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【广发宏观郭磊】穿越减速带,布局新均衡:2025年中期宏观环境展望
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-07-04 06:30
Group 1 - The recent overseas economy can be understood as a combination of "fiscal expansion dividends" and "de-globalization costs," leading to a relatively mild global economic "slowdown zone" in the short term, with limited risks of rapid changes in growth trends [1][6][30] - The optimal strategy for the Chinese economy is to focus on internal growth dynamics to enhance risk resistance, with broad-based growth characteristics improving macroeconomic stability and asset price stability [2][8][37] - The effectiveness of domestic policies initiated in the last quarter of the previous year peaked in the first half of this year, with signs of economic slowdown emerging by the end of the second quarter [3][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure construction rates are a key variable to observe, with recent performance in materials like asphalt and cement indicating weaker financing compared to narrow infrastructure growth, suggesting a need for local government investment to accelerate [4][11][12] - The necessity to optimize supply has significantly increased due to slowing exports, with "anti-involution" policies expected to improve supply-demand ratios in key industries [5][13][14] - The framework suggests that during periods of actual growth in the "slowdown zone," it is advisable to reduce configurations based on win rates and increase those based on odds, focusing on high dividend, low volatility sectors [6][15][16] Group 3 - The supply-demand ratio is crucial for determining whether the fundamentals can improve, with recent years showing a trend of imbalance leading to lower price centers and higher real interest rates [7][16][17] - Improving the supply-demand ratio requires achieving rebalancing across three sectors: local government investment normalization, rationalization of incremental investments through anti-involution, and stabilizing household balance sheets [8][18][56] - The global competition hinges on who can provide growth certainty, with the U.S. focusing on permanent tariffs and tax cuts, while China leverages its strong supply chain and large market space [9][19][20] Group 4 - The mid-term impact on major asset classes includes the regionalization of global supply chains and the weakening of U.S. dollar credit, affecting commodities, gold, and alternative assets [21][22] - The framework may overlook risks such as uncertainties in external trade relations and geopolitical issues, which could complicate the impact on major asset classes [22][22]
比亚迪巴西工厂迎首车下线!
鑫椤锂电· 2025-07-04 06:26
关注公众号,点击公众号主页右上角" ··· ",设置星标 "⭐" ,关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 自2021年新能源乘用车进入巴西市场以来,比亚迪产品已赢得超过13万巴西家庭的青睐。今年第一季 度,比亚迪在巴西销量突破2万台,成为当地新能源汽车销量冠军。5月,比亚迪在巴西汽车品牌零售销量 排行中跃升第四,市占率达9.7%。 近年来,比亚迪积极拓展海外产业布局。截至目前,比亚迪新能源足迹已遍布六大洲、全球110多个国家 和地区。 上半年比亚迪海外销售超47万辆,同比增长132%,预计2025年全年海外销售将超过80万辆。 2025(第三届)中国固态电池 技 术 发 展 与 市 场 展 望 高 峰 论 坛 -广告- 本文来源:企业公告 当地时间7月1日, 比亚迪在巴西巴伊亚州卡马萨里举行巴西乘用车工厂首车下线仪式, 从破土动工到首 车下线仅仅用了15个月,将比亚迪全球化战略带入新的阶段。 比亚迪巴西乘用车工厂选址于萨尔瓦多大都市圈内的卡马萨里市。该市不仅是巴伊亚州重要的工业、经济 中心,更拥有完善的汽车产业链配套和成熟的港口物流基础设施。2023年7月,比亚迪宣布在此建设由三 座工厂组成的大型生产基地综合体,总投资额达 ...
