早上好，先来关注下金银。 2日夜盘，内盘白银期货延续午盘的暴跌态势。沪银期货10个合约开盘后不久全部跌停。 | 沪银 2602 | 21292 | -20.00% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 ag2602 | | | | 沪银 2603 | 21256 | -20.00% | | 期货 ag2603 | | | | 沪银 2604 | 20848 | - 19.04% | | 期货 ag2604 | | | | 沪银 2605 | 20535 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2605 | | | | 沪银 2606 | 20232 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2606 | | | | 沪银 2607 | 19931 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2607 | | | | 沪银 2608 | 19908 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2608 | | | | 沪银 2609 | 19845 | - 19.00% | | 期货 ag2609 | | | | 沪银 2610 | 19678 | -19.00% | | 期货 ag2610 | | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2603主力合约日内大幅跌落，跟随市场风险偏好回落，也跟随能源板块悲观情绪 释放。收盘价3299，较昨日收盘价大跌4.87%%，盘中最高触及3467，最低3281。06远月合约涨幅 4.95%。 【2】现货基本面：供应端：截止至1月30日当周，国内炼厂产量45.6万吨，环比下跌4%。需求端：大 样本企业销售量34.12万吨，环比下跌6%。库存端：社库+厂库累计76万吨，环比下跌4%。累库速度较 上周2%有所放缓。利润端：不扣除消费税抵扣的话，生产毛利有将近34元/吨，环比上周近110元/吨回 落。 上周受期货盘面影响，平稳的现货市场同步走强，高端价格出现破位上行，低端价格托底沥青底部。个 别炼厂提高现货报价，市场低价资源逐渐减少，推涨沥青现货重心上移，炼厂挺价情绪相对高涨。但实 际现货需求来看，开工率季节性下行依旧制约基本面，炼厂报价底气主要来源于期货盘面的情绪渲染。 【3】短期展望：今日沥青大幅跌落，回吐了之前大部分地缘升级产生的溢价，其扰动因素仍在于地缘 层面，特朗普或考虑与伊朗达成协议， ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, with various factors contributing to the volatility in the market, including geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics [4][5][20]. Market Dynamics - On Monday, oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $62.14 per barrel, down $3.07 or 4.71%, and Brent crude oil futures at $66.30, down $3.02 or 4.36% [6][22]. - The decline in oil prices was attributed to a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, and a rise in global oil inventories as supply concerns diminished [5][21]. Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data indicated a rebound in global oil inventories, with the impact of North American cold weather subsiding and production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field resuming [5][21]. - The market is expected to remain in a cautious wait-and-see mode as investors anticipate the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could further influence oil prices [21]. Recent Developments - OPEC+ has been monitoring compliance with production quotas, with November's production reported at 37.625 million barrels per day, which is 505,000 barrels below target levels [23]. - The European natural gas futures market saw a significant drop of over 12%, attributed to warmer weather forecasts and improved LNG supply, alleviating short-term supply concerns [24][26]. Price Trends - The European natural gas price fell to approximately €34.3 per megawatt-hour, down from a seven-month high of €40 per megawatt-hour [25][29]. - Despite the recent price drops, European gas storage levels remain low at around 41.1%, indicating ongoing supply vulnerabilities [29].

来源：环球 让我们来正面回答关于英国人是否应该亲自去中国旅游的问题。中国是当今世界最重要的国家之一，拥 有14亿多人口，幅员辽阔，是延续数千年的文明古国，文化底蕴与历史积淀举世罕见。在中国，有太多 值得探索与体验的事物：丰富多样的地方美食、壮丽秀美的自然风光、举世闻名的世界奇迹、上海等现 代化大都市，甚至还有迪士尼乐园。面对这一切，谁不会心生赞叹与欣赏之情？这些不需要带有任何地 缘政治色彩。 毋庸讳言，近年来在某些西方媒体连篇累牍的负面渲染下，一些英国人对中国的认知已经故步自封。但 随着将来入境规定的调整，改变的契机已然出现。英中关系不必建立在地缘政治联姻或意识形态结盟之 上，而应立足于务实精神、常识与理性。 中国人民对英国及其文化持友好态度——只需看看北京环球影城中身着霍格沃茨长袍、热衷哈利·波特 主题的年轻人便可见一斑。我们期待两国在贸易、旅行与人文交流方面不断深化，也希望部分英国民众 不再任由右翼小报为其灌输对华刻板印象。（作者汤姆·福迪是英国知名政治和国际关系分析师） 英中关系为欧洲各国提供了一种可能性：在新的地缘政治格局中，英国及欧洲其他国家可以战略性地思 考该如何行事。（作者凯瑞·布朗是伦敦国王学 ...

