财通证券 CAITONG SECURITIES 作造 S0160521120002 SAC : 分析师:张洲弛 S0160524070004 2025年6月25日 前： T E 证券研究报告 品及不完全年生平台 结论 | 单元格内推荐程度： 从左到右 | | | 增配 | 标配C | 代理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短期 | | H股科技、A股、H股红利 | 铜、美债、美股、黄金、中债 | 美元 | | | 中期 | | H股科技、AH股 | 黄金、美债、铜、中债、美股 | 美元 | | | | 中长期-周期位置 | 短期-近期变化 | 未来研判 | 其他潜在利好&风险 | | 全球景气 | | 中: 景气逐步修复 | 中:超跌后有所缓和 | 中:震荡向上 | 美国:景气弱于预期,特朗普新政策冲击/美 | | | | 美:高位+逐步回落 | 美: 景气低于预期 | 美：景气或震荡走弱 | 国内政波澜 | | 货币政策 | | 中国:长期降息周期中 美+欧:降息周期初期 | 美国偏观望，较市场预期更鹰 | 美国:美联储等待政策和降息不确定性落地,市 ...

招商银行研究院继续分章节为您推送《逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望》 本篇为文章第四、五部分， 中国宏观：迎风搏浪，攻坚克难；中国策略：利率低波震荡，权益底线抬升。 全文推送完毕。 ■ 财政政策或由加速转向加力。 今年财政总量空间明显扩张，上半年财政积极落实预算安排， 前置发力，融资进度高，支出增长快。下半年随着关税冲击逐步显现，财政政策或相机加力，推 出5,000-10,000亿增量工具，并优化一揽子化债方案。中央财政将更多"加杠杆"，畅通政策传 导，推动地方财政重回扩张。 ■ 货币政策将兼顾"四重平衡"，维持"适度宽松"。 一方面，在经济内外部挑战上升的背景下， 实际利率居于高位，意味着未来一段时间"宽松"仍是我国货币政策的主基调。另一方面，名义利 率 处 于 低 位 ， 表 明 货 币 宽 松 需 要 " 适 度 " ， 珍 惜 宝 贵 的 利 率 政 策 空 间 。 下 半 年 7 天 逆 回 购 利 率 与 LPR或进一步调降10bp，降准1次，幅度50bp。货币政策结构性工具加码的确定性高于总量工 具，量的扩容重于价的调降。 ■ 资本市场底线抬升，向上空间有待打开。 看境内市场，资 ...

·西南期货：中长期上涨逻辑仍强考虑做多黄金期货 ·银河期货：短期内预计贵金属将延续高位震荡走势 ·广州期货：避险情绪降温美联储降息没有紧迫性贵金属价格或小幅承压 ·Zaner Metals：对停火能否持续的不确定性限制金价跌幅 ·FXStreet：美元走软金价整体仍保持积极偏向 ·银河期货表示，由于伊以双方在美国的介入下暂时实现停火，避险情绪回落。美国货币政策路径方 面，尽管昨日鲍威尔等人的发言稍显鹰派、总体维持观望态度，但市场对于下半年的降息预期有所提 升、并小幅抢跑，美元和美债收益率连续走低。往后看，尽管地缘因素的缓和为黄金带来溢价出清的压 力，但市场后续的焦点可能重新回美国宏观基本面和美联储的货币政策上来，当前关税冲击引起的风险 并未消除，美联储也仍处于降息通道之中，这些因素为贵金属下方提供了良好的支撑。因此短期内预计 贵金属将延续在高位震荡的走势。 ·广州期货表示，以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，地缘风险缓和。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会证词中表示， 美联储目前处于有利位置，能够耐心等待，待对经济走向有更清晰的判断后再考虑调整货币政策立场； 但他不排除关税对通胀的影响可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能。世界大型 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing tensions between the US and China, highlighting trade conflicts, technological competition, and geopolitical confrontations, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea [1][3][7] - The US initiated a trade war in 2018, imposing tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing issues like intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices [3][5] - China retaliated with equivalent tariffs, leading to an escalation of trade disputes, although a temporary relief was achieved with the signing of the Phase One trade agreement in January 2020 [5][7] Group 2 - The article emphasizes China's advancements in technology, particularly in 5G and artificial intelligence, where it has established a leading position, making it difficult for the US to contain its growth [7][11] - China's economic strength is highlighted, with a GDP of $17.5 trillion in 2023, accounting for 18.5% of the global economy, and a growth rate that could lead to surpassing the US by 2030 [9][10] - The manufacturing sector is dominated by China, which accounts for 30% of global manufacturing output, significantly outpacing the US [10][12] Group 3 - In the military domain, China is rapidly advancing, with plans to have three aircraft carriers and advanced missile technology by 2025, increasing its presence in the Asia-Pacific region [12][18] - The article notes China's critical role in global supply chains, controlling 92% of rare earth refining capabilities, which poses challenges for the US in achieving self-sufficiency [12][18] - The financial landscape is shifting, with the international use of the renminbi expanding, indicating a decline in the dominance of the US dollar [13][16] Group 4 - The article concludes that the future of US-China relations will remain complex, with China continuing to rise and the US potentially facing relative decline, although there are areas for cooperation [18][19]

