在很多人还在为投资方向迷茫的时候，黄女士看似无心插柳的举动，却收获了意想不到的成果。黄金， 作为一种传统的避险资产，一直以来都备受投资者关注。黄女士的经历，无疑给众多投资者提供了一个 别样的思路。当然，投资市场风云变幻，黄金价格也并非一成不变。黄女士这次成功，除了眼光，或许 还有那么一点点幸运的加持。 1 月 22 日，一则来自山东潍坊的消息，像一颗投入平静湖面的石子，在投资圈激起了层层涟漪。记者 从黄女士那里了解到一个令人惊叹的 "财富故事"。 黄女士当初纯粹是出于对孩子未来的关爱，想着给两个孩子提前准备结婚礼物，便开启了囤金之路。这 一坚持，就是连续好几年。她陆陆续续购入了大量黄金物品，其中首饰加起来约有 500 克，金条更是达 到了 2 公斤多一点。而当时黄金价格最低的时候仅 360 元 / 克。 时光流转，如今黄金市场行情变化，以当前的金价来估算，黄女士当初购入的这些黄金，预估价值竟高 达 300 万左右。也就是说，这几年间，她的黄金投资收益超 200 万。这可真是一笔相当可观的财富增 值！面对如此大幅的增值，黄女士表示，这是为孩子结婚准备的，不会因为涨价就出手。 不过，这也提醒着我们，合理的资产配置 ...

如果你不愿接受越来越低的利息，就不得不从"吃利息"转 向"做配置"，学习看待市场波动、理解产品条款，明确自己愿 意为多高的收益，承担多少风险与不确定性。这才是"高息定 存退潮"带来的真实压力测试。 作者： 欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 这场关于财富再定价的压力测试，来得有点猝不及防。很多宏观政策，最后都会落到具体的小事 上，比如你的存款到期转存，利息变少了。 当外界仍在讨论财政端的贴息与货币端的宽松时，银行体系内部正悄然发生一场更贴近普通人感受 的变化：一批曾在高利率时期锁定的定期存款陆续到期，到期转存时却只能接受更低的利率。 因此，银行更倾向于逐步减少高息长期存款产品，转向成本更低、期限更灵活的负债来源；同时推 出一些收益看似更高、但附带条件的结构性产品。 过去几年，不少人将资金存入利率约3%的大额存单或高息定存，以求安稳省心。如今，这批存款 逐渐到期，摆在面前的现实是：同样的本金，同样期限再存一次，利息可能只有1.5%左右，甚至 更低。下一步怎么办？是继续接受更低利息，还是去找别的出路？ 我们先简单算一笔账。假设有一大批到期存款，规模是50万亿元（市场测算不一）。利率从过去 大约3%变成现在大约1.5%，差了 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the changing rankings of major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities, highlighting Japan, the UK, and China as the top three holders, with China experiencing a slight decrease in holdings from approximately $688.7 billion to $682.6 billion [1][3] - The narrative around China's drop in ranking is oversimplified; the U.S. Treasury market is influenced by various factors such as interest rates, inflation, and supply-demand dynamics, rather than just the actions of a single country [3][6] - The structure of foreign investment in China's bond market shows that foreign institutions primarily hold government bonds, with a notable shift towards more stable assets as opposed to more sensitive instruments like interbank certificates [6][9] Group 2 - The influx of funds into U.S. assets is significant, particularly from European investors, which has contributed to record high levels of foreign holdings in U.S. Treasuries despite some reductions from other investors [11][12] - The changing buyer structure of U.S. Treasuries indicates a rising proportion of private funds, which tend to react more quickly to market fluctuations, potentially increasing volatility [12][13] - Central banks and large institutions are diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings, indicating a trend towards risk management and a more balanced approach to asset allocation [15][17]

达沃斯论坛秒变"霸道总裁发布会"，特朗普一句"谁抛美债就报复谁"，把美式霸权的双标玩到了新高度。 可这边狠话刚放完，中美债持仓数据就给了他一记闷棍，中方仅剩6830亿美元美债，较峰值减持超6000亿。 这场美国主导的"借钱游戏"，中方早已悄悄换了玩法。 特朗普在达沃斯的放话，与其说是威慑，不如说是"色厉内荏的护食"。 他嘴硬称"手里有全部的牌"，可字里行间全是怕被拆台的焦虑，而点燃这根引线的，竟是丹麦一家养老基金的"小动作"。 据新华社1月21日报道，丹麦"学界养老基金"宣布月底前抛售1亿美元美债，理由直白到扎心，美国财政状况太糟，实在没信心持有。 这1亿美元在38万亿美元的美债市场里，连塞牙缝都不够，美国财长贝森特嘴硬说"无关紧要"，可特朗普转头就放狠话报复，这份"心虚"藏都藏不住。 更让美国坐不住的是，欧洲的抛售潮已露苗头。 瑞典最大养老基金Alecta紧随其后，单日抛售77至88亿美元美债，直言美国政策风险"不可预测"。 要知道欧洲合计持有近10万亿美元美股美债，是美国金融市场的"大金主"，这波减持虽规模不大，却像多米诺骨牌的第一块，戳破了美债"安全资产"的神 话。 中国人民银行数据显示，截至2025年 ...

