Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a bullish trend in gold prices. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. government shutdown has heightened market anxiety, with the shutdown lasting 20 days and key economic data like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being delayed, which amplifies economic uncertainty and boosts safe-haven demand for gold [3]. - There is a strong expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with a 99% probability, and another cut anticipated in December, driven by potential economic weakness and trade tensions affecting inflation and growth [3]. - Ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite positive statements from President Trump, continue to support gold prices due to geopolitical risks [3]. - Global economic instability and geopolitical tensions, including developments in Japan and the Eurozone, as well as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold closed with a strong bullish candlestick, recovering from previous declines and indicating a clear bullish momentum, with the 5-day moving average providing solid support [5]. - The immediate resistance level is at 4381, where a failure to maintain above this level could indicate a potential double-top formation, while a successful breakout could lead to further upward movement towards the 4415-4419 resistance zone [5][8]. - Short-term support is identified around the 4280-4270 range, which is crucial for maintaining bullish sentiment; if prices stabilize here, it could present a buying opportunity [8].

Group 1 - The US and Australia have signed a key mineral agreement, with Trump stating that rare earths and minerals will be abundant [11] - The White House announced that Australian pension funds will increase investments in the US by approximately $1 trillion over the next decade [11] - Apple's stock reached a historic high, with its market capitalization approaching $4 trillion [11] Group 2 - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.12%, S&P 500 up 1.07%, and Nasdaq up 1.37% [3] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 2.42%, with the technology index rising 3% and trading volume reaching HKD 239.16 billion [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.63% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.98% [4] Group 3 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters [11] - Ningde Times reported a net profit of 18.5 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 41% [11] - The latest loan market quotation rate remained unchanged, with both the one-year and five-year LPR stable [11]

External Environment Trends - The global political and economic landscape is experiencing deep adjustments, with increasing polarization and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a more complex international environment [2][19][20] - The rise of "global south" countries is weakening the US-led unipolar system, resulting in a shift towards a multipolar world where developing countries seek strategic autonomy [2][19][24] - The global governance system is undergoing reconstruction, with traditional multilateral institutions losing effectiveness and the emergence of "mini-lateralism" and flexible alliances [2][20][21] Technological Competition - The technology sector is becoming the core battleground for global competition, with increasing "techno-nationalism" leading to technology blockades and export controls, particularly against China [3][22][23] - China's long-term investment in technological innovation is expected to yield results, potentially entering a period of technological explosion, especially in green, digital, and AI sectors [3][22][23] Economic Growth and Trade - Global economic growth is projected to slow down, with an average annual growth rate of 3.1% over the next five years, lower than the previous five years [2][23][24] - Trade protectionism is on the rise, with global trade growth expected to average 3% annually, below the economic growth rate, indicating a significant adjustment in global trade dynamics [2][26][27] Investment Focus - Investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will prioritize human-centered development, focusing on improving living standards and future industries [10][11] - Key investment areas include infrastructure for public health, elderly care, and digital transformation, with a strong emphasis on green and smart technologies [11][12][13] Financial Market Dynamics - The international financial market is characterized by divergence, with major economies adopting different monetary policies, leading to increased volatility in currency exchange rates [4][32][33] - The dominance of the US dollar is declining, with a growing trend towards a multi-currency system, where the euro and renminbi are gaining prominence [5][34] Consumer Trends - Domestic consumption is expected to grow steadily, with a shift towards more personalized and diversified consumer demands driven by technological advancements [7][8][9] - The aging population is creating a burgeoning silver economy, with significant growth in demand for elderly care products and services [9][10]

