| Clerkers | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【201 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 唐第政府 | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | 发布日期:2025/05/ | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 节后开盘避免追高,关注中小盘弹性释放机会,多头品种上主要考虑中证 1000 (IM) | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | 日 银 | | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期谨防价格回调风险。 | | | | | 策略方面关注沪铜正套机会。 | | | 铝 | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确定性,铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 氧化铝供需格局有所好转,预计下行 ...

智通财经记者 | 安震 4月29日晚间，六大国有银行公布了2025年一季度业绩报告，总体情况来看，六大国有银行的营业收入 总和为9，101.84亿元，同比下降1.51%；归母净利润总和为3，444.2亿元，同比下降2.09%。国有大行 普遍出现营收或归母净利润下滑，唯有农业银行营收和净利润均实现增长。 受到银行业绩承压影响，4月30日银行股出现回调，六大国有行股价均出现较大幅度回落。A股工商银 行（601398.SH）、农业银行（601288.SH）、建设银行（601939.SH）跌幅均在3%以上。截至收盘，华 夏银行（600015.SH）跌幅最大，达到8.55%，42家上市银行37家股价下跌，仅浦发银行 （600000.SH）、郑州银行（002936.SZ）、民生银行（600016.SH）、中信银行（601998.SH）上涨， 显示出对于银行一季度业绩的担忧情绪。不过，机构仍然看好银行股后市表现。 营收净利润表现分化 从财务表现来看，六大行营业收入呈现"三升三降"，归母净利润"两升四降"。其中，工商银行实现营业 收入2127.74亿元，同比下降3.22%；归属于母公司股东的净利润841.56亿元，同比下降3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the previous leading indicators for bond pricing, particularly the reverse trading of rural commercial banks and the forward configuration of insurance in long-term bonds, may no longer be effective in the current market environment [5][6][14] - Rural commercial banks have shown a significant preference for increasing their holdings in 7-10 year government bonds, while their net buying of certificates of deposit has decreased [6][7] - The insurance sector has shifted its focus from long-term government bonds to local government bonds, indicating a change in investment strategy compared to previous years [14][15] Group 2 - The report discusses two quantitative trading strategies: mean-variance strategy aimed at maximizing expected returns under given risk levels, and threshold buy-sell strategy designed to identify high-value trading opportunities [18][22] - Evidence suggests that the effectiveness of leading indicators is declining, with rural commercial banks showing a reduced probability of bond yield increases following net buying actions in 2025 compared to previous years [18][24] - The report indicates that rural commercial banks have a relative advantage in timing their profit-taking actions, as their net selling after exceeding threshold levels correlates with lower probabilities of subsequent yield increases [24]

在近期披露的公募基金一季报中，多只REITs产品经营数据也迎来曝光。 其中，消费类REITs经营数据尤为亮眼，同比数据皆有增长，且在二级行情中，一季度内也是消费类产品涨幅 居前，共有三只基金涨幅超过30%。 REITs在此前低迷的行情里，吸引不少机构资金参与抄底。券商资管、基金专户与险资等均有布局，尤其是险 资出现在多只新发REITs等战投名单中。有机构人士指出，在利率持续走低的背景下，REITs的稳定分红优势 尤为突出，成为险资对抗"资产荒"的重要工具。 多只消费类REITs营收增长领先 据Wind数据统计，在所有披露的54只REITs基金中，今年一季度共有15只公募REITs产品营业收入超1亿元。 其中，平安宁波交投REIT收入5.17亿元，遥遥领先于其他产品；国泰君安济南能源供热REIT收入3.77亿元，中 信建投国家电投新能源REIT、鹏华深圳能源REIT、中金安徽交控REIT三只产品收入均超2亿元，一季度内， 共有15只REITs产品收入过亿元。 从营业收入的同比数据来看，共有32只可比基金。今年一季度营收增长最高的四只产品包括了华夏华润商业 REIT、华夏金茂商业REIT、嘉实物美消费REIT和华 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **看多品种**: 五大、短纤 [1] - **看空品种**: 铜、PTA、苯乙烯、尿素 [1] - **震荡品种**: 股指、国债、黄金、白银、铝、氧化铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、工业硅、多晶硅、螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、锰硅、硅铁、玻璃、焦炭、棕榈油、豆油、棉花、生猪、燃料油、沪胶、乙二醇、甲醇、PE、PP、PVC、烧碱、菜油 [1] - **观望品种**: 纸浆 [1] - **震荡偏空品种**: 原木 [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 五一期间海外不确定性大，建议部分品种轻仓过节，关注国内外宏观及资源国政策变动 [1] - 不同品种受关税、贸易摩擦、供需格局、成本、政策等因素影响，走势各异，投资策略需根据各品种具体情况制定 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - 