1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom center. However, in the short term, the sharp rise in prices has significantly suppressed real terminal demand, and the current copper price is overvalued to some extent. But in a macro - environment with high speculative sentiment and risk appetite, the short - term price may remain strong. The volatility of Shanghai copper options remains high, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify, with the main focus on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [2]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, the zinc price continued to be strong. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in a reduction season, and the supply of domestic zinc ore is tight. The import window for zinc ore has opened, which may relieve the short - term supply pressure. The supply pressure of refined zinc has eased, and downstream demand has shown good performance. In the future, the price will be supported by tight domestic zinc ore and low zinc ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ore. The short - term price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - atmosphere, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [6]. Nickel - Due to the resonance of supply - side contraction expectations and geopolitical risks, the nickel price rose sharply. The spot of Jinchuan nickel resources is still tight, and the spot premium remains high. The price of nickel iron has a stronger bottom support, but the terminal demand is weak. Overall, the short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 142,000 - 152,000 range [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk was affected by raw - material disturbances and rose. The spot resources are generally tight, and the market sentiment is boosted by the expected tightening of the nickel ore market. The supply - side pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 13,500 - 14,200 range [9]. Tin - The tin price rose strongly. On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia has basically completed the annual target. The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) may affect tin production. On the demand side, the tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate disk continued to rise rapidly. The market's expectation of supply disturbances has been strengthened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream demand maintains a certain resilience, but the orders in the power market have declined. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to liquidity risks and regulatory possibilities [16]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price followed the aluminum price and continued to reach new highs, but the spot - market trading was light. The cost is the main driving factor, and the market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand weak. The ADC12 price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,600 - 23,600 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide disk fluctuated widely, and the spot trading was light at the end of the year. The policy has stimulated the supply - side contraction expectation, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed. The aluminum oxide price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line and may follow the aluminum price to rise emotionally in the future. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum expected to run in the 23,800 - 24,800 yuan/ton range [21]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price was affected by the news of the organic - silicon monomer factory meeting. The 1 - month industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand may decline, and the export may increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, and the futures price rose and then fell. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industry chain by holding up the price, but the downstream demand is weak. In January, the demand has no bright spots, and the price may rise while the volume falls. The polysilicon price will remain in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction efforts or price - decline pressure [24]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.07% to 103,665 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.58% to 103,815 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of various copper types and related indicators such as refined - scrap spread, LME 0 - 3, and import profit and loss have changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. In November, the electrolytic copper import volume was 27.