Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of A-share listed companies in 2024 shows a slight decline in revenue and profit, with significant industry performance divergence, particularly in the real estate sector which remains under pressure [1][2][5]. Industry Performance Summary - A total of 5402 listed companies reported a revenue of 71.92 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23%, and a net profit of 5.21 trillion yuan, down 2.98% [2][5]. - The information technology sector led with an 11% revenue growth, while the real estate sector experienced the largest decline at -21% [1][5][6]. - Among the listed companies, 4029 achieved profitability, representing 75% of the total, with 2567 companies showing a year-on-year profit increase [2][5]. Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector's typical listed companies saw a revenue drop of 17% in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 10%, down 2 percentage points from the previous year [10][13]. - The sales area of new residential properties fell by 12.9%, and sales revenue decreased by 17.1%, indicating ongoing market challenges [9]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to high land costs, increased sales pressure, and the need for price reductions to stimulate sales [14][17]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025 after three years of adjustment, with companies focusing on strategic transformations to enhance profitability [1][19]. - Companies are shifting their focus towards operational efficiency, project selection, and product quality to navigate through the current downturn [17][19]. - Several firms are exploring new growth avenues, such as property management and diversified business models, to ensure sustainable development [18][19].

5 月百强销售和基本面解读 20250531 摘要 2025 年 5 月重点城市新增供应量同比、环比均显著下降，为近七年同 期最低水平，总供应量不足 700 万平方米，同比下降 32%，环比下降 38%，表明市场供应受抑制，土地成交持续下滑。 企业端销售业绩分化明显，绿城中国、中海、金茂等头部企业受益于核 心区域优质地块的货量供应，销售业绩表现突出，通过滚雪球效应不断 扩大优势。 一线城市新房成交以上海和广州为首，5 月成交规模均超 50 万方，保持 同环比正增长；二手房市场上海和北京单月成交规模均超过 120 万平方 米，以刚需、刚改需求驱动。 二三线城市新房市场整体表现不佳，成交面积环比微降 3%，同比下降 13%。热点二线城市如成都、武汉、天津、西安和杭州等地前五月累计 同比增幅超过 10%，但 5 月份环比仍有小幅回调。 5 月新房市场平均开盘去化率为 41%，环比增长 1 个百分点，同比增长 15 个百分点，但城市间分化明显，厦门、成都和重庆等城市去化率超过 60%，主要得益于供应影响和网红盘入市。 Q&A 2025 年 5 月百强房企的销售情况如何？ 根据克而瑞发布的数据，2025 年 5 月百强 ...

⚫ 风险提示：调控政策超预期收紧，销售去化不及预期；物管行业人工成本上行超预期。 行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 06 月 02 日 一季末房贷余额降幅收窄，保利完成 定向可转债发行 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/05/24-2025/05/30） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比小幅下降，新房成交推盘比回升。上周（25/5/24- 25/5/30）34 个重点城市新房合计成交 276 万平米，环比-3%；其中，一二线环比-5%、 三四线环比+34%；5 月一手房月成交同比-7%，较 4 月+10pct；其中，一二线同比- 9%、三四线同比+7%，分 ...

智通财经APP获悉，6月2日，克而瑞地产研究发文称，6月供给"缩量提质"预期成交延续弱复苏，新房成交大概 率环比持增增，同比持平。6月供应同环比齐降重回阶段低位，一二线城市迎阶段性回落，三四线低位修复； 沪深杭蓉等热点城市全面回调，供给约束愈发显著。从供给结构来看，重点城市刚需、改善、高端占比结构为 34%、55%和12%，呈现出以改善为主，刚需为辅的供应结构。半数以上城市以主城为供应主力。 规模：6月28城供应同比降25%约束加剧 沪深杭蓉等全面回调 6月房企推盘积极性稳步回落，整体供给量与今年1月同期持平，土地对新房供给约束日益显著：据CRIC调 研，6月28个重点城市预计新增商品住宅供应面积547万平方米，环比下降14%，同比下跌47%，2025年上半年 累计同比下降25%。 三四线城市供应总量低位企稳。6月预计新增供应27万平方米，环比增16%，但同比仍降37%，上半年累计同比 下降27%仍高于平均水平。徐州、常州本月迎阶段性回升;而泉州单月0供应，无锡同比降幅超50%，反映非核 心三四线市场流动性枯竭，房企推盘积极性普遍不高。 | 能級 | 城市 | 2025年6月预估 | 环比 | 同席 | 20 ...