股指期货短期轻仓观望，节前可考虑介入股指期权双头策略；国债受资产荒和弱经济利好，但短期央行提示利率风险压制上涨空间；黄金短期震荡调整，中长期上涨逻辑未变；白银关税不确定性高，商品属性限制银价上方空间 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - 铜下游需求尚可，但贸易摩擦影响下价格反弹后有回调风险；铝价因全球贸易摩擦不确定性震荡运行；氧化铝供需格局好转，下行空间有限但上行缺乏动力；锌关注逢高空机会；镍和不锈钢受关税、印尼资源税政策影响，短期震荡运行，关注成本支撑和政策变动 [1] - 锡价因曼相矿区复产预期，短期上方压力较大；工业硅供过于求，进入低估值区间；多晶硅短期跌幅大，有反弹需求；碳酸锂供给未收缩，库存累库 [1] Black Metals - 螺纹钢、热卷受贸易风波影响，短期风险偏好差；铁矿石受关税政策影响短期承压；锰硅库存高但成本有支撑；硅铁成本松动但产区减产；玻璃需求脉冲式释放；焦煤和焦炭供需相对过剩，关注期现正套和卖出套保机会 [1] Agricultural Products - 棕榈油和豆油资金节前避险情绪强，建议观望；棉花受原油和化纤替代影响，需求或偏弱；原糖因海外担忧价格上行，国内产量大增压制内盘；五大余粮趋紧且产区干旱，盘面预期震荡偏强；豆粕供应预期改善，建议等待低位布局多单 [1] - 纸浆受贸易摩擦影响暂无利好，盘面贴水建议观望；原木到船和库存高位，贸易摩擦利空需求；生猪存栏和出栏体重增加，盘面贴水现货 [1] Energy and Chemicals - 原油影响棉纺需求，PTA因装置检修和市场传闻看空；乙二醇装置检修；短纤工厂减产加工费扩张，看多；苯乙烯受关税影响下游需求转弱，看空；尿素供需宽松，价格向下调整 [1] - 甲醇短期区间震荡，中长期或由强转弱；PE、PP因宏观风险和贸易战震荡偏弱；PVC基本面弱难以趋势上涨；烧碱节前需求一般，盘面震荡偏弱 [1] Others - 集法财线强预期弱现实，旺季合约可轻仓试多，关注6 - 8反套 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the weekly tracking of institutional behavior in the bond market. It shows that liquidity relaxed this week, with changes in various indicators such as interest rates, fund durations, "asset shortage" index, leverage ratios, and product break - even rates [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Institutional Bond Holdings The report presents figures on the bond holdings of generalized funds, insurance institutions, securities companies, and commercial banks, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the given content [14][12]. 3.2 Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Prices**: Liquidity relaxed this week. R007 closed at 1.66%, down 5BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.64%, down 6BP from last week; the 6 - month national - stock transfer discount rate closed at 1.16%, up 8BP from last week [17]. - **Financing Situation**: This week, the balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase was 106,943.2 billion yuan, a 0.8% decrease from last week. From the perspective of generalized asset management, fund companies and bank wealth management had net financings of - 1.136 billion yuan and 9.513 billion yuan respectively [21]. 3.3 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performing and general interest - rate bond funds were 5.75 and 4.14 respectively, increasing by 0.11 and 0.19 compared to last week [27]. - **"Asset Shortage" Index**: The "asset shortage" index increased this week [3]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary - capital bonds, ultra - long - term government bonds, and 10Y local bonds are provided, with specific construction methods referring to relevant reports [36][37][41]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio was 106.8% this week, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from last week. In terms of generalized asset management, the leverage ratios of insurance institutions, funds, and securities firms were 116.6% (up 0.4 percentage points), 101.8% (up 1.0 percentage point), and 210.3% (down 11.9 percentage points) respectively [43]. - **Bank Self - Investment Comparison Table**: The table shows the nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and returns after considering taxes and risk capital for different investment products such as general loans, 10Y treasury bonds, and 10Y national development bonds [48]. 3.4 Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: Figures on the weekly establishment scale of various types of funds and the 2025 fund yield distribution are presented [50]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The break - even rate of all bank wealth - management products in the market decreased this week, reaching 2.3% [53]. 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking Figures on the inter - period spread trend and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract are provided [59]. 3.6 Generalized Asset Management Landscape Figures on the scale changes of generalized asset management, public - offering funds, and bank wealth - management products are presented [61][64].

