Core Insights - Yili's revenue and net profit have declined for the first time in 29 years, with 2024 revenue at 115.39 billion, down 8.24% year-on-year, and net profit at 8.45 billion, down 18.9% [2][3] - Liquid milk, the core revenue driver, saw a significant revenue drop of 10.5 billion, a decrease of 12% [2][3] - The company's chairman, Pan Gang, experienced a slight salary reduction from 21.79 million to 19.74 million amid the performance decline [2] Revenue Performance - Yili's total revenue for 2024 was 115.39 billion, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, with net profit at 8.45 billion, down 18.9% [3][6] - Liquid milk revenue fell to 75 billion, a decline of over 12%, while the cold drink segment also saw a significant drop, with revenue at 8.72 billion, down 18.41% [3][5] - The share of liquid milk in total revenue has decreased from over 75% in previous years to approximately 65% in 2024 [6] Strategic Challenges - Yili has been facing challenges in its core liquid milk business, which has historically driven growth [5][6] - The company has invested approximately 6.3 billion in the infant formula sector, acquiring a stake in Aoyou Dairy, but this segment has also shown declining revenue and profits [7][9] - Aoyou's revenue fell from 8.575 billion in 2021 to 7.382 billion in 2023, with net profit dropping significantly [9][11] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Pan Gang expressed confidence in a gradual recovery of the consumer market, anticipating a return to growth in 2025 [14] - Yili is exploring new product lines, including ready-to-drink tea and other food categories, although these currently contribute minimally to overall revenue [13][14] - The company believes there is still growth potential in the dairy market, particularly in lower-tier cities where consumption is expected to rise [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a demand bottoming out, with opportunities for differentiation in sub-segments [1]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the dairy sector, driven by policy support and supply-side adjustments [33][34]. - The overall industry is facing challenges such as weak demand and increased competition, but cost advantages are improving profitability for leading companies [39][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see an upward cycle as impairment pressures are released, with upstream clearing expected to continue [33]. - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the dairy industry faced significant supply-demand imbalances, with fresh milk prices dropping to levels not seen since 2010 [11][16]. - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are showing signs of revenue improvement in Q1 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and inventory management [20][28]. 2. Condiments - The condiment sector is characterized by strong resilience among leading companies, with significant cost advantages boosting profitability [39]. - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the condiment industry faced weak demand, but leading companies like Haitian and Zhongju have shown revenue improvements due to internal adjustments [39][52]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that have successfully implemented channel reforms and cost management strategies [49][52]. 3. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with significant differentiation among companies [39]. - The report notes that leading brands like Dongpeng are capitalizing on cost reductions and scale effects to improve profitability [20][39]. - The overall market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with attention on long-term growth potential in specific segments [39]. 4. Health Products - The health product sector is undergoing a transformation driven by new consumer trends, with online brands gaining traction [39]. - Companies like H&H Holdings and Xianle Health are expected to benefit from market recovery and new retail contributions [39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-quality companies with new consumer genes for investment opportunities [39]. 5. Hong Kong Restaurant Sector - The restaurant sector in Hong Kong is anticipated to recover as consumption stimulus policies take effect [39]. - Companies like Haidilao are focusing on supply chain and cost management to enhance performance [39]. - The report suggests monitoring companies that are expanding their store networks and improving operational efficiency [39].

Group 1 - The central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts and mortgage relaxations, have injected significant liquidity into the market, yet the market remains cautious around the 3344-point resistance level [3][4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts was anticipated, but the mixed signals from Chairman Powell regarding inflation and potential future rate cuts have led to volatility in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices [3][4] - The technology sector is experiencing notable activity, particularly with the resurgence of the Hongmeng PC, which has positively impacted related stocks, although caution is advised regarding the sustainability of such trends [3][4] Group 2 - Consumer recovery indicators, such as the May holiday data, show promise, but there are concerns about the sustainability of certain "pseudo-influencer" brands that rely on subsidies [4] - The new energy vehicle sector is witnessing a rise in sales despite falling lithium prices, leading to improved profit margins for manufacturers [4] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining a balanced portfolio, with a focus on high-quality manufacturing and consumer sectors, while being cautious of market volatility [5]

推荐（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 整体业绩平淡，龙头强者恒强 调味品及餐饮供应链 24 年及 25 年一季报回顾 消费品/食品饮料 24 年看，整体需求弱复苏，企业普遍梳理渠道减轻库存压力。受益于成本下 行，板块毛利率改善，但竞争加剧下费用率有所提升，企业盈利分化。合并 24Q4+25Q1 看，板块受制于需求弱复苏及餐饮平淡，收入端相对承压，但海 天为代表的龙头企业率先完成调整，业绩更优。25 年看，预计成本端平稳，行 业费用投放相对稳定，若收入端加速复苏，则板块盈利能力有望进一步改善。 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 143 | 2.8 | | (%) 食品饮料 | | 沪深300 | | 总市值（十亿元） 30 | 5074.1 | 6.0 | | 流通市值（十亿 20 | 4823.6 | 6.2 | | 元） | | | 行业指数 0 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.6 5.1 8.3 相对表现 4.0 10.5 4.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 May/2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Post Securities indicates a positive outlook for consumer investment opportunities, highlighting both cyclical recovery and new consumption trends as key areas of focus for investors [1] Group 1: Travel and Tourism Data - During the May Day holiday, 314 million domestic trips were made, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [1] - The average spending per person was 574 yuan, reflecting a 1.5% increase year-on-year, indicating a simultaneous rise in both consumption volume and price [1][4] Group 2: Retail and Dining Performance - Key retail and dining enterprises saw sales increase by 6.3% year-on-year during the holiday, with significant growth in home appliances (15.5%), automobiles (13.7%), and communication equipment (10.5%) [5] - E-commerce platforms reported over 20% growth in smart home product sales, while dining enterprises experienced an 8.7% increase in sales [5] Group 3: Cross-Border Travel Trends - Inbound travel orders surged over 170% during the holiday, with predictions of 2.15 million daily cross-border movements, a 27% increase compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Consumer Recovery Insights - The report suggests that the current consumer data indicates a gradual recovery, with the need for further confirmation from upcoming holiday data [6][8] - The combination of various consumer policies, such as trade-in programs and dining vouchers, has significantly stimulated consumption [5][8] Group 5: Overall Consumer Sentiment - The overall sentiment indicates that consumption is gradually warming, with expectations for a transition from short-term stabilization to a more comprehensive recovery [7][8] - The report emphasizes that while the recovery is on the right track, it will require time to fully materialize [8]

