交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (7.28-8.1) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油先扬后抑，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶67.26美元，周涨2.85%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶69.52美 元，周涨1.65%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶513元，周涨0.02%。周初，美国总统特朗普表示将把原先给俄罗斯的俄乌停火最后期限提前，按照 新的期限，俄罗斯需要在10天内与乌克兰达成停火协议，特朗普称，若俄罗斯未能与乌克兰达成停火协议，美国可能会对其施加经济惩罚，其 中包括对进口俄罗斯能源的国家施加二级制裁。与此同时，周内特朗普已宣布自8月1日起对印度进口商品征收25%关税， ...

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, particularly materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials, which dropped 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - Other developed countries also saw declines in their 10-year bond yields, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly fell, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27][39] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45][46] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52][58] Group 6 - The US economy's Q2 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.6%, but internal demand showed signs of weakness [73] - Consumer spending in Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, below the expected 1.5% [73] - The overall GDP growth was primarily driven by net exports, indicating a potential end to the trend of "importing" [73] Group 7 - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the expected 104,000, with previous months' job additions revised down significantly [76] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, below the anticipated 7.5 million [76]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the U.S. is moving forward with a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, which has been confirmed by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and there are significant adjustments to previously reported employment data that have raised concerns about the U.S. job market [2][3] - The new tariffs include a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, a 50% tariff on Brazil, a 25% tariff on India, and a 39% tariff on Switzerland, indicating a firm stance on trade policy by the Trump administration [2][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase in the unemployment rate in July, and the number of non-farm jobs added in May and June was significantly revised downward, suggesting a cooling job market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to U.S. tariffs, highlighting that while the theoretical tariff rate has increased by 4%, the actual impact on the economy may exceed market expectations due to potential increases in enforcement and regulatory measures [1][5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - As of August 7, 2025, the U.S. has implemented new tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising from 10% to a range of 10%-41% for 69 specific economies, averaging 17.7% [2]. - The overall average theoretical tariff rate has increased by approximately 4% compared to June, which is significantly lower than the 15% increase observed from April to May [4]. Trade Agreements - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with major partners, resulting in a reduction of tariff rates for certain countries compared to the previous exemption period [4]. - Notably, countries like Thailand, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka have seen a decrease in tariff rates, indicating potential trade agreements with the U.S. [4]. Enforcement and Regulatory Changes - There is a possibility of increased customs enforcement, which could enhance the economic impact of existing tariffs. The article notes that the actual execution of tariffs has been less stringent than theoretical rates, which may change with new regulations [6]. - The introduction of a unified 40% tariff on recognized transshipment activities suggests a tightening of trade regulations, particularly affecting U.S.-China trade dynamics [6]. Industry-Specific Tariffs - The ongoing implementation of Section 232 tariffs, particularly on steel, aluminum, and automotive products, could significantly impact the U.S. economy, as these products account for about 20% of total U.S. imports in 2024 [6].

美国白宫7月31日晚发布公告称，美国总统特朗普当日签署行政令，公布69个贸易伙伴的输美商品所适 用的关税税率。据台湾媒体报道，其中对台湾地区税率为20%。受此消息影响，台股8月1日开低，收盘 于23434.38点，下跌108.14点；新台币兑美元在美元升值、关税利空、台股下挫等多重因素的影响下， 跌破30元整数大关。（新华社） ...

许多贸易伙伴的基线关税税率被维持在4月的10%不变，好于市场最坏担忧。 美国供应管理协会（ISM）本次调查是在总统特朗普周四（7月31日）宣布新一轮关税前进行的。 与此同时，制造商仍面临更多不确定性，因为总统尚未宣布对药品、半导体、关键矿产和其他核心产业 材料进口关税的调整措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's trade surplus for the first half of the year reached $19.48 billion, a 26% increase from $15.45 billion in the same period last year, driven by strong exports in June, particularly in palm oil and gold jewelry [1] Trade Performance - The trade surplus for January to June 2023 was $19.48 billion, up from $15.45 billion in the same period of 2022, marking a 26% growth [1] - June exports amounted to $23.44 billion, reflecting an 11.29% year-on-year increase [1] - Key contributors to the strong trade performance included a surge in palm oil and gold jewelry exports, as well as preemptive exports to the U.S. before tariff implementation [1] Export Dynamics - In June, Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the U.S. increased by 33.5% year-on-year, with major products including electronic machinery, clothing, footwear, palm oil, rubber, and seafood [1] U.S.-Indonesia Trade Agreement - A recent agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia will reduce U.S. import tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%, with potential further reductions on certain U.S. products lacking domestic production [1] - Indonesia has agreed to eliminate tariffs on 99% of U.S. industrial goods, food, and agricultural products, and has committed to purchasing more U.S. goods [1] Future Trade Outlook - Economists suggest that the new U.S. tariffs could pressure Indonesia's trade surplus, as increased imports may coincide with declining prices for major commodities like coal [1]

