土耳其央行：流动性状况将继续受到密切监控。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in the context of a weakening US dollar cycle and its implications for various sectors and policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The weakening of the US dollar is becoming evident, influenced by multiple factors including the expanding US fiscal deficit, which is projected to worsen to 7% by 2026. This trend is expected to positively impact the A-share market [1][2]. 2. **A-share Market Performance**: Historically, during weak dollar periods, the A-share market has shown strong performance, particularly in consumer sectors, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and finance [1][4]. 3. **New Policy Cycle**: Since September 2024, several favorable policies have been introduced, including guidelines for medium- and long-term funding and new regulations for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to support financial asset prices [1][5]. 4. **Global Liquidity Impact**: The global liquidity easing cycle has a significant effect on the A-share market. The period from 2019 to 2021 saw a bull market driven by global liquidity, while a shift to negative liquidity in 2022 led to a bear market [1][6]. 5. **Current Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The European Central Bank has also been aggressive in its rate cuts, while the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit [1][7]. 6. **Foreign Investment Sentiment**: There has been a notable shift in foreign investment sentiment from bearish to bullish regarding Chinese assets, driven by confidence in China's fiscal and monetary policies and the rise of Chinese technological hard assets [1][3][8][9]. 7. **Market Expectations and Catalysts**: The market is currently facing pessimistic expectations regarding export demand and economic deflation. However, potential positive influences include structural fiscal policies and a possible resolution of the US-China trade conflict [1][10][11]. 8. **Market Trends and Performance**: The A-share market is expected to experience a period of volatility followed by upward movement, supported by the weak dollar trend, policy support, and overall liquidity improvement [1][12]. 9. **Key Catalysts for Market Breakthrough**: For the market to break through current resistance levels, key catalysts such as unexpected improvements in global fundamentals, domestic policy implementation, and breakthroughs in emerging industries are necessary [1][13]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with a projected annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years. A strategic allocation of 60% in equity assets is recommended [1][14][15]. 11. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas for the second half of the year include artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the rise of new consumer trends [1][16]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations, as it could significantly impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3][11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 如何看待微盘新高 ——再通胀牛市系列 4 摘要：小微盘行情更多受流动性驱使，基本面并非主要定价因素。从资金结构 来看，小微盘大股东以个人为主，居民超储释放，散户是主要增量资金，小微 盘或更为受益。叠加行业属性偏向制造+科技的成长风格，在通胀尚未回归， 市场缺乏趋势性主线的背景下，小微盘主题行情或持续占优。可能的风险点一 方面来自通胀回归带来风格切换，当前或仍需等待；另一方面来自交易热度触 顶后可能出现短暂回调。 微盘持续新高，重申再通胀牛市上半场小盘成长占优 华创策略 24/10/27《剩余流动性盛宴》提出货币先行而财政和基本面改善滞后， 剩余流动性扩张下小盘成长占优。24/11/19 年度策略《再通胀牛市》明确牛市 上半场是金融再通胀，权益资产在流动性宽松环境下估值抬升，小盘成长率先 占优。今年以来我们坚定维持对小盘成长的看好，25/4/13《布局黄金坑》强调 小盘成长风格有望受益于更快落地的货币宽松，5 月央行降准降息落地。今年 以来微盘表现强势，截至 6/10，微盘股指数今年累计涨幅 30%，显著跑赢万得 全 A 的 3%，当前我们继续维持年度策略观点，再通胀牛市上 ...

中信建投指出，下半年确定性的弱美元趋势、资本市场政策支持和流动性环境整体性改善， 有望推动A股震荡中枢持续上移，全球基本面超预期改善、国内增量政策落地和新兴产业发展 则有望成为市场向上的关键催化。 本期编辑 刘雪莹 A股或迎创新药企上市潮 事关A股！吴清最新宣布 央行8项金融政策，释放哪些新信号？ SFC 21君荐读 板块方面，能源设备、石油天然气行业指数逆市走强。 6月19日午后，指数持续走弱，截至14:41，上证指数跌超0.9%，深证成指、创业板指、北证 50指数均跌超1%，全市共4751只个股下跌。 来 源 | 2 1财经客户端综合自2 1投资情报、Wi n d 近期市场波动加大，国泰海通证券认为，回调后风险逐步释放，市场仍或区间震荡，配置继 续两端走。配置上维持哑铃策略，大盘配置红利价值等高质量资产，小盘配置科技量化等交 易型资产。 ...

能源化工板块成交7019.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+9.54%；持仓金额3987.64亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.29%；成 交持仓比为125.68%。 农产品板块成交3055.32亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.47%；持仓金额5695.42亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.42%；成交 持仓比为49.05%。 流动性日报 | 2025-06-19 市场流动性概况 2025-06-18，股指板块成交4861.01亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.57%；持仓金额9652.31亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.94%；成交持仓比为50.10%。 国债板块成交2368.33亿元，较上一交易日变动-32.82%；持仓金额8671.80亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.02%；成交持 仓比为27.55%。 基本金属板块成交1871.40亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.42%；持仓金额3903.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.38%；成 交持仓比为68.55%。 贵金属板块成交4165.63亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.87%；持仓金额4687.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.24%；成交 持仓比为110.74%。 黑色建材板块成交1814.20 ...

瑞士央行金融稳定报告：重要的是加强银行自身流动性缓冲，要求银行通过补充措施改善其流动性状 况。 ...

