Core Insights - The U.S. stock market, represented by the S&P 500, is experiencing a strong year with a 16% increase in 2025 despite economic uncertainties due to President Trump's tariffs [2][8] - A Federal Reserve study indicates that these tariffs will negatively impact economic growth, leading to increased unemployment and slower GDP growth [4][5] - The current valuation of the S&P 500 is at 22.4 times forward earnings, one of the highest in the past 40 years, raising concerns about future stock market performance [8] Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's research suggests that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by half a percentage point in 2025 and 2026, which could lead to slower corporate earnings growth [5][6] - Historical data shows a correlation between GDP growth and corporate earnings growth, indicating that slower GDP growth could adversely affect stock market performance [6][7] Market Valuation - The S&P 500's current valuation is concerning, as it has only reached similar levels during two other periods in the last 40 years, suggesting potential overvaluation [8] - Comparatively, between 2005 and 2014, nominal U.S. GDP rose by 43% while the S&P 500 achieved a total return of 110%, and between 2015 and 2024, nominal GDP rose by 67% with a total return of 243% for the S&P 500 [9]

美联储不是闲得慌才频繁降息，就业市场的警报早就响了。11月美国私营部门突然少了3.2万个岗位，这是近两年半最大跌幅；失业率从6月的4.1%爬到9月 的4.4%，年轻人找工作越来越难，连辞职换工作的人都跌到四年最低。可尴尬的是，通胀还在2.9%的高位晃悠，超市里的进口果汁涨了15%，家电卖场的日 系冰箱标价直接多了三位数。一边是饭碗要保，一边是钱包要护，降息成了没办法的办法——给企业减点利息，盼着他们多雇人；先扛过就业危机，再等关 税的影响慢慢退去。 三、内部吵成一锅粥 特朗普还要换掌门 这次降息连美联储自己人都没达成共识，12个投票委员里3个投了反对票：有人嫌25个基点不够，喊着要降50点救就业；有人怕通胀更难压，干脆主张按兵 不动。更乱的是白宫的插手，特朗普早就看鲍威尔不顺眼，今年刚复任就威胁要解他的职，最近还忙着见美联储主席候选人，放话说要找个"让利率低得 多"的人。白宫经济顾问哈西特跟着起哄，说"完全能降50点"。可美联储有自己的顾虑，利率已经从高位砍下来不少，再降下去，真碰到经济危机就没"子 弹"了，只能走一步看一步。 一、半年六次降息！鲍威尔特朗普当场互怼 四、全球跟着动起来 普通人的日子有变化 当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.5% and 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September 2023 and the sixth cut since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1][3]. Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee stated that the U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, but job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate increased in September, and inflation remains relatively high, with significant uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [5]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the current federal funds rate is within the neutral range and that further observation of economic conditions is warranted. He attributed the inflation exceeding the Fed's target mainly to tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [7]. - Powell also mentioned that the current rate cut magnitude is deemed sufficient, despite previous divisions among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariff policies on inflation and the potential for further cuts in December [7]. Group 2 - President Trump commented on the Fed's rate cut, stating that economic growth does not necessarily lead to inflation and that even if inflation occurs, it can be mitigated. He also expressed that the rate cut could have been larger [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the United States is facing one of its most dangerous moments since the Civil War, primarily due to internal issues rather than external challenges from countries like China and Russia [1] - Experts predict that the U.S. Supreme Court will make a final ruling on Trump's tariff case as early as this month, with potential implications for government stability [3][12] - The discussion surrounding Trump's tariffs focuses on procedural justice in U.S. law, emphasizing that the legality of the decision-making process is more critical than the merits of the tariffs themselves [5] Group 2 - Trump's tariffs were implemented under a policy of reciprocal tariffs, which raised significant global attention and faced legal challenges [3][10] - The U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to levy taxes, and Trump's unilateral tariff actions may violate this constitutional provision [5][10] - Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs has raised legal concerns, as it bypasses the necessary congressional approval [8][10] Group 3 - The International Trade Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, and the Federal Circuit Court upheld this ruling, reinforcing that the power to tax lies with Congress [12] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, it could lead to the cessation of his tariff policy, which he views as a cornerstone of his economic strategy [13] - Despite potential legal setbacks, the U.S. Treasury plans to continue implementing tariffs through other legal provisions, which may lead to further political and legal complications [15]

Core Viewpoint - Republican lawmakers are seeking further agricultural aid from Trump despite his previous allocation of $12 billion to assist farmers affected by trade policies [1] Group 1: Agricultural Sector Impact - Farmers are struggling to maintain minimum income levels due to Trump's tariff policies, which have negatively impacted their reliance on exports to international trade competitors [1] - Continuous low prices for agricultural products and high costs for essential inputs like fertilizers have forced farmers to tighten their budgets [1] Group 2: Equipment Manufacturers Concerns - Kip Edberg, a representative from the Equipment Manufacturers Association, expressed concerns that sustained high tariffs, especially on critical components not available domestically, could inadvertently harm farmers and ranchers while increasing costs for all Americans [1]

欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 责编丨李慧颖 此前，美联储官员就关税政策对通胀的影响以及是否在12月进一步降息存在分歧，但美国 就业市场数据恶化推高了降息预期。 来源：新华社 End 美联储年内连续第三次降息。 美国联邦储备委员会1 0日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调2 5个基点至3 . 5%至3.75%之间。 这 一 决 定 符 合 市 场 预 期 。 这 是 美 联 储 自 今 年 9 月 以 来 连 续 第 三 次 降 息 ， 幅 度 均 为 25 个 基 点，也是美联储自2 0 2 4年9月启动本轮降息周期以来的第六次降息。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在当天会后发表声明说，美国经济活动在温和扩张， 但新增就业放缓，失业率在9月升高，通胀依然在一定程度上处于高位，经济前景仍面临 较高不确定性，就业市场下行风险在近几月有所升高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and the sixth since September 2024, amidst concerns over economic uncertainty and rising inflation [2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 in favor of the rate cut, indicating a consensus on the need for monetary easing due to moderate economic expansion and rising unemployment [2]. - The statement highlighted that while economic activity is expanding, there are increasing risks to employment and a notable rise in inflation since the beginning of the year [2]. Economic Indicators - Employment growth has slowed down, and the unemployment rate has seen a slight increase, contributing to the Fed's decision to lower interest rates [2]. - The Fed acknowledged the high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, particularly concerning the labor market [2]. Market Reactions - Prior to the decision, there were mixed views among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariff policies on inflation and the potential for further rate cuts in December, driven by deteriorating employment data [3].

当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个 基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储继今年以来第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 特朗普：降息幅度太小，还能更大 对此，特朗普表示，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使出现通货膨胀也没关系，可以减缓通货膨胀。特朗 普还说，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 特朗普（资料图） 10日，美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动一直以温和的速 度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。经济前 景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调25个基点。 鲍威尔：美国关税政策导致通胀过高 美联储主席鲍威尔在10日的新闻发布会上表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，此举将有助于稳定 劳动力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导致 通胀过高。 10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就委员会降息发表讲话。 10日，该职务另一位候选人，白 ...

2． 大力宣传关税政策——特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州演讲中着重强调了他的关税政策 ，以及该政策给宾夕 法尼亚州带来的好处。他还吹嘘自己推动取消小费税和加班税的举措。 3． 再次抨击美联储——特朗普在演讲中再次抨击美联储，暗示若由前总统拜登任命的美联储理事的委 任状是由自动签字机签署的，他可能寻求将其他们免职。 4． 称赞打击贩毒船只——特朗普在演讲中提及了美国近期在加勒比海和东太平洋对疑似贩毒船只的打 击行动， 他直言不讳地称赞了此次行动："导弹把他们打得落花流水。" 5． 攻击索马里及索马里裔议员——特朗普称民主党众议员伊尔汗·奥马尔（2018年当选国会议员的首位 索马里裔美国人）"只会抱怨"，并表示他的政府"应该把她赶出"美国。他还称索马里"肮脏、污秽、令 人作呕、犯罪猖獗"，称其为"世界上最糟糕的国家"。 6． 批评欧洲因移民问题走向"衰落"——特朗普在接受Politico采访时称，由于移民问题，"大多数"欧洲 国家正在"衰落"。特朗普认为，移民有着不同的意识形态，这将使欧洲国家"变得更加虚弱，面目全 非"。 7． 终止拜登时代的学生贷款偿还计划——特朗普政府周二宣布正式结束拜登执政期间实施的一项重大 学生贷 ...

2025年黄金因避险资金涌入及美联储降息预期而飙升。 投资者预期明年将有两次以上降息。 地缘政治冲突、关税政策及央行购金亦是推手。 上涨趋势或将延续至2026年，目标直指5000美元整数关口。 2025年黄金涨幅突破50% 在ICMarkets重点关注的主要资产中，黄金成为2025年表现最亮眼的品种，年内累计涨幅约达60%。而标普500指数同期涨幅约为17%。 2025年贵金属迎来多重利好，但这引发关键疑问：其强劲涨势是否仍有足够动能延续？今年黄金屡创新高，主要受避险资金流入推动，且市场普遍预期美联 储可能需要以激进步伐重启降息周期。 美联储降息预期降低黄金的机会成本 美联储在观望大半年后于九月启动降息周期，当月降息25个基点，十月再度实施同等幅度降息。 尽管10月会议后市场对12月连续第三次降息的预期一度低迷，但因美国政府停摆延迟的经济数据暴露的疲软态势，加上包括纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的关 键决策者释放的鸽派信号，使降息概率攀升至约85%。展望2026年，市场仍预期将有约60个基点的额外宽松政策，相当于两次25个基点的降息，而第三次降 息的概率则悬而未决。 地缘政治冲突与关税政策推动避险需求 地缘政治紧张 ...