值得注意的是，公告说，除另有明确规定外，没有被列入附件一的贸易伙伴商品将适用10%的额外从价 关税。来自中国产品所适用的关税税率不受这一行政令的影响。 白宫31日晚发布公告说，美国总统特朗普当日援引1977年美国《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）等法 律签署行政令，调整从69个贸易伙伴进口商品所适用的从价关税税率。 白宫发布的附件一信息显示，包括欧盟在内，绝大多数这些贸易伙伴的商品在进入美国市场时将适用从 10%至40%不等的所谓"对等关税"税率。其中，适用15%税率的国家或地区有40个，适用19%或20%税 率的国家或地区有10个。 公告表示，新的关税税率将在行政令发布7天后开始实施，但有些情况则例外。一些附件中的贸易伙伴 已经同意或接近完成与美国达成贸易和安全协议，但在这些协议完成并正式确认前仍将适用新的税率。 通过转运以逃避关税的物品将适用40%的从价关税并接受其他处罚和税费等。 此外，多个民主党籍参议员31日举行新闻发布会对特朗普加征关税和对贸易协议夸大其词等做法进行抨 击。参议院少数党领袖舒默说，美国企业需要确定性，但从中得到是混乱和通胀。他说："特朗普的关 税贸易战是对美国人民的一场贸易战。" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate meeting maintained the interest rate level, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. If there are no significant changes in interest rates and inflation, the consolidation period of gold may be extended. It is recommended to buy gold on dips in the range of 750 yuan/gram - 762 yuan/gram [9]. - The trend of silver is generally similar to that of gold. In the long run, there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If the tariff situation eases and risk sentiment rises, silver may outperform gold. However, the non - implementation of the 50% tariff on refined copper may drag down silver prices. It is recommended to buy silver on dips in the range of 8900 yuan/kg - 8950 yuan/kg [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy News - Trump signed an executive order to modify reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. Countries not listed in Annex I will be imposed a 10% tariff, and the tariff on Canada will be raised from 25% to 35% effective August 1, 2025. Goods transshipped to avoid the 35% Canadian tariff will be subject to a 40% transshipment tariff. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the nomination for the Fed chairman is expected to be announced by the end of the year, and there will be two vacancies on the Fed Board. Trump also said that appointing Powell as Fed chairman was a mistake [2] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.30 yuan/gram and closed at 770.28 yuan/gram, down 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 770.92 yuan/gram, up 0.12% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,145.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,008.00 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,100,640 lots, and the open interest was 371,110 lots. The overnight session closed at 8,935 yuan/kg, down 1.37% from the afternoon session [3] US Treasury Yields - On July 31, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 3%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [4] Position and Volume Changes - On July 31, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 2,312 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,280 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 324,304 lots, up 27.56% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 9,760 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,881 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,394,017 lots, up 65.29% from the previous trading day [5] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 954.51 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,062.32 tons, down 87.58 tons from the previous trading day [6] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 31, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 5.91 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 443.13 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.51, up 1.58% from the previous trading day, and the ratio of foreign gold and silver prices was 87.86, up 0.70% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Data - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 32,458 kg, up 23.61% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 675,762 kg, up 139.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,836 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 70,050 kg [8]

值得一提的是，早在今年2月，特朗普政府便依据1977年颁布的美国《国际紧急经济权力法》 （IEEPA），以芬太尼及其他违禁药物经由北部边境流入本国为由，宣布全国进入紧急状态，并随之对 加拿大输美商品开征25%的关税。而此次于31日公布的最新关税调整政策，同样是援引该法律作为其施 行依据。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为794元/克至840元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于766元/克 至815元/克。 在当日，美国总统特朗普正式签署行政命令，明确规定自8月1日起，将针对加拿大输往美国的商品所征 收的关税税率由25%提升至35%。 回溯至7月10日，特朗普曾向加拿大总理卡尼寄出信件，在其中宣告了自8月1日开始对源自加拿大的进 口商品实施35%关税的新举措。不仅如此，在31日凌晨时分，特朗普还通过社交媒体平台发声指出，鉴 于加拿大方才宣布支持巴勒斯坦的国家地位这一情况，此举极有可能使美加两国达成贸易协议的进程面 临重重阻碍，变得愈发艰难。 今日周五（8月1日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于768.50附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报770.08元/ 克，涨幅0.02%，最高触及773.1 ...