热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： 周二，CBOT大豆小幅走低，交易商队美豆出口销售的速度仍持谨慎态度。与此同时，市场继续预测巴 西本季将再次迎来创纪录丰收。美国农业部周二发布的出口销售报告显示，截至12月11日，美豆单周净 销售239.62万吨，其中对中国净销售138.3万吨。国内方面，两粕止跌上涨，持仓量小幅增加。油厂压榨 保持高位，豆粕和大单供应充足。下游谨慎采购饲料原料，滚动采购。豆粕上下空间均有限，区间震荡 思路不变。策略上，双卖策略。 油脂： 周二，BMD棕榈油连续第二个交易日上涨，跟随豆油价格走高。国际原油价格上涨，因地缘政治担忧 升温，美国扣押委内瑞拉的石油。印尼公布了2026年生柴掺混配额，设定为1564.6万千升，略高于1560 万千升。虽然印尼强调明年执行B50，但实际掺混效果相当于B40。船运数据显示，马棕油12月1-20日 出口环比减少0.87%，表现好于1-15日。国内方面，油脂延续反弹态势，棕榈油领涨，豆油和菜籽油跟 随。进口成本走高提振了棕榈油价格走高，12月-1月船期采购不多，也给盘面支撑。不过，在终端需求 整体低迷以及豆油、菜籽油供应 ...

Price Performance - The latest price of London Platinum is 2083.00, with a change of 127.00 [2] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1773.00, with a change of 90.00 [2] - The latest price of WTI Crude Oil is 58.38, with a change of 0.37 [2] - The latest price of LME Copper is 11932.00, with a change of -37.00 [2] - The latest price of the US Dollar Index is 97.91, with a change of -0.35 [2] - The latest price of EUR/USD is 1.18, with a change of 0.00 [2] - The latest price of GBP/USD is 1.35, with a change of 0.01 [2] - The latest price of USD/JPY is 156.26, with a change of -0.77 [2] Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver is 14023.94, with a change of 7.36 [3] - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 899.66, with a change of -1.81 [3] - The latest Gold ETF holdings are 1064.56, with no change [3] - The latest Silver ETF holdings are 16503.37, with a change of -95.88 [3] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Gold is 1, with no change [3] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Silver is 2, with no change [3]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/24 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/1 7 801 2130 2095 2440 2485 2385 2550 249 318 -5 25 - 2025/12/1 8 801 2168 2120 2440 2485 2385 2525 251 318 0 20 - 2025/12/1 9 801 2157 2115 2435 2485 2385 2508 249 320 1 20 - 2025/12/2 2 801 2142 2115 2430 2485 2385 2500 248 320 11 20 - 2025/12/2 3 801 2137 2115 2420 2485 2355 2505 - - - 20 - 日度变化 0 -5 0 -10 0 -30 5 - - - 0 - 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运11 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The international device operating rate continues to decline, with gas restrictions expanding in Iran and most devices shut down. The daily output has dropped to around 6,000 tons. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, with low - price rigid - demand transactions and overall light trading. The spot basis is stable. The US dollar price is stable, and the overall external market operating rate is at a low level. The internal - external price difference continues to shrink, and the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed. The import forecast for January is raised to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrival in Taicang increases. The coal price is weakly falling, the coal - to - methanol profit is stable, the domestic supply is loose, and the ex - factory price is weakly falling. The MTO operating rate in the inland area is stable, and the recent inland price fluctuates weakly and stably. The Middle East is currently relatively stable. After the Fed's interest rate cut in December, the impact on methanol futures is weakened. With the expansion of gas restrictions in Iran, future import disturbances will intensify, and methanol will continue to be mainly oscillating and strengthening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2,156 (+2/+0.09%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the production areas, prices in Inner Mongolia South Line, North Line, Guanzhong, Yulin, Shanxi, and Henan are 1,930 yuan/ton, 1,900 yuan/ton, 2,040 yuan/ton, 1,870 yuan/ton, 1,980 yuan/ton, and 2,110 yuan/ton respectively. In the consumption areas, prices in Lunan, Lubei, and Hebei are 2,180 yuan/ton, 2,160 yuan/ton, and 2,120 yuan/ton respectively. In the Southwest, prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Yunnan - Guizhou are 2,060 yuan/ton and 2,040 yuan/ton respectively. At the ports, prices in Taicang, Ningbo, and Guangzhou are 2,130 yuan/ton, 2,180 yuan/ton, and 2,090 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Important Information This week (20251212 - 1223), the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest region totaled 24,130 tons (24,130 tons), a decrease of 35,570 tons (35,570 tons) from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 59.58% [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 450 yuan/ton, the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, and the domestic supply is continuously loose [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price is stable. Most devices in Iran are shut down due to gas restrictions, the tender premium increases, the non - Iranian operating rate rises, the overall external market operating rate is at a low level, the European and American markets are stable, the internal - external price difference continues to shrink, the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed, 640,000 tons have been loaded in Iran in December, some non - Iranian supplies are delayed until January, the import forecast for January is raised to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrival in Taicang increases [4]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of MTO devices has declined. Some MTO devices have different operating conditions, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device operating stably, Nanjing Chengzhi's Phase 1 295,000 - ton/year MTO device operating at a low load, etc. [4]. - **Inventory**: The import arrivals have slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly [4]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Go long on contract 05 [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [6].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View - The copper price in the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong performance during the day. The SMM predicts an increase in electrolytic copper production in December. The copper foil sector maintains a high level of prosperity, while the production enthusiasm of copper strips and tubes is weak. The market sentiment was boosted by the zero long - term agreement price of mine - end processing fees last week, but the downstream's weak purchasing sentiment due to year - end capital chain tension and tax - related factors, along with the uncertainties of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve, have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a growth rate of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits were squeezed this week, and the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, with capacity utilization declining. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil maintained a high level of prosperity due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand of new - energy vehicles [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong performance during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 125 yuan/ton. On December 22, 2025, the LME official price was $11,930/ton, and the spot premium was + $10/ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 49,500 tons, an increase of 1,001 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,800 tons, a decrease of 3,875 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 466,900 short tons, an increase of 2,640 short tons from the previous period [11]

