Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2024/25 sugar production season has ended successfully. As of the end of May, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable precipitation in Guangxi and Yunnan benefits sugarcane growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is also improving. Globally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited impact from Brazil's drought, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1] - Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in China's cotton - growing areas since sowing are suitable for cotton growth. Most cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is at the fifth true leaf to squaring stage. The development period of most cotton is 3 to 15 days earlier than in previous years. Weather's impact on yield per unit needs continuous attention [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - **External Market Quotes**: On June 14 - 15, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $67.9, also with a 0.00% change [3] - **Spot Prices**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning dropped from 6035.0 to 6020.0, a - 0.25% change; in Kunming, it dropped from 5855.0 to 5835.0, a - 0.34% change. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.07% change, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 14700.0 to 14800.0, a 0.68% change [3] - **Spreads**: All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton futures contracts from June 14 - 15, 2025, remained unchanged, with a 0.00% change [3] Import Price, Profit, and Other Data - **Import Price**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA dropped from 78.05 to 77.8, a - 0.32% change [3] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1638.0 from June 12 - 13, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5700 was 0.0843, and the historical volatility of SR509 was 8.94; the implied volatility of SR509P5700 was 0.0829. The implied volatility of CF509C13400 was 0.097, and the historical volatility of CF509 was 12.67; the implied volatility of CF509P13400 was 0.0959 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 29116.0 to 28736.0, a - 1.31% change; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10769.0 to 10753.0, a - 0.15% change [3]

国内 商品期货多数收涨， 原油、燃料油涨超7%，液化气、 甲醇涨超4%，苯乙烯、沥青、对二甲苯、 PTA涨超3%，瓶片、鸡蛋、短纤涨超2%，塑料、沪金、棕榈油、菜籽油涨超1%，跌幅方面，纯碱、烧 碱跌超2%，工业硅、氧化铝、碳酸锂、玻璃跌超1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of gold and crude oil due to escalating geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for traders to identify opportunities in commodity futures [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions have led to a significant increase in the prices of both gold and crude oil [1] - The article suggests that traders can benefit from understanding order flow, volume-price distribution, and practical case studies related to capital movements in the futures market [1] Group 2: Trading Opportunities - A seasoned futures researcher, Leo, will provide insights into popular commodity trends and teach participants how to capture trading opportunities effectively [1] - The live session aims to equip traders with tools and strategies to navigate the current market conditions [1]

国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一 原油涨超3% 智通财经6月12日电，国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一，原油涨超3%，燃料油涨超2%，沥青、菜粕、沪 铝、沪金涨超1%，跌幅方面，焦煤、纯碱跌超2%，橡胶、纸浆、焦炭、锰硅、尿素、碳酸锂、玻璃、 沪镍跌超1%。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices have rebounded for the fourth consecutive trading day, leading the market with a 2.23% increase on June 11 [2] - The supply of industrial silicon remains slightly loose compared to demand, with expectations of inventory reduction in June [2] - Some multi-crystalline silicon companies have announced production increases, driven by improved demand expectations [2] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices have shown a strengthening trend, with the main contract rising by 1.68% due to cost support [3] - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price reached 60,704 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from the previous period [3] - Despite recent price rebounds, the fundamental situation for lithium carbonate has not significantly improved, with expectations of inventory accumulation [3] Group 3: Palm Oil - Palm oil futures fell over 2% on June 11, closing at 7,970 yuan/ton, due to high supply pressures from South Asia [4] - Malaysia's palm oil production increased to 1.7716 million tons in May, up 5.05% from April, contributing to rising inventory levels [4] - Domestic palm oil inventories have also risen significantly, exceeding the five-year average [4] Group 4: Shipping Industry - The European shipping index has declined over 2%, struggling to maintain the 2000-point support level [5] - Initial optimism regarding shipping rates due to U.S.-China trade easing has not materialized, leading to a continued weak performance in the European shipping market [5] - Future developments in European shipping rates and negotiations related to electric vehicle pricing are being closely monitored [5]

Group 1 - The main contract for industrial silicon increased by over 2% [1] - Lithium carbonate, coke, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai zinc, and coking coal all rose by more than 1% [1] - Palm oil and shipping indices in Europe fell by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Timber, urea, manganese silicon, and asphalt all experienced declines of over 1% [1]

2025年06月11日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.23%，收于 19980 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 325 元/吨， | | | | | LME 价格 2476.5 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：氧化铝价格下行，利润向电解铝端转移，供应或维持高负荷生产，而下游消费处于淡季，部分板 | | | | | 块开工率持续下滑。但低库存提供下方支撑，预计价格维持震荡走势。 | | | | | 操作建议：观望。 | | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.21%，收于 2886 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 367 元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，复产产能和新增产能持续释放，运行产能增加。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产， | ...

截至10日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1358.52点，较前一交易日上涨1.48点，涨幅0.11%；中 证商品期货指数收报1881.07点，较前一交易日上涨2.05点，涨幅0.11%。 铸造铝合金首日上市大涨苯乙烯涨超2% 新华财经北京6月10日电 6月10日，铸造铝合金涨超4%，苯乙烯涨超2%，一号大豆、高硫燃料油、红 枣、20号胶、SC原油、玉米淀粉、沪胶、玉米、生猪、菜粕涨超1%；不锈钢、沪锌、尿素、沪镍跌超 1%。 沪锌昨日增仓下挫，主力合约跌破22000元的短期支撑。据一德期货分析，基本面方面，二季度海外矿 山已基本恢复生产节奏，海关数据显示锌矿进口依旧较为强劲，6月国产锌矿加工费继续上调。前期检 修炼厂逐步恢复，6月产量增加明显，从后续冶炼厂检修排产来看，预计7月产量延续高位。消费端，中 美关税达成90天豁免期，国内不少出口企业开始继续补库。但整体消费开始边际下滑，随着南方地区梅 雨季节来临，户外施工项目或受到一定影响，相关终端订单预计继续走弱。前期沪伦比值攀升锌锭进口 窗口开启，随着进口锌流入一定程度补充国内供给，6月锌锭库存仍有累库预期。 （文章来源：新华财经） 尿素期货跌至近半年低点沪 ...

智通财经6月10日电，国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一，铝合金涨超4%，苯乙烯涨超2%，红枣、豆一、20 号胶、原油、生猪涨超1%，跌幅方面，不锈钢、沪锌、尿素、沪镍跌超1%。 国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一 铝合金涨超4% ...

商品期货开盘，铝合金主力合约上市首日涨超5%，沪银、苯乙烯、原油涨超1%。焦煤、集运欧线跌超 2%，纯碱、焦炭跌超1%。 ...