宝企立讯精密发文拟赴港IPO,创始人刚刚获评《财富》2025中国最具影响力商界女性
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 05:24
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Luxshare Precision is planning to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and prepare for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and financing capabilities [1][4] - Luxshare Precision, founded in 2004, has evolved from a traditional OEM focused on computer connectors to a leading player in the electronic precision manufacturing sector, now serving major clients like Apple [4][6] - As of July 3, Luxshare Precision's stock price was 35.77 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 259.4 billion yuan [4] Group 2 - In 2024, Luxshare Precision reported a revenue of 268.795 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.91%, with 83.37% of this revenue coming from the consumer electronics sector [6] - The founder of Luxshare Precision, Wang Laichun, was ranked first in Fortune's list of the most influential businesswomen in China for 2025, marking her third consecutive year in this position [6]
锦江酒店递表港交所,加速全球化布局
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-07-04 04:06
Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotel Co., Ltd. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first hotel group in China to achieve a dual listing in both A-shares and H-shares [1] Group 1: Company Overview - As of December 31, 2024, Jin Jiang Hotel operates 13,416 hotels with a total of 1.29 million rooms, covering a full range of hotel categories from economy to high-end [1] - The IPO proceeds will primarily focus on expanding and optimizing overseas operations, including new hotel openings, renovations, service quality improvements, and IT infrastructure upgrades [1] Group 2: Overseas Expansion - Jin Jiang Hotel began its overseas expansion in 2015 with the acquisition of the Louvre Hotels Group in France, followed by the inclusion of the Plateno Group and Radisson Hotel Group, expanding its footprint to Europe, Asia, Africa, and America [2] - By the end of 2024, Jin Jiang Hotel has established 1,171 hotels abroad, with 773 located in France, 128 in other European countries, and 270 in Asia (excluding China), Africa, and America [2] - The RevPAR for overseas limited-service hotels is projected to reach 112.27% of 2019 levels in 2024, reflecting a 0.35% increase from 2023 [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Strategy - Jin Jiang Hotel anticipates revenue of 14.3 billion to 15 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 7%, with a 5% to 10% increase expected in mainland China [2] - The company plans to open 1,300 new hotels and sign contracts for 2,000 hotels in 2025, implementing a differentiated expansion strategy based on the "12+3+1" framework [2] Group 4: Infrastructure and Market Growth - Jin Jiang Hotel is actively improving infrastructure to boost hotel business growth in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa through new hotel openings and renovations [3] - The company is targeting high-growth markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, with plans for rapid expansion through both organic growth and strategic acquisitions [3] - The partnership with Malaysian hotel management group RIYAZ marks a significant step in Jin Jiang's Southeast Asia strategy, with plans to introduce multiple brands into the region [3]
亿滋亚洲中东非大区供应链高级副总裁张凝芳:打造全球化的平台需“本土创新加整合”
麦肯锡· 2025-07-04 03:00
亿滋国际旗下的奥利奥、趣多多、闲趣、怡口莲、吉百利等都是中国消费者耳熟能详的标志性品牌。作 为全球领先的零食制造商,亿滋目前拥有三家灯塔工厂,分别位于中国苏州和北京、 印度斯里城。其中,坐落在苏州的工厂和研发中心已成为亿滋在亚洲、中东和非洲地区烘焙相关制品的 研发和生产中心,它还是全球零食饼干行业第一家"端到端灯塔工厂"。 不久前,麦肯锡全球董事合伙人 侯文皓 与亿滋亚洲、中东和非洲大区供应链高级副总裁 张凝芳 女士就 全球化与本土化、中企出海需修"耐心课"、灯塔工厂的榜样、AI和试错、员工培养的方法论、女性领导 力等话题展开了深入对话。 以下为编辑后的访谈实录。 全球化的平台,是品牌的平台,也是技术和人才的平台 侯文皓:从供应链的角度,您怎么看待供应链全球化和本土化的关系? 张凝芳: 在全球化和本土化上面,我们要找到一个更好的平衡。全球化的平台,是本土的创新加整 合。首先我需要去贴近本土的消费者,贴近本土的消费环境,贴近本土的生态,但是我又不能忘记 作为一个全球公司是有一些优势,是可以为本土所用的。我们在讲本土的创新和整合的时候,更多 是在讲供应链的设置和供应链的解决方案需要满足本土消费者和本土客户的需求, ...
