| | | 大涨背后的裂痕：今夏美国再现股债汇三杀？ 美股连续大涨，市场情绪再度转热，但大涨背后的裂痕已经出现。 当市场焦点从眼前的关税缓解转向减税，夏季美国市场将面临新的"股债汇三杀"风险。 花旗认为特朗普的政策原本是一套组合拳，其中： 也就是说DOGE和关税进展都不顺，而减税推进则愈发带来市场对债务的忧虑，尤其是外资： 当前财政赤字的背景：当前正值美国的期限溢价已经处于高位。历史上，期限溢价的飙升可能会持续较 长时间（ 图1），预计这种情况将再次出现，尤其是在预算问题成为焦点时。 外国投资者需求的挑战：外国投资者对美国国债的需求仍然是一个阻力，这进一步增加了风险。 而这个夏季可能会出现"减税+就业数据恶化"的基本面组合： 财政赤字扩大与经济数据疲软：今年夏天的风险是双重的： 一方面，随着财政赤字扩大，可能会出现另一轮期限溢价飙升； 另一方面，一些经济数据的疲软可能开始显现。这些因素可能会导致美联储的政策重新定价为更偏鸽派 （尤其是考虑到最近市场对2025年美联储降息预期从100个基点迅速调整到仅略高于50个基点）。 劳动力市场的季节性疲软：值得注意的是，我们即将进入劳动力市场数据季节性疲软的时期（见图 2 ...

Group 1 - The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) experienced a significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping 7-8% over two consecutive days in early May, marking a historical volatility record that affected overall Asian currency fluctuations [1] - The Central Bank of Taiwan stated that the appreciation was not due to pressure from the US, but rather driven by exporters concentrating their foreign exchange settlements [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies are unlikely to sell off their US dollar assets in the short term, despite the pressure from TWD appreciation and rising hedging costs, as US Treasury bonds remain a scarce long-duration asset [1][5] Group 2 - The next potential focus for currency movements in Asia includes the TWD and Malaysian ringgit (MYR), which are expected to benefit from high dollar deposit ratios and strong export settlement potential [2] - The South Korean won (KRW) is anticipated to have room for appreciation due to its high correlation with USD/CNY amid a downward trend in both currencies [2] - The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to perform solidly in the long term, supported by diversified asset allocation by the central bank and its AAA credit rating [2] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan (CNY) is projected to remain stable with a slight strengthening trend, as policymakers prefer a stable exchange rate path despite tariff pressures and capital outflow risks [2] - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is expected to maintain a strong position within its linked exchange rate system, bolstered by robust southbound capital inflows and significant liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority [2] - The Indian rupee (INR) faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and potential foreign exchange reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India, making it difficult to outperform other high-yield currencies in the short term [2] Group 4 - The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is considered undervalued, with expectations for a rebound due to manageable fiscal deficit risks and lower oil prices reducing subsidy expenditures [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US trade negotiation results were slightly better than market expectations, which had a certain positive impact on the market, but the impact on different industries varied. Some industries were expected to improve in demand, while others still faced challenges such as supply - demand imbalance [23][11] - For most commodities, the short - term market was affected by the negotiation results, but the medium - and long - term trends still depended on their own supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [16][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.63%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - **Macro News**: Sino - US canceled 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended 24% of the counter - tariffs; traders reduced bets on ECB rate cuts; Goldman Sachs expected the RMB exchange rate to rise to 7 yuan per US dollar within a year [2] - **Funding**: The margin trading balance decreased by 4.7 billion yuan; the overnight Shibor rate rose 7.5 bp to 1.4970%, etc. [2] - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: The emotional impact of the tariff policy has weakened. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index long positions on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined [5] - **News**: Sino - US reached an agreement on tariff adjustments in the Geneva economic and trade talks [5][6] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 43 billion yuan [6] - **Strategy**: The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the bond market faced short - term adjustment pressure. However, the short - end bonds were still cost - effective, and the long - end bonds were expected to have opportunities after the callback [6] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold fell 2.52%, Shanghai silver fell 0.75%, while COMEX gold rose 0.37%, and COMEX silver rose 0.48% [7] - **Market Outlook**: Maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish view on gold. In the short term, gold prices may continue to correct, but in the medium term, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit will drive gold prices up [7][8] - **Strategy**: Wait for the gold price to correct significantly and then buy on dips, focusing on the support at 740 yuan/g. Temporarily observe the silver price, with the reference range of 7553 - 8380 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver main contract [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After rising, the copper price fell back. