Core Viewpoint - The cement and steel industries are facing significant challenges due to declining demand and prices, leading to a consensus among companies to implement production cuts and measures to protect profits, termed "anti-involution" policies [1][2][5]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [1]. - Major cement-producing provinces, Shandong and Sichuan, are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decrease from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [6][9]. - The current average cement price is projected to decline from 419 yuan/ton in 2023 to 386 yuan/ton in 2024, and further to 381 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also under pressure, with prices at historical lows following a peak in 2021. The average price index for steel is expected to drop to approximately 3506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [3][7]. - Steel production companies are implementing production cuts, particularly in Tangshan, where hard emission reduction measures will be enforced from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron output by about 50,000 tons per day [4]. - The steel industry's profits have significantly decreased, from 4240.9 billion yuan in 2021 to 365.5 billion yuan in 2022, and are projected to be 564.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 291.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The overall market for both cement and steel is characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a need for structural adjustments to avoid systemic collapse in the industry [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" measures are crucial for achieving a balance between supply and demand during periods of declining demand, which is essential for the healthy development of the industry [9][10]. - The current economic environment necessitates a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [10][11].

反内卷政策解读：行业视角之水泥 20250707 摘要 水泥行业产能过剩严重，2024 年产能利用率仅为 53%，远低于非金属 矿业平均水平，且销量同比下降至少 10%。区域间发展不平衡加剧问题， 部分地区开窑率已降至 30%以下，行业面临突出的结构性矛盾。 水泥企业主要通过错峰生产和控产量应对内卷，但部分企业为追求规模 化和市场份额，不执行错峰生产，导致价格波动剧烈，破坏行业生态。 尽管如此，多数企业仍对反内卷政策抱有期望。 未来水泥价格预计将持续受供需矛盾影响，需加强自律手段，如精准错 峰限产和合规限产，以控制总量并稳定市场价格。或将出台更严格的自 律措施，通过政府或行业提升处罚力度。 区域性水泥企业对反内卷政策接受度较高，而全国性布局企业在控价能 力强的区域更积极。部分产能发挥不足或使用替代燃料的企业倾向于产 能双控，龙头企业也逐渐接受错峰生产。 国家层面推进供给侧结构性改革 2.0，遏制低价无序竞争，提升产品质 量。市场监管总局加大抽查力度，淘汰低水平粉磨站。但水泥行业自律 机制受反垄断法限制，需更高层次文件支持。 Q&A 未来水泥相关产品价格预计将继续受到供需矛盾加剧和需求不断下滑的影响。 在此背景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 35,000 million yuan for 2025, with a strong focus on operational efficiency and market expansion in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Goals - As of the first half of 2025, the company expects to achieve revenue between 16,500 million and 19,500 million yuan, indicating that it is on track to meet its annual goals [1]. - The overall market demand is expected to recover in 2025, with ceramic products maintaining stable development trends due to their essential nature in daily life [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Expansion - The company plans to actively expand into the high-end market for household ceramics by optimizing product structure and enhancing customer service systems [2]. - There will be a focus on upgrading the production capacity and technological innovation of zircon-titanium mineral refining products to create new growth points for performance [2]. - The company is committed to improving financial management and operational efficiency through supply chain optimization and production process improvements [2].

调研行业：装修建材 参与调研的机构：中信证券、广发证券、招商证券等 四通股份分析师会议 调研日期：2025年07月07日 / 机构调研pro小程序 DJvanbao.com 洞见研报 出品 : 机构调研pro小程序致力于为金融证券投资者提供最新最全的调研会议纪要。 来机构调研pro小程序，了解最新的：行业投资风向、热门公司关注、权威机构分析... 权威完善的信息持续更新! 更多精彩的机构调报告请移步机构调研pro小程序~ 一解投资机构行业关注度。 频判市场 | Gallia | | | --- | --- | | 11 2 12 200 2 110 | | | 1:给我们 = 影片面临官 = | | | 阿里巴巴佩尼 | | | 钢铁机之题。 8 | 图纸制图: 23 | | 20GB Millio Aller 19 | | | 海双集团 | | | 1 1 80.0 0 | 总机构建 23 | | LOGA: REGH, KETA: 1986 | | | 小麦具日 | | | 的研究次数:8 | 上机构馆:23 | | 定年代的:用者点击:我要的中:主要原因 | | | START SHILL CARD | ...

