Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fiscal budget reflects low revenue growth targets due to domestic and international pressures, while maintaining high expenditure levels to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments [1][5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Targets - For the first budget, the 2025 general public budget revenue and expenditure growth targets are set at 0.1% and 4.4% respectively, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2]. - The share of spending on livelihood and technology in the general public budget has increased, with livelihood spending accounting for 37.1% and technology spending reaching a historical high of 4.2% [2]. - For the second budget, the growth target for government fund revenue is 0.7%, while expenditure growth is set to increase to 23.1%, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [2]. Fiscal Deficit Analysis - The estimated broad fiscal deficit for 2025 is approximately 11.4 trillion, corresponding to a broad deficit rate of about 8.0%, marking the highest level historically [3]. - The implied nominal GDP for 2025 is calculated to be 141.5 trillion, with a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 4.9% [3]. Recent Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Situation - In January-February, general public budget revenue declined, primarily due to negative growth in tax revenue, influenced by the early timing of the Spring Festival [4]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4%, with a notable acceleration in government debt issuance, indicating a proactive fiscal approach [4]. - Expenditures in technology (10.6%), education (7.7%), and social security and employment (6.7%) have shown significant growth, reflecting strong support for livelihood and technological innovation [4].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Context - In 2025, China plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4.0% and an additional government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan[1] - China's fiscal deficit rate is currently below the average level, with developed countries and emerging markets projected at 4.5% and 5.5% respectively for 2025, indicating that China's target is not excessively high[2] - The central government's debt burden rate is approximately 25.3%, which is relatively low compared to major global economies, providing ample room for leveraging[3] Group 2: Government Debt and Financial Assets - By the end of 2025, the total government debt is estimated to reach about 96.0 trillion yuan, approximately 66.5% of GDP, significantly lower than the debt burden rates of the US (124.1%), Japan (245.7%), and the EU (83.2%)[4] - The net financial assets of the Chinese government were recorded at 109.3 trillion yuan in 2022, supporting the capacity for large-scale borrowing[4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Financing Costs - The government plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to lower financing costs, allowing for the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds at a lower cost[5] - In 2024, government interest payments accounted for 4.5% of the general public budget expenditure, and this is projected to rise to about 5.0% in 2025, still lower than the IMF's estimates for developed and emerging markets[5] Group 4: Economic Growth and Structural Transformation - The proactive fiscal policy aims to counter short-term economic challenges while promoting long-term structural transformation, with a target economic growth rate of 5% for 2025[6][7] - The shift in fiscal spending towards consumption is expected to enhance domestic demand, with household deposits reaching 152.2 trillion yuan, indicating significant consumption potential[8] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds in 2025, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement programs, reflecting a focus on boosting consumption[8] Group 5: Debt Management and Investment Space - The ongoing debt management efforts are expected to enhance transparency and reduce risks, while also freeing up investment space for key sectors such as technology and green initiatives[9][10] - The fiscal policy is designed to guide the economy towards an innovation-driven model, with a budget allocation of 1.2 trillion yuan for scientific and technological expenditures in 2025[11]

每周思考总第620期 《 新高如期兑现，首次左侧预警 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月16日累计收益7.79%。 中小市值板块择时观点： 短期交易中的政策窗口期尾声阶段，同步于主板开启谨慎博弈策略，自1月 翻多后首次建议重回 中等仓位 ，风格建议转向均衡； 短期动量（趋势）模型建议关注行业：无。 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 观点简述： 上周市场如期上行创出本轮新高，沪深300指数涨幅1.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.39%，中证500指 数周涨幅1.43%。上周我们标题观点提示"A股仍在政策窗口期"，实际A股上周五大涨重要催化因素也 是周四央行关于降准降息的最新强调表态。 基本面上，中国经济仍只是温和企稳。 国内方面，上周发布的2月货币供应数据整体喜忧参半， 社融同比回升而M1同比回落，表明国内经济仍在底部夯实状态而非强劲反转走强， 重申留意三月美 国全球关税加征后对中国外需的更显著冲击，在此阶段央行重提"年内择 ...

