| | | 全球主要股票指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场 | 名称 道琼斯工业平均 | 现价 46270.46 | 涨跌 202.88 | 涨跌幅 0.44% | | | 纳斯达克 | 22521.7 | -172.91 | -0.76% | | | 标普500 | 6644.31 | -10.41 | -0.16% | | 欧美 | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5552.05 | -16.14 | -0.29% | | | 英国富时100 | 9452.77 m | 129.9 | 0.10% | | | 法国CAC40 | | 7919.62. gogud =14.64 | -0.18% | | | 德国DAX | 24236.94 | -150.99 | -0.62% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1001.3 | -2.49 | -0.25% | | | 上证指数 | 3865.23 | -24.27 | -0.62% | | | 深证成指 | 12895.11 | -336.36 | -2.54% | | | 创业板指 | 2955.98 | -12 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results on October 14, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 202.88 points (0.44%) to close at 46,270.46, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 172.91 points (0.76%) to 22,521.70, and the S&P 500 decreased by 10.41 points (0.16%) to 6,644.31 [3][6]. Earnings Reports - Major banks kicked off the earnings season, with Citigroup reporting Q3 revenue of $22.1 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, and all five core business segments achieving record revenues for the quarter, leading to a nearly 4% rise in its stock price [5]. - Wells Fargo's Q3 revenue reached $21.44 billion, up 5.3% year-over-year, with net interest income slightly below market expectations at $11.95 billion. The bank anticipates Q4 net interest income to be between $12.4 billion and $12.5 billion, resulting in a 7.15% stock price increase, the largest single-day gain since November 2024 [5]. - JPMorgan Chase reported adjusted Q3 revenue of $47.12 billion and profit of $14 billion, both exceeding analyst expectations, yet its stock fell by 1.89% [6]. - Goldman Sachs posted Q3 net revenue of $15.18 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, but its stock also declined by 2.04% [6]. Technology Sector - The technology sector saw most major stocks decline, with Nvidia down 4.4%, Tesla down 1.53%, Amazon down 1.67%, and Meta down 0.99%. However, Apple rose by 0.04%, Google A increased by 0.53%, and Microsoft fell by 0.09% [5]. - AMD's stock rose by 0.77% after announcing an expanded partnership with Oracle to deploy 50,000 GPUs starting in Q3 2026 [5]. Commodities - The rare earth sector experienced significant gains, with Critical Metals rising over 28% and American Resources increasing over 36% [7]. - Gold prices reached a peak of $4,170 per ounce before retreating, while silver prices hit a historical high of over $53 per ounce before falling below $51 [8][9]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the long-term asset balance sheet reduction plan may be nearing its end, with a focus on maintaining sufficient liquidity in the financial system [10][11]. - Market expectations suggest a nearly 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [12].

Core Views - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of deterioration, with increased risks of job losses, despite some economic data suggesting slightly stronger growth than expected [1][3][25] - The Federal Reserve may consider pausing its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, as liquidity conditions appear to be tightening [6][21] - The Fed's ability to control interest rates could be compromised if it is unable to pay interest on reserves, leading to greater market disruption [8][23] Economic Outlook - Recent data indicates that the economic growth trajectory may be more robust than previously anticipated, with the unemployment rate remaining low but wage growth slowing significantly [3][25][26] - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate was reported at 2.9% over the past 12 months, reflecting a slight increase due to rising core goods prices [26][27] Labor Market Dynamics - Job vacancies are declining, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, highlighting the potential for further job losses [5][25] - The Fed's assessment of risks related to employment and inflation has shifted, prompting a more neutral policy stance in September [27] Monetary Policy Considerations - The Fed is closely monitoring liquidity indicators and may take cautious actions to avoid a repeat of the "taper tantrum" experienced in 2019 [6][21] - The current framework of ample reserves has proven effective in controlling policy rates and supporting financial stability [20][24] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet, which currently stands at approximately $6.5 trillion, is primarily composed of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities [14][15] - There is an ongoing discussion about adjusting the composition of the Fed's asset holdings, with a potential increase in short-term assets [9][22]

