背后的逻辑其实很直白。现货黄金在9月中旬一度突破3700美元每盎司，再度创下历史新高。今年以来金价涨幅接近40%，这意 味着品牌在生产、采购和库存端的综合成本确实在上升。（数据来源：Wind） 在这样的背景下，社交平台上的讨论也越来越多。有消费者抱怨一口价工费太高，觉得买来投资不划算；也有人选择在涨价前 捡漏，赶紧把心仪的款式拿下。 那金价为什么会在近期持续飙升呢？小夏觉得有几方面的原因。 一方面，是美联储进入降息通道。9月中旬，美联储宣布下调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点，这是今年以来的首次降息。降息 一方面削弱了美元的吸引力，另一方面提升了黄金的配置价值，毕竟，黄金是不生息的资产，利率越低，它的比较优势更明 显。历史数据显示，美联储进入降息周期后，黄金往往表现更为亮眼。 最近，黄金市场又一次刷屏了。不同于以往按克计价的首饰日常跟随金价浮动，这次让大家直呼涨得离谱的，是一口价黄金产 品。 短短几天，某些品牌的转运珠的价格就涨了200到500元，有些款式甚至要贵上几千元。朋友圈里，品牌柜姐们开始提醒顾客赶 紧下手，而线下门店里，不少消费者则选择趁涨价前火速买单。（环球网 20250915） 那么，什么是一口价 ...

在交易性持仓方面，钟俊轩表示，随着贵金属价格的持续上涨，近期海外管理基金净多以及金银ETF持 仓量均有所增加，驱动金银价格表现强势。COMEX黄金管理基金净持仓在9月23日当周增加1578手， 至16.05万手，COMEX白银管理基金净持仓增加1293手，至3.7万手。工业属性更强的白银价格表现更 为强势，外盘金银比价由9月17日的87.8回落至9月29日的81.3。 长假期间，海外市场将发生多个重要的宏观经济事件。钟俊轩表示，当前美国政府面临"关门"危机，若 国会无法通过短期支出法案，那么美国政府将于周三部分关闭，非农数据的发布将会受到影响。若美国 政府可以避免"关门"危机，那么假期公布的就业数据将对美联储货币政策预期产生显著影响。同时，需 要关注9月ISM制造业及非制造业PMI数据，偏强的制造业PMI数据会令工业属性更强的白银价格表现强 于黄金，金银比价将存在进一步下移空间。 转自：期货日报 临近国庆中秋假期，金银市场看涨热度不减。 周一（9月29日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨1.90%，报3821.40美元／盎司。COMEX黄金期货涨1.80%，报 3859.00美元／盎司。现货白银涨1.75%，报46.88 ...

黄金突破3000美元大关也就是今年一季度的事，5月就冲破3500美元，而后震荡盘整了一阵，近期再次突然大爆发，一度冲破3800美元大关。 光是在今年9月，现货黄金累计涨幅已超6%，仅在2025年，金价就已创下超30次名义价格历史新高。 各界不禁感叹——黄金疯了吗？究竟背后的神秘驱动力是什么？ 一、连续降息预期推升金价 就短期因素来说，黄金的上涨和美联储降息直接相关。 北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点（BP），至4.00%～4.25%之间，这也是自2024年9月以来首次降息，而且美 联储预计年内还有2次降息。 这一超预期的鸽派声明直接推动黄金暴涨，现货黄金最高上涨至突破3700美元/盎司，突破了1980年通胀调整的历史最高峰值。 一般而言，国债和黄金都被视为避险资产，但当降息导致国债收益率下降时，黄金作为替代品的吸引力增强。由于黄金本身不产生利息或股息，当其他提 供收益的资产失去吸引力时，黄金的吸引力便会增强。 除了降息本身，美国就业数据连续两个月"爆雷"，市场开始担忧美国经济。同时，特朗普持续对美联储施加政治压力，这也令市场担心美联储独立性受到 威胁。 尽管美联储的每 ...