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者陈汐 刘建中 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正 性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的必读刊物。 本文来自微信公众号： 财经杂志 ，作者：陈汐、刘建中（《财经》产业研究中心研究员），编辑：刘建中，责编：王宁，原文标题：《黄金价格涨 跌的规律》，题图来自：视觉中国 本文是《黄金研究三部曲》的第二篇。第一篇为 《跨越两千年，黄金还保值吗》 ，其主要结论是，"从西汉到金本位解体之前，黄金的购买力基本稳 定；而在金本位解体后，黄金大幅跑赢通胀。" 虽然从长期看黄金能跑赢通胀，但黄金价格波动幅度大，投资时机不佳可能造成巨大损失。 1980年1月黄金均价为755美元/盎司，之后出现了20年的黄金熊市，1999年12月黄金均价为280美元/盎司，跌幅63%。 2011年11月黄金均价为1771美元/盎司，之后是四年熊市，2015年12月黄金均价1062美元/盎司，跌幅40%。 一、对于现代人，黄金有什么用？ 黄金在历史上成为重要的支付手段和财富贮藏手段，具有必然性。财富 ...

3月12日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议。会议讨论通过《国务院2025年重点工作分工方 案》，审议通过《国务院关于修改〈快递暂行条例》的决定(草案)》。 会议指出，刚刚闭幕的十四届全国人大三次会议审议通过的《政府工作报告》，明确了全年经济社会发展 目标任务。各部门、各单位要细化措施加快落实，与各种不确定因素抢时间，紧抓快干、靠前发力。 会议指出，针对快递包装问题对《快递暂行条例》进行专项修改，有利于推动快递包装绿色化、减量化、 可循环，加快形成绿色生产和生活方式。要完善快递包装绿色转型的综合性支持政策。 快递行业联系着生产与消费，支撑了我国网络零售行业发展，对稳就业保民生、畅通经济循环发挥了重要 作用。但快递包装消耗了大量资源，对资源环境形成较大压力。 完善快递包装绿色转型的综合性支持政策 与各种不确定因素抢时间 本次会议讨论通过《国务院2025年重点工作分工方案》。会议指出，各部门、各单位要主动对号入座，以 更加强烈的担当、更加积极的作为，把各项工作任务完成好，以实干实绩兑现向人民作出的庄严承诺。要 细化措施加快落实，与各种不确定因素抢时间，紧抓快干、靠前发力。同时密切跟踪形势变化，做好政策 储备， ...

Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year[7] - The total fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to 2024[7] Budgetary Performance in 2024 - The national general public budget revenue for 2024 was 21,970.21 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget, with a 1.3% increase from 2023[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.4% to 17,497.20 billion yuan, while non-tax revenue surged by 25.4% to 4,473.01 billion yuan[2] - General public budget expenditure reached 28,461.23 billion yuan, completing 99.7% of the budget, with a growth of 3.6%[3] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue fell by 12.2% to 62,090.40 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Total government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, completing 84.4% of the budget, with a slight increase of 0.2%[4] State-Owned Capital Management - State-owned capital operating budget revenue exceeded expectations at 6,782.88 billion yuan, achieving 114.5% of the budget, with a modest growth of 0.6%[5] - Expenditure in this budget decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan[5] Social Insurance Fund Stability - Social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.70 billion yuan, surpassing the budget by 1.2%, with a growth of 5.2%[6] - Expenditure in this fund was 106,061.28 billion yuan, completing 99.3% of the budget, reflecting a 7% increase[6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a focus on potential investment opportunities following the "Two Sessions" policy signals [3]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector has returned to an expansion phase, with a PMI of 50.2 in February 2025, indicating improved production and new orders [8]. - The construction industry has shown significant improvement, with a PMI of 52.7 in February 2025, driven by post-holiday resumption of work and supportive fiscal policies [13]. - There has been a notable increase in corporate credit demand, with new RMB loans reaching 4.78 trillion yuan in January 2025, reflecting a recovery in the real economy [16]. - The government work report highlights a commitment to maintaining a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, alongside a historic high fiscal deficit rate of 4% [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February 2025, with production and new orders indices at 52.5 and 51.1 respectively, indicating a return to expansion [8]. - Export orders have improved, with a new export orders index at 48.6, suggesting better-than-expected export performance despite tariff impacts [8]. 2. Significant Growth in Corporate Credit - In January 2025, the new social financing scale reached 7.06 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans contributing significantly to this growth [16]. - The increase in corporate credit demand is attributed to enhanced confidence in the economy and supportive government policies [23]. 3. Government Work Report Highlights - The report sets a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, maintaining consistency with previous years [27]. - The fiscal deficit rate is set to rise to 4% in 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to fiscal expansion [28]. - The government plans to increase the special bond quota to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with a focus on infrastructure and debt resolution [29].

