Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the geopolitical tensions affecting the oil market, particularly focusing on the Middle East and the implications for global oil prices [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Middle East Tensions**: The geopolitical risk premium has significantly increased, leading to a substantial rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude futures surpassing $71 per barrel during the holiday period [2][3]. - **US-Iran Negotiations**: The second round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran in Geneva has not resolved key differences, raising concerns about potential military conflict and disruptions in oil supply [2][3]. - **US Economic Data**: Recent US inflation data exceeded expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The core PCE index showed stronger-than-expected results, contributing to a complex outlook for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - **Market Reactions**: During the holiday period, global equity markets generally rose, with notable performances in the US and European markets. However, the Nikkei 225 index saw a slight decline of 0.2% [5][6]. Additional Important Content - **Impact of US Supreme Court Ruling**: The ruling against Trump's "IEEPA tariffs" is expected to have limited economic and market impact, although it may reduce tariffs on China by 5%, potentially improving US-China trade relations [4]. - **Commodity Performance**: There was a mixed performance in commodities, with significant increases in silver, wheat, and oil prices, while gold prices rose by 1.3% [5][6]. - **Risk Factors**: Potential risks include unexpected downturns in the US economy, rising inflation, and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China tariff disputes [7].

CGI原本是华大智造海外核心运营主体。 2月24日，国产基因测序仪龙头华大智造（688114.SH）盘中股价涨幅超过1%。 2025年前三季度，华大智造归属于上市公司股东的净利润仍亏损1.2亿元。 伴随着这次出售CGI公司，华大智造也在调整在北美市场的运营方式，不再是正面"死磕"，而是通过授 权模式间接参与北美市场。 2025年9月，华大智造方面曾将CoolMPS测序技术及通用测序技术的海外专利、技术秘密及商标的独占 许可授权给了SwissRockets。 这次交易，华大智造方面又增加将StandardMPS测序技术（以下简称"StandardMPS"）及通用测序技术有 偿授权给SwissRockets，授权区域为美国以及加拿大。 与此同时，本次交易也通过反向授权安排保障华大智造对CGI公司205项专利的永久使用权，确保全球 业务技术连贯性。 前一晚，华大智造公布了一项出售资产计划，拟将剥离相关资产及负债后的全资孙公司 CompleteGenomics,Inc.（下称"CGI"）100%股权出售给瑞士公司SwissRockets，出售价约5000万美元。 原本CGI归属于华大智造全资子公司MGIR&DHK旗下 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that international oil prices are experiencing a significant increase, driven by geopolitical risks rather than supply and demand factors, with Brent crude futures rising over 5% in a single week during the Spring Festival [1] - The oil market is expected to maintain high volatility in prices over the next month, particularly as the situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, leading to a scenario where prices are more likely to rise than fall [1] - Companies in the upstream sector with oil and gas resources, as well as those in offshore oil and gas service engineering, are recommended for attention due to their potential benefits from the industry's high prosperity [1] Group 2 - As of February 24, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has surged by 6.17%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Potential Energy rising by 18.53%, China Oil Engineering by 10.13%, and Blue Flame Holdings by 10.04% [1] - The Oil ETF Penghua (159697) has increased by 6.64%, reflecting a latest price of 1.43 yuan, and closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, which represents the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index as of January 30, 2026, include major companies such as China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, collectively accounting for 66.76% of the index [1]