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为6578亿、1078亿和1755亿，净融资额为2621 亿、-430亿和736亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模2368亿，净融资额1667亿。非金信用债共计 发行规模3076亿，净融资额1068亿。可转债新券发行3只，预计融资规模21亿元。 债市策略展望 二级市场回顾 海外市场 美国CPI/PPI表现均不及预期，显示关税对通胀冲击尚未完全显现，市场对美联储降息预期上升。10年 期美债收盘在4.41%，较前周下行10BP。 权益市场 上周A股宽基指数大多小幅下跌。具体而言，万得全A下跌0.27%，万得微盘股指数下跌0.07%，沪深 300收跌0.25%，科创50下跌1.89%。A股成交放量，日均成交额1.37万亿，周度日均成交量增加1628.23 亿。截至2025年6月12日，全A融资余额18089.79 亿，较6月5日增加94.60亿。 上周债市震荡中小幅走强。主要影响因素包括：资金面、央行买断式逆回购公告、中美伦敦磋商、以伊 冲突等。 流动性跟踪 上周，OMO净回笼，临近税期，资金前松后紧，周五央行提前公告新一轮6月期买断 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. banking regulators are preparing to adjust the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (eSLR) for the largest banks, potentially lowering capital requirements from 5% to a range of 3.5%-4.5% [1][2] - The proposed changes are similar to the adjustments sought by the Trump administration in 2018, aimed at tailoring eSLR calculations for globally systemically important banks [1] - Some experts express skepticism about the effectiveness of this policy, raising concerns that it may exacerbate systemic risks rather than effectively address issues in the Treasury market [1][3] Group 2 - The proposal focuses on changing the overall ratio rather than excluding specific assets like Treasuries, which some observers had anticipated [2] - Federal Reserve officials, including Jerome Powell, have expressed long-standing concerns about the liquidity levels in the Treasury market [2] - Adjusting the eSLR could potentially lower Treasury yields by several basis points, according to estimates from Treasury Secretary Yellen [3] Group 3 - The banking industry has protested that the current SLR rules require large lending institutions to hold capital against their Treasury investments, limiting their ability to increase these holdings during market volatility [3] - Historical context shows that when Treasuries were temporarily excluded from leverage ratios during the COVID crisis, most banks opted not to utilize this exclusion due to restrictions on dividend payments and stock buybacks [3] - Experts suggest that more targeted solutions are needed to address Treasury market issues, indicating that the proposed deregulation may weaken the financial system [3]

Group 1 - The book "The Power of Money" by Paul Sheard discusses various aspects of money, including its creation, government debt concerns, destructive effects of money, and the potential of cryptocurrencies to disrupt existing monetary systems [2][4][24] - Sheard emphasizes the common misunderstandings and controversies surrounding money, suggesting that many people's perceptions are flawed and need clarification [2][5] - The relationship between the real economy and the monetary economy is complex, with money being essential for economic health, contrary to the traditional view that money is neutral [4][10] Group 2 - Money is fundamentally a social construct, gaining value through collective acceptance, and modern money is fiat currency, backed by government trust rather than physical commodities [5][7] - Central banks play a crucial role in money issuance, typically using commercial banks as intermediaries to inject money into the economy [7][8] - Government debt, primarily in the form of national bonds, is often misunderstood; unlike personal or corporate debt, government debt can be sustained due to the government's long-term existence and creditworthiness [10][12] Group 3 - The destructive potential of money is highlighted, particularly in the context of financial crises, where liquidity can vanish suddenly, leading to severe economic impacts [15][16] - The concept of liquidity is multifaceted, affecting how assets are traded and the stability of financial markets, especially during crises [16][17] - The U.S. dollar remains the dominant international currency, but its status is being challenged by geopolitical factors and the U.S. government's actions, leading to discussions about alternative currencies [22][23] Group 4 - Cryptocurrencies, while not yet a serious challenge to sovereign currencies, are gaining attention for their potential to disrupt traditional monetary systems and prompt central banks to innovate [24][26] - The emergence of cryptocurrencies has led to a reevaluation of payment systems and monetary policy, as they present both opportunities and risks for central banks [26][27] - The book provides a broad analysis of money, acknowledging that the discussion around it is vast and complex, with many dimensions yet to be explored [27]

Core Insights - The report by CITIC Securities highlights the changing dynamics of global stock markets, indicating a shift from a "single core" investment strategy to a "regional diversification" approach, particularly in developed markets [3] - In emerging markets, there is a notable concentration in Asia, with China, India, and Taiwan collectively accounting for over 66% of the market [3] Market Structure - In developed markets, the weight of the US remains high at 71.46%, but has decreased, while Japan, France, and other developed markets are gaining weight [3] - The technology sector continues to dominate the global market, with information technology and finance accounting for over 42% in developed markets [3] - Emerging markets show a rise in technology and stable finance sectors, while resource sectors maintain relative strength [3] Regional Characteristics - China focuses on technology and manufacturing, showing high capital concentration and increasing capital attractiveness [3] - India's market structure is balanced with active consumption, finance, and industry sectors, benefiting from domestic demand and demographic advantages [3] - Japan's market is characterized by industrial and consumer discretionary sectors, reflecting traditional manufacturing strengths [3] - Hong Kong and Singapore maintain their status as financial centers, with telecommunications and finance leading in market capitalization and trading [3] - Australia continues to exhibit resource-oriented characteristics, while Southeast Asia's market structure is fragmented and less active, indicating a developing capital market [3] Valuation Levels - Global stock market valuations are generally rising, with significant differentiation at the industry level [4] - The US market shows high valuations and strong profitability, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 PE ratios exceeding 25 and 33, respectively, and ROE above 18% [4] - European markets have moderate valuations, with Germany's DAX high but limited profitability, while UK and French markets exhibit lower valuations and earnings [4] - Asian markets show significant valuation and profitability disparities, with South Korea being attractively valued but with weak earnings, while India sees a valuation decline [4] - The technology sector shows notable valuation differences, with Germany at historical highs and South Korea undervalued; the financial sector in the US and Australia is highly valued, while some Southeast Asian markets are significantly undervalued [4]