高工锂电15周年策划|星源材质陈秀峰:攻克隔膜核心技术 从进口替代到全球引领
高工锂电· 2025-07-04 02:50
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant evolution of China's power battery industry over the past 15 years, marking its transition from inception to a global leader, and anticipates new challenges and opportunities in the next 15 years, particularly in globalization and technological innovation [2][4]. Summary by Sections 15-Year Journey of the Industry - The power battery industry in China has grown from a nascent stage in 2010 to a robust sector, becoming a representative of China's manufacturing prowess and a symbol of economic transformation [2]. - The industry is expected to face new challenges and opportunities as it enters a new phase starting in 2025, with a focus on electric transportation, energy system transformation, and the emergence of new applications and business models [2][4]. High工锂电's Role - High工锂电 has been a witness and chronicler of the power battery industry's growth over the past 15 years, providing insights through research reports, publications, and industry events [4]. - In 2025, High工锂电 will celebrate its 15th anniversary with a series of activities themed "激荡15年 瞭望新征程," reflecting on past achievements and looking forward to future challenges and opportunities [4][5]. Planned Activities - The activities will include research visits, video interviews, in-depth reports, and an industry celebration from March to December 2025 [5]. - Key topics for discussion will include the successes and failures of the past 15 years, new technologies, application scenarios, and business models for the future [10][11]. Industry Development Overview - The article outlines the evolution of the Chinese lithium battery industry through three phases: the nascent period (2010-2015), the explosive growth period (2016-2020), and the globalization leadership period (2021-2025), highlighting key technological and commercial breakthroughs [12]. - It emphasizes the changes in the core industry chain of batteries, equipment, and materials, along with a retrospective on key enterprises and the top 10 companies in various segments [12][13]. Future Outlook - The focus for the next 15 years will be on technological advancements such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries, as well as full-scene applications including energy storage and eVTOL [13]. - The globalization strategy will involve establishing overseas factories and technology exports, marking a significant shift in the industry's operational landscape [13]. Anniversary Celebration - The 15th anniversary celebration will take place during the 2025 High工锂电 annual meeting, inviting over 1,000 industry representatives to reflect on the past and discuss future opportunities and challenges [15]. - The event will feature discussions on new batteries, technologies, application opportunities, and innovations in business models, along with a special focus on emerging enterprises [16].
2025年中国电竞行业研究报告
艾瑞咨询· 2025-07-04 02:31
市场发展: 2024年中国电竞市场规模约为 1790亿元 ,同比增长5.5%,电竞产业展现出稳健的发展态 势。同时,2024年中国电竞用户规模约为 5.11亿人 ,用户规模基本稳定在较高水平。 电竞行业丨研究报告 核心摘要: 行业动态: 国际化 进程加速、 标准化 体系建设、 多元化 生态拓展和 全民化 共同参与是中国电竞行业当 下发展的核心动态,这些动态的相互作用,将共同推动中国电竞市场的不断壮大和持续繁荣。 用户特征: 一方面,电竞用户从年轻人群向 更广泛的年龄层 逐步渗透;另一方面,电竞用户普遍认为电竞 对生活有着较为重要的意义,并对电竞行业的未来发展前景持有积极、乐观的态度。 发展趋势: 中国电竞行业在未来发展中将呈现出产业 全球化 、注重 长期价值 、商业模式 多元化 以及 适 老化 等趋势,这些趋势有望推动电竞产业实现新的突破,成为推动经济发展和社会进步的新引擎。 中国电竞行业发展历程 电竞体育化持续推进,电竞奥运会有望推动电竞产业进入成熟发展的新阶段 | 探索期:1998-2008 | 发展期: 2009-2013 | 爆发期:2014-2022 | 成熟期:2023- | | --- | -- ...