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. The short - term copper price may fluctuate and adjust, with the reference range of 77200 - 78500 yuan/ton for the Shanghai copper main contract [11] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rebounded significantly. The domestic inventory decreased rapidly, but the consumption was seasonally weak. The price was expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 19600 - 20100 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract [12] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose. The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to increase, and the short - term zinc price may rebound [13][14] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead concentrate port inventory continued to increase, and the short - term lead price showed a strong - side shock [15] - **Nickel**: The nickel price fell significantly. The supply exceeded demand, and it was recommended to hold short positions, with the reference range of 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai nickel main contract [16] - **Tin**: The tin price rose. The supply was short - term tight but was expected to ease, and the tin price might decline if the demand remained weak, with the reference range of 250000 - 270000 yuan for the domestic main contract [17] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was stable. The short - term bottom was expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to downstream orders, with the reference range of 63400 - 64800 yuan/ton for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract [18] - **Alumina**: The price rose. The supply was disturbed, and the cost support declined. It was recommended to observe in the short term, with the reference range of 2650 - 3000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract AO2509 [19] - **Stainless Steel**: The price rose. The Sino - US negotiation boosted market confidence, and the supply was worried about the Philippine export ban. The demand was weak, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and demand recovery [20] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The Sino - US trade tariff reduction might boost market confidence, and the demand for plates might improve marginally in the short term [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply was slightly reduced, and the demand was expected to peak and decline. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [24] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price was stable, with inventory accumulation and expected weak operation. The soda ash supply decreased slightly, and the inventory was high. The medium - term supply was loose, and the price was expected to be weak [25][26] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of both rose. The manganese silicon was expected to stop falling and enter the shock stage, and the ferrosilicon was recommended to be observed or short - term tracked. The demand for both was expected to weaken [27][28] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was insufficient. It was recommended to observe and beware of price decline [31][32] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price rebounded. Thailand planned to postpone tapping, but the market had different expectations for production reduction. It was recommended to operate short - term and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [34][37] - **Crude Oil**: The price rose. The current oil price was considered to be in the high - valuation range, and it was recommended to short on rallies [38] - **Methanol and Urea**: The prices of both rose. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. It was recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [39][40][41] - **Styrene**: The price rose. The cost and supply were affected by multiple factors, and the price was treated as a rebound [42] - **PVC**: The price rose. The supply and demand were weak, and the short - term price was expected to rebound and the medium - term to fluctuate weakly [43] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rose. The industry was in the de - stocking stage, and it was recommended to buy on dips when the port de - stocking was confirmed [44] - **PTA and p - Xylene**: The prices of both rose. They were in the maintenance season, and it was recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [45][46] - **Polyethylene PE**: The price rose. The supply might be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price was expected to fluctuate [47][48] - **Polypropylene PP**: The price rose. The supply had no new capacity in May, and the demand was in the off - season. The price was expected to fluctuate weakly [49] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price was mainly stable. The short - term price fluctuated little, and it was recommended to short on rallies in the shock market [51] - **Eggs**: The price mostly rose. The supply pressure was large, and it was recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [52] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean rose. The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short term [53][54] - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil was affected by production and exports, and the US soybean oil was expected to be boosted by policies. The oils and fats were expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [55][57] - **Sugar**: The price rebounded. The domestic sugar price might be high - volatile in the short term but was likely to decline in the future [58][59] - **Cotton**: The price rebounded. The Sino - US negotiation boosted the short - term price, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with attention to inventory changes [60]

智通财经APP获悉，沙特阿美的净债务升至近三年来的最高水平，即使在削减了巨额股息之后，仍给这 家能源巨头的财务状况带来压力。根据周一的一份声明，沙特阿美截至今年第一季度末的净债务较2024 年年底增长了18%，至924亿里亚尔(约合246亿美元)。 此前，高盛中东和北非地区经济学家Farouk Soussa警告称，国际油价持续走低可能导致沙特面临严重的 财政赤字风险。他表示："若布伦特原油价格维持在每桶62美元左右，沙特的财政赤字很可能将从约300 亿至350亿美元飙升至700亿至750亿美元。" 沙特阿美在上周日公布的财报显示，受全球经济不确定性和油价波动影响，第一季度净利润同比下降 4.6%至975亿里亚尔(约合260亿美元);自由现金流为192亿美元，未能覆盖约214亿美元的股息支出。 沙特阿美的负债率从2024年底的4.5%升至3月底的5.3%。尽管与负债率接近20%的其他西方能源巨头相 比，这一比例仍然较低，但若油价持续低迷，这一比例可能会继续上涨。不过，相对较低的杠杆率为沙 特阿美提供了借入更多资金的空间。该公司首席财务官Ziad Al-Murshed在去年11月表示，该公司去年发 行了90亿美元 ...