以下文章来源于字母榜 ，作者彦飞 字母榜 . 让未来不止于大 产能瓶颈难得住小米吗？ 文 ｜ 彦飞 编辑 ｜ 王靖 来源｜ 字母榜（ID：wujicaijing） 封面来源 ｜IC Photo 在YU7一小时大定近30万单火爆登场后， 小米正面临着一场空前艰苦的产能冲刺。 截至目前，小米汽车APP的YU7交付时间已经拉长至9个月，甚至一年以上。其中，YU7标准版为58~61周，Pro版为51~54周，Max版为39~42周。 小米汽车门店的销售人员确认了这一点，并建议订购起售价高达32.99万元的Max版，尽量缩短交车周期。 对于漫长的等待，小米粉丝并不特别介意。字母榜在探店时发现，动辄一年的等待期，并没有让忠实拥趸热情稍减。这里面有品牌忠诚度的因素，也有大多 数购车者均为增购、家里另有车开的原因。 但手握数十万张锁定订单的小米，并不敢就此躺平一整年。 如何尽快拉升产能，已成为小米汽车接下来很长一段时间的头等要务。 目前，小米所有车辆均产自北京亦庄的一期工厂，原本设计年产能15万辆，去年6月开始两班倒，并通过加装机器人等挖掘潜能。目前，这座工厂每76秒就 有一辆新车下线，日产量约1000辆。 小米拉高产能的关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mobile power bank industry is facing a significant crisis due to a series of product recalls and operational challenges, primarily stemming from safety issues related to battery cells, which have led to widespread operational disruptions among major manufacturers [4][10][20]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The mobile power bank market has become extremely competitive, characterized by low margins and high pressure on manufacturers to innovate while maintaining cost efficiency [5][21]. - The market is projected to grow from $13.59 billion in 2024 to $20.35 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.40% [23]. - The industry has shifted from a focus on capacity to a more comprehensive competition involving fast charging, design, and pricing, as growth rates have slowed [24][25]. Group 2: Recent Events - The crisis was triggered by a recall of 490,000 units by Romoss and 713,000 units by Anker due to safety concerns related to defective battery cells [4][10]. - Romoss announced a temporary halt in production for six months starting July 7, 2025, due to operational challenges exacerbated by the recall [4]. - Anker's vice president expressed anxiety and urgency within the organization as they navigate the fallout from the recalls [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - The recalls were linked to a specific battery cell supplier, Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), which reportedly made unauthorized changes to raw materials, leading to safety hazards [10][11][14]. - Amperex is a leading supplier in the soft-pack battery sector, producing over 100 million lithium batteries in 2023, with major clients including Romoss and Anker [13]. - The complexity of battery safety production and testing poses significant challenges, with many potential points of failure in the supply chain [17][19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industry is marked by intense competition, with many companies racing to enhance performance and features, often at the expense of safety and reliability [28]. - The price of power banks has significantly decreased, with Romoss's 20,000mAh fast-charging model dropping from a price range of 129-149 yuan in 2021 to 69 yuan by the end of 2024 [26]. - Companies like Anker and Ugreen are investing in research and development to differentiate themselves in a saturated market, with R&D expense ratios of 8.5% and 4.9%, respectively [29].

分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 xuzhi@ccnew.com 稳健前行，建议关注消费与红利资产 ——月度策略 相关报告 投资要点： 《月度策略：外部不确定性仍存，成长与价值 均衡配置——月度策略》 2025-06-04 《月度策略：风险偏好或将提升，建议关注消 费科技行业——月度报告》 2025-05-08 《月度策略：宏观环境逐步改善，建议关注科 技与红利板块——月度报告》 2025-04-07 联系人：李智 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期：2025 年 07 月 07 日 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第2页 / 共24页 | 1. 宏观环境 | 5 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 重要事件 5 | | | 1.2. 重要宏观数据 5 | | | 2. 6 月份市场及行业表现 | 10 | | 2.1. 股市回顾 10 | | | 2.2. 债市回顾 11 | | | 2.3. 行业表现 12 | | | 2.4. 行业估值水平 13 | | | 3. 7 月配置建议 | 13 | | 4. 产能周期 | 1 ...

2011-2015 年熊市周期与当前周期的比较 日期：2025年7月 研究所·李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 研究所·金园园（联系人） 从业资格号：F03134630 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint —硅铁篇 宏观经济疲软，工业产能过剩背景下，供需平衡存在必要性 ◼ 全球经济复苏乏力，中国经济增速放缓： 中国GDP增速放缓，宏观经济较为谨慎 2011-2015年，全球金融危机余波持续， 欧美经济复苏缓慢；中国GDP增速从 2011年的18.2%降至2015年的7.1%，经 济结构调整（如去产能和环保升级）直 接影响钢铁产业链。供给侧改革后期， 淘汰落后产能并将有效产能兼并重组政 策，提高粗钢生产量级，有效推动硅铁 需求的复苏。 ◼ 2020年至今，受到全球疫情因素的冲击， 工业与制造业需求断崖式收缩，钢铁生 产短暂影响停滞。2021年后期，受到基 建和出口需求的影响，钢铁需求增速呈 现V型反弹，供应表现相对平稳，支撑硅 铁需求，但拉动相对有限。 资料来源 Mysteel ，铁合金在线： ，国泰君安期货 ...

| 产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月7日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 其差 | 品种 | 现值 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 前值 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3170 | 3150 | 20 | 77 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3160 | 11 | 10 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 137 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3098 | 300dd | -1 | 72 | | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3072 | 3076 | -4 | ರಿ8 | 螺纹钢01合约 | 77 | 3093 | 3090 | 3 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3250 | 0 | 40 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhu Hai Chuan Mei Xun New Materials Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, facing challenges such as leadership changes and declining profit margins despite revenue growth [1][5]. Company Overview - The company was founded in 2004 and is controlled by LIM KHENG TEE and Lin Yu Xiang, who together hold 62.79% of the shares [2]. - Lin Yu Xiang, a former professional baseball player, has gradually reduced his management role and shareholding, officially stepping down as chairman in December 2023 [3][4]. Leadership Changes - LIM KHENG TEE, aged 59, has taken over as chairman from Lin Yu Xiang, who remains a director and deputy general manager [4]. - The leadership transition coincides with Lin Yu Xiang's divorce, which resulted in a share transfer to his ex-wife [3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased from 185 million yuan in 2022 to 207 million yuan in 2024, but net profit showed a decline from 42.2 million yuan in 2023 to 40.11 million yuan in 2024, indicating a "growth without profit" scenario [5]. - The sales prices of several products, including dispersed ink and water-based pigment ink, have been decreasing, contributing to the profit decline [5][7]. Industry Competition - The digital ink printing industry is experiencing intense competition, leading to price wars and declining product prices [5][8]. - Competitors have indicated that the current price pressure is primarily due to competition within the industry, with expectations of continued price declines [8]. Future Plans - The company plans to raise 43.16 million yuan through the IPO to expand production capacity, aiming to increase total capacity from 9,599.19 tons to 14,299.19 tons, a 49% increase [8].