行业 沥青日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 17 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $67.5, closing at $71.53, with a high of $74.63, a low of $67.11, a daily increase of 7.34%, and a trading volume of 66.91 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.6, closing at $73.63, with a high of $75.30, a low of $69.42, a daily increase of 7.58%, and a trading volume of 103.34 million lots. SC's opening price was 539.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 541.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 553.6 yuan/barrel, a low of 532.5 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 5.43%, and a trading volume of 22.83 million lots [6] - **Core View**: Tensions between Israel and Iran continue, but energy infrastructure has not been significantly affected. In the short term, due to OPEC+ actual production increase being lower than expected, the start of the peak travel season in Europe and the United States, and rising geopolitical tensions, oil prices may continue to rise. In the medium term, the balance sheet indicates inventory accumulation, and if geopolitical tensions ease without a substantial supply disruption, oil prices may fall again [6] Group 3: Industry News - Iran's parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty [7] - In May, the output of crude oil in industrial enterprises above designated size was 18.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, 0.3 percentage points faster than in April, with a daily output of 596,000 tons. From January to May, the output was 90.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The decline in crude oil processing deepened [7] - Goldman Sachs still expects no disruption to Middle Eastern oil supply [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [9][10][17][22]

Group 1 - The recent US-China economic talks have raised market expectations, but geopolitical tensions are causing market fluctuations [1] - The domestic capital market is gradually stabilizing, with the market pricing in the positive expectations from the talks [1] - Last week, the stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region experienced slight adjustments due to geopolitical events in the Middle East, but the overall impact was limited [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) showed volatility last week, with a peak close to mid-May highs but ultimately closed below the five-day moving average [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index struggled to recover the 60-day moving average, indicating ongoing market challenges [1][2] - Average daily trading volume exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan for two consecutive weeks, indicating a recovery in market activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unresolved in the short term, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have rebounded significantly [1][8]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and then rebounded to a high of $3446.53, closing at $3433.74, marking a weekly increase of $121.97 or 3.68% [1][3]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $152.84, indicating strong volatility in the gold market [1]. Influencing Factors - The decline in the US dollar index provided support for gold prices, driven by technical buying and increasing geopolitical tensions, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3][7]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was lower than expected, enhancing the prospects for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that despite recent volatility, gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend since last year [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold prices have been consistently moving higher, with the potential to reach $3500 or $3545 in the near future [11][13]. Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, along with concerns over tariffs and economic conditions, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [7][8]. - The market anticipates continued upward movement in gold prices, supported by both technical indicators and fundamental factors [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent military actions in the Middle East, leading to expectations of a substantial increase in domestic fuel prices in China [1][3][5]. Oil Market - International oil prices experienced a notable increase, with WTI crude oil rising to $72.98 per barrel and Brent crude oil reaching $74.23 per barrel, marking daily increases of 7.26% and 7.02% respectively [3]. - Over the current pricing cycle, WTI crude oil has increased from $62.52 to $72.98 per barrel, reflecting a rise of 16.73%, while Brent crude oil has risen from $64.63 to $74.23 per barrel, showing a 14.85% increase [3][5]. - The rise in oil prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the worsening situation in the Middle East following Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, which has raised concerns about global oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [3][5]. Domestic Oil Price Changes - In China, the domestic oil price adjustment cycle has seen a reference average price of $66 per barrel, leading to an increase of 155 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a rise of approximately 0.14 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline [5]. - The upcoming price adjustment on June 17 is expected to confirm a significant increase in domestic fuel prices, with some estimates suggesting a potential rise of around 250 yuan per ton [5][7]. - The current pricing cycle has been influenced by the recent surge in international oil prices, which has not yet been fully reflected in domestic pricing due to the timing of the price adjustment [5][7].