Core Insights - In May, new home prices in major Chinese cities continued to show structural increases, while second-hand home prices experienced a downward trend [1][2] - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,815 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.30% and a year-on-year increase of 2.56% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,794 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.24% [1] New Home Market - The new home market displayed a differentiated trend, with core cities seeing active transactions driven by high-quality improvement projects, while some existing projects faced significant pressure [1][2] - In May, new home prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.90%, while second-tier cities saw a slight increase of 0.06%. In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decrease of 0.11% [1] - Shanghai and Guangzhou led the price increases among 100 cities, with respective month-on-month increases of 1.47% and 1.25% [1] Second-Hand Home Market - The transaction volume in the second-hand home market decreased month-on-month, with a trend of "trading at lower prices" dominating the market [1][2] - The month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices slightly widened in May [1] Policy and Market Outlook - Financial policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market were implemented in early May, including reductions in housing provident fund loan rates and LPR for loans over five years, which lowered purchasing costs [2] - The real estate policies are expected to maintain a loose tone in June, with a focus on the implementation of special bonds for land acquisition and urban village renovations [2] - As the mid-year sales period approaches, real estate companies are likely to increase their sales efforts and promotional activities, particularly in core cities, although market differentiation among cities and projects is expected to continue [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market in China has shown signs of stabilization in May 2025, with a significant drop in new housing supply, while transaction volumes remained stable compared to April, and year-on-year sales showed positive growth [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 294.58 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, with the decline slightly narrowing compared to April [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, these companies recorded a total sales turnover of 1,312.75 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.1% [1]. - More than half of the top 100 companies saw month-on-month performance improvements in May, with 22 companies experiencing increases greater than 30% [1]. Group 2: Sales Thresholds - The sales thresholds for the top 100 real estate companies in May 2025 were as follows: 34.98 billion yuan for the top 10, 15.15 billion yuan for the top 20, 9.53 billion yuan for the top 30, 6.14 billion yuan for the top 50, and 2.25 billion yuan for the top 100 [6]. - The sales threshold for the top 30 companies saw the highest year-on-year growth at 5.3%, followed by the top 50 at 3%, while the top 100 saw a minimal increase of 0.2% [6]. Group 3: Tiered Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, only the tier of companies ranked 31-50 among the top 100 saw a year-on-year increase in cumulative sales, achieving a growth of 4.9%, while all other tiers experienced declines, with the top 4-10 tier seeing the largest drop at 13.3% [9]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to June, it is anticipated that the year-end push from real estate companies, combined with improved supply quality, will support a continued steady recovery in transaction volumes, with month-on-month increases expected [12]. - In major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, supply constraints are becoming more pronounced, limiting transaction volumes [12]. - Cities that previously underwent significant adjustments, such as Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Nanjing, are expected to stabilize, while some weaker second-tier cities face ongoing high inventory challenges [12].