格隆汇交易学苑 . 以基本面为基础，专注于趋势交易 近期期货铂、钯涨势凌厉， 12 月以来持续爆发。广期所铂期货累计涨幅超 4 0% ，钯期货达 43 % ， 在昨日 双 双涨停 后，今日铂期货继续涨停，钯期货大涨 5% 。 众所周知， 期货交易 一般 自带约 8 倍 到 10 倍 杠杆，投资者仅需少量保证金即可控制大额合约。若价格几天涨 40% ，按杠杆效应计算，炒作资金实际收益达 320% 至 400% ，相当于本金翻 3 倍 到 4 倍 ，收益被大幅放 大。 这一轮暴涨并非偶然，而是成本上升、供应短缺、政策扰动与新兴需求爆发等多重因素共振的结果。 以下文章来源于格隆汇交易学苑 ，作者格隆汇小编 在 供应端 ， 全球铂供应呈现出显著的 "寡头垄断"特征，生产集中度极高，且高度依赖南非与俄罗斯两大资源国。 从产量分布来看 ， 铂金全球矿山产量约 176 吨，加上回收量后总供应量为 218 吨。南非贡献了全球 70% 的产 量，俄罗斯占比 12% ，其余产量分散于少数国家。前五大生产商（英帕拉博业 28.1% 、十八页净水公司 20.6% 、英美铂业 19.5% 等）合计市场份额高达 89% ，行业集中度远超 ...

2025年12月22日，白银期货2602合约再创16280元左右历史新高，截至目前，白银期货年内累计涨幅已 超116%。（数据来源：文华财经，历史不代表未来） 白银本轮上涨主要源于全球库存偏紧、投机需求快速增长，以及美联储降息通道下的货币属性重估，该 逻辑目前并未发生根本改变。 白银期货主力合约实时日K线图（数据来源：新浪财经） 期货市场具有T+0、双向交易的灵活性。 金属牛市依旧可期，若想系统了解期货、提升交易能力，欢迎参加每日经济新闻联合中粮期货举办的 "经·粮杯—全国期货模拟争霸赛"！ 现在报名，立即解锁交易新技能 报名参赛即可获赠100万模拟本金，零成本试错、高收获成长，深度感受期货交易的魅力！ 进入每日经济新闻APP，点击： 私人订制 → 期货大赛 立即报名，开启你的期货进阶之旅！（广告） 如果用期货模拟交易跟踪12月行情： 假设在12月1日，白银价格运行于12700元附近，看好趋势后使用模拟账户做多。白银期货1手保证金比 例约25%。随着价格在12月19日上涨至16200附近，区间上涨约3500点，累计涨幅约27%，收益已可覆 盖期初保证金成本。 当然，若方向判断错误，同样可能面临相应幅度的亏损。 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 北京时间12月23日上午，纽约期银突破70美元/盎司，日内涨2.09%。 北京时间12月23日上午，纽约期银突破70美元/盎司，日内涨2.09%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1114.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.54%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1743.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.20%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1123.0，环比日盘收 盘上涨 1.67%；J2605 合约收于 1740.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.20%。 【重要资讯】 1、央行发布一次性信用修复政策有关安排，针对特定时期内、单笔金额在 1 万元以下 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 的小额个人逾期信息，将实施一次性信用修复，"免申即享"，信用卡、房贷、消费贷 等均可适用。 2、焦炭第三轮提降落地：自 2025 年 12 月 22 日 0 时起，河北市场钢厂对焦炭采购价下 调，山东市场主流钢厂对焦炭采购价湿熄下调 50 元/吨，干熄下调 55 元/吨。 3、2025 年 12 月 22 日山西太原市华润联盛原相焦煤（A9.5 S0.45 V21 G85）竞拍，起 拍价 1465 元/吨，数量 0.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].