本周二，金属市场延续周一涨势全面爆发。伦镍领衔工业金属大涨，盘中一度涨超9%，纽约期银盘中涨超6%，逼近一周前所创的盘中最高纪录，伦 铜在周一史上首次突破1.3万美元关口后进一步走高，周二盘中涨超3%，连续两日创历史新高。纽约期金盘中涨超1%，抹平上周一芝商所（CME） 提高交易保证金以来多数跌幅，向圣诞节前所创的最高纪录靠近。 中国投资者成为本轮金属涨势的重要推手。交易动态显示，包括镍、铜和锡在内的金属价格在亚洲时段大幅跳涨，交易量激增，上海期货交易所夜 盘开盘后再次拉升。周二日间收盘时，沪银涨超7%，沪铜、沪锡、沪镍涨超4%，夜盘开盘，沪镍涨近5%，沪银涨近3%，沪锡涨超2%，沪铜涨超 1%。 特朗普政府潜在关税政策持续发酵。据一些报道，美国总统特朗普考虑2027年对进口铜征收约15%的关税，2028年提高至30%。投资者对美国提高关 税的预期导致大量铜库存涌入美国。据CME数据，美国铜库存自2025年4月以来增长超过四倍，截至1月2日达到45.345万吨，而全球其他地区供应告 急。 地缘政治风险推升避险需求。据新华社报道，美国1月3日上周六凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控 ...

记者丨张嘉钰 编辑丨江佩佩 1月6日，美股三大指数开盘涨跌互现，截至23:00，三大指数全线转涨，道琼斯指数涨0.21%，标普500 指数涨0.36%，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.46%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯丁 平均 | 49077.93 | 100.75 | 0.21% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23503.69 | 107.87 | 0.46% | | 标普500 | 6926.92 | 24.87 | 0.36% | | 纳斯达克100 | 25571.44 | 170.12 | 0.67% | | 万得美国科技七巨头指数 | 66274.40 | 126.01 | 0.19% | | 万得中概科技龙头指数 | 4529.16 | 13.62 | 0.30% | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7954.56 | 56.32 | 0.71% | 美股存储概念股大涨，闪迪涨22.79%股价创盘中历史新高，美光科技涨7%，报334美元/股，再创历史 新高，总市值突破3700亿美元。微芯科技涨超8%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨 ...

Market Overview - As of January 6, US stock indices showed mixed performance at the opening, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.21%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.46% [1] - The current prices for major indices are: Dow Jones at 49077.93, Nasdaq at 23503.69, and S&P 500 at 6926.92 [2] Technology Sector - The technology sector saw varied performance among major companies, with Nvidia rising nearly 3% and Amazon increasing over 2%, while Apple and Tesla both dropped over 3% [2] - Tesla's market value decreased by approximately 310 billion yuan following the announcement of new vehicle purchase plans, including a down payment starting at 79,900 yuan for Model 3/Y [2] Semiconductor Stocks - Semiconductor stocks experienced significant gains, with SanDisk rising by 22.79% to reach a new all-time high, Micron Technology increasing by 7% to $334 per share, and Microchip Technology up over 8% [3] - Other notable performers included Texas Instruments and Lam Research, which rose by 5.97% and 5.79%, respectively [3] Commodity Market - In the commodities market, spot silver surpassed $80 per ounce, increasing by over 4.9%, while spot gold rose by 0.87% to $4487.678 per ounce [4][5] - The year-to-date performance for gold and silver shows increases of 3.92% and 12.18%, respectively [5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective rise, with Bitcoin reaching $94125.8, up by 1.56%, and Ethereum increasing to $3292.9, up by 4.55% [6][7] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 120,000 individuals experienced liquidation in the crypto market [6] Economic Indicators - Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for a "fine-tuning" strategy in future interest rate decisions, highlighting the importance of data-driven policies amid dual risks of unemployment and inflation [8] - Analysts noted that the US dollar is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions and disappointing ISM manufacturing data, which may lead to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve if employment data continues to weaken [8]

