欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：除非出现重大外部冲击，包括中东地区可能出现的军事动态，否则在未来六个 月内，如果货币政策发生调整，可能更倾向于宽松方向调整。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward trend, with an overall oscillatory outlook due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate with strong downward support [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward trend. The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. At the Lujiazui Forum, the central bank announced 8 major policies, including issuing offshore bonds, which will increase the demand for treasury bonds in the future and benefit treasury bond prices in the long - term. The latest macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, and the market's expectation of future monetary policy easing is rising. So, treasury bond futures have strong downward support and low downward risk, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2%, the lowest level in two and a half years, in an attempt to stimulate economic growth amid weak economic indicators and high unemployment rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The Swedish economy is experiencing weak growth, with high unemployment rates persisting [2][3]. - Inflation expectations have declined, and the central bank anticipates that inflation will remain below recent forecasts due to weakened demand [2][3]. - The central bank has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 1.9% to 1.2%, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 2.4% [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank's decision to lower the interest rate indicates a shift in policy, moving from a previously more hawkish stance to a more dovish one [3][4]. - There is a possibility of further rate cuts later this year, with market expectations suggesting a potential additional 15 basis points cut before September and a total of 20 basis points by November [3]. - The central bank's current monetary policy aims to stabilize inflation at target levels and enhance economic activity [1][2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The Swedish Krona has appreciated over 4% against the Euro and significantly by 16% against the US Dollar, benefiting from the weaker dollar and expectations of economic benefits from increased fiscal spending in Europe [4]. - The market anticipates that the Swedish economy will benefit from fiscal spending increases in neighboring countries, providing additional support for the Krona [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The latest credit data for May shows that the financing demand of the real sector remains weak, and the policy side needs to play a role in supporting demand in the future. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased, providing a solid bottom - support for Treasury bond futures with low downside risk. Considering the recent issuance of outright reverse repurchases by the central bank to inject liquidity into the market, the expectation of a decline in market interest rates has risen. The Lujiazui Forum on the 18th will issue financial policy guidelines, and the expectation of policy benefits has pushed up the price of Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, with strong bottom - support [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - On June 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 197.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 197.3 billion yuan and an operating rate of 1.40%. Data shows that there were 380.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and MLF maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 183.3 billion yuan from the open market. On June 16, the People's Bank of China announced the issuance of central bank bills, to be tendered and issued in Hong Kong on June 18, 2025, the fourth - phase central bank bills with a term of 6 months, a fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond, with principal and interest repaid at maturity, and an issuance volume of 3 billion yuan. On June 16, the People's Bank of China conducted 400 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 6 months (182 days) [4] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and central bank open - market operations [5][7][10][16]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On June 11th, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism achieved progress, which is beneficial for China-US economic and trade relations and the global economy. Domestically, the 5 - month economic data was weak, supporting the bond market, while the new round of China-US tariff negotiations reached an agreement framework, potentially raising market risk appetite. Overseas, the US labor market is resilient, and the market expects the Fed's first rate cut in September. Recently, the central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation, releasing a loose signal. It is expected that the bond futures main contract will show a strong - side oscillation trend this week, and investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Market Data - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: On June 12th, T, TF, and TS main contract closing prices decreased by 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively, while the TL main contract rose 0.07%. T, TF, and TS trading volumes increased by 2312, 7861, and 4870 respectively, and the TL trading volume decreased by 1459 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads showed upward trends, while others declined. For example, the TL2509 - 2506 spread increased by 0.07, and the T2509 - 2506 spread decreased by 0.07 [2] - **Futures Positions**: The T main contract's open interest decreased by 1321, the TF main contract remained unchanged, the TS main contract decreased by 1, and the TL main contract decreased by 181. The net short positions of T and TL decreased, while the net short position of TF decreased and that of TS decreased [2] 2. Bond Market Data - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased, such as 220010.IB decreasing by 0.0028 and 2500802.IB decreasing by 0.0421 [2] - **Active Bonds**: Yields of 1 - 10 - year active bonds decreased, with the 1 - year yield dropping 0.5bp, the 3 - year yield dropping 1.25bp, etc. [2] 3. Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 5.45bp, the Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.60bp, etc. Some rates decreased, like the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreasing by 1.00bp [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2] 4. Open Market Operations - On June 12th, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operation had an issuance scale of 1193 billion yuan, a maturity scale of 1265 billion yuan, and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 72 billion yuan [2] 5. Industry News - On June 11th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism had in - depth communication, and a framework was reached for implementing the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call on June 5th and the Geneva talks [2] - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on promoting the Shenzhen comprehensive reform pilot, including measures to improve the financial service system for the real economy [2] 6. Key Data to Watch - On June 12th at 20:30, focus on the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7th, May PPI, and core PPI. On June 13th at 22:00, focus on the US 1 - year inflation rate expectation and the Michigan consumer confidence index [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing short - term and long - term investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [5][8][11]. - It suggests that while the current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, different asset classes have different investment opportunities. For example, it is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and precious metals, and provides specific trading strategies for each futures product [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income (Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. Although China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, considering the Sino - US trade situation, it is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. 3.2 Equity Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose by 0.89%, 0.79%, 0.75%, and 0.63% respectively [8][9]. - **Analysis**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate earnings. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 777.54, up 0.32%, and the night - session closed at 780.36; the main silver contract closed at 8,902, up 0.17%, and the night - session closed at 8830 [11]. - **Analysis**: The World Bank has lowered the global GDP growth forecast for 2025. Given the complex global trade and financial environment and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.4 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. As the market enters the off - season, prices are at a new low for the year and may continue to decline. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. From a valuation perspective, the downside is limited. Technically, they may enter a weak - shock phase. Investors can consider short - selling on rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand balance has weakened marginally, but from a valuation perspective, it is still at a relatively high level. Technically, it has found support at previous lows. Investors can consider buying at low levels, taking profits on rebounds, and setting stop - losses if it breaks previous lows [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory and weak demand. Technically, they may stop falling in the short - term but remain weak in the medium - term. Investors can consider short - selling on rebounds and manage their positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract fell 1.22% to 5486 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 0.35% to 5184 yuan/ton. Supply is high while demand is weak, and high inventory is putting pressure on the market. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, and long - position investors should be cautious. If spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [19][20]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The Sino - US negotiations in London are positive for market sentiment. The US has set a deadline for the trade agreement, and tariff frictions are in the second half. The number of US oil and gas rigs has decreased, and shale oil production has increased while on - shore conventional oil production has decreased. It is recommended to take a long - position on the main crude - oil contract [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and broke through the moving - average group. The increase in ARA fuel - oil inventory is positive for the market. As tariff frictions enter the agreement - signing stage, global trade demand is recovering, and the rebound in crude - oil prices will drive up fuel - oil prices. It is recommended to take a long - position on the main fuel - oil contract [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic - rubber contract fell 0.04%. Supply pressure has eased slightly, demand improvement is limited, and cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize. Investors can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main natural - rubber contract rose 0.83%. The market is worried about future demand, and domestic inventory has increased against the seasonal trend. Supply has been affected by rain, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities after the market stabilizes [28][30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.56%. The supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The market is expected to remain in a low - level shock pattern with occasional rebounds. It is currently in a bottom - shock phase [31][33]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 1.24%. Industrial demand has decreased, and agricultural demand is tepid. After the price decline, export and agricultural demand may support the market. Investors can consider taking long positions at low prices and continue to monitor policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [35][36]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell 0.37%. The supply - demand structure is tight in the short - term, and the cost is supported by crude - oil prices. However, after the PXN spread has recovered to a relatively high level, there is a downward pressure. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to crude - oil price changes and macro - policy adjustments [37]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell 0.43%. The supply - demand structure has weakened, but inventory reduction has made it relatively resistant to decline. The cost is supported. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, and investors can consider trading within a low - price range and pay attention to opportunities to shrink the processing fee [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene - glycol contract rose 0.4%. Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. In the short - term, there is no upward drive, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2507 main contract rose 0.16%. Downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive. As the processing fee is compressed, production may be further reduced. