1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 20, the central bank guided the LPR to decline synchronously through policy rate cuts, which will drive down the loan costs of enterprises and residents and reduce the financing costs of the real economy. Meanwhile, state - owned big banks and some joint - stock banks lowered deposit rates, with the current deposit rate of state - owned big banks falling below 0.1% and the 1 - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1%. Driven by liquidity, small - cap stocks were active, and the stock index showed a strong oscillation. In the short term, the market may enter a shock consolidation phase, and short - term long positions should consider taking profits on rallies and beware of adjustment risks [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.52%, down 2.07bp; DR007 at 1.59%, down 1.57bp; GC001 at 1.52%, up 3.00bp; GC007 at 1.62%, up 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.64%, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, down 10.00bp; 1 - year treasury at 1.44%, up 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.54%, up 1.10bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, up 1.20bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.46%, up 3.00bp [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 430 billion yuan of repurchase maturing, the net investment on the day was 920 billion yuan [3] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.54% to 3898.2; the SSE 50 rose 0.43% to 2716.6; the CSI 500 rose 0.46% to 5747.4; the CSI 1000 rose 0.83% to 6146. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 100 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with jewelry, household light industry, and other sectors leading the gains, while the shipping port sector fell sharply [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For IF, the closing price of the current - month contract was 3862, up 0.6%, with a trading volume of 72250 (up 4.0%) and an open interest of 237717 (up 1.2%); for IH, the current - month contract closed at 2699, up 0.4%, with a trading volume of 37208 (up 2.2%) and an open interest of 78851 (up 2.3%); for IC, the current - month contract closed at 5621, up 0.5%, with a trading volume of 67678 (down 9.4%) and an open interest of 199111 (down 2.3%); for IM, the current - month contract closed at 6019, up 0.7%, with a trading volume of 173350 (down 9.7%) and an open interest of 309017 (down 2.7%) [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF's current - month contract premium was 9.90%, IH's was 7.47%, IC's was 19.78%, and IM's was 24.26% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide liquidity as needed, emphasizing the importance of minimizing moral hazard [1] Group 1 - The readiness of the Federal Reserve to offer liquidity is crucial for maintaining market stability [1] - Efforts must be made to reduce moral hazard associated with providing liquidity [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, construction, real estate, and industrial products, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics. Group 1: Liquidity and Financing Environment - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in April 2025 is -6.5 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of -1.10 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for April 2025 is 48.03, down -7.24% from the previous month [3] - There is a strong positive correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate difference and the Shanghai Composite Index [3] Group 2: Construction and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices have rebounded from an 8-month low, with a weekly increase of +1.59% [3] - The national steel PMI new orders index for April 2025 is 51%, an increase of +9.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Cement price index decreased by -1.45%, while rubber prices increased by +3.09% [3] Group 3: Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a high level, recorded at 78.33%, an increase of +19.98 percentage points [4] - Major commodity prices show varied performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by +0.33%, +0.57%, and +3.48% respectively [4] Group 4: Price Trends of Specific Products - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached the highest level since 2011, while alumina and electrolytic aluminum prices have hit recent highs [5] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,230 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of +3.48% [5] - The price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 18,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 5: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in April 2025 is 44.70%, a decrease of -4.3 percentage points [7] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is 1,104.88 points, down -0.14% from the previous week [8] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 77.50%, an increase of +0.70 percentage points [8] Group 6: Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by +1.12%, with the shipping sector performing best at +6.87% [8] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [8]

银行角度看 4 月社融：政府债保持高增，透支与预期影响贷款 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 17 日 评级： 增持（维持） | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | 江苏银行 | 10.73 | 1.69 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 2.03 | 2.15 | 6.35 | 6.50 | 5.62 | 5.29 | 4.98 | 买入 | | | 渝农商行 | 7.27 | 0.94 | 0.99 | 1.07 ...