国际市场的回调与国内品牌金价的"抗跌"形成微妙对比，这或许暗示，国内零售端情绪仍对高位价格有所支撑，国际风向的转变，是否会最终传导至国内终 端，是后续观察的关键。 三、黄金回收市场价差清晰 贵金属回收价格清晰反映出不同品类与纯度的价值分层，足金回收价约为1067元/克，与零售价差超过400元，蕴含了高昂的工艺与品牌溢价，K金回收价随 成色递减，14K金为614元/克。 白银方面，足银回收价仅21.11元/克，零售价可达数倍，铂金、钯金各类纯度回收价亦呈现阶梯分布，水贝市场的回收价更具参考意义，金饰回收为1058元/ 克，回收市场是贵金属真实流动性的体现，与零售市场的巨大价差，恰恰是投资者购入时需首要考量的成本隐形成本。 2026年初，贵金属市场在创新高后迎来剧烈震荡，黄金品牌价差显著，国际金价高位回调，白银在冲高后闪崩。 一、品牌金价个别出现调整 2026年1月23日，国内品牌黄金价格呈现明显梯队分布，第一梯队以每克1498元保持高位，其中中国黄金单日下跌8元，多数头部品牌如周大福、金至尊等价 格持平。中间梯队中，老庙黄金逆势上涨3元至1496元，老凤祥、周生生则小幅下跌3元。六福珠宝等品牌价格保持稳定。 周 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current economic recovery momentum is moderate, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, providing support for the bond market. However, the peak of government bond issuance in the first quarter may bring pressure, although the market has partially digested this expectation [1][2] - The equity market may experience short-term adjustments, but upcoming policy meetings are expected to boost market sentiment and redirect funds, limiting the downside for the bond market, which is anticipated to fluctuate between 1.8% and 1.9% [1][2] - In the medium term, fiscal efforts are expected to drive economic recovery, with improvements in industrial added value and fixed asset investment, which may exert pressure on the bond market due to rising core CPI. However, deleveraging and high financing costs will limit the extent of adjustments [1][2] - Long-term, China's economic transformation and aging population are expected to suppress inflation, providing support for the bond market, making it important to seize trading opportunities [1][2] Key Points on Bond Market - In a low-interest-rate environment, market volatility may increase, with credit bonds and high-quality interest rate bonds becoming hotspots. Progress in resolving debt risks has significantly reduced credit risks, suggesting a focus on short-duration bonds with some allocation to medium-duration bonds [1][4] - The credit bond market is expected to remain strong in 2026, but caution is advised due to structural differentiation. Significant progress in resolving debt risks has led to a substantial decrease in credit risks, particularly reflected in credit spreads [4][5] - The current market requires a flexible and diverse asset allocation strategy, adapting to specific market conditions to achieve sustained profitability [5] Real Estate Sector Insights - The valuation of credit bonds in the real estate sector is highly volatile. For example, Vanke experienced sell-offs post-extension, leading to valuation fluctuations. A nuanced approach is recommended, avoiding blanket strategies and focusing on the quality of bonds and their cash flow stability [9][10] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment phase, with some private enterprises facing cash flow challenges. However, if supportive policies are implemented, the financing environment for quality real estate companies, especially state-owned enterprises, will improve [10] Infrastructure Investment - Since 2025, policy efforts have significantly boosted stable growth in infrastructure investment, providing stable orders for related companies and addressing accounts receivable issues through special bonds [11] Credit Risk Management - Credit risk and liquidity risk are closely related. Poor liquidity management by issuers can lead to credit issues. For instance, even well-rated companies can face liquidity crises if banks stop lending [6][12] - The credit risk of small and medium-sized financial institutions varies significantly, necessitating careful assessment of their asset quality and capital adequacy [12] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The 30-year government bond market is currently steepening due to a combination of short-term liquidity easing and long-term economic recovery expectations. Future trends may see upward pressure on long-term rates due to fiscal efforts and inflation expectations [13][14] - Both the stock and bond markets are expected to experience relative volatility in 2026, with neither offering absolute value. A diversified asset allocation approach is recommended to navigate this environment [15][18] - Investors should remain vigilant regarding macroeconomic data and policy changes, adjusting their investment strategies accordingly to balance risks and opportunities [24][29] Conclusion - The bond market is expected to remain resilient despite challenges, with a focus on quality assets and flexible strategies being crucial for navigating the evolving economic landscape. Investors should prioritize risk management and adaptability in their asset allocation to achieve stable returns in a fluctuating market environment [1][5][29]