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a downward trend this week, hitting a three-year low due to lower-than-expected CPI data, which fueled strong expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Spot gold prices rose significantly, supported by a weak dollar, increased rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions, reaching $3445 per ounce [1] - Silver prices continued to rise, hovering at the highest levels since 2011, closing at $36.33 per ounce [1] Oil Market - International crude oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 13% to exceed $77 per barrel, marking a high not seen since February [2] Investment Insights - UBS Global Wealth Management recommends strategic investments in Chinese stocks, citing that trade risks have peaked and more policy support may be forthcoming [5] - Paul Tudor Jones predicts a shift to a "super dovish" stance by the Federal Reserve next year, potentially leading to a 10% depreciation of the US dollar [5] - Daniel Ghali from TD Securities suggests that silver prices could rise further to $40 and challenge historical highs of $50 by year-end [5] - Optimism for the US stock market is growing, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs projecting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index by year-end, reaching a target of 6500 points [5] Major Events - Israel launched a significant military operation against Iran, targeting over 100 sites, which has heightened geopolitical tensions and could impact market stability [6] - The US government has not participated in Israel's military actions but has coordinated with Israel, emphasizing a desire for Iran to return to negotiations [7] Economic Indicators - The US CPI data for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12] - The US tariff revenue reached $23 billion in May, a 270% increase year-on-year, reflecting the impact of new tariff policies [10][11] Corporate Developments - 17 major automotive companies in China have committed to a payment term of no more than 60 days to suppliers, aiming to foster a collaborative ecosystem in the industry [22] - Pop Mart's stock price has surged nearly 13 times over the past year and a half, driven by popular IPs like LABUBU, with significant auction results boosting investor interest [25]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising concerns over geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on the gold market, suggesting that gold may be entering a bullish phase [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Concerns - There is an escalation in geopolitical tensions, which is influencing market sentiment towards gold [1] - The analysis indicates that these tensions could lead to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to assess market trends and investor behavior [1] - The article suggests that monitoring order flows can provide insights into potential price movements in the gold market [1]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets set at $3435 and $3500, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On June 12, gold opened at $3356.10 per ounce, reached a high of $3398.86, and closed at $3386.58, marking a daily increase of $30.48 or 0.91% [1]. - The daily trading range was $60.28, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index fell, supporting gold prices, as both employment and inflation data showed signs of cooling, reinforcing expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3][7]. - The market anticipates a nearly 60% probability of a rate cut in September, despite strong non-farm payroll data that reduced immediate cut expectations [5][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, are fueling market risk aversion, which benefits gold prices [8]. - Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for a 200 basis point rate cut have further strengthened the outlook for gold [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by the 5-month moving average, despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has rebounded from key support levels, with expectations to reach the upper Bollinger Band at $3500 [11]. - The daily chart reflects a bullish outlook, with gold stabilizing above the 5-10 day moving averages and aiming for targets of $3435 and $3500 [13]. Investment Strategy - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at support levels around $3371 or $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3400 or $3435 [13].

·国投期货表示，隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%，核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再 次呼吁降息，美元回落，金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金 价涨幅。各方关税谈判将继续主导市场，俄乌等地缘局势持续紧张，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调 买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空间。 ·新湖期货表示，昨晚美国公布的5月CPI略低于市场预期，市场加大对美联储降息的押注，同时特朗普 再度向美联储施压降息，数据公布后黄金短线快速走强。中美首轮关税贸易谈判基本达成，市场不确定 性进一步降低。短期来看，中美首轮和谈进展符合市场预期，美国关税政策不确定性给市场带来的影响 有所减弱，金价波动在近期可能有所降低，但需警惕特朗普政策的反复。中长期来看，央行购金具有持 续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 ·瑞银（UBS）的分析师在给客户的报告中称，尽管黄金近期走势有所盘整，但"目前金价涨势的暂停预 示着下一轮上涨行情的好兆头，因为看涨黄金的市场情绪没有改变。该行分析师认为，围绕美国关税、 财政政策和美联储应对的高度不确定性，增强了对投资 ...