订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 WTI原油 布伦特原油 金十数据6月20日讯，交易员和分析师仍在密切关注霍尔木兹海峡和伊朗的行动，在未来几周特朗普做 出最终决定之前，地缘政治的不确定性继续推动原油市场的看涨情绪。由于特朗普推迟就打击伊朗做出 决定，缓解了人们对局势立即升级的担忧，油价保持稳定。WTI原油维持在74美元附近，布伦特原油价 格接近79美元，市场仍在考虑中东紧张局势加剧带来的风险溢价。此前美国白宫就伊朗问题表示，特朗 普将在两周内决定是否攻击伊朗。 特朗普推迟就打击伊朗作出决定，缓解了局势升级担忧 ...

股指早报 政策侧重顶层设计，A 股仍需震荡整固 2025 年 6 月 19 日 股指期货早报 2025.6.19 报告摘要： 海外方面，今日凌晨，美联储公布 6 月议息决议维持利率不变， 对今年预期依旧降息两次，但从点阵图来看，预期今年降息 2 次的人 数变得少，相比 3 月美联储官员整体边际转鹰。对经济展望来看，美 联储对今年 GDP 预估下调至 1.4%，将通胀预期上调至 3%。这也意味 美联储对美经济陷入滞涨的担忧上升。之后美联储主席鲍威尔在发言 中罕见提及关税的负面影响。综合来看，此次美联储释放的信号只想 后续美联储不会贸然行动，更多会是数据追踪来决策后续货币政策。 另外中东地区地缘政治继续动荡。从隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数收 涨，美债收益率先跌后涨，10 年期美债收益率最终收微跌，黄金收 跌，原油收跌，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指标普收跌，纳指收涨，纳 斯达克中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率震荡收涨。从资产走势来 看，目前市场焦点依旧是中东方面。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡微涨 0.04%，深成指上涨 0.24%，创业板指上涨 0.23%，市场呈现指数探底回升但个股却下跌 的走势。市场对陆家嘴论坛的 ...

6月19日盘中，苯乙烯期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至7746.00元。截止发稿，苯乙烯主力合约报 7723.00元，涨幅1.54%。 苯乙烯期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 新湖期货 国内苯乙烯主力市场涨价抬升 南华期货：苯乙烯观望为主 基本面看苯乙烯近强远弱格局不变，但近期盘面价格走向受宏观扰动较大，建议观望为主，等宏观局势 稳定后再进空单更为稳妥。 五矿期货：预计苯乙烯价格或将维持震荡 现货价格下跌，期货价格上涨，基差走弱。分析如下：成本端纯苯开工回升，供应量偏宽。供应端乙苯 脱氢利润冲高回落，苯乙烯开工触底反弹。苯乙烯港口库存去库；季节性淡季，需求端三S整体开工率 偏弱，但EPS开工反弹。短期矛盾为中东战事升级，石脑油价格大幅抬升，BZN或将回落，待战事平稳 后预计苯乙烯价格或将维持震荡。 机构 核心观点 南华期货（603093） 苯乙烯观望为主 五矿期货 预计苯乙烯价格或将维持震荡 国内苯乙烯主力市场涨价抬升。江苏市场收盘价格在7950-8070元/吨，较上一交易日收盘均价上涨205 元/吨。消息看，地缘政治带动原油大涨，生产原料端涨价，国内苯乙烯生产企业补涨跟进中，市场有 ...

瑞士央行金融稳定报告：自上次报告以来，相关经济和金融状况已恶化。经济和金融前景高度不确定， 特别是由于贸易政策和地缘政治紧张局势。 ...

PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2025- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2024-08 2024-06 01 09 05 09 01 01 05 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 FDY现金流 -DTY现金流 800 切片现金流 涤短现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2023- 2024- 2024- 02 09 01 02 09 01 05 01 -800 免责声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese dong has depreciated, reaching a historical low due to geopolitical tensions and impending tariffs from the U.S. on Vietnamese goods [1] Group 1: Currency Impact - The exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong has fallen below the historical low reached in April [1] - The depreciation is attributed to reports of potential U.S. military action against Iran, which has weakened Asian currencies [1] - Analysts indicate that the dong's weakness is primarily related to a rebound in the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Concerns - Vietnam faces additional pressure on its currency as the U.S. plans to impose a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods [1] - The reliance on exports makes Vietnam particularly vulnerable to these trade tensions [1] - The dong is expected to lag in performance within the region until trade tensions ease [1]

2025-06-19甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].

| | | 甲醇日评20250619: 地缘不确定性高，建议暂时观望 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/6/18 2025/6/17 | | | | | 变化值 | | | | (绝对值) | | | | | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2500.00 | 2455.00 | 45.00 | 1.83% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2408.00 | 2387.00 | 21.00 | 0.88% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2517.00 | 2455.00 | 62.00 | 2.53% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2700.00 | 2610.00 | 90.00 | 3.45% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2285.00 | 2275.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | 期现价格 | 甲醇现货价格 | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2570.00 | 2500.00 | ...

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