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - The liquidity environment has shown unexpected convergence due to multiple cash return pressures, with significant fluctuations observed from May 12-16, 2025[1] - Initial phase saw a continuation of loose liquidity with rates declining, while the latter phase faced multiple cash return pressures leading to a marginal tightening[1] - On May 16, overnight rates surged by over 20 basis points, with R001 and DR001 rising to 1.65% and 1.63% respectively[1][11] Group 2: Market Outlook - The likelihood of a return to the tight liquidity conditions of Q1 2025 is low, with a stable rate around 1.5% expected before the central bank resumes bond purchases[2] - The fundamental economic conditions do not support restrictive policies, as the central bank aims to stabilize economic growth and social stability[2] - Since mid-April, the external constraints on monetary policy from exchange rates have weakened, allowing for more flexibility[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - From May 12-16, the central bank conducted a net cash withdrawal of CNY 475.1 billion, with reverse repos totaling CNY 486 billion and MLF maturities of CNY 125 billion[3] - Upcoming reverse repos maturing from May 19-23 amount to CNY 486 billion, with additional treasury deposits planned[3] Group 4: Government Bonds and Bills - The net payment pressure for government bonds has decreased to CNY 397.9 billion, down from CNY 715.8 billion the previous week[5][31] - The planned issuance of government bonds from May 19-23 is CNY 764.5 billion, slightly lower than the previous week's CNY 787.7 billion[5][31] Group 5: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit fell significantly to 1.64%, a decrease of 6 basis points from the previous week[6] - The upcoming maturity of interbank certificates of deposit is CNY 746 billion, an increase from CNY 593.9 billion the prior week, indicating rising maturity pressure[6][51]

【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间5月15日，美债收益率全线走低，2年期美债收益率跌7.95BPs报3.963%，3年期 美债收益率跌9.23BPs报3.951%，5年期美债收益率跌10.6BPs报4.056%，10年期美债收益率跌10.08BPs 报4.434%，30年期美债收益率跌8.09BPs报4.89%。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率全线回落，10年期日债收益率下行2.5BPs至1.455%，3年期和5年期日债收益 率分别走低2BPs和1.7BP。 新华财经北京5月16日电（王菁）债市周五（5月16日）小幅走弱，海外债市抛售情绪稍有蔓延，期限券 亦受稳增长预期扰动，日内同步回调，银行间现券收益率普遍回升1-2BPs，国债期货全线收跌；公开市 场单日净投放295亿元，临近税期资金利率多数转为上行。 机构认为，当前市场主体有效融资需求尚有提升空间，金融体系负债扩张速度或将继续高于资产扩张速 度，债券配置需求或将继续支撑交易，收益率曲线或陡峭化下移。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.10%报118.910，10年期主力合约跌0.05%报108.480，5年 期主力合约跌0.06%报1 ...

双降&中美经贸会谈后的债市展望 20250515 摘要 • 传统流动性指标失效，个人投资者资金分布成关键因素。今年理财扩张规 模或相对一般，对应市场为小牛市。央行主导长端利率下行风险缓解，可 关注 5 到 7 年凸性交易机会。 • 中期来看经济下行和低通胀未结束，利率下行趋势未破坏。信用债投资首 要任务是保持流动性，可适当下沉或拉长久期，关注高流动性溢价品种， 谨慎对待低流动性品种。 今年债券市场的核心主线是什么？ 今年债券市场的核心主线是流动性与预期差。预期差既包括基本面的息差，也 包括资金面的预期差。这方面会给证券市场持续带来扰动。我们整体认为今年 的债券市场是一个震荡偏强的市场，预计十年国债运行区间为 1.6 到 1.9，相 对去年利率单边下行，今年可能会有一些波动往复。 对于基本面和流动性的具体判断是什么？ 对于基本面，今年最重要的是关注是否已经见底，而不是好转。过去几年，大 家一直预期基本面单边下行，这与地产下行周期匹配。今年一季度讨论剧烈， 认为地产周期是否见底，但二季度随着逻辑被证伪，大家回到偏下行方向。目 前市场对于基本面的预期大于实际结果，即使关税政策对基本面有长期负面影 响或短期正面刺激， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - After the release of the pricing optimization initiative, the pressure on inter - bank liabilities has significantly increased, with current deposits flowing out and time deposits remaining relatively stable. Money market funds need to address the issue of interest loss caused by the adjustment of time deposits exceeding the "restricted assets" [1][12]. - In April 2025, due to tariff upgrades, the central level of funds stepped down. The central bank's open - market operations were flexible, and the overall operation of funds was stable. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate was implemented, exceeding market expectations [4][71]. - In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio will offset the potential disturbances of fiscal factors to the capital market, and the pressure on the capital gap will be significantly alleviated. In the future, the capital price may continue to run slightly higher than the policy interest rate [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 How to Respond to the Reduction of Early - Withdrawal Pricing for Money Market Funds? 3.1.1 Inter - bank Deposit Changes: Current Deposits Flow Out, Time Deposits Remain Relatively Stable - After the release of the pricing optimization initiative in November 2024, except for the increase in February driven by the transfer of current deposits to time deposits, inter - bank deposits have flowed out significantly in other months, and the pressure on inter - bank liabilities has increased. From December 2024 to March 2025, inter - bank deposits decreased by 3.3 trillion yuan [12]. - In terms of term structure, current deposits have flowed out significantly, while time deposits have remained relatively stable. The outflow of inter - bank deposits is mainly concentrated in large - scale banks, which is consistent with the distribution of current deposits. By comparing the first and second halves of 2024, the current deposits of important money market funds decreased from 4719 billion yuan to 1528 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 70%, while time deposits decreased from 7234 billion yuan to 6818 billion yuan, a decrease of only 6% [13]. 