Market Activity - The A-share market remains active with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 19 consecutive trading days as of June 24, indicating sustained investor enthusiasm [1] - The margin trading balance in the A-share market has been above 1.8 trillion yuan for 15 consecutive trading days in June, reaching 18,220.06 billion yuan, which accounts for 2.25% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - In June, there were 12 trading days where the margin buying amount exceeded 100 billion yuan [1] Margin Trading Trends - A brokerage firm in East China reported a month-on-month increase in margin trading balances since the beginning of the year, with a notable rise in high-value clients [3] - Margin trading balances are used to gauge market activity and investor sentiment, with a peak of 19,460.86 billion yuan in March, the highest since 2015 [4] - Following a decline in April, margin trading has stabilized between 1.7 trillion and 1.8 trillion yuan since May [4] Sector Preferences - The top five sectors favored by margin trading funds from June 16 to June 23 include electronics, non-bank financials, computers, biomedicine, and power equipment, with respective market value shares of 3.17%, 2.75%, 4.29%, 2.71%, and 2.91% [4] - Recent stocks with significant increases in margin balances include Haike Xinyuan, Chizheng Co., Huawai Design, Yihua New Materials, and Yishi Precision [4][5] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent recovery in leveraged funds indicates increased investor confidence in the market [5] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with improving performance, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, as well as stablecoin concept stocks that have recently gained traction [6] - The outlook for the A-share market in the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of foreign capital inflows and a focus on high-quality companies in finance, consumption, and pharmaceuticals [7] Investment Strategies - Key investment themes for the second half of the year include the recovery of the real estate cycle, overlooked consumer demand, and increased capital expenditure in high-tech sectors [8] - Recommended investment opportunities include financials with high dividends, emerging technology sectors, and cyclical consumer goods that are expected to benefit from improved competition and supply-demand dynamics [8] - The Chinese equity market is anticipated to outperform overseas markets, with strong policy support for growth sectors likely to attract more attention to emerging high-growth areas [8]

2025 年 6 月 25 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | | 铁合金: | | ا ے | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | .. | | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | .. | | | 乙二醇: | .. | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂· ...

日期 日期 美元指数 美债2年期收益率 美债10年期收益率 美元/人民币中间价 VIX 标普500 NYMEX原油 2025/6/24 7.17 2025/6/23 98. 38 3. 84 4. 34 19. 83 6025. 17 67.23 棋率/汇 至/ 版面 2025/6/23 7.17 2025/6/20 98.76 3.90 4. 38 20. 62 5967. 84 74. 04 涨跌幅 -0. 08% 流改幅 -0. 39% -0. 91% -3. 83% -9. 20% -1. 54% 0. 96% 1,000 16,000 3,700 120 110 950 15,000 100 90 2.700 14,000 图表分析 13,000 12,000 DMEX全银比价(收益价) 1、据沙特阿拉伯卫星电视台24日最新消息，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡当地时间24日宣布与伊朗停火。 伊朗国家电视台24日正式发布消息称，伊朗对以色列停火。（参 (来源:用考消息)。以防长:伊朗违反停火协议 将对德黑兰市中心进行"猛烈打击"。 2、美联储理事鲍曼: 如果通胀仍然受抑,可能会支持美联储在7月降息。如果通胀继续 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 25 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-25） | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量贡献较大，整 体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预期。产业端淡季，五大钢 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 材产量增，铁水止跌回升，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。唐山传出钢铁企 | | | | | 业烧结机减产 30%的消息，对原料端需求有下移空间，若铁水破 240 万 | | | | | 吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，基本面仍供需偏弱，空单继续持有。 | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉煤成本 | | | | | 下降，多数企业保持在盈利状态，钢厂仍有打压焦炭意愿，对焦企第四轮 | | | 煤焦 | 低位震荡 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-25 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...

据金融界消息，美国财政部数据显示，外资在4月减持美国国债，是5个月来首次。中国期内减持80亿美元美债，持有规模降 至7570亿美元，是2009年以来最低。外资在3月持有的美债金额达到9.049万亿美元，创下纪录新高，4月底时持有美债的规模 则回落至9.013万亿美元，减幅为361亿美元。美国总统特朗普在4月2日公布对等关税后，国债收益率一度急升，市场当时传 闻有外国政府不满对等关税，大手抛售美债。 特朗普（资料图） 在特朗普政府关税计划带来的通胀风险面前，美联储连续4个月维持上述利率不变的决定，无疑更符合市场预期。决议声明 也中提到，尽管失业率依然较低，劳动力市场状态保持良好，关于经济前景的不确定性也有所下降，但由于一系列经济变量 仍未确定，美联储更倾向于耐心等待。简单来说，无论特朗普如何施压，美联储都只会基于市场走向来调整货币政策；至于 何时降息、降息幅度如何，则要看当时的经济状态。 近日，美国资深学者、前标普全球首席经济学家谢尔德在接受美媒记者采访的时候，发表了一番"高谈阔论"，声称"美国政府 作为'永续实体'，因此债务并不需要还清"。在他看来，债务问题应该被视为一种将购买力转移至未来的机制。并且他还强 ...