美国财长贝森特：特朗普政府正"努力"控制财政赤字。 ...

贝森特：特朗普政府正"努力"控制财政赤字。(新浪财经) ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market situation is complex, affected by macro - policies, international trade (especially tariff policies), and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different asset classes show different trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the stock index market, it is recommended to buy certain index futures on dips; in the bond market, a cautious strategy is suggested for long - term bonds, while short - term bonds may have better performance; in the commodity market, various commodities have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][6]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in major indices, with a decrease in trading volume. Macro news includes CPI and PPI data, and trade data. The liquidity is relatively loose. Due to the weakening of the emotional impact of tariff policies and the potential for domestic policy adjustment, it is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips, or buy IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically. The unilateral strategy is to buy IF index futures on dips [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy exceeding expectations at the press conference, the long - term interest rate has already priced in the interest rate cut expectation, so a cautious strategy is recommended in the short term. The short - term bonds are expected to be more cost - effective. The long - term trend depends on the fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation process and economic data [5][6]. - **Precious Metals**: In the short term, precious metal prices are driven to be weak by the macro - environment and capital positions. However, considering the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year and the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, gold prices are expected to rise in the medium term after a short - term correction, and silver prices may show a strong performance when the Fed's easing expectations are concentrated. It is recommended to wait for a significant correction in gold prices and then buy long positions, and to wait and see or short on rallies for silver [7][8][9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is expected to face greater pressure for shock adjustment due to the uncertain result of Sino - US trade negotiations, the tight supply of copper ore and recycled copper, and the marginal weakening of consumption [11]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. Although the domestic policy exceeds expectations, the bearish atmosphere in the commodity market continues, and the consumption is marginally weakening. However, the improvement in downstream demand after the short - term price correction provides strong support [12]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, the near - end is relatively strong, but in the medium term, due to the limited downstream purchasing sustainability and the pressure of imported zinc ingots, the zinc price may decline [13][14]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate in a box in the medium term, and the short - term price shows a weak shock [15]. - **Nickel**: The continuous weakness of the nickel - iron price is the main driver for the decline of the nickel price. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to range from 115,000 to 130,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to loosen, and with the impact of tariffs on demand, the tin price may decline. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals lack positive drivers, and the price may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the operating disturbances of mines and salt factories, the price trend of lithium concentrate, and demand performance [18]. - **Alumina**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, the supply surplus trend is difficult to change, and attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread opportunity [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply is at a high level, the market has large inventory pressure, and the supply - demand imbalance brings downward pressure on the price [20]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The traditional peak season is over, the demand for finished steel products has shifted downward, and the price may maintain a weak shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policy changes, terminal demand trends, and cost support [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore has a slight decline in shipping volume, and the demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main 09 contract may still be weak [24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is weak, with inventory accumulation. The soda ash supply is at a