Macro - The Chinese government aims to enhance domestic demand and strengthen the domestic circulation by implementing counter-cyclical adjustments and utilizing policy resources effectively [1] - The People's Bank of China is conducting a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to stabilize the market, indicating a continued moderate monetary policy stance [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggests that the quantitative tightening (QT) plan may soon come to an end due to tightening liquidity conditions in the financial system [4] Industry - Shanghai has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of the intelligent terminal industry, focusing on accelerating AI integration across various sectors and enhancing the scale of intelligent computing server terminals [2] - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach 83.1 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the growth of shared mobility services [8] - Domestic manufacturers have made significant advancements in computing chips, achieving performance levels over 1000 times that of top-tier GPUs, signaling positive prospects for China's AI and computing industry [9] - The production of power and other batteries in China reached 151.2 GWh in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, indicating strong growth in the lithium battery sector [10] Company - Shenghe Resources expects a net profit increase of 696.82% to 782.96% year-on-year for the first three quarters [11] - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 83.9% to 98.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters [13] - Xinda Co. forecasts a staggering net profit increase of 2807.87% to 3211.74% year-on-year for the first three quarters [13] - Chongqing Steel is expected to report a loss of 210 million to 230 million yuan for the first three quarters [13] - China Metallurgical Group's new contract signing amount for the first three quarters is 760.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [13]

2025.10.15 多位与会经济学家认为，就业下行风险正成为美联储内部关注的焦点。机构MacroPolicy Perspectives创 始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多（Julia Coronado）表示："10月降息几乎是板上钉钉。劳动力市场的风险并未缓 解，反而在增加。" 美国咨商会高级经济学家叶莲娜·舒利亚季耶娃（Yelena Shulyatyeva）认为，美联储正从"抗通胀优 先"逐步过渡到"平衡增长与就业"的阶段。"当前风险更多集中在就业端，这将决定短期内的政策方 向。" 本文字数：1970，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间10月14日，在美国政府停摆导致经济数据发布受阻的背景下，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，自9月 决策会议以来，美国经济前景基本保持不变。当前政策取向已进入艰难平衡期：一边是通胀压力尚未完 全缓解，另一边是就业市场持续走弱。尽管鲍威尔未对下一步行动给出明确信号，但市场普遍预期，美 联储将在10月底的会议上再次降息。 "现在没有无风险的路径。"鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会（NABE）年会上说，"如果行动太快，可能会 让抗通胀任务半途而废；但若行动太慢，劳动力市场也可能遭到不必要的损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is nearing the end of its quantitative tightening efforts, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy to support liquidity in the financial system [1][14] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet liabilities total $6.5 trillion, with $2.4 trillion in Federal Reserve notes, $3.0 trillion in reserves, and approximately $800 billion in the Treasury General Account [4] - The asset side consists mainly of $4.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities and $2.1 trillion in government-backed mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [5] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Powell highlighted signs of tightening liquidity conditions, including a general tightening of repo rates and temporary liquidity pressures on specific dates [1][14] - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with rising risks to employment, suggesting a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points later this month [1][2][18] - Current economic data indicates that while the unemployment rate remains low, job growth has significantly slowed, influenced by reduced immigration and a declining labor force participation rate [18] Asset Purchase and Market Stability - The Fed's asset purchases during the pandemic were aimed at stabilizing the economy and financial markets, with a peak loan amount of slightly over $200 billion in July 2020 [7] - The Fed maintained a significant asset purchase pace until October 2021, with a total increase of $4.6 trillion in securities held [8][9] - The Fed's framework for ample reserves has proven effective in controlling policy rates and promoting financial stability, even as the balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion since June 2022 [13] Future Considerations - The Fed plans to halt balance sheet reduction when reserves are slightly above the deemed adequate level, monitoring various indicators closely [14] - The current balance sheet size is influenced by public demand for liabilities rather than pandemic-related asset purchases, with non-reserve liabilities exceeding pre-pandemic levels by approximately $1.1 trillion [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential for interest rate cuts this month due to a deteriorating labor market, despite the impact of the government shutdown on economic assessments [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks reinforced expectations for further rate cuts, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October according to CME FedWatch [1][7] - Analysts believe Powell's statements have paved the way for the Fed to announce the end of its balance sheet reduction at the upcoming policy meeting [6] - The market is increasingly confident in a rate cut, with some analysts stating that the October cut is almost certain given the ongoing risks in the labor market [6][7] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell noted that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since the last meeting, but risks to employment have increased [2][3] - He emphasized the slow hiring pace and the likelihood of a further decline in the unemployment rate, with job vacancies decreasing [2] - The government shutdown has led to missing non-farm payroll data, making private sector employment reports the primary source of employment data [2] Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Status - Powell suggested that the Fed's long-standing plan for balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end, with careful monitoring of liquidity indicators [4][5] - He acknowledged signs of tightening liquidity but assured that the Fed would take cautious measures to avoid a repeat of the 2019 market stress [4][5] - Since mid-2022, the Fed has been reducing liquidity through QT, with the balance sheet currently at $6.6 trillion [4]