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.90%. The inventory of various types has also changed [2]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 1.54% to 23,970 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount and other indicators have changed [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24%. In November, the refined zinc import volume was 1.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%, and the export volume increased significantly. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 3.84% to 143,450 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of various nickel products and other indicators have changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, China's refined nickel production was 33,342 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38%. In November, the refined nickel import volume was 12,671 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.08%. The inventory of various types has also changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) increased by 0.76% to 13,300 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw materials and month - to - month spreads have changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. The import and export volumes of stainless steel have also changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has decreased slightly [9]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.85% to 341,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount, import profit and loss, and month - to - month spreads have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the tin ore import volume was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. In December, the SMM refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The inventory of various types has decreased to varying degrees [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.69% to 127,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lithium products and spreads have changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The demand decreased by 2.50%, and the inventory of various types has decreased [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 1.73% to 23,500 yuan/ton, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum and month - to - month spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 2.57% to 23,910 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related indicators such as import profit and loss and month - to - month spreads have changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of various types has changed [21]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spreads have changed significantly [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 39.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The production and operating rates in different regions and the production of related downstream products have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [22]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 0.47% to 53,500 yuan/kg, and the futures price and month - to - month spreads have changed [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, import and export volumes, and inventory levels have all changed [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需过剩主导，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：元旦小长假期间，美国三角洲部队突袭委内瑞拉首都并绑架该国总统马杜罗及其夫人， 地缘风险快速升温。同时美国总统特朗普威胁其他南美小国，如果继续对抗美国将受到更强大的制 裁，这或将成为节后油价上涨的重要地 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-07 展望：现货紧缺叠加宏观环境偏好，预计钯金价格震荡偏强。但短期来 看，价格波动加剧，投资者或谨慎交易为宜，套利策略方面，建议内外正 套暂时获利了结，以及择机滚动参与多铂空钯。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变化； 主产区供应扰动 弱美元+地缘政治风险发酵，铂钯延续上 行 2026年1⽉6⽇GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为616.8元/克，涨幅6.02%；钯主 ⼒合约收盘价为471.9元/克，涨幅5.16%。 铂观点：弱美元+地缘政治风险发酵，铂金延续偏强走势 主要逻辑：特朗普近期表示，或将在1月公布下一任美联储主席人选，目 前凯文哈塞特仍是最热门人选，未来降息路径仍偏乐观。此外，1月3日凌 晨，美军对委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯等地发动突袭，抓捕总统马杜罗夫妇并 带至美国纽约，地缘政治风险再度发酵，或进一步加剧价格波动。至1月6 日收盘，广期所铂金主力合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价26. 6元/克，内外价差大幅收敛，建议等待价差重新扩大后，继续关注内外正 套机会。展望未来，供给方面，南 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 07 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 2025 年 12 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 回落至 47.9%，这支撑了市场关于美联储将 继续宽松货币政策的预期，而特朗普再次表达对吞并格陵兰岛的意愿，流动性溢 价与地缘政治风险推动贵金属板块继续偏强运行，但伦敦黄金在 4500 美元/盎司 附近遭遇抛压，市场在 12 月非农就业数据公布前较为谨慎。