金价小幅走高，受避险需求及美联储降息预期的推动，维持在一周高点附近。德国商业银行的Carsten Fritsch表示："美国上周末对委内瑞拉的军事干预提供了助力，导致避险需求走强。此外，美国12月ISM 制造业指数表现令人失望，跌至14个月低点。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

报告导读： 地缘局势增加供给不确定性 。 拉美地区是全球矿产资源核心供给地之一，地 缘局势紧张可能引发相关区域政策波动，进而导致供应不确定性增加 。 贵金属：贵金属因交易因素宽幅震荡，趋势未改。 上周（ 1 月 2 日当周） COMEX 黄金价格突破 4500 美金 / 盎司后明显回撤，伦敦现货白银价格突破 83 美元 / 盎司后回撤，铂、钯价格宽幅震荡。展望 2026 年，我们认为央行购金、黄金 ETF 持仓份额上升和美联储降息预期，将继续成为支撑黄金价格的 重要因素，关注 地缘局势带来的 地缘政治风险上行。白银来看，白银库存的短缺持续存在，非交割月走势或趋缓。 铜：宏观叠加供给扰动，铜价或偏强震荡。 市场情绪波动，周内铜价呈现宽幅震荡。近期美国就业数据等即将披露，特朗普或于 1 月公布下一任美联储主席 人选，市场对美国流动性宽松预期有望提升。供应端，智利 Mantoverde 铜矿工会表示将采取罢工行动，预计维持约 30% 的正常产能；受厄瓜多尔政局影 响，米拉多铜矿二期工程或延期。此外，需关注拉美铜矿供给端扰动。 铝：铝价再创新高，宏观利好与基本面弱势博弈。 宏观政策积极，周内铝价再创新 高。 供给侧， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to January 4, foreign and domestic precious metals showed mixed performance, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio continuing to decline. The year - end correction in precious metals was driven by capital behavior, market panic, and CME's margin hike, leading to profit - taking and a long - position stampede. In the short term, geopolitical events, upcoming PMI, and non - farm payroll data may affect precious metal prices. The medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, but overall volatility may increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View - **Price Performance**: From December 22 to January 4, COMEX gold futures fell 1.03% to $4341.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 7.08% to $72.27 per ounce. Domestically, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.27% to 977.56 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 11.92% to 17,074 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Economic Data**: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate reached 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a two - year high. However, due to the previous government shutdown, the market is cautious about the reliability and comparability of these data [4][21]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: In the December FOMC meeting, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were three dissenting votes. The market expects the near - term rate - cut pace to slow or pause, while the policy path in H2 2026 depends on economic data and the new Fed chair's policy stance [4][23]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US shows a diplomatic negotiation attitude on the Ukraine issue but takes military action in Venezuela, which seriously impacts international relations. Geopolitical instability is a major factor affecting precious metal prices [4][25]. 3.2 Macro - **GDP Growth**: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate was 4.3%, with a total GDP of $7.79 trillion. Personal consumption, exports, and government spending contributed to growth, while non - residential fixed investment slowed, residential investment decreased, and private inventory investment dragged down growth [21]. - **Market Attitude**: Despite the strong GDP data, the market is cautious due to the previous government shutdown causing a data vacuum [21]. 3.3 Interest Rate Cut Expectations - **FOMC Meeting**: In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but three members opposed it. The change in wording in the policy statement indicates a higher threshold for future rate cuts [23]. - **Dot - Plot Projection**: The median projection in the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026. Fed Chair Powell said the current policy rate is in the "neutral" range [23]. - **Political Uncertainty**: Powell's term ends in May 2026. Some potential successors may support more aggressive rate cuts, leading to a split in market expectations [23]. 3.4 Geopolitics - **Ukraine Issue**: Trump and Zelensky reached about 95% consensus on a "20 - point peace plan" but the territorial issue remains unresolved. The US and Russia have formed a working group [25]. - **Venezuela Situation**: The US launched an air strike on Caracas on January 3, which was strongly opposed by the international community. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on this [25]. - **Greenland Claim**: Trump's claim to Greenland has drawn strong protests from Denmark [25].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月06日16时48分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨1.27%，沪银主力收涨7.06%，铂金主力收涨6.02%，钯金主力收涨涨5.16%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美国抓捕马 杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水 平。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【1月6日美元走势震荡，投资者权衡地缘局势与美国疲软数据】分析师指出，美元走势正陷入震荡，投 资者在权衡挥之不去的地缘政治紧张局势与疲软的美国数据。市场对潜在地缘政治进展保持谨慎，或加 剧美元波动。 周一低于预期的ISM制造业报告，加剧了市场对增长动力放缓的担忧。分析师表示，若 再有疲软数据，或推高市场对美联储今年追加降息的预期。 本周三将公布ISM服务业报告和职位空缺 及劳动力流动调查，周五将公布非农就业报告。 ...