Market Overview - The US stock market closed mixed, with major indices reacting to positive quarterly results from large banks, comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and ongoing trade tensions [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 202.88 points (0.44%) to 46,270.46, while the Nasdaq fell by 172.91 points (0.76%) to 22,521.70, and the S&P 500 decreased by 10.41 points (0.16%) to 6,644.31 [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) may soon come to an end, with expectations for a halt in asset balance sheet reduction at the October policy meeting [1][2] - Powell acknowledged the significant downside risks in the labor market, despite inflation appearing to rise slowly [2] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, 10 out of 11 sectors rose, with consumer staples leading at 1.72% increase, followed by industrials at 1.17% [3] - The global airline ETF rose by 3.17%, regional bank ETF increased by 3.09%, and bank ETF gained 3.02%, while technology sector ETFs saw declines [3] Notable Stock Movements - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia down 4.4%, Intel down 4.27%, and Tesla down 1.53% [4] - Wells Fargo surged by 7.15%, marking its largest single-day gain since November 2024, while Citigroup's stock rose nearly 4% [5] - JPMorgan raised its full-year net interest income forecast, while Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, yet both saw stock declines of about 2% [6] Emerging Trends - A record proportion of global fund managers believe AI-related stocks are in a bubble, with 54% of respondents in a recent survey stating that tech stock valuations are "too expensive" [2] - Rare earth stocks continued their upward trend, with Critical Metals rising by 28.7% and MP Materials increasing by 3.78% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. economic outlook remains largely unchanged since the September meeting, with a delicate balance between persistent inflation pressures and a weakening labor market. The market widely anticipates another rate cut at the upcoming meeting at the end of October [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Powell emphasized that the U.S. is experiencing a phase of "low hiring, low layoffs," with a decline in job vacancies likely to soon impact the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in a year, and the government shutdown has delayed the release of the September non-farm payroll report, complicating assessments of labor market conditions [2][5]. - Economists are increasingly concerned about the risks to employment, with some suggesting that the Fed is shifting focus from anti-inflation measures to balancing growth and employment [2][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Despite market expectations for continued easing, Powell reiterated that inflation risks have not been fully resolved, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.9% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target. He indicated that the Fed's task remains to bring inflation back to sustainable levels without harming employment [3][4]. - Powell hinted that the process of reducing the Fed's balance sheet may soon come to an end, suggesting a potential slowdown in quantitative tightening to maintain market liquidity [3][5]. Data Availability and Decision-Making Challenges - The government shutdown has interrupted the release of key economic data, creating uncertainty for the Fed's decision-making process. Powell acknowledged that the Fed may not be able to compensate for the lack of data, particularly for October, which could complicate the situation further [5][6]. - The Fed is relying on alternative data sources to fill the gaps left by the absence of official statistics, but Powell stressed that these cannot fully replace government data [4][5]. Market Expectations - Investors generally expect the Fed to maintain a moderate easing stance in the coming months, with projections indicating a cumulative rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of the year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note recently fell to 4.03%, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets [5][6].

目前尚不清楚美联储能将资产负债表缩减到何种程度。一些官员认为，金融体系中仍有充足流动性，意味着QT进程仍可继续推进，而不会 对货币市场造成扰乱。 鲍威尔并未说明QT最终的目标规模，但他强调："到目前为止，我们的充足储备金体系在执行货币政策、维护经济和金融稳定方面，已被证 明非常有效。" 当地时间周二，美联储主席鲍威尔表示， 美联储长期推进的资产负债表缩减计划，也就是所谓的量化紧缩(QT)，可能即将接近尾声。 鲍威尔指出，鉴于美联储一直以来的目标是让金融体系保持足够的流动性，以便对短期利率进行有效控制并维持货币市场的正常波动。"我 们可能在未来数月接近这一节点，我们正密切监测一系列指标，以判断这一时刻是否已经到来。" 在费城出举行的美商业经济协会上，鲍威尔提到： "一些迹象显示，流动性状况正逐步趋紧，包括回购利率普遍上升，以及在特定日期出现 更明显但暂时性的市场压力。" 自2022年中期以来，美联储一直通过量化紧缩计划收回流动性，目的是消化疫情期间向市场注入的巨额资金。当时，美联储大规模购买国 债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)，以在短期利率接近零时稳定市场并提供刺激。 这一系列资产购买操作使美联储的资产负债表规模 ...