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low prices [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2507 main contract fell 0.17%. The raw - material price has adjusted downward, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost trend and oscillate. Investors should pay attention to cost - price changes [43]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Production is stable, and supply remains high, while downstream demand is tepid. In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly stable with narrow price fluctuations. In the medium - to long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to improve, and long - position investors should be cautious [44][45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive. The market is affected by sentiment, and prices are mostly stable. In the short - term, there may be a bullish sentiment, but its sustainability is limited. Short - position investors at low levels should control their positions [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. Some plants are under maintenance, and production capacity utilization is about 83.1%. In the long - term, new production capacity is expected to be released, and the overall supply is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position investors should control their positions [47][49]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract closed at 5346 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high inventory and no obvious improvement in downstream pulp consumption. The increase in Brazilian shipments to China in May is a negative factor. The market is waiting for a signal to break the deadlock. In June, it is the traditional off - season, and the market is expected to improve in August [50][51]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium - carbonate contract rose 1.68% to 61680 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The decline in ore prices has broken the cost support, and supply is expected to increase. Demand is weakening, and inventory remains high. Prices are difficult to reverse until large - scale ore - production capacity is cleared [52]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract rose 0.93% to 3047 yuan/ton, and the soybean - oil main contract fell 0.93% to 7694 yuan/ton. US Midwest crop weather is good, and US soybean futures fell overnight. Brazilian soybean production is at a record high, and domestic soybean supply is abundant. It is expected that the upward movement of the soybean - meal main contract will be under pressure, and investors should wait and see. For soybean oil, the cost support at the bottom is strengthening, and investors can consider low - value call options [59][60]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days. In May, production and inventory increased, and exports also increased. In China, palm - oil imports have decreased year - on - year, and inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past seven years. It is recommended to consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [61][62][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose due to dry weather and improved trade prospects. In China, rapeseed - oil imports have increased year - on - year, and rapeseed - meal imports have increased in April. Rapeseed inventory is at a low level, while rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventory are at high levels. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after the rapeseed - meal price correction [64][65]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton futures oscillated. Weather is favorable for cotton growth, and Sino - US negotiations are expected to be positive. The US cotton - growing rate is 76%, and the优良率 is 49%. Global cotton production has decreased, and consumption has increased. Currently, the industry is in the off - season, and new orders are limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies [66][67][68]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar futures fell. The 2024/25 sugar - production season has ended, with an increase in production and sales. India's sugar production is expected to be high, and Brazil's production is expected to pick up. Currently, domestic inventory is low, and imports are expected to increase. It is recommended to take long positions in batches [70][71][72]. - **Apple**: Domestic apple futures oscillated. There are reports of production cuts in some regions, and the specific production data will be clear after bagging. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to future production - survey data [72]. - **Hog**: The national average hog price rose slightly. In the north, prices rebounded, and in the south, they were stable or slightly increased. In the short - term, consumption is improving, but in the medium - term, demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long - position spreads for peak - season contracts [73][74][75]. - **Egg**: The average egg price in the main producing and selling areas fell. The cost per catty of eggs has decreased, and the breeding profit is negative. The number of laying hens in May increased year - on - year and is expected to continue to increase in June. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts [76][77]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The main corn contract rose 0.08% to 2374 yuan/ton, and the main corn - starch contract rose 0.26% to 2709 yuan/ton. Corn - growing weather is good, and US corn futures fell overnight. North - port and south - port corn inventories are decreasing, and the supply pressure is short - term. Corn demand is growing slightly. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [78][79][80]. - **Log**: The main 2507 contract closed at 765.0 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The number of New Zealand log shipments to China in the 24th week is stable, and inventory is decreasing. The market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price is weak. The improvement in housing transactions may stimulate market sentiment in the short - term. As the 07 contract approaches the delivery month, beware of bullish - sentiment disturbances [81][82].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货维持震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均继续窄幅震荡整理。消息面上，中美经贸磋商机制首 次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。目前磋商结果仍具有较强不确定性，市场情绪 以等待观望居多。由于关税前景不确定性扰动加深，国内宏观经济指标边际 走弱，货币政策适度宽松的主基调不变，加上当前市场利率隐含的降息预期 基本归零，对未来宽松政策的预期将升温，国债期货底部支撑较强。不过短 期内，货币工具的效应或不及财政工具，因此短期通过连续降息来提振需求 的可能性不高。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主，关注 6 月 18 日 陆家嘴论坛的金融政策指引。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。 ...

