Tariff Adjustments - Both parties agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 percentage points[2] - The U.S. will lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 10% within 90 days, while China's counter-tariffs will also drop to 10%[6] - The overall U.S. tariff on China could range from 40% to 50% when considering previous tariffs[6] Market Reactions - The significant tariff reductions indicate a consensus against extreme trade decoupling, potentially easing market risk appetite[2] - Following the announcement, U.S.-China stock index futures rose, the RMB appreciated, and the U.S. dollar index increased[6] Future Negotiations - A mechanism will be established for ongoing trade discussions, with a critical 90-day negotiation period ahead[3] - The U.S. is expected to push for further concessions from China, including market access and service trade improvements[7] Risks and Considerations - The potential for tariff fluctuations remains, influenced by Trump's unpredictable trade policies and ongoing ideological conflicts[8] - Specific tariffs on products like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may still be implemented as part of strategic supply chain adjustments[8] Overall Outlook - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding the potential for a "Phase 2" trade agreement, but emphasizes the need for close monitoring of developments[8]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 出口的坚韧与国内精炼铜消费的强劲可以形成相互验证，这种情况可能在 5 月份仍会有所持续，因此短期内国内精炼铜预计仍将维 持较强的去库格局，从而对价格、升水、月差带来较为明显的支撑，同时近期国内政治局会议也强调了政策对低价格的指引需求，这 也从一定程度上相当于为工业品划定了底线思维 。 1、上周金铜窄幅震荡 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 2,5 2%，白银 上涨 2.18%；沪金2506合约 上涨 0 .77%，沪银2506 合约下跌 0 .17%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-0.93%、+0.3%。 2、贸易谈判延续，风险偏好回升 上周宏观方面较为平静，缺乏重要经济数据指引，同时美国的贸易谈判仍在开展，美国已经率先同英国达成贸易协定，并且 也已经与中国代表在瑞士展开谈判，所以整体宏观情绪较为平静，同时上周的美国初请失业金人数也出现下降，劳动力市场 短期内仍然稳固，市场急于定价美国经济衰退或者复苏都是不太合理的交易，因此价格本身的表现也较为平静。周末中美贸 易代表在瑞士的谈判结果对短期市场的走强可能有较强的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, the macro environment is changing. With the repair of overseas equity risk appetite, the boost of domestic macro - policies, and the marginal mitigation of tariff disturbances, the RMB exchange rate and the domestic equity market are likely to remain strong. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies. The CSI 300 Index has support at 3600 - 3700 and resistance at 4000 - 4100 [2][18] Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the index oscillated upward with all sectors closing higher. By May 9, the CSI 300 fell 0.36%, the SSE 50 fell 0.84%, the CSI 500 rose 0.46%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.50%. IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 1.01%, IC rose 0.35%, and IM rose 0.59%. The net short positions of IF and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [1][4] - **Liquidity and Capital**: By May 9, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 26 basis points, and DR007 dropped 25.77 basis points. The inter - bank market interest rate declined marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 115.282 billion, with the main board having a net outflow of 75.083 billion and the GEM having a net outflow of 25.099 billion. The margin trading balance increased by about 17.394 billion. Foreign capital data was suspended [4][5] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, CPI continued to be under pressure with deflationary pressure remaining. Food CPI rebounded, non - food CPI declined, and optional consumption demand was weak. PPI of production and living materials continued to decline, indicating weak manufacturing demand. The Politburo meeting emphasized more active macro - policies. After the May Day holiday, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. Although the Q1 economy recovered better than expected, the Q2 economy faces significant downward pressure [13][15] Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed resilience, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Earnings reports and trade negotiations supported the US stock market. Domestically, the index adjustment in April digested negative impacts. In May, macro - policies provided support, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies [17][18]

智通财经5月12日电，丹斯克银行固收和外汇研究联席主管安德森在一份报告中表示，周末中美贸易谈 判的积极消息传出后，上周以来市场风险偏好改善的趋势预计将在本周延续。"过去一周，市场整体呈 现出风险情绪回暖的态势，很大程度上是因为贸易战出现了初步缓和的迹象。"美国财政部长贝森特也 表示，双方会谈富有成效，并透露美国将在周一公布更多细节。 