high level with a slight decline, and the price is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: For manganese silicon, the price may stop falling and enter a shock stage, and it is recommended to wait and see. For ferrosilicon, the price may continue to decline, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price returns to range - bound. The implementation of Thailand's policy to postpone rubber tapping is the focus of the market. There are different views on the rise and fall of the price. It is recommended to adopt a neutral and short - term trading strategy [36][37][39]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been realized as expected. In the context of low inventory, buying on dips and short - term positive spread is a good position [40]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [41]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is expected to be relatively strong, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take partial profit on previous long positions and wait and see for new positions [42]. - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure, but the low port inventory may limit the decline. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The industry is in a short - term de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips when the port de - stocking is realized [45]. - **PTA and p - Xylene**: Both are in the maintenance season. There is a risk of negative feedback in the medium term, but the short - term valuation is supported. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive spread [46][47]. - **Polyethylene and Polypropylene**: The price of polyethylene is expected to fluctuate. The price of polypropylene is expected to be weakly volatile in May [48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The short - term pig price may be adjusted slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by emotions such as hoarding and second - fattening [51]. - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and soybean meal in China are expected to accumulate inventory in the next three months. The USDA report may have a short - term negative impact, but there may be a chance for a rebound after the negative news is exhausted [53][54]. - **Edible Oils**: The medium - term price of edible oils may decline, but the short - term may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the expected release of the new RVO rule in the United States [55][58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price may decline in the second and third quarters. The domestic sugar price may weaken in the future as the import profit window may reopen [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation process and inventory changes [61].

个人所得税也是减税重点。一方面，对在职的一线工人、服务人员等取消加班与小费收入的征税， 允许汽车贷款利息部分抵税；另一方面，对中老年群体取消社会保障福利的缴税，年收入超过2.5万美 元的老年人在领取社会保障福利时不再缴纳50%—85%的所得税，如果再加上本已存在的各种抵税与免 税项目，美国个人所得税降幅显著。 据美国税收基金会测算，新一轮减税可使2026年纳税人的税后收入平均增长2.9%，长期增长约 3.0%，由此有助于促进私人与家庭消费，企业投资积极性提升，美国GDP可长期增长约1.1%，公共财 政收入将获得明显改善。 但减税是否能够带来真实的经济增长存疑。一方面，相比首任任期，本次减税力度有所减弱，边际 效应可能递减；另一方面，新政策主要面向普通工薪阶层，庞大中产阶层受益有限，难以刺激消费增 量。 美国总统特朗普在首任任期内创下3.13万亿美元的美国史上最大财政赤字后，承诺在新任期内大幅 削减赤字。美国财政部长贝森特提出"3-3-3"计划：到2028年将财政赤字降至3%，实现3%的GDP增长和 每日300万桶石油产量。但现实情况显示这一目标恐难实现。最新数据显示，继上财年1.83万亿美元赤 字后，2025 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Trump's tariff policies have not resolved the issues of trade and fiscal deficits, leading to increased market concerns about the dollar system and economic volatility [1][3][4] - The article emphasizes that China is one of the three major centers in the global supply chain, with a leading position in manufacturing value added and a balanced export structure across various product categories [5][6][7] - Since the trade friction with the US began in 2018, China's exports to the US have significantly decreased, but overall exports have remained robust due to adjustments in export strategies towards regions like ASEAN, Russia, and India [8] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for China to form new trade orders with economies such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and the Middle East, focusing on enhancing cooperation and exploring new growth points in external circulation [9]

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 5 月 8 日 如何看待美国财政预算上两院分歧？ ——海外宏观利率双周报 ➢ 如何看待美国财政预算上两院分歧？ ➢ 双周海外宏观点评 ➢ 利率： 美国利率如期上行，"硬指标"不提供降息支撑 诚信专业 发现价值 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 Table_First e p 团队成员 相关报告 1.《【华福固收】25 年一季报投资线索梳 理》(2025-05-03) 2.《【华福固收】5 月信用债投资策略思 考》(2025-05-05) 观 利 率 双 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 _ e l y T t r o p e R b a T | t s r i F _ e l b a T 固 收 研 究 海 外 宏 Table_First|Table_Author Table_First|Table_Contacter lhr30501@hfzq Table_First|Table_RelateReport 华福证券 ➢ 美国 2025 财年（2024 年 10 月 1 日至 2025 年 9 月 30 日）财政预 算仍未 ...