方对自美进口商品是否会征收新的关税？ 林剑对此表示，中国商务部发言人已经就此阐明了中方的立场。我要强调，近一段时间来，美方 持续出台一系列对华限制和制裁措施，严重损害中方利益。中方对此坚决反对。 林剑称， 美方不仅没有反躬自省，反而以高关税相威胁，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式。 中 方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，在平等尊重和互惠基础上，通 过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤 行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 来源：中国新闻网 ■ 中国基金报内容矩阵 ■ 巅峰对话 投资热点说 ETF风向标 IPO情报站 fe o 1 ■ a a - 444 and 4 4 CHINAFUND CHINAFUND CHINAFUND CHINAFUND 开盘速递 港股日报 全球早班车 数说人 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the U.S. is not reflecting on its actions but instead threatening China with high tariffs, which is not the correct way to engage with China [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has firmly opposed the series of restrictions and sanctions imposed by the U.S., which severely harm China's interests [1] - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and resolve concerns through dialogue based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit, to maintain stable and healthy development of Sino-U.S. relations [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that if the U.S. continues its unilateral actions, China will take resolute measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [1]