丹斯克银行：本周风险情绪料持续改善 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to close at 100.338, indicating a decline against a basket of currencies, except for the Canadian dollar [1] - Analysts suggest that the worst phase of the trade and tariff war may be over, as the Trump administration appears to be reaching out to different countries [1] - The Canadian unemployment rate increased from 6.7% in March to 6.9% in April, which was higher than the market expectation of 6.8%, contributing to the decline of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro appreciated to 1.1259 USD from the previous day's 1.1225 USD, while the British pound rose to 1.3315 USD from 1.3251 USD [2] - The US dollar exchanged at 145.27 JPY, down from 145.88 JPY, and at 0.8311 CHF, slightly down from 0.8312 CHF [2] - The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3930 CAD, up from 1.3928 CAD [2]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on stock index futures released by Ruida Futures Research Institute on May 9, 2025 [2] Report's Core View - A-share major indices oscillated upward this week, with all three major indices closing higher. The four major stock index futures also rose, with small and medium-cap stocks performing equally well as large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading activity increased slightly this week. The joint release of the "package of financial policies" by relevant departments increased the medium- and long-term liquidity supply and released positive signals of the monetary policy to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite [4][85] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Performance**: IF2506 rose 2.35% this week with a -0.15% decline on Friday, closing at 3840.20; IH2506 rose 2.15% with a 0.11% increase on Friday, closing at 2683.60; IC2506 rose 2.01% with a -0.86% decline on Friday, closing at 5702.40; IM2506 rose 2.55% with a -1.10% decline on Friday, closing at 6056.20 [8] - **Spot Index Performance**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.00% with a -0.17% decline on Friday, closing at 3846.16; the Shanghai 50 rose 1.93% with a 0.17% increase on Friday, closing at 2684.01; the CSI 500 rose 1.60% with a -0.90% decline on Friday, closing at 5721.72; the CSI 1000 rose 2.22% with a -1.23% decline on Friday, closing at 6082.08 [8] 2. News Overview - **Trade Data**: In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. In April, the total goods trade imports and exports were 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [11] - **Financial Policies**: On May 7, the central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the securities regulatory commission jointly introduced a "package of financial policies," including a series of measures to support market stability and expectations [11] - **Sino-US Economic and Trade Talks**: China decided to engage in talks with the US under certain conditions, emphasizing mutual respect, equal negotiation, and mutual benefit [11] - **Holiday Data**: During the May Day holiday, the cross-regional personnel flow exceeded 14.65 billion person-times. The number of domestic tourist trips was 314 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the total tourism spending was 180.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [12] 3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.92% this week with a -0.30% decline on Friday, closing at 3342.00; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.29% with a -0.69% decline on Friday, closing at 10126.83; the STAR 50 fell 0.60% with a -1.96% decline on Friday, closing at 1006.32; the SME 100 rose 1.49% with a -0.62% decline on Friday, closing at 6294.71; the ChiNext Index rose 3.27% with a -0.87% decline on Friday, closing at 2011.77 [15] - **External Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 0.40% this week with a 0.58% increase on Thursday, closing at 5663.94; the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.75% with a -0.32% decline on Thursday, closing at 8531.61; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.21% with a 0.37% increase on Thursday, closing at 22775.92; the Nikkei 225 rose 1.83% with a 0.41% increase on Thursday, closing at 37503.33 [16] - **Industry Sector Performance**: All industry sectors rose, with national defense and military industry, communication and other sectors having relatively large increases. Most industry sectors had net outflows of main funds, with the basic chemical sector having a significant net outflow [20][24] - **SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates declined, indicating a relatively loose capital market [28] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net secondary market increase of 6.504 billion yuan, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 44.622 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 507.4 billion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM oscillated [33][41][44] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: A-share major indices oscillated upward this week. China's foreign trade continued to grow steadily in April, and the "package of financial policies" released on May 7 increased medium- and long-term liquidity supply and released positive signals. The market risk appetite has significantly recovered, and the trading volume has also increased [85] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, but be vigilant about potential pullbacks if the tariff negotiations do not meet expectations [85]

