文 ｜ 杨帆 玛西高娃 ▍ 我国对美出口贸易在省际层面呈现出东部集中、区域分化和集群支撑的三重特征 。 第一，我国对美出口高度集中于东部沿海省份，2 0 2 3年以来前五大省份贡献了7 2 . 3%的出口额，前八大省份合计贡献8 4 . 9%，其中广东和浙江 出口动能更为强劲，两者分别贡献了2 5 . 1%和1 6 . 6%。不过前五大外贸大省在面对关税2 . 0的表现，出现了分化，山东和浙江可能抢出口诉求更 强，上海和广东略靠后。出口交货值视角也基本印证上述结论，当前上海在出口交货值增速上较为疲弱。 我国分省市对美出口整体呈现出东部集中、区域分化和产业集群支撑的三重特征。其中，广东和浙江等东部沿海省份是出口主力，山西和河南等 中部省份对美出口依赖偏高。同时结合商品结构层面，我国各省市对美出口贸易呈现商品出口中心度较高、总体依赖度不高且结构多元的特征。 第一，从出口中心度来看，机电设备、纺织鞋服和家具类是支撑出口的核心品类，不同省份在这些品类上的中心度高低差异明显。第二，从对美 出口依赖度来看，大部分省市总体依赖度不高，大部分省份在主要品类上的依赖度低于5%，另外，沿海地区整体呈现出产业链多元、出口商品 类别 ...

"年初的时候，我们还在和客商沟通解决方案，等到4月大幅增加关税后，与美国市场的合作几乎停 滞。"公司内销部负责人穆龙生告诉记者，那段时间时不时要拿出手机，刷新最新关税动态。同时，自 己和团队主动出击，把焦虑转化为动力，"全员出差、寻找客户。" 4月7日，永辉超市发布《致中国优质供应链的一封信》，为出口受阻的中国优质供应链搭建起内销 转型的桥梁。对于华腾公司来说，是个好机会。 "看到永辉超市的公开信，我们主动联系并进行几个小时的商谈，把上架时间缩短到一周。"穆龙生 表示，第一轮供货全国20个永辉超市门店，上架的是华腾旗下自有品牌"佰仕洁"牙刷、牙线，并将包 装、宣传物料等调整为中文，目前专区产品购买率很高。 "我们打开国际市场的优势是'物美价廉'。现在转为内销，综合各方面成本，给国内消费者提供的 产品远低于国外名牌的价格，但品质和国外名牌相当。"穆龙生表示，除了转战内销渠道，企业也在积 极拓展新兴市场，已接到巴西500多万元的订单，生产线开始正常有序运转。 有了永辉超市的雪中送炭，也有其他国货伙伴抛来"橄榄枝"，穆龙生深刻体会到互相扶持、患难与 共的情谊。 "不久前，在扬州举办的'中国美业港'推介会上，我们结识 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first quarter of 2025, China's industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 1.509 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with March showing a 2.6% increase, indicating a positive shift in profit growth after a period of decline [1][2][3]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Economic Indicators - The profit growth of industrial enterprises turned positive for the first time since August 2024, supported by improved macroeconomic policies and a strong increase in industrial added value, which rose by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter [2][3]. - The manufacturing sector's profit margin improved slightly, with a cumulative profit margin of 4.7% in the first quarter, up by 0.17 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the profit margin for manufacturing shifted from negative to positive [2][3]. - The increase in profits was primarily driven by volume growth, with revenue rising by 3.4% in the first quarter, supported by strong domestic and international demand [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the positive profit growth, challenges remain, including increased turnover days for finished goods and accounts receivable, indicating pressure on cash flow for industrial enterprises [3][4]. - The external environment is becoming more challenging due to factors like "reciprocal tariffs," which may impact export performance, and persistent low prices affecting profit margins [4][5]. - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to support industrial enterprises, particularly in light of external shocks and the need for integration of domestic and foreign trade [5].