Core Insights - Despite escalating trade protectionism, the global economy is expected to show resilience in 2025, supported by factors such as preemptive consumer spending and investment, as well as a weaker dollar [1][7][9] - The IMF warns that while expansionary fiscal policies in major developed economies may boost short-term growth, high debt levels and rising financing costs pose medium to long-term risks [1][10][11] Trade Tensions and Global Adaptation - The IMF emphasizes the need for constructive solutions to trade disputes, advocating for an open and fair competitive environment [3] - Since the onset of the trade war, global businesses and investors have been adapting to ongoing trade policy uncertainties, with trade flows shifting towards third countries [4][5] - Current high tariffs are nearly universal, complicating corporate decision-making beyond just tariffs [5][6] Transmission of Tariff Effects - The IMF notes that the impact of trade protectionism on economic activity and prices has been limited so far, with effective tariff rates around 18%, lower than previously estimated [7][8] - A weaker dollar has helped mitigate the impact of tariffs, supporting global trade flows and easing inflationary pressures in emerging markets [7][8] - As the initial effects of preemptive consumer behavior fade, cost pressures may eventually be passed on to consumers, leading to persistent inflation rather than a one-time shock [8] Spillover Effects of Expansionary Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies in major economies are observed to boost economic activity in the short term, partially offsetting the negative impacts of tariffs [9][10] - High levels of sovereign debt and rising borrowing costs are eroding policy space and could lead to cross-border spillover effects [10][11] - Changes in financial markets, including the rise of stablecoins, may introduce new systemic risks and cross-border implications [11] Impact of Government Shutdown on Monetary Policy - The IMF is closely monitoring the economic impact of the recent U.S. government shutdown, which may have short-term negative effects but typically gets compensated later [12][13]

Group 1 - Ant Group and JD.com have suspended their plans to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong due to regulatory directives from the People's Bank of China and the Cyberspace Administration of China [1] - The Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the Stablecoin Regulation Draft on May 21, which took effect on August 1, leading to expectations of the first compliant Hong Kong dollar stablecoin by the end of the year [1] - Stablecoins are seen as a bridge between traditional financial systems and cryptocurrency, enhancing transaction stability and cross-border payment capabilities [1][2] Group 2 - HSBC Jintrust Fund noted that the introduction of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong and the U.S. has significantly increased regulatory clarity, which is expected to accelerate the development of the stablecoin industry [2] - JD.com has received a sandbox approval from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for stablecoin issuance and is in the second phase of its testing plan [2] - JD.com's founder expressed ambitions for global stablecoin licensing to reduce cross-border payment costs by 90% and improve efficiency to under 10 seconds [2] Group 3 - Ant Group's blockchain subsidiary has been exploring blockchain applications for several years, including a successful issuance of a cross-border RWA project in Hong Kong [3] - Ant Group is also planning to apply for stablecoin licenses in Singapore and Hong Kong, focusing on integrating AI and blockchain technologies into large-scale applications [3] - The challenges for stablecoins lie not in replacing the U.S. dollar but in altering how it flows within the global system [3] Group 4 - Mainstream stablecoins like USDT and USDC are still pegged to the U.S. dollar but are changing the mode of dollar circulation by enabling peer-to-peer transactions on blockchain networks, bypassing traditional banking systems [4] - The reserve structure of stablecoins may diversify beyond the U.S. dollar to include assets like gold, euros, Hong Kong dollars, or even digital yuan [4] - As of the latest market close, Yunfeng Financial and Yaocai Securities experienced declines of 7.7% and 5.5%, respectively [4]

Core Insights - High levels of debt and rising financing costs are eroding policy space and may lead to cross-border spillover risks [1][10] - Despite escalating trade protectionism, the global economy is expected to show resilience in 2025, supported by factors such as preemptive consumption and investment by businesses and households, as well as a weaker dollar [1][7] - Expansionary fiscal policies in major developed economies may boost short-term economic growth but increase medium- to long-term risks due to high debt levels and rising financing costs [1][9] Trade Tensions and Global Adaptation - The IMF is closely monitoring trade tensions, emphasizing the need for constructive solutions to maintain an open and fair competitive environment [3] - Global businesses and investors are adapting to ongoing trade policy uncertainties, with trade flows shifting towards third countries as a response to U.S.-China trade dynamics [4][5] - The current high tariff environment is nearly universal, complicating corporate decision-making beyond just tariffs [5][6] Impact of Tariffs - The impact of trade protectionism on economic activity and prices has been limited so far, with effective U.S. tariff rates around 18%, lower than previous estimates [7][8] - A weaker dollar has supported global trade flows and eased inflationary pressures in emerging markets, allowing for more accommodative monetary policies [7][8] - As the initial effects of preemptive consumption fade, cost pressures may eventually be passed on to consumers, leading to persistent inflation rather than a one-time shock [8] Spillover Effects of Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies in major economies are observed to have short-term positive effects on economic activity, partially offsetting the negative impacts of tariffs [9][11] - High sovereign debt levels are raising concerns about public finance sustainability, leading to increased borrowing costs and potential cross-border impacts [11] - The rapid rise of stablecoins may introduce new vulnerabilities in cross-border finance, potentially leading to systemic risks [11] Government Shutdown and Monetary Policy - The IMF is monitoring the economic impact of the recent U.S. government shutdown, which historically has had limited long-term effects [12][13] - The Federal Reserve has various methods to assess economic conditions and will base its policy decisions on available information [13][14]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points with a probability of 99% during its upcoming meeting on October 28-29 [3] - The Federal Reserve will host a payment innovation conference on October 21, focusing on stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization, indicating significant developments in the tokenization of real-world assets [2] - The current international monetary system is facing challenges, including the loss of the dollar's dominance and the emergence of digital currencies, which may lead to increased volatility in asset prices [4] Group 2 - The traditional dollar hegemony is being questioned due to its disconnection from Chinese production capacity, leading to a dilemma in balancing liquidity demand and currency stability [4] - Experts suggest that China should explore the integration of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) with stablecoins and real-world assets to maintain value stability and efficiency [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that while the global financial system appears stable, there are underlying risks that could lead to significant disruptions [4]