这哪里是商业纠纷？这分明是一场披着司法外衣的 "明抢"！ 01、巴拿马港口被夺！李嘉诚到底亏了多少？ 王爷说财经讯：你敢信吗？ 就在刚刚过去的这个周末，全球航运圈炸了个惊天大雷！ 那个在巴拿马运河两端扼守"咽喉"近30年的香港 长和集团，被一脚踢出局了！巴拿马最高法院一纸判决，直接把李嘉诚家族经营了29年的 巴尔博亚港 和克里斯托瓦尔港，判给了"违宪无效"。 什么情况？前脚长和还在跟美国贝莱德谈228亿美元的大买卖，后脚巴拿马法院就光速裁定 合同作废，甚至连给长和辩解的机会都不留。 更绝的是，判决不到24小时，美国的"亲儿子"马士基就已经在门口排队等着" 临时接管"了。 别听那些财经小编只算账面资产，咱们来算笔细账。 首先是 直接资产蒸发。 长和原本计划把全球43个港口打包卖给贝莱德，估值228亿美元，其中巴拿马这两个港是核心资产。 现在合同一废，这笔巨款直接打水漂。 长和股价开盘直接暴跌近5%，市值瞬间蒸发百亿港币。 其次是 沉没成本。 从1997年拿下特许经营权开始，李嘉诚往这两个港砸了真金白银的18亿美元搞基建、买设备。 29年啊，就是养个动物都有感情了，何况是把两个亏损老港盘成了全球物流枢纽？现在说没 ...

2026.02.02 本文字数：3122，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 梁相宜 黄晶晶 袁玉立 今年中国春节来得晚，给足了欧洲国家领导人扎堆来华的时间。从最早的马克龙，到刚刚离开中国的斯 塔默，再到已吹风2月底将访华的德国总理默茨，短短两个月时间，欧洲E3国家领导人，将集中完成中 国之旅，切莫说这中间还穿插着韩国总统、芬兰总理、加拿大总理。而这一不同于以往的局面到底意味 着什么？《首席对策》专访北京外国语大学区域与全球治理高等研究院教授崔洪建，带来深入解读。 以下为访谈实录： 西方政要集中访华主要是两方面诉求 受地缘政治变化刺激 西方转向更可靠的合作伙伴 第一财经：崔老师好，我们看到年前中国的农历新年之前，欧洲政要，包括加拿大的总理卡尼，扎堆访 华，德国总理默茨也会在2月底访华，他们的访华，直接诉求是什么？ 崔洪建：2026年开年以来，应该说西方国家的政要接踵访华，我觉得他们主要的诉求有两个方面：一个 是自身的经济发展和改善民生的需求。因为近些年来一些西方国家追随美国的政策，就是对中国的经济 搞所谓的去风险、降依赖的一些政策。但是搞了这一段时间，我们可以看到，其实一方面这些政策在推 进过程中很困难，我 ...

Core Viewpoint - The four oil LOFs managed by E Fund, Jiashi Fund, Huashan Fund, and Guangfa Fund all experienced a trading halt on February 2, with significant price drops following their resumption of trading, indicating volatility in the oil market driven by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance - All four oil LOFs, including Huashan's and Guangfa's, hit the trading limit down on their resumption day, with significant declines observed [1][5]. - The specific price changes for the funds included a drop of 10.00% for E Fund's oil LOF, 10.03% for Jiashi's oil LOF, 10.02% for Huashan's oil LOF, and 10.01% for Guangfa's oil LOF [2][3]. - The funds had previously issued warnings about significant premiums in their secondary market trading prices, advising investors to be cautious of potential losses from high premium purchases [2][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil futures fell below $67 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures dropped below $63, with both experiencing daily declines exceeding 3% [3][8]. - The volatility in oil prices is attributed to sudden shifts in geopolitical expectations, particularly concerning U.S.-Iran relations, which had previously driven prices to six-month highs [3][8]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a supply surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day [4][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the oil market may continue to experience volatility in the short term, with the potential for further price increases if geopolitical tensions escalate [4][9]. - The balance of supply and demand remains loose, indicating that much of the geopolitical risk premium has already been priced in, but any escalation in conflict could lead to upward pressure on oil prices [4][9].