集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，区间思路对待 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 2026 年 2 月 24 日 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 研 究 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2604 1,269.8 3.38% 25,064 25,845 -5,176 0.97 1.17 EC2606 1,636.0 6.25% 5,648 13,960 573 0.40 0.32 ec2610 1,137.2 0.99% 1,729 7,931 -159 0.22 0.15 单位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 38 1950 1225 MSC 45 2340 1400 OOCL 50 3030 178 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 5 元至 1833 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 23025 手至 25.9 万手，空头持仓减少 23967 手至 27.0 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.56 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 2.10 万吨；开工率 91.56%，较去年同期 86.92%上涨 4.64%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 83.47 万吨，较上周减少 8.38 万吨，环比减 少 9.12%。尿素港口样本库存量 16.6 万吨，环比+0.1。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 36.1%，环比-5.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 60.7%，环比+2.8%。 4、印度 RCF 尿素进口招标，最晚船期 3 月 31 日，共收到 20 个供货商，总计超 307 | | | | | 万吨投标量。东海岸最低报价 CFR512 美元/吨，西海岸最低报价 CFR508 美元/吨， | | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1113.46 | 1110.100 | 19570 | 19782 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1129.74 | 1126.120 | 20348 | 20626 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | -16.28 | -16.020 | -778 | -844 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | -1.44% | -1.42% | -3.82% | -4.09% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 92475 | 153140 | 128713 | 181220 | | | | 成交量 | 63719 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has experienced a significant surge, driven by geopolitical risks and favorable macroeconomic conditions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals stocks saw substantial gains, with notable increases such as Xiaocheng Technology rising over 13%, Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit, and Sichuan Gold increasing by over 9% [1]. - Spot gold prices broke above $5200 per ounce for the first time since January 30, marking a nearly 2% increase within the day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract rose by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [1]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its gold price target to $6200 per ounce, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and a favorable macro environment as key drivers for rising gold prices [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish mid-term outlook on gold, predicting prices will gradually rise to $5400 per ounce by the end of 2026, despite a temporary slowdown in central bank gold purchases [2]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - U.S. economic and employment data have shown positive performance, but concerns about inflation have delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including military threats against Iran and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly following a Supreme Court ruling against certain tariffs, has contributed to market volatility and increased interest in precious metals [3]. Group 4: Market Trends During Holidays - During the Spring Festival, the precious metals market experienced two phases: initial declines due to expectations of delayed interest rate cuts, followed by a recovery driven by geopolitical tensions [4]. - The U.S. military's deployment in the Middle East and disappointing economic data have combined to create a renewed demand for gold and silver, pushing prices higher towards the end of the holiday period [4].

地缘方面，据央视网2月23日消息，就在美伊释放谈判信号的同时，美国对伊朗展开军事打击的风险依 然存在。另据报道，美媒援引美国中央情报局前情报人员的话称，美国可能在2月23日或2月24日对伊朗 发动军事打击。 消息面上，春节假期VLCC运价持续上涨，创近10年最高水平。根据华创证券，截至2026年2月20日， 克拉克森VLCC-TCE收于14.2万美元/天，周环比增长24.5%；其中，中东-中国航线收于15.7万美元/天， 周环比增长26%。一年期VLCC期租价格也继续涨至9.25万美元/天，周环比增长28.5%。该行认为，地 缘风险溢价+长锦大举"扫货"+制裁强化，VLCC市场正面临近乎空前的高涨情绪。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.08%，报18.89港元，成交额1.84亿港元。 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen a turnover of 5.94% and a transaction volume of 221 million yuan as of February 13, 2026, with a net inflow of 9.92 million yuan [1] - International gold prices have risen nearly 4% during the holiday period, surpassing the 5200 USD mark, driven by increased market risk aversion due to new tariff policies and economic data from the U.S. [2] - UBS maintains a positive outlook on gold, projecting a target price of 6200 USD per ounce in the coming months, citing geopolitical risks and continued central bank purchases as key drivers [2] Product Highlights - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has a total management and custody fee of 0.30%, which is lower than the average fee of 0.60% for most gold ETFs [1] - The ETF has reached a new high in shares since its inception, indicating strong investor interest and confidence [1] Related Products - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) is linked to off-market funds, including Connect Fund A (014661) and Connect Fund C (014662) [1] - Other ETFs mentioned include various sector-focused funds such as the Technology ETF, Biopharmaceutical ETF, and Aerospace ETF, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities in the market [3][4]