Group 1 - The global market is focusing on US inflation performance and energy inventory changes, with investors reassessing the pace of inflation decline and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments for the year [1][2] - Key economic events this week include the Federal Reserve's payment innovation meeting, which will address stablecoins, AI, and tokenization, and the release of the US CPI report, which is expected to influence market expectations for interest rate changes [1][2] - The energy market will be influenced by API and EIA inventory data, as well as active drilling counts, which will reveal supply and demand dynamics [2] Group 2 - The CPI report on Friday is the most anticipated data, with potential implications for market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which could impact the dollar, gold, and risk assets [2] - If core CPI continues to slow, it may strengthen expectations for rate cuts, while persistent inflation could reignite tightening expectations, affecting the dollar and gold prices [2] - Overall, the energy market is expected to oscillate between demand concerns and geopolitical uncertainties, with inventory trends playing a crucial role in oil price movements [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's payment innovation meeting is the focal point of the week, with attention on regulatory stances regarding digital currencies, AI, and fintech [1] - The speeches by Governors Waller and Barr may signal new policy directions, providing clues for future decision-making [1] - The CPI data to be released on Friday is a key market indicator; a cooling core CPI could weaken dollar support, benefiting gold and risk assets [1] Group 2 - The API and EIA inventory reports, along with drilling data, will guide the supply-demand dynamics in the energy market [2] - Rising inventories may pressure oil prices, while declining inventories or heightened geopolitical risks could lead to short-term rebounds [2] - Market volatility is expected to increase due to inflation data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches; investors are advised to maintain light positions and respond flexibly to sudden fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD has officially integrated with the TRON network, marking a significant step towards the convergence of traditional finance and decentralized systems, emphasizing "payment freedom" as a key practice in financial inclusion [1][5]. Group 1: Collaboration and Technology - The collaboration involves PayPal, LayerZero, and TRON, creating a seamless asset transfer channel that allows PYUSD to circulate natively on TRON, eliminating technical barriers between different chains [2]. - LayerZero provides the cross-chain technology support, while TRON offers a high-throughput and low-cost public chain infrastructure, making it an ideal platform for PYUSD's circulation [2]. Group 2: TRON's Growth and Stability - Since its mainnet launch in 2018, TRON has seen significant growth, with over $21 trillion in cumulative transfer volume and more than 332 million accounts, processing an average of over 9 million transactions daily [3]. - The emphasis on stablecoins as a core element of TRON's ecosystem highlights their importance in driving network activity and financial infrastructure [3]. Group 3: Blockchain's Mainstream Acceptance - PayPal's deployment of PYUSD on TRON signifies mainstream financial systems' acceptance of blockchain as a viable infrastructure, moving beyond niche applications to become a tool for inclusive finance [5]. - This shift indicates that blockchain is evolving from a testing ground for enthusiasts to a widely accessible financial tool for everyone [5]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The collaboration is seen as just the beginning, with plans to expand stablecoin applications and deepen partnerships with cross-chain technology providers to lower the barriers for users [8]. - The vision includes integrating stablecoins into broader use cases such as consumption, savings, and settlement, establishing a true bridge between the real economy and the digital ecosystem [8].