每周思考总第633期 《A股短期决定变量转为 海外地缘冲突 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至6 月15日累计收益3.97%。 主板择时观点： 国内外基本面延续走弱符合康波萧条期基本面特征，伊以冲突升级也在康波萧条期 基本预判内，唯独国内机构资金不惧利空继续流入的状态超预期，密切关注上述多空合力，短期遵循 客观模型信号维持低仓位回避不变； 中小市值板块择时观点： 板块于5月中旬开启相对主板的补涨行情，也是本轮机构资金流入的直接受 益者，但本次中东地缘冲突下同步走弱，建议参照主板节奏同样维持 低仓位 回避不变，风格维持主 板占优； 短期动量（趋势）模型建议关注行业：石油石化。 基本面上，中美经济数据均不理想。 国内方面， 上周中国官方陆续披露了进出口、物价、银行 货币供应等5月经济运行数据，整体均延续走弱 ，其中出口再度走弱大幅低于市场预期，尤其是对美 出口同比跌幅继续加大与此前市场消息面感受出入最大，但符合我们长波周期下的基本预判，国内物 价方面也延续了双降格局，凸显消费疲弱趋势仍在延续中，银行货币方方面看似M1同比回升但主要 源于去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have triggered a risk-off sentiment in global capital markets, impacting the A-share market, which experienced a sudden decline on June 13, 2025 [2][20]. Market Reaction - On June 13, sectors such as oil, gold, and military industries saw gains, disrupting the upward momentum of other sectors like finance, new consumption, gaming, and media [4][10]. - The market's trading tone on the following Monday will depend on whether the conflict escalates or de-escalates, with historical patterns suggesting potential outcomes [4][20]. Historical Context - A comparison is drawn to the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, where the A-share market reacted similarly to geopolitical tensions, with a notable decline followed by a brief recovery [6][8]. - On February 24, 2022, the A-share market saw a significant drop, with the ChiNext index falling by 2.11% as panic set in [6][8]. Sector Performance - In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sectors such as oil service and precious metals initially surged before experiencing a pullback, while military-related sectors peaked and then declined [10][18]. - The data shows that on February 24, 2022, oil service engineering and precious metals sectors rose by 7.13% and 7.06%, respectively, while consumer and technology sectors faced declines [9][11]. Investment Trends - The article identifies three main trends in the A-share market during geopolitical conflicts: 1. Risk-off sentiment leads to capital flowing into defensive sectors like oil, gold, and military [15][16]. 2. A quick rebound occurs within a week as the market digests negative news [17]. 3. Significant sector differentiation, with energy and military sectors performing well while consumer and tech sectors decline due to reduced risk appetite [18][19]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may not replicate the downturn seen in March-April 2022, as the market is expected to return to its original rhythm over time [20][21]. - The upcoming week will see significant economic data releases, including industrial production and fixed asset investment reports, which could influence market sentiment [27][28].

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged, nearing $3432 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven amid rising uncertainties, with the market reacting sensitively to any news [3][4] - There is a potential for short-term price corrections, and caution is advised against chasing high prices [3] Group 2: Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices have increased by 13%, approaching the $70 mark, primarily due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the security of oil supply routes [3][4] - The OPEC+ production cuts and underperformance of U.S. shale oil are contributing to a widening supply-demand gap, making price increases likely [3][4] - If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could potentially spike to $120, although this scenario is considered unlikely [3] Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, including geopolitical conflicts, high inflation, and trade tensions, which could impact market stability [4][5] - Key signals to monitor for long-term investors include any signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the sustainability of OPEC+ production agreements [4] - Long-term asset performance will ultimately depend on cash flow generation rather than short-term market sentiment [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of safety and peace as the foundation for business activities, suggesting that without these elements, conducting business becomes challenging [2] - It discusses the geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia and their potential long-term impacts on markets, particularly highlighting that conflicts can disrupt peace and development, which were previously the global norms [3][4] - The narrative shifts to Indonesia's industrialization and cultural understanding, indicating that knowing a country's myths and history can provide deeper insights into its societal values and business practices [5][6] Group 2 - The article introduces the myth of Sangkuriang, illustrating the cultural significance of family and authority in Indonesian society, which is crucial for understanding local business dynamics [12][17] - It also presents the myth of Tantu Pagelaran, explaining the origins of Java Island and the role of divine intervention in establishing order, reflecting the importance of structured governance in the region [18][20] - The story of Gajah Mada highlights the conflict between personal ambition and collective values, showcasing the historical context of power dynamics in Indonesia, which can inform current business strategies and leadership approaches [24][35]

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline on June 13, 2025, with major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.75%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.10%, and ChiNext Index down 1.13% [1] - Sectors such as mining, precious metals, and aerospace showed gains, while beauty care, cultural media, and bioproducts faced losses [1] Oil Market Insights - According to Xinda Securities, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around $70 per barrel for the year, with a high-low-high-low trend anticipated across the four quarters [2] - The potential for oil price increases is linked to risks in the Iranian region, while downward risks are associated with Saudi Arabia [2] - Iran's oil supply accounts for 3% to 4% of global supply, and escalating conflicts could threaten the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2] Gold Market Analysis - Minsheng Securities highlighted that global monetary expansion and rising geopolitical tensions are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The ongoing U.S. interest rate cut cycle is expected to support further increases in gold prices, indicating a bullish trend in the gold market [3] Military Trade Dynamics - Zhongtai Securities noted that recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a reassessment of military trade logic, suggesting significant growth potential in military exports [3] - China's military trade currently represents 5.9% of the global market, which is considerably lower than the U.S. at 43% and Russia at 9.6%, indicating room for expansion [3]