秦立燕说，烟台是外贸大市，对外贸易在全市高质量发展中发挥着举足轻重的作用。今年以来，面对严 峻复杂的形势，烟台市商务系统主动作为、积极应对，着力从政策服务、主体培育、业态创新等多方面 发力，取得良好成效。一季度，全市实现货物进出口总额1170.8亿元，总量居全省第二位，同比增长 12.5%，增速分别高于全国、全省11.2、6.6个百分点，总量占全省比重达14.3%，同比提升0.8个百分 点，实现了"开门红"，为全省商务指标稳健向好作出了烟台贡献。 持续加大政策供给。全面落实省政府关于打造高水平对外开放新高地等有关文件，立足烟台特色和工作 实际，制定出台《关于打造高水平对外开放新高地的实施意见》，持续完善国际物流通道，明确发展新 业态、加快推进绿色贸易等4项重点任务，充分赋能外贸发展。印发《烟台市跨境电商高质量发展三年 行动计划(2025—2027)》，实施跨境电商产业升级、主体培育、基础扩容、人才培育、服务创新五大工 程，年内打造20个海外仓、优化12个跨境电商产业带。 烟台市商务局将深入研判形势变化，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，采取行之有效的应对措施，全力稳 住外贸基本盘，加快推动内外贸一体化，以高质量发展 ...

Macro Perspective - The core point of the Central Political Bureau meeting is to implement more proactive macro policies and prioritize domestic demand, confirming the approach of early policy action to address economic pressures [1][2] - The meeting emphasized the need to enhance the income of low- and middle-income groups and promote service consumption to stimulate economic growth, indicating further policies targeting deflation expectations [1][2] Strategy Perspective - The meeting recognized the economic recovery since the beginning of the year, with GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2024, but highlighted the need for further stabilization due to external shocks [2] - Future policy directions include stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on proactive fiscal policies and appropriate monetary easing [2] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term government bonds is expected to accelerate, with local special bond issuance reaching approximately 24% by mid-April 2024 [2] - Monetary policy remains flexible, with potential for interest rate cuts and the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools to support consumption and innovation [2] Industry Insights - The real estate sector is expected to benefit from increased urban renewal efforts and a new development model focusing on high-quality housing supply [7] - The meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at optimizing the acquisition of existing properties and supporting the construction of affordable housing [7] - The construction materials sector, particularly consumer building materials, is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in new and second-hand housing transactions, as well as ongoing urban renewal policies [7] - The cultural and entertainment sectors are expected to thrive due to rising domestic demand for experiential consumption, supported by advancements in technology such as AI and virtual reality [4][7]

Group 1 - The "Quality Strong City" strategy is essential for helping companies create competitive advantages, with Shenzhen leading in standards, quality, brand, and service since 2010 [2] - The theme of the conference is "Quality Strong City Roots and Value Innovation Promotes Development," aimed at assisting companies in facing complex challenges and enhancing competitiveness through high-quality value innovation [1] - The conference included the awarding of the "Quality Strong City Gold Medal" to eight entrepreneurs and the designation of 13 companies, including ZTE, as "Leading Enterprises in Quality Strong City Construction" [1] Group 2 - Shenzhen's Quality Strong City Promotion Association will focus on building standards, quality, and brand, as well as training chief quality officers and developing information management systems, ESG governance, and integrated domestic and foreign trade [2] - The president of the Shenzhen Quality Strong City Promotion Association emphasized the importance of aligning with trends in artificial intelligence, green production, and ecological collaborative development to create new advantages [1]

