全球市场周一开盘陷入了寂静，A股、美元、黄金几乎都没怎么波动。这有点出入预料——既没有因为 降息预期升温而上涨，也没有因为上周五的大跌而恐慌。 · 一方面，下次发布非农数据市场还会不会相信？如果不信任，那么波动将加剧。特朗普解雇了劳工统 计局局长，并称数据受到操纵。 · 另一方面，市场上很多人还没意识到"二次伤害"正在逼近。9月美国劳工部还要发布2025年3月的"基准 修正"初步估计。根据高盛的预测，可能会再砍掉 55-95万人。换句话说，接下来可能还要再平均"月 减"4.5万到8万人。如果属实，将是2010年以来最大的一次下修。这不仅是修正过去，也是重新定义当 前的"真实就业水平"。 安静背后，并非是因为缺少催化剂，而是"怀疑气氛持续加重"。 第一，初步答案将交给今晚，届时看美股的表现，如果其能够止跌，那么市场将迅速忘记当前的痛苦。 第二，美元的走势也是备受关注的，如果其能够收涨，证明非农数据不过是"一日行情"——焦点将迅速 转向下周的通胀数据，以及下个月的非农数据。 第三，上周五的非农就业报告发布，可能令就业数据上升到了与通胀数据同样重要的程度。不过，现实 的一个问题是——美国就业数据失去了信任——4月和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Investment Officer of Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) maintains the view that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once before the end of the year, with confidence in such a move likely to be established only after October [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been firm in his stance, emphasizing that decisions will depend on data and not providing any hints regarding the timing of interest rate cuts [1] - Despite acknowledging a slowdown in economic growth and facing significant dissent within the committee, Powell's clear position indicates that he will not ease policy until inflation data shows a clear and sustained decline to target levels [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment and inflation data suggest early signs of economic slowdown and cost transmission to consumer goods [1] - A key variable affecting the economic outlook is tariffs, with the actual implementation of new tariffs delayed until August 1, which will subsequently delay the price transmission process [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Powell is expected to require complete economic reports for August and September to assess whether the price increases triggered by tariffs are a one-time shock or indicative of more persistent long-term inflation expectations [1] - Consequently, the Federal Reserve is likely to lack sufficient data confidence to initiate a rate-cutting cycle before the October meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness in July, with non-farm payroll growth significantly below expectations, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][4]. Employment Data - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is higher than June's 14,000 but below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [3]. - The employment figures for May and June were revised downwards, with June's numbers adjusted down by 147,000 and May's by 125,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [3]. - The healthcare sector was the primary contributor to job growth in July, adding 55,000 jobs, while the federal government saw a decrease of 12,000 jobs [3]. Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, meeting expectations, while the year-over-year increase of 3.9% slightly exceeded forecasts [4]. Market Reaction - Following the employment report, futures traders increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 40% to 63% [4]. - Major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.32%, S&P 500 down 1.48%, and Nasdaq down 1.89% [1][2]. Economic Commentary - Experts noted that the employment report indicates a slow but steady cooling of the labor market, with hiring momentum weakening [4]. - The report was described as a "game-changing" employment report, highlighting a rapid deterioration in the labor market [4]. Political Commentary - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates and suggested that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell does not make significant cuts [5][6]. - Trump argued that lowering rates would stimulate economic growth and reduce debt repayment costs for the federal government and homebuyers [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts reflects a cautious approach, as the impact of tariffs has a lagging effect that has not yet fully manifested [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from approximately 65% before the meeting to around 45% afterward, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The Fed is expected to wait for two complete rounds of employment and inflation data before making further decisions, particularly regarding the transmission of commodity price pressures [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The outlook for rate cuts in 2023 has moderated, with expectations for 1-2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, and the first potential cut could occur in the fourth quarter [1] - Concerns about dollar credit risk and capital market performance may limit political pressures on the Fed, including potential calls for tariff adjustments or dismissing Fed Chair Powell [1]

Hot News - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Li Qiang emphasized focusing on the annual development goals, enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, and stimulating the endogenous driving force of economic development [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission's 2025 H1 situation briefing meeting stressed promoting the construction of a unified national market, reforming the tendering and bidding system, and promoting the healthy development of the private economy [3] - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce hoped that the EU would maintain market openness and provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises [3] - In July, affected by factors such as the traditional off - season in manufacturing and natural disasters, the PMI dropped to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indexes were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point [3] - US inflation data for June slightly exceeded expectations. The core PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, complicating the Fed's interest - rate cut path [4] Sector Performance Key Attention - Key sectors to focus on include coking coal, polysilicon, glass, soda ash, and alumina [5] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance shows that non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 27.86%, oilseeds 12.26%, non - ferrous metals 20.83%, soft commodities 2.67%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.40%, energy 3.42%, chemicals 11.76%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.83% [5] Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In terms of equities, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% daily, the SSE 50 fell 1.54%, the CSI 300 fell 1.82%, the CSI 500 fell 1.40%, the S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.60%, the German DAX fell 0.81%, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.02%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.05% [7] - For fixed - income products, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.17%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.08%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index fell 1.79%, WTI crude oil fell 1.11%, London spot gold rose 0.45%, LME copper fell 0.94%, and the Wind commodity index fell 0.58% [7] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.08%, and the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged [7]