导 读 ☉ 文／克而瑞研究中心 | | | | 2025年1-5月 ·中国房地产企业 | | 三十八年 · 德国语 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 销售榜TOP100 | | | | 排名 | 企业简称 | 全口径金额 | 排名 | 企业简称 | 权益金额 | | | | (亿元) | | | (17.7L) | | 1 | 保利发展 | 1161.1 | 1 | 保利发展 | 915.0 | | 2 | 中海地产 | 903.8 | 2 | 中海地产 | 831.5 | | 3 | 华润置地 | 868. 5 | 3 | 中润置地 | 580. 8 | | 4 | 招商蛇口 | 671.3 | 4 | 招商蛇口 | 459.2 | | 5 | 绿城中国 | 653. 3 | 5 | 绿城中国 | 443.8 | | 6 | 万科地产 | 570. 4 | 6 | 建发房产 | 419.5 | | 7 | 建发房产 | 561.0 | 7 | 万科地产 | 370. 8 | | 8 | 越秀地产 | 507.0 | 8 | 越秀地产 | 304. ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to continue its downward trend into 2025, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, as predicted by Li Ka-shing in 2018 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to April 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 29,252 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2% [2]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 28,067 billion yuan, down 28.3%, with residential sales revenue declining by 31.1% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities experienced a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, with 12 cities seeing a drop of over 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The real estate market is expected to undergo three major changes in the second half of 2025: 1. Price differentiation will occur, with previously declining prices in second and third-tier cities stabilizing, while core areas of first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen will start to see price corrections [6]. 2. The government will intensify market rescue efforts, with more policies expected to be introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and further reductions in mortgage rates [6]. 3. A significant reshuffling of real estate companies is anticipated, particularly affecting those with high debt ratios (70%-80%) that are facing financial difficulties [8]. Group 3: Li Ka-shing's Insights - Li Ka-shing's 2018 prediction highlighted that high property prices in mainland China were unsustainable and would eventually lead to a return to housing's fundamental purpose, warning investors to be cautious [4]. - He also indicated that companies with high debt and declining sales would face bankruptcy or restructuring, while financially stable firms would survive [4].

一线城市，上海和深圳有望率先企稳。 从租售比和二手房成交看，一线城市整体差异不大。虽然深圳的租金回报率相对偏低，但其租金价格更 抗跌。北京、上海、广州、深圳二手房成交占比分别为66.4%、63.2%、60.6%、64.6%，均已接近 稳态水平，较2024年全年分别提高4.2、6.4、0.1和7.6个百分点。 上海和深圳的库存去化周期明显好于北京和广州，新房去化周期分别为9.7和13.1个月，其中核心城区 库存已降至10个月左右。北京、广州的新房去化周期分别为19.9和23.7个月，仍高于18个月的库存警 戒线。 一线城市，上海和深圳有望率先企稳；二线城市，成都、呼和浩特、南昌的企稳条件更为 成熟。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 基于 《房地产市场筑底还有多远》 中所提出的判断房地产市场企稳的三个指标，我们进一步对一线城 市和二线城市进行比较，分析可能率先企稳的几个城市。 一线城市的库存积压主要集中在远郊地区。 北京、上海、广州、深圳核心城区的狭义库存去化周期分 别为17.6、10.3、21.0、8.6个月，非核心城区去化周期分别为40.1、17.1、27.5、16.3个月。 上海和深圳的土拍市场表现也更好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major Chinese cities is experiencing a moderate recovery driven by policy support, with new home sales showing significant year-on-year growth, while the second-hand home market is facing seasonal fluctuations and varying performance across cities [1][3][4]. Group 1: New Home Market Performance - In Beijing, from May 1 to May 28, new home transactions reached 3,340 units, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [1]. - The cumulative new home sales in seven key cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, and Qingdao) totaled 29,000 units in the same period, indicating a better performance compared to the previous year [3]. - Shanghai's new home sales were 10,891 units, with a month-on-month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3]. Group 2: Second-Hand Home Market Trends - In Beijing, the second-hand home market saw a total of 12,257 transactions from May 1 to May 28, which is a month-on-month decrease of 12.9% but a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [2]. - Other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen also experienced month-on-month declines in second-hand home sales, with Shanghai down 11.7% and Shenzhen down 21.1%, while both cities showed year-on-year increases [3]. Group 3: Policy Support for Housing Consumption - Recent policies across various provinces, including Fujian, Henan, and Shanghai, aim to boost housing consumption by reducing restrictive measures and enhancing purchasing incentives [6][7]. - The adjustment of public housing fund loan rates and the reduction of mortgage rates are expected to lower the cost of home purchases for residents [6]. - The central government's emphasis on stabilizing housing consumption is seen as a crucial part of broader economic stimulus efforts, with expectations for more detailed policies to emerge [7].