3.1.2 How Large is the Scale of Time Deposits of Money Market Funds Exceeding "Restricted Assets"? - The proportion of time deposits in the net asset value of important money market funds at the end of 2024 was about 30%. Based on the total net asset value of all money market funds in the first quarter of 2025, which was 13.3 trillion yuan, the scale of inter - bank time deposits was about 4 trillion yuan [19]. - With a 10% upper limit for restricted assets, the upper limit for inter - bank time deposits of money market funds with a maturity of more than 10 trading days is about 1.3 trillion yuan. In an extreme scenario, 2.7 trillion yuan of the 4 - trillion - yuan inter - bank time deposits need to be adjusted [19]. 3.1.3 How Do Money Market Funds Respond? - Response 1: Using the fund risk reserve to compensate for part of the interest loss from early - withdrawal. The lower limit of the fund company's risk reserve is about 320 billion yuan. The interest loss of 2.7 trillion yuan of early - withdrawal time deposits is about 37.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 12% of the risk reserve. However, due to the complex process, it can only cover a small part of the early - withdrawal deposits [20][22]. - Response 2: Rolling over 14 - day inter - bank time deposits. Since the beginning of this year, the term spread of inter - bank deposits with a maturity of less than 14 days has significantly narrowed. Generalized fund products may prefer short - term products with a maturity of less than 14 days [26]. 3.2 Review of the April Capital Market and Liquidity: Tariff Upgrades, Central Level of Funds Steps Down 3.2.1 Capital Market Review: The Fluctuation Range of Funds Widens - In April 2025, due to trade frictions, the central level of funds stepped down to 1.6 - 1.7%. The fluctuation ranges of overnight and 7 - day weighted prices increased compared with March. The spread between 7 - day and overnight funds was mostly around 5bp, with two days of inversion [28]. - In terms of capital operation, the central bank's open - market operations were flexible. In the early stage of the tariff conflict, the capital constraint was relaxed, and the central level of DR007 stepped down. In the middle and late stages, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase operations to hedge against disturbances, and the capital operation was generally stable. At the end of the month, the DR007 price slightly decreased and broke through 1.7% [33]. - In terms of capital stratification, the pressure on stratification was not significant in April, and the spread narrowed. The spread between R007 and DR007 and the spread between GC007 and DR007 both decreased [38]. 3.2.2 Liquidity Review: Limited Disturbances from Gaps, the Central Bank Increases Support, and the Capital Market Continues to Recover - Liquidity Aggregate: In April, the excess reserve level was low, with an excess reserve rate of about 1.0% and a narrow - sense excess reserve level of about 0.45% after deducting reverse - repurchases, which is a seasonally low level. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points may increase the excess reserve rate by 0.5 percentage points, and the excess reserve level may return to the seasonal level [56]. - Open - Market Operations: In April, the central bank's open - market operations continued to increase. The reverse - repurchase balance first decreased and then increased. The MLF was over - renewed, with a net investment of 500 billion yuan, and the net investment of MLF was equal to the net withdrawal of outright reverse - repurchases. The outright reverse - repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 500 billion yuan [59][65][67]. 3.3 April Monetary Policy Tracking: The Goal of "Stabilizing Growth" Takes Precedence, and Double Reductions are Implemented in May - In April 2025, the central bank focused more on "stabilizing growth" on the basis of the "moderately loose" policy tone, and the central level of funds stepped down. In May, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate was implemented, exceeding market expectations [71]. - After the tariff upgrade in early April, the central bank supported Huijin Company to increase its holdings of stock ETFs and provided sufficient re - loans. In the middle and late April, the central bank's OMO changed from net withdrawal to net investment to hedge against various disturbances. At the end of April, the MLF was over - renewed, and the Politburo meeting continued the "moderately loose" tone. On May 7, the central bank announced the simultaneous implementation of the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate [71][74]. 3.4 May Gap Prediction: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio is Implemented, and the Capital Expectation is Eased 3.4.1 Rigid Gap: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio Releases Excess Reserves, and it is a Big Month for the Maturity of Outright Reverse - Repurchases - In May, as it is a small month for general deposits, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points may release nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of excess reserves. The maturity scale of MLF is 125 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of outright reverse - repurchases is 900 billion yuan [78]. 