周五公布的密歇根大学7月份的报告显示，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心反弹，在7月初升至五个月来的最高水平，人们对经济和通胀的预期持续改善，通 胀预期也显著回落。 美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.8，预期61.5，前值60.7。尽管如此，该消费者信心指数仍低于去年全年水平。 分项指数方面，7月密歇根大学消费者的现况指数初值66.8，预期63.9，前值64.8，改善明显；预期指数初值58.6，预期56.9，前值58.1。 不过，如果宣布进一步加征关税或通胀回升，消费者信心可能会受到抑制。 消费者对当前个人财务状况的看法有所改善，可能受益于美国股市的反弹。此次调查于7月14日结束，距美国总统特朗普签署预算案已有一周多时间，该预 算案包括延长减税并为打工小费收入者提供新减免。 此次消费者信心回升主要受到共和党人和政治独立人士信心改善的推动。 消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。 （文章来源：华尔街见闻） 市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.4%，为2月以来的最低，低于预期的5%，前值为5%；5年通胀 ...

Core Insights - The significant reduction in immigration and large-scale deportation policies are expected to negatively impact economic growth, contrary to claims that new budget proposals will boost growth above 3% [1][2] - The new budget allocates $70 billion for border security and $75 billion for domestic enforcement, which may lead to a decrease in population and labor force, adversely affecting economic growth [1][2] - A projected sharp decline in undocumented immigrants this year could lower U.S. GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points, given the historical average growth rate of about 2.5% [1][2] Immigration Policy Impact - If the Trump administration achieves its goal of deporting one million people annually, the economic drag could increase to 1.5 percentage points by 2027 [2] - The current U.S. economy is nearing full employment, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% for native workers in 2024, making the impact of reduced immigration on the labor market more pronounced [2] - The claim that limiting immigration will create job opportunities for native workers is challenged by data showing that native workers occupy only 1/8 of the jobs held by undocumented immigrants, which are often low-paying and physically demanding [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The complementary relationship between native workers and undocumented immigrants suggests that deportation may not create jobs for natives, as evidenced by past enforcement programs that reduced native employment rates and wages [2] - Automation and AI are unlikely to quickly fill the gap left by undocumented immigrants, as current AI applications primarily replace professional and clerical jobs rather than manual labor [3] - Strict immigration controls may deter STEM workers and students, delaying technological advancements and negatively impacting long-term productivity growth [3] Future Considerations - The U.S. faces a demographic challenge with an aging workforce and declining birth rates, necessitating a forward-looking immigration policy rather than merely reducing immigration and increasing deportations [3] - Without immigration, the U.S. population is projected to begin declining by 2033, which could constrain economic growth [3] - To achieve its economic growth objectives, the administration should reconsider its restrictive immigration policies [3]

Economic Growth and Price Trends - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, indicating a resilient performance despite challenges [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has decreased by 2.8%, suggesting room for improvement in demand-side policies [2] - The core CPI is showing a mild recovery, influenced by rising gold prices and the "old-for-new" policy, which should be continued to support consumer price increases [2] Policy Measures and Market Regulation - The government is focusing on addressing irrational competition in various industries, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic, cement, and steel, to stabilize prices and improve PPI [3] - A meeting on July 1 emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which is expected to enhance market order and improve corporate profits [3] - The State Council is implementing actions to boost consumption, including optimizing the "old-for-new" policy and expanding investments in emerging service sectors [4] Real Estate Market Focus - The real estate market is highlighted as a critical economic cycle, with stable housing prices being essential for consumer confidence and demand [5] - The government aims to prevent a decline in housing prices and is committed to policies that will stabilize the real estate market [5] - Overall, the focus is on expanding domestic demand and regulating market order to ensure prices remain within a reasonable range [5]