外贸转内 中央为何要求 加快推动这个"一体化"? 联播+ 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，习近平总书记主持会议。会议部署当前经济工作时，特别提到要"加快推 动内外贸一体化"。 2021年11月，习近平主席以视频方式出席第四届中国国际进口博览会开幕式时首次提出，"中国将推进内外贸一体化"。同年12月，国务院办公厅印发《关 于促进内外贸一体化发展的意见》；次年12月，商务部等14部门公布内外贸一体化试点地区名单，北京、上海等9地被列为试点地区。 内外贸一体化，简单来讲就是企业同时开展内贸和外贸活动。它要求企业能够在国内外市场之间灵活切换和整合资源，实现经营内容和经营方式自主可 控，在国内市场和国际市场实现无缝对接。 然而，对于大部分国内企业来说，要想实现国内国际"两条腿"走路并不容易。 于中国企业而言，加快推进内外贸一体化可以借助国际竞争压力倒逼中国企业加快转型升级，通过灵活调整企业产供销渠道和生产经营计划，提升企业的 抗风险能力和生产经营韧性。 于国内消费者而言，则可以提升内销产品标准，让消费者无需出国，即可购买到与外销产品同品质的商品。 今年是我国"内外贸一体化"试点的收官 ...

下午一点半过后，会议的通稿就出来了，原文我就不贴了，贴一个民生固收团队做的图，可以看下和12月会议的措辞对比，整体来看，四 个感受。 1、去年12月提到的 稳住股市楼市 ，过去四个月，应该说大家是有切身体会的，确实是稳住了，而稳住之后，有了新的提法； 2、 正视困难 ，对贸易战可能带来的潜在影响，说得很直接； 3、和12月相比，本次会议在具体工作措施上，更加具体， 且 谈化总量，强调结构 ，这是最大的不同； 4、强调民生，尤其是关注 稳就业 ，不得不说，东哥背后有高人，大家看这回京东对美团的打击，从"五险一金"保障外卖小哥切入，占据 道德和社会价值制高点，高维打低维，在舆论场打得美团满地找牙（虽然两者的股价，合计跌超1000多亿了）。 我们逐项来聊一聊，都不会太长。 对股市、楼市、债市的观点 ，穿插在其中了。 ...... 1、货币政策。 原文： 要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 | | ––民生因收 · 谭迷鸣团队 -- | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ● 2025年4月政治局会议内容对比表 | | | | 8 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has launched the "Foreign Trade Quality Products China Tour" to integrate domestic and foreign trade, helping foreign trade enterprises expand their domestic sales channels and stabilize foreign trade while boosting consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Initiatives and Activities - The "Foreign Trade Quality Products China Tour" is a key initiative for promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade, facilitating foreign trade enterprises' access to domestic sales channels [1][3]. - The Ministry of Commerce has organized a touring procurement team and leveraged e-commerce platforms to support foreign trade and expand consumption [1][3]. - As of April 23, 15 major e-commerce platforms have responded positively, implementing eight measures including direct procurement and supply-demand matching [1][3]. Group 2: Procurement Activities - The first procurement activity of the touring procurement team was held in Jiangsu, with over 80 large supermarkets, e-commerce platforms, and retail enterprises participating [3]. - A specific example highlighted is a coffee cup from a foreign trade enterprise that became a hot-selling item at the Jiangsu event [3]. - Upcoming events are planned in provinces such as Fujian, Hubei, and Hunan to further promote the initiative [3]. Group 3: E-commerce Platform Support - E-commerce platforms are enhancing direct procurement efforts, with some signing contracts exceeding 10 million yuan and launching subsequent exclusive sales plans [3]. - Platforms are also providing support measures such as zero-cost entry and expedited services to facilitate foreign trade enterprises' integration into the domestic e-commerce supply chain [3]. - Over 200 matching events have been conducted by industry e-commerce platforms this year to connect foreign trade enterprises with domestic markets [3]. Group 4: Trade Fair Insights - The 137th Canton Fair is currently taking place, focusing on "Quality Home Furnishings" with a diverse range of products and a significant number of international buyers attending [5]. - As of April 24, 195,851 foreign buyers from 218 countries and regions have participated, indicating strong international interest in China's economic prospects [5]. - The fair showcases over 2,400 enterprises recognized for their technological advancements and innovation, reflecting an increase in the quality and sustainability of exhibited products [5].