随着金价稳步站上 4900 美元并向 5000 美元历史关口发起最后冲刺，新手投资者的入场逻辑也必须随之 进化。 阿萨交易学院认为，真正的黄金学习不仅仅是盯紧盘面的涨跌，更重要的是理解支撑金价背后的货币信 用与地缘博弈逻辑。 在全球经济进入"规则重塑期"的 2026 年，黄金的地位已经发生了深刻跃迁——它不再仅仅是传统的保 值工具，而是成为了资产配置中不可或缺的"压舱石"。 二、主流投资方式与风险真相 一、驱动金价跨越关口的核心变量 理解当前的黄金市场，首先要看清地缘政治带来的"溢价效应"。2026 年以来，无论是格陵兰岛风波还 是贸易摩擦的升级，都让避险需求从短期波动变成了长期常态。当政策的不确定性成为市场共识，黄金 便自然而然地成为了资本的最后防线。 与此同时，美元走势与货币信用的重估正在改写传统框架。尽管美国 4.4% 的 GDP 数据为美元提供了 表面支撑，但金价的同步飙升反映出市场正在对冲美元的潜在信用风险。 在这种环境下，持续的通胀粘性让黄金的抗通胀属性愈发凸显。对于新手而言，必须意识到实际利率对 金价的压制正在减弱，这种宏观范式的转移是金价冲击 5000 美元的底层动力。 在技术形态上，我们需要 ...

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2026 年 01 月 23 日 FOF 新发市场回温，规模相对集中于低风险 FOF FOF 基金 2025 年四季报点评 ❑ FOF 基金持仓分析： 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com 徐肖雅 研究助理 xuxiaoya@cmschina.com 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 市场新闻：2025 年四季度，个人养老金 FOF 基金数量回升至 213 只，整体发 展平稳。截至 2025/12/31，2023 年以来完整运行的 132 只 Y 份额个人养老金基 金平均收益为 12.74%，收益区间为[-5.95%,36.14%]，130 只基金获得了正收益。 ❑ 市场概况：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全市场公募 FOF 基金共有 549 只，合 计管理规模 2441.88 亿元，其中低风险 FOF 规模占比约 66%。整体较 2025 年三季度末数量增加了 31 只，管理规模持续回升，相比三季度末增加 507.00 亿元，环比上升 26.20%，相较 2024 年末规模上升超过 80%。 ❑ 新发产品：2025 年四季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical juncture in early 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and a record daily trading volume exceeding 3.9 trillion yuan, indicating a heated market sentiment [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Regulatory measures are being implemented to cool down the market, including increasing financing ratios and reducing large-cap ETF holdings, which raises concerns among investors about potential market corrections similar to those seen in 2015 and 2021 [5]. - Investors face a dilemma between holding onto their investments or exiting the market, with the fear of missing out on potential long-term gains versus the risk of significant downturns [6]. Group 2: Holding vs. Exiting - Holding onto investments (referred to as "hard support") offers the potential for long-term gains if the market enters a slow bull or long bull phase, but it also comes with psychological stress and the risk of panic selling during downturns [8]. - Exiting the market ("running away") provides certainty and safety, allowing investors to preserve gains and have liquidity to buy during market corrections, but it carries the risk of missing out on future opportunities [10]. Group 3: Balanced Approach - A balanced strategy of reducing exposure without completely exiting the market is suggested, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals [12][13]. - Investors are encouraged to establish a regular rebalancing mechanism to manage risk and avoid emotional decision-making, while also optimizing their asset allocation to include high-dividend and undervalued assets for better defensive positioning [15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized by high trading volumes and regulatory interventions, indicating accumulated risks. A rational approach focusing on gradual adjustments and maintaining a comfortable investment strategy is recommended [19].

回顾刚刚过去的2025年，全球市场在AI浪潮与政策博弈中展现出超预期的韧性，主要大类资产多点开 花，全球主要股指均录得正收益，中国资产表现尤为亮眼，贵金属市场也迎来火爆走势。 随着2026年拉开序幕，全球市场进入新一轮资产配置博弈——美联储降息后半程与日本央行加息形成政 策错位，通胀反弹风险犹存，美股高估值与AI泡沫分化加剧……面对主要经济体增长动能切换、货币 政策取向变化以及地缘格局重塑，2026年，全球资产大类资产配置将走向何方？ 近日，多名机构人士受访指出，2026年风险资产有望继续上涨，但市场分化将更加显著，投资者需要通 过更广泛的资产配置来应对不确定性。 英国跨境投资与商业顾问机构新宏睿投资管理公司(New Horizon Global Advisory，简称新宏睿)创始 人、董事总经理夏宇宸受访时表示，与过往周期不同，当前全球体系中的主要加杠杆主体已由居⺠部门 转向政府部门，这一变化正在深刻影响通胀运行机制、债券市场定价逻辑以及传统资产配置中的分散化 假设。在此背景下，投资组合管理的核⼼不再是押注单一宏观路径，而在于适应一个更高分化度、更弱 传统对冲属性的市场环境，以及投资机构的主动配置与风险管理 ...