作者 | 第一财经 梁相宜 黄晶晶 袁玉立 今年中国春节来得晚，给足了欧洲国家领导人扎堆来华的时间。从最早的马克龙，到刚刚离开中国的斯塔默，再到已吹风2月底将访华的德国总理默 茨，短短两个月时间，欧洲E3国家领导人，将集中完成中国之旅，切莫说这中间还穿插着韩国总统、芬兰总理、加拿大总理。而这一不同于以往的局面 到底意味着什么？《首席对策》专访北京外国语大学区域与全球治理高等研究院教授崔洪建，带来深入解读。 2026.02. 02 本文字数：3122，阅读时长大约5分钟 以下为访谈实录： 以它稳定的表现、负责任的姿态，展现出了安全发展上负责任大国的形象。 所以我想一方面是经济发展、经济合作的诉求，再一个来自于地缘政治的变化，给他们带来的刺激和影响，让他们不约而同地选择了要把中国作为一个 长期的保持对话和合作的可靠伙伴。 从西方国家内心来说 他们并不希望离开舒适区 美国触动盟友国家底线 西方国家幻想被打破 西方国家加强与中国的对话交流是大势所趋 西方政要集中访华主要是两方面诉求 受地缘政治变化刺激 西方转向更可靠的合作伙伴 第一财经： 崔老师好，我们看到年前中国的农历新年之前，欧洲政要，包括加拿大的总理卡尼，扎堆 ...

除了宏观政策面的风向突变，交易层面的因素也放大了波动。在1月份价格飙升至历史高位的过程中， 黄金的相对强弱指数（RSI）等技术指标已进入严重超买区间，积累了巨大的获利了结压力。早期涌入 的投机资金与高杠杆交易盘在价格转向时集中平仓，引发了连锁式的技术性抛售。其中，白银因市场规 模相对较小、金融与工业属性交织且投机资金参与度更高，其价格波动较黄金更为剧烈。 针对后市走向，光大期货认为，贵金属价格剧烈调整是对前期极端超买与过度拥挤交易的一次"挤泡沫 和降杠杆"式的强制性清算，但支撑贵金属的长期核心变量（如美元信用体系重构、去美元化储备趋 势、地缘政治裂痕常态化）并未发生逆转，长期驱动逻辑依然完整。进入2月，市场将更加关注宏观、 政策信号与地缘事件驱动寻求贵金属的支撑点，波动率仍将维持高位，但各品种将走向分化。 从长周期来看，国联期货表示，贵金属整体趋势依然稳定。在全球秩序重构大势不可逆、地缘政治仍处 于高度不确定性、全球信用货币体系重构（美元信用松动）的长期宏观趋势背景下，黄金作为重要储备 资产，在避险、货币对冲及抗通胀的配置需求支持下，仍将维持强势格局。而白银在全球战略资产储备 需求升温、结构性供需缺口长期存在 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated February 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: Contract Data Contract Price and Volume - EC2602: Yesterday's close was 1716.7, down 0.05%, with a basis of 142.6, volume of 453, and open interest of 2551, down 261 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's close was 1227.0, down 1.82%, with a basis of 632.3, volume of 25237, and open interest of 35881, down 3788 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's close was 1542.8, down 2.11%, with a basis of 316.5, volume of 5606, and open interest of 12303, up 997 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's close was 1607.0, down 2.33%, with a basis of 252.3, volume of 694, and open interest of 1594, down 72 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's close was 1122.5, down 2.49%, with a basis of 736.8, volume of 2674, and open interest of 8134, down 799 [2] Month - Spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 489.7, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of 36.8 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's spread was - 315.8, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of 68.4 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot (European Line) "ટરનાટ" index on January 26, 2026 was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 30, 2026 was $1418/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations Short - Term Market - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk February quotes, and expected March rush shipments may prevent short - term price drops [3] Near - Month Contracts - For the 04 contract, shorting should be done with caution. Watch for significant premiums. Pay attention to PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] Far - Month Contracts - Short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are hard to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. Operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - Downstream is booking February 2 (Week 6 - 7) cabins. Ships are receiving good cargo, but the pressure to attract cargo is increasing, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships during the Spring Festival [4] - The price center in Week 7 is $2140, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures. Maersk's Week 8 - 9 quotes are $1950 (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies are also keeping their quotes unchanged for now [4] Group 6: News and Geopolitical Situation Military Exercise News - On February 1, Iranian officials said media reports about an Iranian Revolutionary Guard military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and no official statement had been issued [5] Diplomatic Negotiation News - On February 2, the US signaled a willingness to negotiate with Iran, and a meeting may be held in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have a willingness to negotiate, there are serious differences, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [5][6]