Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Musk and Trump centers around the "Big and Beautiful Act," which has passed a procedural vote and is close to becoming law, with Musk vehemently opposing it and threatening to form a new political party if it passes [1][3][5]. Group 1: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful Act" passed with a narrow margin of 51 votes in favor and 49 against, moving closer to becoming law [3]. - The act includes significant budget cuts, such as a $4 trillion tax reduction over the next decade, while also raising the estate and gift tax exemption limits [5][7]. - The act's passage is expected to exacerbate the already dire fiscal situation in the U.S., with potential debt growth exceeding initial estimates [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The act is projected to cut nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid, making it harder for low-income families to access healthcare [7]. - Food assistance program age limits have been raised, increasing food insecurity among low-income groups [7]. - The act plans to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, adding to the current national debt of over $37 trillion, with annual interest payments already exceeding $1.3 trillion [8]. Group 3: Musk's Position and Actions - Musk has previously advocated for government spending cuts and has implemented measures that saved approximately $130 billion in federal spending during his tenure [11]. - His opposition to the "Big and Beautiful Act" stems from a belief that it will lead the country deeper into debt, contradicting his earlier efforts to streamline government expenditures [10][11]. - Musk's warnings about the U.S. nearing bankruptcy highlight his concerns regarding the fiscal direction of the country under current policies [10]. Group 4: Trump and Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that timely action could save the U.S. trillions in interest payments [13][15]. - The ongoing tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve reflects a broader struggle over economic policy, with Trump pushing for lower rates while Powell maintains an independent stance based on economic data [15][18]. - The situation illustrates a complex interplay between legislative actions and monetary policy, with potential implications for the U.S. economy moving forward [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, while ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts rose slightly. The capital market became looser. After the cross - quarter, the capital is expected to remain loose, but it's not enough to break the current low - volatility state. The upcoming reduction in treasury bond issuance also boosts short - term market sentiment, and the bond market has upward potential [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The table shows the current prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, daily position changes, and CTD bonds of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. For example, the T2509 contract had a current price of 109.105, a price change of 0.00%, a trading volume of 64,900, an open interest of 206,020, and a daily position change of - 499 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. The capital market became looser, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - type institutions down by over 4bp to 1.31%, and the seven - day repurchase rate down by over 3bp [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On July 3, the central bank conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 452.1 billion yuan [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS main basis was - 0.0293, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TF main basis was 0.0001, the T main basis was 0.16671, and the TL main basis was 0.2747, all indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which were bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The TF main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The T main contract had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5] 8. Expectation Analysis - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded. In May, the financial data was reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans were significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its second - quarter regular meeting and suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The capital market remained loose [5]

金十数据7月4日讯，高盛经济学家们维持对欧洲和英国收益率的预测。预测，今年晚些时候，德国国债 收益率将达到2.80%，2026年将超过3%，因为围绕贸易不确定性的短期风险最终将让位于德国财政扩张 带来的上行风险。与此同时，英国央行的路径不太可能受到国家风险溢价上升的影响，因为前端多头头 寸仍受到相对较好的保护。 高盛经济学家们维持对欧洲和英国收益率的预测 ...

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.02% at 121.130, the 10-year main contract flat at 109.105, the 5-year main contract up 0.01% at 106.255, and the 2-year main contract up 0.01% at 102.514 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.8485%, and the 10-year government development bond yield also rising by 0.35 basis points to 1.7150% [1] - The 2-year government bond yield decreased by 0.25 basis points to 1.3575%, while the 3-year and 5-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point and 0.55 basis points respectively [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 572 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan [2] - The funding environment appears more relaxed, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 4 basis points to around 1.31%, and 7-day pledged repo rates down over 3 basis points to approximately 1.46% [2] - The issuance scale of government bonds in July is slightly lower, but the maturity of certificates of deposit is significant, and July is a month with high tax payments, which may cause fluctuations in the funding environment [2] Operational Recommendations - With funding rates continuing to decline, bond futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations with most varieties slightly rising, supported by a relaxed funding environment [3] - The short-term strategy suggests accumulating long positions during adjustments, while being cautious of profit-taking near previous highs, and monitoring economic data and funding trends [3] - The curve strategy may continue to focus on steepening opportunities, while the interest rate risk (IRR) is gradually increasing, suggesting a focus on positive spread strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera has shown a slight increase in value and liquidity, indicating a stable investment environment with potential for future growth as new capital flows into the market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 4, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera has increased by 0.06%, with a latest price of 112.94 yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.42% [3]. - The ETF's net inflow reached 14.67 million yuan recently, with a total of 240 million yuan in net inflows over the last five trading days [4]. - The ETF has achieved a 13.97% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 4th out of 410 in the index bond fund category [4]. Group 2: Trading and Liquidity - The trading volume for the ETF was 81.78 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.08% [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 2.264 billion yuan [3]. - The financing net purchase amount was 4.5149 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 33.4793 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4]. Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.039% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year Treasury Index, which reflects the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 制造业 PMI 数据边际向好，短期 内降息概率不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。随着税期因素逐渐消退，市场流动性由 6 月末的紧张状 态转向宽松状态，近期央行开始公开市场净回笼流动性，以避免资金在金融系统内空转。从整体宏观 环境来看，下半年仍然需要偏宽松的货币环境来托底需求以及稳定预期，内需内生性增长动能不足， 外需收到关税因素的冲击，国债期货 ...