| ICTERHER | | | 投资咨询业务资格 · 证监许可 2012 · · | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 唐笛吹赤 1 | 17 | | 研究院:李泽钜 | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 月底中央政治局会议渐行渐近,政策预期犹存,股指赛略仍以逢低布局多 | | | | | 头为王。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | | | 关税不确定性仍高企。商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期反弹后价格存在回调 风险。 | | | 铝 | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确定性,铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 氧化铝供需格局有所好转,预计下行空间有限,但上行 ...

行 业 研 究 首单权益型资产支持证券成功发行，发行市场持续活 2025 年 04 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 沪深300 中证REITs全收益 相关研究报告 《支持符合条件的燃煤发电项目发 行，保障房 REIT 表现持续优异—行 业周报》-2025.4.20 《华泰紫金苏州恒泰REIT披露询价 公告，保障房 REIT 表现持续优异— 行业周报》-2025.4.13 《汇添富上海地产租赁住房REIT正 式上市，保障房 REIT 表现持续优异 —行业周报》-2025.4.6 ——行业周报 qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 首单权益型资产支持证券成功发行，发行市场持续活跃 风险提示：（1）公募 REITs 价格变动及运营风险；（2）调控政策超预期变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of long-term special government bonds in China, amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan, is aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, thereby strengthening the domestic economic cycle [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - This year, China will issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special government bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to last year [2]. - The first issuance will focus on 20-year and 30-year bonds, starting on April 24 [2]. - Of the total, 800 billion yuan will support "two major" projects, while 500 billion yuan will be allocated to expand the "two new" policies [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The early disclosure of bond issuance plans and rapid financing is intended to enhance expectations for economic improvement and stimulate consumption [2]. - In the first quarter, supported by the "two new" and "two major" policies, related consumer goods experienced double-digit growth, indicating progress in expanding domestic demand [2]. Group 3: Role of Government Bonds - Long-term special government bonds will enable more fiscal funds to promote consumption and expand domestic demand, converting private savings into effective demand to support economic growth [3]. - These bonds will also provide greater support for technological innovation and industrial development in "two major" construction projects, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development [3]. Group 4: Market Implications - The issuance of long-term special government bonds will increase the supply of safe assets in the market, alleviating the "asset shortage" issue in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. - China's government bonds, as high-grade securities, have the potential to become significant global safe assets, attracting international investors [3]. - As of April 15, foreign institutions have increased their holdings of Chinese bonds by over 270 billion yuan, reflecting a positive attitude towards the Chinese bond market [3].