立讯精密冲刺A+H上市加码全球化 果链三巨头市值4628亿或会师港股
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-07-04 02:25
Core Viewpoint - The "fruit chain" giants, including Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, and GoerTek, are planning to list in Hong Kong to enhance their global strategy and reduce reliance on major clients like Apple [2][4][9]. Group 1: Company Listings - Luxshare Precision announced its plan to list in Hong Kong, following Lens Technology and GoerTek, which are already ahead in the listing process [2][4]. - As of July 3, the combined market capitalization of the three companies is approximately 462.8 billion yuan [2]. - Lens Technology is set to become the first among the three to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 9 [7]. Group 2: Strategic Goals - The primary goals for the three companies include deepening global strategic layouts and enhancing overseas financing capabilities [2][4]. - Each company aims to diversify their operations and reduce dependence on major clients, particularly Apple [11][13]. - Luxshare Precision has been closely tied to Apple, supplying various components and recently entering the iPhone supply chain [5][13]. Group 3: Market Context - The recent trend of companies listing in Hong Kong is supported by favorable policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which encourages leading domestic enterprises to utilize both A-share and H-share markets [9][10]. - The Hong Kong market has shown signs of recovery, with narrowing valuation gaps between H-shares and A-shares [10].
欧洲理事会前主席范龙佩呼吁各方对话:关税战没有赢家 | 世界观
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-04 01:55
中新网北京7月4日电(张东方薛凌桥林勐男)7月2日至4日,第十三届世界和平论坛在北京举行。3日,欧 洲理事会前主席、比利时前首相赫尔曼·范龙佩(Herman Van Rompuy)在出席该论坛时表示,关税战会打 击国与国之间的信任,其结果是人人皆输。他呼吁各方对话,回归现实主义。 本届论坛以"共促世界和平与繁荣:共担、共享、共赢"为主题,探讨如何通过加强国际合作、共同承担 维护和平、促进发展的责任,共享全球化带来的机遇,最终实现世界各国的共同繁荣和持久和平。 范龙佩说,关税战会打击国与国之间的互相信任。"尤其是,关税战并非基于理性的经济考量。因为, 这既不符合本国利益,也无益于全球经济。" 在他看来,关税战注定以失败告终,但在此过程中将造成极大破坏,各国不应给已经动荡不安的局势再 添不稳定因素,民众理应免受不公平贸易行为的伤害。 范龙佩认为,维护或重建信任离不开双边和多边对话。即使存在深刻分歧,对话仍至关重要。"在政治 条件允许的情况下,只要对话从未中断,重建紧密联系就会更加容易。" 他还提及中欧贸易关系,并对即将举行的新一次欧中领导人会晤表达了期待。 7月3日,欧洲理事会前主席、比利时前首相赫尔曼·范龙佩( ...
2025中国二手车大会成功召开,有辆科技作为官方合作伙伴助推行业增量发展
Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang· 2025-07-04 01:28
Core Insights - The 2025 China Used Car Conference, themed "Integrity Wins the Future," was held in Chongqing, focusing on policy benefits, the transition to new energy, and innovative development paths in the used car industry [1] - From January to May 2025, China's used car transaction volume reached 7.91 million units, with a total transaction value of 516.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.62% [3] - The used car industry faces challenges such as fragmented channels, information asymmetry, and insufficient service standardization, which hinder healthy development [3] Company Developments - Youliang Technology has rapidly developed over the past two years, with a monthly transaction volume exceeding 9,000 units and an expected annual transaction volume of over 100,000 units [4] - The company has launched several AI-driven products and services, including the PowerBid auction system, to enhance industry productivity and reduce cross-regional circulation costs [4] - Youliang Technology has established deep partnerships with leading manufacturers and dealer groups, focusing on refined operations and driving business upgrades through standardized technology [6] Market Trends - The used car export market is showing significant potential, with 2.83 million vehicles exported from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [7] - The company is actively sharing its internationalization strategy and working with industry partners to develop China's used car inspection and evaluation standards [7] - AI technology is being utilized to empower used car dealers throughout the entire business process, helping them navigate challenges in a competitive market [6]