换资前言： 一篇文章的指引或许有限，但长期精准的分析才是稳步提升收益的关键。或许你见过无数分析与盈利案 例，却仍受亏损困扰——这往往是因过度综合复杂策略所致，而市场本质是"少数者盈利"的博弈。与其 分散参考，不如专注跟随专业思路：建立"入场、出场、风控"三位一体的交易体系，方能实现稳定盈 利。积少成多并非难事，关键在于科学规划与严格执行。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五(5月9日)亚市尾盘，美元指数位于100.65附近；现货黄金在昨日暴跌后有所反弹，目前金价位于 3313美元/盎司附近。美元指数周四上涨，在美国与英国达成双边贸易协议后，市场情绪受到安抚，美 元兑避险货币日元与瑞郎走强。追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周四收盘攀升0.73%，至 100.64，美国总统特朗普周四宣布与英国达成一项"突破性"贸易协议，该协议保留对包括汽车在内的英 国进口商品征收10%的基准关税。因英美贸易协议提升市场风险偏好，加之美元和美债收益率大幅攀 升，现货黄金周四收盘暴跌58.25美元，跌幅1.73%，报3305.89美元/盎司。周五，投资者将迎来大量美 联储官员讲话，其中美联储" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agreement between the US and the UK on tariff trade has led to a rise in market risk appetite, with the gold price falling by over 2%, the US dollar index strengthening, and the US stock index futures showing a short - term risk preference recovery. However, tariff negotiations remain complex, and the long - term impact is uncertain [2][3][14][17]. - In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends. For example, the steel price continues to decline, the inventory of some metals and energy products shows changes, and the prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy [6][24][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement, reducing the US tariff on British - made cars to 10% and the beef tariff close to zero. The gold price fell by over 2%. In the short term, gold is under pressure, but the negotiation is complex, and there is still room for correction [14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations, and be aware of the short - term correction risk of gold [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The US and the UK reached the first trade agreement since the Trump tariff war, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a short - term rebound [15][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a major agreement with the UK. The US House of Representatives Committee will start deliberating on Trump's tax - cut plan next week. The short - term market risk preference recovers, but tariff negotiations tend to be long - term, and it is not recommended to chase high [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. The current one - sided market opportunities are limited, and attention can be paid to various arbitrage strategies, such as the curve - steepening strategy. The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates should be continuously monitored [21][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of March 31, Canada's rapeseed ending inventory was 5.8694 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The oil market continued to fluctuate. The short - term palm oil price has reached the support level, and it is recommended to wait for the MPOB report data before operating [24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil announced the 25/26 sanitary interval schedule. The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply and demand report on May 12 [25][27][28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in April decreased by 17.65% year - on - year. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi increased, and the sales rate reached 63.96%, a 6 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar price has strong resistance to decline in the short term, but the external market is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter of 2025. Attention should be paid to the sugar factory's inventory reduction progress [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to raise prices to promote purchases, but the effect was not good. The overseas cassava starch startup rate decreased seasonally. The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. It is recommended to hold the 07 long positions and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities. If the import auction starts, focus on the transaction rate and price [38]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In April, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, and the national passenger - car market retail sales were 1.791 million vehicles. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 289,700 tons week - on - week. The steel price continued to decline, and the short - term downward space is difficult to open. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see in the short term, and use the rebound hedging strategy for the spot [39][40][41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - After the holiday, the port coal inventory was full, and the coal price may decline rapidly again. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the price can hold at the 600 - yuan level [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - FMG's iron ore shipments in the first quarter of 2025 were 46.1 million tons. With the seasonal weakening of demand, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [44][45][46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market was stable. During the May Day holiday, the supply of coking coal was sufficient, and the second round of coke price increase was postponed. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend, and in the long term, it will be weak [47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, the total actual output of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 181,500 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 24.34%. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations in the short term [48][49][50]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Several copper - related companies had acquisition and project progress. The UK - US trade agreement may increase market risk appetite and benefit the copper price. The domestic copper inventory continued to decline, supporting the price. It is recommended to conduct band operations in the short term and gradually stop profiting from the positive spread strategy [51][53][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Tongwei has no plan to destock through the polysilicon futures delivery. The 06 contract price rebounded after reaching a low point. It is expected that the polysilicon will continue to destock in May. Long positions and positive spreads can continue to be held [55][56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The organic silicon DMC price is expected to fluctuate. The demand for industrial silicon is weak, and it is recommended to partially stop profiting from previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown received 15 million Australian dollars in support from the Western Australian government, and BYD and Tsingshan Holdings withdrew from the Chilean lithium processing plant plan. In the long term, the lithium carbonate market is in surplus, and the cost support may move down. It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current point, and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [59][60][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead ingot social inventory continued to increase. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [63][64][65]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American and Lundin Mining's zinc production increased in the first quarter of 2025. The zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The short - term zinc price is supported by low inventory and strong spot, but the medium - term demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and internal - external positive spread opportunities [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in an oscillating adjustment phase. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [74][75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The PTA price is expected to be oscillatingly strong or continue to rebound in the short term [76][77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future. The cost end drags down the price, and the downstream profit expansion space is limited [79][80][81]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On May 8, the caustic soda market in Shandong had an upward transaction, and the enterprise inventory was at a low level. The caustic soda spot price rebounded, but the overall commodity market is weak, and the caustic soda market is difficult to rise significantly [82][83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The short - term pulp market is expected to be oscillatingly weak [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased. Although the inventory is decreasing and the basis is strengthening, the market expects negative impacts from tariffs, and the PVC performance may continue to be weak [85]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips increased slightly in some areas. The supply pressure of bottle chips is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [86][87][88]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of May 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.74%. The soda ash futures price continued to fall, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly this week. The glass price continued to fall, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The glass price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [90][91]. 2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's EBIT in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.253 billion US dollars. Affected by the peace talks between the Houthi and the US, the European - line futures weakened. It is recommended to treat the market as a wide - range oscillation and wait and see in the short term [92].

周四，比特币重回10万美元以上，为自今年2月以来首次突破这一心理关口。分析师表示，这反映出投资者对风 险资产的整体需求正在回升，与此同时，美股也持续从4月低点反弹，市场风险偏好明显增强。 加密货币交易所Kraken的全球经济学家Thomas Perfumo指出："比特币重新站上六位数大关，正值全球市场风险 情绪复苏之际。股票市场表现强劲，投资者对于配置风险资产的意愿正在增强，而这种复苏的'动物精神'也迅 速蔓延到了加密货币领域。" 今年1月20日，即美国总统特朗普宣誓就职当天，比特币创下历史新高，达到109,225美元。当时，市场普遍预 期新政府将为加密资产带来更宽松的监管环境。然而，随后由于特朗普政府推动的关税政策引发风险市场震 荡，比特币一度在4月初跌破8万美元。 本周四，在特朗普宣布其政府已与英国达成初步贸易协议后，美股与比特币双双上涨。Interactive Brokers高级 经济学家JoséTorres表示："投资者终于看到了'特朗普贸易隧道'尽头的光明，现在开始将注意力转向特朗普政策 组合中的增长预期。" 比特币周四上涨5%，最高触及101,515美元，下午交投于约101,094美元。与此同时， ...

金十数据5月7日讯，华创证券首席分析师姚佩表示，本次会议内容可分为两大部分：一是支持实体经 济，二是支持资本市场。针对实体经济的支持包括总量和结构两方面。总量方面，降准降息落地。结构 方面，中国央行在资金投向方面拥有更大的灵活性和指引性，当前更多倾向于科技创新和扩内需。针对 资本市场的支持主要体现在对"平准基金"和中长线资金入市的进一步坚定。姚佩认为，"一行一局一 会"打出组合拳，后续各部委或密集召开新闻发布会，可能形成"一揽子"政策的加速落地。对股市来 说，短期风险偏好的稳定比基本面修复更重要，此刻不必悲观，量比价更重要。过去10个交易日A股日 均成交额1.1万亿元，未来一到两周市场若持续放量，将构建更扎实的底部，带来风险偏好的加强和向 上反弹的信心。 华创证券："一行一局一会"打出组合拳 将带来市场风险偏好的加强 ...