摘要周二(1月6日)欧洲时段，现货黄金在多重利好支撑下，一度冲高至一周峰值4474.11美元/盎司，随 后因市场逢高抛售回落，现交投于4455美元附近。美军打击委内瑞拉、沙特与阿联酋政治紧张、伊朗动 荡及俄乌冲突持续，推高地缘政治风险并为金价注入风险溢价。同时，美联储鸽派预期升温，进一步巩 固了黄金的上涨势头。 【黄金技术分析】 从技术面来看，金价突破100小时简单移动平均线(SMA，4375.38)，这一突破可视为多头的重要催化信 号。 在小时图中，移动平均收敛散度指标(MACD)柱状线已由负转正并小幅抬升，MACD线略高于零轴附近 的信号线，显示上涨动能正在增强。 与此同时，相对强弱指数(RSI)位于60附近，进一步印证了当前稳健的上涨动力。 由于黄金价格稳居上行的100小时SMA上方，预计日内回调幅度有限，近期走势仍偏向积极。 周二(1月6日)欧洲时段，现货黄金在多重利好支撑下，一度冲高至一周峰值4474.11美元/盎司，随后因 市场逢高抛售回落，现交投于4455美元附近。美军打击委内瑞拉、沙特与阿联酋政治紧张、伊朗动荡及 俄乌冲突持续，推高地缘政治风险并为金价注入风险溢价。同时，美联储鸽派预期升温，进 ...

技术面显示支撑稳健 经济数据分化，但对黄金多头影响有限 近期美国经济数据表现冷热不一。S&P Global制造业PMI维持扩张，而ISM制造业PMI显示收缩。数据 分化未改变市场对美联储宽松政策的预期，投资者对黄金保持看多态度，支撑价格维持高位。 非农就业数据是市场关注核心 本周五美国非农就业数据仍是市场短期焦点。数据公布可能对黄金价格形成方向性推动。高位小幅回落 更多属于技术整理，而非趋势逆转。投资者应关注数据公布后的价格变化，以把握短期交易机会。 UNForex 1月6日讯（分析师Stephen）周二欧洲早盘，黄金价格在触及一周高点后小幅回落，目前仍稳 守在 4450美元上方。此次回落主要源于技术性获利了结，而非趋势性疲软。整体多头格局仍然稳固， 短期震荡属于正常调整。 地缘政治风险持续支撑金价 全球地缘政治紧张局势仍未缓解，南美潜在军事冲突、中东地区摩擦以及俄乌战争持续，使得黄金避险 属性得到强化。资金流入避险资产，为高位震荡中的黄金提供稳定支撑。 美联储降息预期利好非收益资产 投资者预计美联储将在2026年内实施至少两次降息。低利率环境降低持有黄金的机会成本，使黄金价格 受益明显。即便短期内美元走势平 ...