证券研究报告：社会服务|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7997.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9343.57 | | 52 周最低 | | 5985.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 社会服务 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《三问三答再看政策，全面看好消费 机会》 - 2025.03.18 五一消费数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，五一假期 5 天，全国国内出游 3.14 亿人次，同比增长 6.4%；国内出游总花费 1802.69 亿元，同比 增长 8.0%。我们折算人均花费为 574 元，同比增长 1.5%，五一消费 量价齐升。 ⚫ 投资要点 零售餐饮：以旧 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook on consumer opportunities, indicating a gradual recovery in consumption trends, supported by various government policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes that the May Day holiday data shows significant growth in both the number of travelers and total spending, suggesting a strong recovery in the consumer sector [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Information - Closing index level is 7997.15, with a 52-week high of 9343.57 and a low of 5985.5 [1] Recent Research Insights - The report notes a 6.4% year-on-year increase in domestic travel during the May Day holiday, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, a growth of 8.0% [4][5] - Retail and catering sectors showed a 6.3% increase in sales, with specific categories like home appliances and automobiles seeing growth rates of 15.5% and 13.7% respectively [5][6] Investment Recommendations and Focused Targets - The report suggests focusing on cyclical sectors such as liquor and catering, which are expected to benefit from economic recovery [9] - Recommended stocks include Yum China, Haidilao, and various tourism and hotel companies [9]

全国旅游市场爆火、服务消费持续升温、政策发力撬动消费数据...2025年"五一"假期，消费力依然"强劲"。 赢商网盘点了2025年五一假期期间，文旅、餐饮零售、电影等各行业，以及全国部分重点省市消费数据，通过数据客观、真实地反映市场现状，以供行业 参考。 01 全国消费市场数据 "五一"旅游数据抢眼，离境退税新政策撬动假期入境消费 文旅：3.14亿人次出游，总消费1802.69亿元 据文化和旅游部官网消息，劳动节假日五天（5月1日-5月5日），全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出游总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长 8.0%。 中国入境旅游市场迎来强劲复苏，文化体验与多元玩法成为吸引外国游客的核心动力。携程数据显示，五一期间入境游订单量同比激增130%，上海、深 圳、广州、北京、成都、重庆、杭州、珠海、西安、青岛等城市跻身热门目的地榜单。 与此同时，出境游市场也实现增长。携程数据显示，五一跨境游热潮涌动，出境游订单量同比增长两成。 零售&餐饮：全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，以旧换新备受欢迎 据商务部商务大数据监测，2025年五一假期（5月1日-5月5日），全国重点零售和餐饮 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Add" [6] Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry is expected to recover in 2024, with a focus on quality brands in 2025. The apparel brands are projected to face profit pressure in 2024, with a slight improvement anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][4] - The textile manufacturing sector shows stable growth, with a significant profit increase driven by improved capacity utilization. The impact of recent tariff changes may accelerate industry optimization in the medium to long term [2][4] - The gold and jewelry sector exhibits performance divergence, with brands that focus on store expansion and product differentiation outperforming the industry average [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Apparel Brands - In 2024, the revenue of key apparel companies (A-shares only) is expected to decline by 2.2%, with a net profit drop of 24.1%. The decline in profit is more significant than revenue due to negative operating leverage and increased expense ratios [1][21] - The gross margin for key apparel companies is projected to increase by 0.4 percentage points to 56.8% in 2024, with a further increase of 1.1 percentage points to 57.4% in Q1 2025 [1][33] - Cash flow for most brands in 2024 is expected to align with performance, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [1][49] 2. Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is projected to see a revenue increase of 6.4% and a net profit growth of 26.9% in 2024, with leading companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group showing revenue growth rates of 15% and 19% respectively [2][4] - The revenue growth for key textile manufacturing companies is expected to slow down in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to high base effects, but overall performance remains stable [2][4] - The sector is expected to benefit from a more integrated and internationalized supply chain, particularly for leading companies [2][4] 3. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector is expected to see a revenue decline of 1.7% in 2024, with a net profit increase of 3.6%. Companies with strong product differentiation and store expansion strategies are likely to outperform [3][4] - The consumption of gold jewelry is projected to decrease by 25% in 2024, while the demand for gold bars and coins is expected to rise by 25% [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommended stocks include Anta Sports, with a projected PE of 18 times for 2025, and other companies like Tabo, Weigao Medical, and Hailan Home, with varying PE ratios [4][9] - In textile manufacturing, recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with projected PE ratios of 11 and 15 times respectively for 2025 [4][9] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chaohongji are highlighted, with projected PE ratios of 16 and 18 times for 2025 [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].