地缘冲突加速，为周末谈判前景增添疑云，黄金能否成为终将升起的烈阳？金十研究员高阳正在直播分 析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间13日凌晨，以色列防长卡茨称，以色列对伊朗发动了空袭。卡茨称，在对伊朗发动先发制人的打击之后，预计不久 后以色列将遭受导弹和无人机袭击。卡茨还表示，由于以色列对伊朗发动袭击，他已宣布以色列全国进入紧急状态。 地缘冲突引发原油价格飙升！ 6月13日早间，国际油价扩大涨幅，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至8.16%，报72.08美元/桶；布伦特原油期货涨至8.09%，报74.97美元/桶。 国内商品期货开盘，燃料油涨停，涨幅8.99%，SC原油、低硫燃料油涨超8%，逼近涨停，沥青涨近4%。 | 避险资产黄金拉升，伦敦金现、COMEX黄金均涨近1%，分别报3418.75美元/盎司、3434.80美元/盎司。 | | --- | 美股股指期货跳水，纳指期货现跌1.57%，标普500指数期货跌1.38%，道指期货跌1.23%。 此外，以空军正在对伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事设施相关的目标发动空袭，并且将此次行动命名为"狮子的力量"。以军称，伊朗拥有足够的浓缩 铀，可以在几天内制造出多枚炸弹，因此需要采取行动应对这一"迫在眉睫的威胁"。 据《中国石油石化》综合报道，倘若以色列空袭伊朗设施，或 ...

Group 1 - Israel's Defense Minister Katz announced that Israel has launched airstrikes against Iran, anticipating missile and drone attacks in response [2][6] - The Israeli military confirmed airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites, naming the operation "Lion's Strength" [8] - Iran's military chief was reportedly assassinated, although this has not been officially confirmed [4] Group 2 - Following the airstrikes, Israel declared a national state of emergency [5][6] - Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport suspended all flights as a precautionary measure [7] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the U.S. did not participate in the strikes and emphasized the protection of U.S. military personnel in the region [10][11] Group 3 - Oil prices surged significantly due to the geopolitical tensions, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 8.16% to $72.08 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 8.09% to $74.97 per barrel [14][15] - Analysts predict that if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks, oil prices could soar to $120 per barrel or higher [18] - The market outlook remains influenced by geopolitical instability, with concerns over supply disruptions due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, along with lower - than - expected US CPI data, have led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to rise. Silver prices initially declined but then rebounded slightly following gold prices. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and interest rate cut expectations [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US CPI data was lower than expected, and the Middle East situation was tense. The US dollar index fell by 0.41% to 98.64, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 4.95 basis points to 4.420%. COMEX gold futures rose 0.98% to $3376.00 per ounce. The Shanghai gold price first rose sharply and then fell, and finally rebounded due to the Middle East situation. The premium of Shanghai gold remained around 3 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: Affected by the same factors as gold, the silver price initially declined and then rebounded slightly. COMEX silver futures fell 0.77% to $36.36 per ounce. The Shanghai silver premium remained around 436 yuan/kg [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 3.13, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures remained unchanged at 17,817 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the long positions of the main force increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 14, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 36,100 kilograms to 1,229,816 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the long positions of the main force increased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Economic data to be released include the US May PPI, UK April GDP. There will also be intensive speeches by ECB members and a 2026 fiscal year budget hearing in the US Senate Finance Committee. Trump's "weakening confidence" in the Iran nuclear negotiations and the reduction of the US embassy scale in Iraq have further intensified the tense situation in the Middle East [4]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation was neutral. The basis was neutral, the inventory was bearish, the technical chart was bullish, and the main position was bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation was neutral. The basis was neutral, the inventory change was neutral, the technical chart was bullish, and the main position was bullish [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main force increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.98%, the short positions increased by 1.20%, and the net position increased by 0.85% [5][29]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main force decreased slightly. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.69%, the short positions decreased by 0.84%, and the net position decreased by 0.19% [32]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position showed an oscillating increase, and the silver ETF position also increased oscillatingly and was higher than the same period in the previous two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were still at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were higher than the same period last year, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [5][39][41].

Report Title - The report is titled "LPG: Geopolitical Conflict Escalates, Focus on Extreme Risks" [1] Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] LPG Fundamental Data Futures Prices and Changes - PG2507 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,130 with a daily increase of 0.27%, and a night - session closing price of 4,133 with a night - session increase of 0.07% [2] - PG2508 had a yesterday's closing price of 4,013 with a daily increase of 0.25%, and a night - session closing price of 4,020 with a night - session increase of 0.17% [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - PG2507 had a yesterday's trading volume of 46,020, a decrease of 29,278 from the previous day, and an open interest of 50,410, a decrease of 1,934 from the previous day [2] - PG2508 had a yesterday's trading volume of 12,904, a decrease of 3,901 from the previous day, and an open interest of 48,041, an increase of 3,457 from the previous day [2] Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 500 yesterday, up from 461 the day before [2] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 590 yesterday, up from 561 the day before [2] Industrial Chain Price Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 63.0%, down from 63.3% last week [2] - The MTBE operating rate this week was 54.7%, up from 54.2% last week [2] - The alkylation operating rate this week was 48.2%, up from 45.7% last week [2] Market Trends - The LPG trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7] Market News Saudi CP Expectations - On June 10, 2025, the expected July Saudi CP for propane was 580 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton from the previous day; for butane, it was 550 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton [10] - The expected August Saudi CP for propane was 563 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton from the previous day; for butane, it was 533 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton [10] PDH Plant Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies, including Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., and others, have PDH plant maintenance plans with various start and end times, some of which are still undetermined [8]