在全球地缘政治局势方面，紧张局势仍在持续发酵。乌克兰方面宣称，俄罗斯发动了大规模空袭，这一事件对市场风险情绪构成了潜在扰动。在地缘政治冲 突不断升级的背景下，黄金作为传统的避险资产，其吸引力本应显著增强。然而，当前市场风险偏好因贸易谈判的乐观预期而有所改善，使得黄金的避险需 求在短期内未得到充分释放。但一旦地缘政治冲突进一步恶化，突破当前市场预期的范围，黄金价格可能会迅速获得强劲的上涨动力。 一位长期关注大宗商品领域的分析师指出："从近期黄金价格走势来看，其未能有效向上突破200小时均线，这一现象深刻反映出多头动能的不足。基于此， 短期内黄金价格倾向于进行整理，甚至存在进一步调整的可能性。"当前，黄金市场的走势受到多种复杂因素的综合影响，其中美联储未来的政策路径充满 不确定性，这在一定程度上限制了黄金价格的下跌空间。尽管此前公布的强劲就业数据在短期内对黄金价格构成利空，但CMEFedWatch工具所呈现的数据 显示，市场对于美联储在9月实施降息的概率预期仍然接近60%。这种对未来货币政策宽松的预期，使得投资者在一定程度上对黄金价格的下行持有谨慎态 度，为黄金价格提供了潜在支撑。 此外，美国长期存在的财政赤字问 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6]. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose and then fell. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, and it is in the off - season. The price is at a low level, and there may be short - term weak oscillations. Short positions on rebounds are recommended [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. Long positions at low levels are recommended [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term demand may peak, and the supply is excessive. Long positions need caution, and low - value call options can be considered [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. With upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expected weakening of OPEC's pressure on oil prices, the oil price is expected to strengthen, and long positions are considered [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil opened high and closed low. Rising crude oil prices may drive up fuel oil prices, and long positions are considered [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Supply pressure persists, and demand improvement is limited. Wait for stabilization and then participate in rebounds [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. There are concerns about demand and high inventory. Wait for the market to stabilize and then consider long positions [31][32][33]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly follows the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - oscillating state [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. Short - term cost decline and delayed agricultural demand lead to adjustments, but exports and future agricultural demand may drive the price up. Long positions at low levels can be considered [37][38][39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. Short - term crude oil prices oscillate, and the supply - demand structure is tight. It should be treated with an oscillating mindset, and interval operations are recommended [40]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply - demand structure weakens, but inventory reduction and cost support exist. Interval operations at low levels are recommended [41][42]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply - demand situation weakens, but inventory reduction increases short - term games. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Downstream demand weakens, but cost support exists. Follow the cost - end oscillations and consider long positions at low levels [44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Raw material prices decline, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve. Follow the cost - end oscillations and participate cautiously [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable. Avoid excessive long positions [46]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term rebound may not last. Control short - position risks [47][48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The overall supply - demand is loose, with regional differences. Long - position holders should control risks [49][50]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate in the off - season, and a turnaround may occur in August [51]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [52][53]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US trade negotiations are beneficial, and the basis for price increase exists. Long positions are considered [54][55]. Tin - Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus exists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [56][57]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support weakens, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. For soybean oil, consider low - value call options [59][60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The inventory is increasing, and opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil can be considered [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Consider long positions in rapeseed meal after corrections [64][65][66]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. The industry is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and USDA reports. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [67][68][69]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rose. Overseas production is expected to increase, while domestic inventory is low. Consider long positions in batches [70][72][73]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long positions after corrections [74][75]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, live - pig futures fell. Group - farm sales are increasing, and consider long - spread opportunities in peak - season contracts [76][77]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and short positions at high levels are considered [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [80][81][82]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][84][85].

汇丰：印度央行周五料降息25个基点，8月将再降一次 金十数据6月4日讯，汇丰全球研究的经济学家表示，印度央行可能会在周五召开的会议上将利率下调25 个基点，8月份还会再下调一次，届时利率将降至5.5%。在此前两次降息和大量注入流动性之后，印度 央行有进一步放松政策的空间，但接下来的宽松将以利率工具为主，而非继续注入流动性。2026财年通 胀可能会低于目标水平，这将有助于提升实际居民收入和财政收入。然而，印度央行可能在10月暂停降 息，以评估货币政策对存贷款利率的传导效果。经济学家预测，今年12月可能会迎来最后一次降息，但 届时是否实施还将取决于当时的经济增长状况。 ...