Economic Performance - Hubei's GDP reached 29,642.61 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a net increase of 2,296.16 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, which is 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous year and 0.9 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Key economic indicators in Hubei outperformed the national average, with industrial added value, service industry revenue, fixed asset investment, retail sales, and import-export totals growing by 7.9%, 12.2%, 6.5%, 6.9%, and 28.4% respectively, exceeding national averages by 1.5, 4.1, 3.7, 1.9, and 25.5 percentage points [1] Investment and Consumption - Hubei has 19,250 construction projects, a 7.1% increase, with project investment (excluding real estate) growing by 9.8%, surpassing the national average by 3.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment rose by 12.5%, exceeding the national average by 5.0 percentage points [1] - In the consumption sector, wholesale and retail sales grew by 5.9% and 8.7% respectively, with social retail sales totaling 13,073.93 billion yuan, a 6.9% year-on-year increase, outpacing the national average by 1.9 percentage points [2] Technological and Trade Developments - Hubei's technology contract transaction volume increased by 10.6%, driving high-tech industry investment up by 8.8%, with high-tech service industry investment growing by 24.6% [3] - Hubei's import-export total reached 402.31 billion yuan, with exports and imports growing by 38.5% and 7.4% respectively, significantly higher than national averages [3] Market Trends - The demand for quality of life has increased, with notable growth in health, new cultural tourism, and green intelligent consumption, supported by policies like trade-in programs for automobiles and mobile phones [2] - Real estate sales and new construction areas increased by 5.9% and 5.6% respectively, indicating a positive trend in the housing market [2] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the positive economic performance, external pressures and internal structural contradictions remain significant challenges, necessitating continued efforts to enhance development capabilities and sustain economic recovery [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that further interest rate cuts may be necessary if core inflation remains controlled and economic growth continues to be weak [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Indicators - Core inflation must remain under control for the potential of further rate cuts to be considered [1] - Economic growth is currently described as lackluster, which influences the decision-making process regarding interest rates [1] Monetary Policy - The statement suggests a proactive approach to monetary policy, indicating that the Federal Reserve is prepared to adjust interest rates in response to economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that financial conditions are exerting a slight dampening effect on economic growth [1] Group 1 - Financial conditions are currently impacting economic growth, suggesting a cautious outlook for future economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly stated that it is not necessary to sharply slow down economic growth to achieve the final goal of inflation control [1] Group 1 - Daly emphasized the importance of balancing economic growth with inflation targets, suggesting that a gradual approach is preferable [1] - The statement indicates a potential for continued economic expansion without drastic measures, which may influence market expectations [1] - The Fed's stance could lead to a more stable economic environment, potentially benefiting various sectors [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Daly highlighted that the economy has achieved robust growth and the labor market remains strong, but concerns persist regarding the lack of price stability [1] Economic Performance - The economy is experiencing steady growth, indicating positive trends in various sectors [1] - The labor market is performing strongly, suggesting low unemployment rates and high job creation [1] Price Stability Concerns - Despite the positive economic indicators, there are ongoing worries about achieving price stability, which could impact inflation and monetary policy decisions [1]

Oil Market Overview - Oil prices experienced a rebound in early trading, recovering from previous losses due to stronger-than-expected economic indicators from major oil-consuming nations and easing global trade tensions [1] - U.S. crude oil inventories saw a significant decline of 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million, surpassing the expected draw of 552,000 barrels, indicating robust refinery operations and heightened demand [2] - Despite the rise in crude prices, unexpected increases in gasoline and diesel inventories suggest a supply overhang in refined products [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's economic snapshot indicated a modest pickup in activity, but the overall outlook remained "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with businesses concerned about inflation from higher import tariffs [4] - Chinese economic data showed a slower second-quarter growth, but crude oil processing in June rose by 8.5% year on year, indicating strong fuel demand [5] Global Trade Outlook - President Trump expressed optimism regarding trade negotiations with major partners, hinting at progress with China, an imminent trade agreement with India, and potential deals with Europe [6] Sector Performance Gainers - Energy sector, particularly the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), is expected to benefit from rising oil prices as exploration and production companies increase output [9] - Steel producers, represented by the VanEck Vectors Steel ETF (SLX), are likely to gain from rising oil prices as they supply materials for oil drilling operations [10] Losers - Retail sector, represented by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), may suffer as rising energy prices squeeze consumer spending [12] - Oil refiners, represented by the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), could face profitability challenges due to higher crude prices impacting their input costs [13] - Airlines, represented by the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), are expected to perform better in a falling crude price scenario, as energy costs significantly affect their overall expenses [14] - Gold miners, represented by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), may face pressure on operating margins due to higher oil prices, which constitute a significant portion of their production costs [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][36] Core Viewpoints - Economic performance is steadily recovering, but consumer confidence still needs further boosting. In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The GDP for the first half of 2025 was 66.05 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][3] - The overall economic operation in the first half of 2025 was stable, with consumption playing a significant supporting role. The total retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 24.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3][4] Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, with contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries at 3.6%, 36.2%, and 60.2% respectively. The growth pace aligns with the annual target of 5% [3][4] - The retail sales of goods increased by 5.1%, while restaurant income grew by 4.3% in the first half of 2025. The service retail sales also saw a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3][4] Consumer Confidence - The average urban unemployment rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.2%, showing stability, but consumer confidence has not significantly improved. The consumer confidence index was at 88.0 in May, indicating a low level of confidence [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel demand, such as Lingnan Holdings and Tongcheng Travel. Other recommended companies include those in the business and exhibition sectors, as well as various hospitality and entertainment firms [3][4]