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, heavily promoted by President Trump, was passed in the House of Representatives after a lengthy voting process [1][4] - The bill was approved in the Senate with a narrow margin of 51-50, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote [2][4] - The legislation aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade [6][7] Legislative Process - The bill faced significant challenges in both the House and Senate, with debates and procedural votes extending over several days [4][5] - In the House, the bill passed with a slim margin of 219 votes in favor to 213 against, despite opposition from some Republican members [4][5] - The Senate's voting process was marked by a record-long debate, including a forced reading of the entire bill text [4][6] Financial Implications - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to an average annual deficit of 7% and an increase in national debt by over $3.3 trillion by fiscal year 2034 [7][10] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will result in a significant income disparity, with the wealthiest households seeing an increase in income while the poorest will experience a decrease [8][9] Political Dynamics - The passage of the bill highlights the deep polarization within U.S. politics, with significant dissent among Republican factions and unified opposition from Democrats [9] - The bill is expected to be a focal point in the upcoming midterm elections, with potential repercussions for Republican control of Congress [9] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will exacerbate the already growing U.S. debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion [10] - The dollar has shown signs of weakness, recording its worst performance in decades, which may be linked to the anticipated economic impacts of the new legislation [10]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questions the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rates, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the benchmark rate is too high [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - Bessent believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has deviated in its judgment regarding interest rates [1] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [1] - Bessent indicates that if the Fed does not lower rates soon, the potential cut in September could be larger [1][2] Group 2: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - Bessent did not directly respond to calls for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's resignation but emphasized the need for the Fed to control spending like others [3] - There are strong candidates being considered for Powell's successor, with speculation that Trump may announce a replacement before September or October [3] - Potential candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Larry Kudlow, and Bessent himself, among others [3] Group 3: Rate Expectations and Debt Issuance - Bessent suggests that the Fed officials' rate expectations may be influenced by their appointment backgrounds, noting significant differences in the dot plot between Trump-appointed and non-Trump-appointed members [4] - The Treasury Department plans to significantly increase short-term debt issuance to replenish cash reserves following the increase in the federal debt ceiling [5] - Bessent mentions that the debt management process is systematic and orderly, but they will consider the current interest rate environment in future debt issuance strategies [5][6]

30年期英债收益率跌8.1个基点，5.338%，16:16刷新日低至5.299%；50年期英债收益率跌8.3个基点，报 4.684%，16:16跌至4.649%刷新日低。 2/10年期英债收益率利差跌3.126个基点，报+69.779个基点。 周四（7月3日）欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率下跌7.1个基点，报4.542%，"跳空低开"后全天处于 下跌状态，整体交投于4.603%-4.512%区间，北京时间20:30发布美国非农就业报告带来大约4个基点的 升幅。 两年期英债收益率跌4.1个基点，报3.841%，16:15刷新日低至3.808%，随后低位震荡——非农就业报告 带来超过3个基点的回升幅度。 ...

德国商业银行策略师Christoph Rieger表示，近年已大幅收窄的意大利和法国10年期国债利差将抹平。意 大利利差已受益于德国财政计划，德国的计划提振了对欧元区深化融合的憧憬。尽管如此，德国以外地 区的债务可持续性可能面临挑战，因为该地区明年债券发行量增加，在债券市场环境不再宽松之际利差 扩大。Rieger认为，鉴于法国"充满挑战"的财政和政治背景，法国国债"尤其容易受到影响"。意大利10 年期国债收益率目前比法国高出17个基点，低于一年前逾70个基点的水平。 ...