3.4.2 Exogenous Shocks: The Impact of Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits on Excess Reserves is Small - In May, cash inflows may supplement about 60 billion yuan, and non - financial institution deposits may slightly supplement about 12 billion yuan of excess reserves [81]. 3.4.3 Fiscal Factors: The Issuance of Government Bonds Accelerates, and the Tax Payment Scale is Relatively Large - In May, the net financing scale of government bonds may rise to about 1.68 trillion yuan, and the tax payment scale is relatively large. The reduction of the reserve requirement ratio in May will release more than one trillion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity, and the payment and tax payment are mainly short - term capital disturbances, so the capital expectation may tend to ease [85]. 3.4.4 Comprehensive Judgment: The Reduction of the Reserve Requirement Ratio Stabilizes the Disturbances from Payments, and the Capital Expectation is Eased - Overall, the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio in May will release nearly 1.4 trillion yuan of liquidity, and cash inflows and non - financial institution deposits will slightly supplement liquidity. The maturity of 900 billion yuan of outright reverse - repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF requires attention to the central bank's hedging tools. The absorption of liquidity by government deposits may be about 600 billion yuan. After the implementation of the double - reduction policy, the capital expectation has been significantly eased, and in the future, the capital price may continue to run slightly higher than the policy interest rate [89][94].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369 points, with a daily increase of 0.82% and a monthly increase of 2.75% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2004 points, with a daily increase of 1.7% and a monthly increase of 4.62% [1] - The large-cap index showed a 1.15% increase yesterday, while the mid-cap and small-cap indices increased by 1.37% and 1.45% respectively [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The maritime equipment sector saw a daily increase of 7.08% and a monthly increase of 10.86% [1] - The military electronics sector increased by 5.21% daily and 7.66% monthly [1] - The precious metals sector experienced a decline of 2.03% yesterday and a decrease of 0.87% over the month [1] Group 3: Company Insights - Mixue Group - Mixue Group is the leading fresh beverage company in China, with a market share of 20.2% based on retail sales in 2023, making it the largest in the fresh tea beverage sector [4][16] - The company operates 46,479 stores globally, covering 11 countries, and is the only major player focused on the affordable price segment [16] - The market for fresh beverages in China reached 517.5 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 22.2% from 2023 to 2028 [16][17] Group 4: Company Insights - SMIC - SMIC reported a revenue of 2.247 billion USD for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.4% [19] - The overall utilization rate for Q1 was 89.6%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.1 percentage points [19] - The company expects a slight decrease in revenue guidance for Q2 due to production fluctuations, maintaining high capital expenditures [19]

Group 1 - The central government has emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announcing a series of measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [2][5] - The PBOC's recent report indicates that monetary policy will continue to support the economy, focusing on implementation and effectiveness evaluation [2][5] - The report highlights the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments due to external uncertainties affecting exports, particularly from U.S. tariff policies [3][4] Group 2 - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to support fiscal policy, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds [4] - The PBOC aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market to support these fiscal measures, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [6][7] - The report outlines specific policy tools to support sectors such as technology finance, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in new funding [7] Group 3 - The PBOC is maintaining a focus on the stability of the financial markets, particularly in the context of recent fluctuations in the international financial markets due to U.S. trade policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, reflecting concerns over banks' net interest margins [5][9] - The PBOC's assessment of government debt sustainability indicates that China's fiscal policy still has room for expansion, supporting the notion of continued monetary easing [10] Group 4 - The report expands its focus to include various economic indicators, such as the evolution of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and the sustainability of government debt, reflecting a comprehensive approach to monetary policy [9][10] - The PBOC acknowledges the current low inflation environment and the need for policies that stimulate effective demand while managing supply-side constraints [10][11] - The overall strategy involves deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policy measures to achieve a balance between supply and demand, while fostering a conducive environment for reasonable price recovery [11]