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重 组、美联储宽松货币政策、全球经济增长 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices driven by geopolitical tensions and strong market demand, with gold reaching $4505.70 per ounce and silver surpassing $80 per ounce [1][2] - The geopolitical unrest following the U.S. control of Venezuelan leaders has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards these precious metals [1] - The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased a net total of 45 tons of gold in November 2025, with total purchases from January to November 2025 nearing 297 tons, reflecting ongoing strong demand from emerging market central banks [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that gold and silver are evolving from mere inflation hedges to foundational assets in the global economy, with gold being viewed as a key monetary asset and alternative to the U.S. dollar [2] - The report emphasizes that the strong performance of gold and silver at the beginning of 2026 indicates that the underlying drivers for price increases remain robust, with concerns over currency devaluation and fiscal sustainability continuing to support demand for hard assets [2] - UBS Wealth Management analysts predict that factors such as central bank gold purchases, increasing fiscal deficits, declining U.S. interest rates, and persistent geopolitical risks will drive gold prices to reach $5000 per ounce by the end of Q1 2026 [2]

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •委石油已成囊中物？ 美油企高管持异议 •德国总理：提振经济将成2026年首要任务 •美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）5日评论说，美国总统特朗普可能就委内瑞拉石油作出了重大误判。特朗 普对美国能源企业有望获取委内瑞拉庞大石油资源感到兴奋，但行业消息人士告诉CNN，美国石油行 业高管不太可能贸然进军委内瑞拉，原因包括当地实际情况变数大，委内瑞拉石油基础设施老化，以及 该国曾采取石油资产国有化的措施等。 •多家欧洲市场机构日前认为，美国对委内瑞拉实施军事打击并强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇可能 加剧投资者对地缘政治不确定性的担忧，对石油市场供应和风险预期造成影响。 •德国总理默茨近日在致执政联盟成员的一封信中表示，德国经济形势在某些领域"非常严峻"，2026年 应将提振经济作为首要任务。 •英国汽车制造商和贸易商协会6日公布的数据显示，2025年英国新车注册量同比增长3.5%至202万辆， 自新冠疫情以来首次超过200万辆。电动汽车需求增长成为推动英国车市回暖的重要因素，中国汽车品 牌的市场表现引发关注。 •沙特资本市场管理局宣布，将自2月1日起向所有类别的外国投资者开放资本市场，允许其 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management predicts that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce by the end of Q1 2026, driven by central bank purchases, expanding fiscal deficits, declining U.S. interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Commodity Market Outlook - The overall commodity market is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant returns anticipated due to supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical tensions, and global energy transition trends [1][3]. - UBS is particularly optimistic about investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and agricultural products, while gold remains a valuable asset for risk diversification in investment portfolios [1][2]. Specific Commodity Insights - Copper and aluminum are expected to face further supply shortages, driven by the ongoing global clean energy transition and electrification, making them core investment assets [2]. - Oil prices are projected to rebound in the second half of the year as current oversupply conditions ease with steady demand growth and slowing supply growth from non-OPEC producers [2]. Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices are expected to rise throughout the year, supported by central bank purchases, large fiscal deficits, declining U.S. real interest rates, and persistent geopolitical risks [2][3]. - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, with a projected decline to around $4,800 by the end of 2026 [3]. Political and Financial Risks - If political or financial risks escalate, gold prices could potentially reach $5,400 per ounce, an increase from the previous target of $4,900 [4].

昨日1月6日（星期二），黄金早盘开盘上涨4460受阻回落，在下探4428附近后回升上涨；欧盘在4476附近受阻回落，下探4442附近后回升上涨；美盘在4491 附近受阻，下探4463附近后上涨，凌晨最高上涨至4497/4498附近，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、地缘政治风险升温 美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，逮捕总统马杜罗并押送至纽约，引发委内瑞拉政治格局动荡，国际社会紧张氛围加剧，推动避险资金流入黄金市场。特朗普 计划会见石油公司高管，商讨重振委内瑞拉石油产业，进一步强化市场对地缘风险的担忧。 特朗普重申控制格陵兰岛的意图，其幕僚淡化国际法与丹麦主权引发欧洲多国反对，法、英、德等七国领导人发表联合声明维护格陵兰岛相关主权，凸显全 球地缘政治不稳定性，为金价提供额外支撑。 2、美联储政策与经济数据预期 市场普遍预期美联储2026年将实施两次降息，里奇蒙联储主席表示货币政策需根据数据精细调整，平衡失业与通胀风险。 市场密切关注周五公布的美国非农就业报告，预计12月新增就业岗位约6万个，略低于前月，该数据将为美联储利率路径提供重要线索。 3、今日关注 01.07 三 下一 川才 2个 否 1 年 - 周 三 ...

本周二，金属市场延续周一涨势全面爆发。伦镍领衔工业金属大涨，盘中一度涨超9%，纽约期银盘中涨超6%，逼近一周前所创的盘中最高纪录，伦 铜在周一史上首次突破1.3万美元关口后进一步走高，周二盘中涨超3%，连续两日创历史新高。纽约期金盘中涨超1%，抹平上周一芝商所（CME） 提高交易保证金以来多数跌幅，向圣诞节前所创的最高纪录靠近。 中国投资者成为本轮金属涨势的重要推手。交易动态显示，包括镍、铜和锡在内的金属价格在亚洲时段大幅跳涨，交易量激增，上海期货交易所夜 盘开盘后再次拉升。周二日间收盘时，沪银涨超7%，沪铜、沪锡、沪镍涨超4%，夜盘开盘，沪镍涨近5%，沪银涨近3%，沪锡涨超2%，沪铜涨超 1%。 特朗普政府潜在关税政策持续发酵。据一些报道，美国总统特朗普考虑2027年对进口铜征收约15%的关税，2028年提高至30%。投资者对美国提高关 税的预期导致大量铜库存涌入美国。据CME数据，美国铜库存自2025年4月以来增长超过四倍，截至1月2日达到45.345万吨，而全球其他地区供应告 急。 地缘政治风险推升避险需求。据新华社报道，美国1月3日上周六凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控 ...