Market Overview - Domestic futures main contracts showed a mixed trend with most contracts declining, including coking coal down over 3% and glass down over 2% [1] - Lithium carbonate increased nearly 2%, while coking coal, iron ore, and stainless steel saw slight gains [1] Commodity Performance - Coking coal (2601 M) decreased by 3.44% to 1138.5 [2] - Glass (2509 W) fell by 2.79% to 1114 [2] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (2509™) dropped by 1.78% to 3984 [2] - Para-xylene (2509 M) decreased by 1.72% to 6860 [2] - Canola meal (2509 M) fell by 1.65% to 2676 [2] - PTA (2509 W) decreased by 1.57% to 4766 [2] - Silver (2510 M) dropped by 1.47% to 8926 [2] - Other commodities like rubber and various oils also experienced minor declines [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations [3] - The overall PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market forecasts [3] - Chicago PMI for July was reported at 47.1, higher than the expected 42 and previous value of 40.4 [3] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September is at 61.8%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is at 38.2% [3] - By October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 46.8% and 50 basis points at 13.9% [3] - Overall, inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, leading investors to lower the Fed's rate cut expectations for September [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic and inflation data released last night were resilient, putting continuous pressure on precious metal prices. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the U.S. dollar index was at 100.01. The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and in line with the previous value. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The Chicago PMI in July was 47.1, significantly higher than the expected 42 and the previous value of 40.4 [2]. - Powell's stance in the interest rate meeting was hawkish. He believed that the subsequent monetary policy path depends on economic data, emphasizing the importance of "seizing the right timing." The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's easing policy after the meeting. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only in the October meeting. The Fed's monetary policy stance has turned hawkish, and precious metal prices will face strong short - term correction pressure. Given the uncertainty of subsequent employment data and the stances of key voting members, it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8662 - 9290 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Price Changes - Shanghai gold rose 0.12% to 770.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.37% to 8935.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.13% to 3344.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% to 36.78 dollars/ounce [2]. - Au(T + D) fell 0.38% to 766.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) fell 2.25% to 8960.00 yuan/kilogram. London gold fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Gold - Related Data - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.43% to 3342.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume fell 22.67% to 154,600 lots, the open interest rose 9.12% to 489,400 lots, and the inventory rose 0.42% to 1203 tons [6]. - LBMA gold: The closing price fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract fell 0.45% to 770.28 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 27.56% to 324,300 lots, the open interest rose 1.32% to 429,800 lots, the inventory rose 6.52% to 35.64 tons, and the settled funds flowed in by 0.86% to 52.966 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Silver - Related Data - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 1.04% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, the open interest rose 1.29% to 173,700 lots, and the inventory rose 0.17% to 15,714 tons [6]. - LBMA silver: The closing price fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 2.00% to 9008.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 65.29% to 1,394,000 lots, the open interest fell 4.58% to 797,400 lots, the inventory fell 0.01% to 1208.03 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 6.49% to 19.394 billion yuan [6]. 3.4 Other Market Data - The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.37%, and TIPS rose 1.02% to 1.98%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.08% to 100.0489, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545 [4]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.74% to 44,130.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6339.39, the Nasdaq Index fell 0.03% to 21,122.45, and the VIX Index rose 8.01% to 16.72. The London FTSE 100 fell 0.05% to 9132.81, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.02% to 41,069.82 [4]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spread Data (July 31, 2025) - Gold: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 3.41 yuan/gram (14.75 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.16 yuan/gram (4.98 dollars/ounce) [50]. - Silver: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 463.30 yuan/kilogram (2.00 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 461.74 yuan/kilogram (1.99 dollars/ounce) [50].

综合而言，通胀数据略超预期，投资者继续降低美联储九月降息预期，目前九月不降息概率已经超出降 息概率，短期黄金支撑力度有所减弱。 资料来源：Wind、新浪财经、金十数据、光大期货研究所 撰稿：吴爱华 从业资格：F3074355 投资咨询资格：Z0017696 来源：市场资讯 7月31日，COMEX黄金价格下跌0.31%至3342.30美元/盎司，沪金主连上涨0.12%至770.92元/克。 数据方面，美国6月核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.8%，略高于市场预期的0.29%和 2.7%；整体PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，也是高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。除此之外，美 国7月芝加哥PMI 47.1，预期42，前值40.4。 降息方面，美国总统表示任命鲍威尔为美联储主席是个错误。最新CME"美联储观察"数据显示，9月维 持利率不变的概率为61.8%，降息25个基点的概率为38.2%，到10月维持利率不变的概率为39.4%，累计 降息25个基点的概率为46.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为13.9%。 免责声明：文中观点、建议和结论仅供参考，报告中的资料来源于公开信息，相关分析和建 ...

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for maintaining interest rates despite calls for cuts, labeling him as ineffective and politically motivated [2] - The Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, citing uncertainty regarding tariffs' impact on inflation and the labor market [2] - Powell indicated that while inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, the labor market is close to full employment, suggesting the Fed is in a position to lower rates if economic conditions worsen [2] Group 2 - Powell noted that higher tariffs are beginning to reflect in some goods' prices, but their overall impact on economic activity and inflation is still uncertain [3] - Despite Trump's pressure for rate cuts, the Fed decided to pause, with the next meeting scheduled for mid-September, and recent inflation data reducing the likelihood of a rate cut [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department reported a 2.6% year-over-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with core PCE rising from 2.7% to 2.8%, moving further from the Fed's inflation target [3] Group 3 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 58.4% a week ago to 39.2% following the new inflation data [4] - The likelihood of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% increased to 60.8%, up from 39.2% a week prior [4]

美国国债收益率在通胀数据公布后跌幅收窄，10年期国债收益率最新下跌3个基点，报4.348%。 ...