美国财政部部长贝森特（资料图，Reuters） 美国财政部部长贝森特将关税定位为国际经济体系平衡的修正，表示美国的强劲消费一直吸收陷入需 求不足的其他国家的过剩供应，而强大的军事力量则弥补了其他国家国防开支的不足…… 美国财政部部长贝森特3月6日在就任后的首次演讲中说明了今后的经济政策。将放松金融监管、关税和 经济制裁定位为三大重要支柱。强调称"用关税来反击"中国的产能过剩，表示关税上调导致物价上涨 是"一次性的价格调整"，表现出不将其视为问题的态度。 贝森特在美国纽约经济俱乐部主办的会议上发表演讲。 市场警惕对加拿大和墨西哥等国的关税提高将导致通货膨胀率上升和经济减速，股价出现暴跌。在贝森 特演讲之前，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，将暂缓提高对墨西哥进口商品的关税。 在演讲后的提问中被问及对物价的影响时，贝森特解释称，转嫁到国内价格上的现象不会持续发生，表 示希望这只是暂时的影响。 贝森特还呼吁放宽以金融为中心的监管。对拜登前政府批评称，"过去几年的过度政治监管忽视了重大 风险，阻碍了经济增长，扼杀了技术创新"。 指出雷曼危机后推进的金融机构自有资本监管"应反映当前的经济需求"。提出谨慎看法认为，为了防止 ...

在分别于3月3日、3月4日召开的全国政协与全国人大新闻发布会上，一系列串烧信息和数据成为了今年全国两会的"开场白"： 点击图片▲立即收听 " 强调上一轮刺激的效果，预告下一轮刺激蓄势待发，构成了本次全国两会的特别基调。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 全国两会，问政中国，我们正式进入了"两会时间"。 承前启后，强调上一轮刺激的效果，预告下一轮刺激蓄势待发，构成了本次全国两会的特别基调，亦构成了人们对本次全国两会的"特殊期待"。 以下是吴晓波频道特别关注的五大要点，一份较为个性化的两会前瞻，今天分享给大家。 "全国国内生产总值超过134万亿元，增速达到5%……" "DeepSeek公司取得的重大进展，代表着由中青年组成的主创团队正在挑起中国科技事业进步的大梁……" "人形机器人春晚扭秧歌……工业机器人装机量占全球过半……" "推动弥合科技鸿沟，避免科技创新成为'富国和富人的游戏'……" "2025年是中欧建交50周年……中欧没有根本利害冲突，也没有地缘政治矛盾，是相互成就的伙伴。" "投资中国就是投资未来……" 谈及当下的热点话题与宏观变化，是近年来这两场发布会的惯例。相比往年，今年的议题和数据， ...

2月2 6日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在立法会发表2 0 2 5至2 0 2 6年度财政预算案，其中 提到为控制政府经营开支2 0 2 5 / 2 0 2 6年度 所有行政、立法、司法机关及区议会全体人员将一 致冻薪，包括行政长官李家超。 什么是冻薪？ 为了以足够的薪金来吸引、鼓励或挽留人才为香港市民服务，特区政府每年都会进行 调查来调整公务员的薪酬情况。正常情况下，特区政府公务员无论升职与否，每年都 会 在 薪 酬 调 整 中 进 行 加 薪 。 冻 薪 则 是 指 当 年 薪 酬 保 持 不 变 。 过 去 2 6 年 ， 因 S A RS 非 典、2 0 0 8年金融海啸及新冠疫情，香港公务员曾有5年冻薪。 香港预计今年经济增长2%—3% 陈茂波表示，过去一年香港迎来了不少正面的发展，经济连续两年增长，就业市场稳定、通胀 温和、抢人才和抢企业成果丰硕、大型国际盛事相继在港举行、访港旅客人数显著增加，股市 近月气氛亦持续向好，市面气氛热闹。但香港也经历了不少的挑战，国际地缘政局干扰了贸 易、供应链、资金流和投资市场情绪；相对高息的环境持续令本地资产价格受到遏抑；旅客及 市民消费模式的转变继续影响零售及 ...