9月29日，国际金价再创新高，现货黄金盘中突破3800美元/盎司，一度涨至3819.8美元/盎司。较月初的 3476.5美元/盎司累计上涨约10%，年内涨幅已超45%。而自9月以来，在美联储降息预期的影响下，国 际金价就持续大涨，屡创新高。 伴随着国际金价屡创新高，消费端的金饰品价格也水涨船高。长假临近，珠宝品牌也迎来了传统的销售 旺季。前往门店选购金饰的顾客络绎不绝，各大珠宝品牌也纷纷推出促销活动以吸引消费者。受国际金 价接连上涨影响，国内品牌金饰克价已经超1100元大关。周大福、潮宏基等品牌9月29日千足金饰品的 价格为1108元/克，较本月初已经上涨约80元/克。 "不过现在有促销活动。千足金每克有40元的优惠，一口价饰品除了'故宫系列'，可以打9.2折。"谈及最 近关于"一口价"饰品的调价传闻，周大福门店的工作人员表示，"10月会上调价格，大概在30%左 右。"同样的涨价消息在六福珠宝的门店也得到确认，其柜员表示，"一口价"饰品10月会涨价，但具体 的幅度还不清楚。 "近期金价波动频繁，是黄金饰品涨价的根本因素。加之每年9月、10月是传统婚庆旺季，也是婚庆金饰 购买的高峰期，市场需求的增加也推动了金饰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, before the central bank's policy direction becomes clearer, the bond market is unlikely to see significant movements. However, with the injection of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks, interest rates may gradually approach previous lows, accompanied by some structural market trends. Therefore, pre - arranging for the to - be - allocated varieties of incremental funds is a dominant strategy. Good choices include ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds favored by the "cost - reduction" of insurance in July and sinking credit varieties with a maturity yield in the 2.0% - 2.2% range for betting on the growth of wealth management scale [5]. - In June and the second half of the year, aside from the uncertainty of tariffs, there are few foreseeable negative factors in June. The fundamental data is still mixed, and its indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. Even if long - term interest rates retreat, the amplitude may be relatively controllable. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties such as ultra - long local bonds, long - term agricultural development bonds, and export - import bank bonds can be preferentially selected [41]. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - The change in the central bank's statement on reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the monetary policy draft this week dampened market expectations of easing. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active Treasury bonds increased by 0.5 and 2.3 bps respectively, while the yield of 1 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 bps [2][11]. - In the interest - rate bond market, yields of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and below generally decreased by 3 - 4 bps, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield breaking through the 1.40% resistance line to 1.36%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds remained stable at 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. In the credit - bond market, the market continued the idea of spread mining, and long - term varieties became the focus. Yields of some credit - bond varieties decreased to different extents [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, 4223 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, and 508 billion yuan are scheduled to be issued from June 30 to July 4. As of June 27, 21635 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, an increase of 6542 billion yuan year - on - year, accounting for 49% of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan quota. 1110 billion yuan of Treasury bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 1110 billion yuan, including 710 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds. 1150 billion yuan of policy - financial bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 109 billion yuan [19]. Funds Market Situation - During the cross - quarter period, the upward pressure on funds was relatively controllable. Despite tax - period disturbances, the overnight funds remained stable, while the 7 - day interest rates rose significantly. The R007 and DR007 increased by 24 bp and 13 bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.37% and 1.67% respectively, with changes of +0.3 and +13.9 bps compared with last week. The overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 2.02% and 2.06% respectively, with changes of +37.7 and +19.8 bps compared with last week [23][25]. - In the context of the tightening of the end - of - quarter funds, the overall trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed [28]. China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. The performance of major industries remained strong, with improvements in both supply and demand. The production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51%, and the new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [31]. - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27204.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and the profit growth rate slowed down compared with January - April. Although new - energy industries contributed significantly to profit growth, industrial product prices remained low, and there was still a large space for increasing effective demand [33]. - The US dollar index has been below 100 in the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank's net open - market injection was 12672 billion yuan, the second - highest single - week net injection this year [38]. China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - The economic data in May was mixed. The GDP under the production method remained high, while the terminal demand under the expenditure method was differentiated. The annual 5% real growth target is likely to be achieved. In the future, policies may focus on structural short - board compensation and improving nominal growth [42]. - Monetary policy will continue to be loose to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and the liquidity is likely to remain loose. In June and the second half of the year, high - cost - performance bond varieties can be preferentially selected [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $3800 per ounce and reaching a historical high, is driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 29, spot gold prices first exceeded $3800 per ounce, reaching $3805.979, marking a 1.26% increase, with an intraday high of $3819.81 [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw significant gains, closing at $3845.5 per ounce, up 0.96%, with a peak of $3849 [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following the August PCE inflation data, which aligns with market predictions [4]. 2. A weakening dollar and trends towards "de-dollarization," providing additional support for gold prices [4]. 3. Heightened political uncertainty due to the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for gold suggests a likely "short-term high-level fluctuation and a medium to long-term upward trend," with core drivers influencing market dynamics [5]. - The fundamental support for rising gold prices remains intact, driven by slowing U.S. economic growth, a cooling labor market, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies recommend that new investors consider entering the market during price corrections, while existing holders should maintain their positions [7]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious and rational approach, avoiding impulsive high purchases and instead waiting for reasonable price levels for gradual entry [7].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are advised to closely monitor Federal Reserve policy changes, global central bank gold purchasing trends, and geopolitical developments to flexibly adjust asset allocation strategies based on the evolution of core variables [1]. Gold Price Movement - On September 29, spot gold prices surpassed $3,800 per ounce for the first time, reaching a record high of $3,805.979 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 1.26% and a peak of $3,819.81 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures also experienced significant gains, rising by 0.96% to $3,845.5 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3,849 per ounce [1]. Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, supported by August's PCE inflation data, which aligns with the possibility of a rate cut in October, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [5]. 2. A weakening U.S. dollar, coupled with a trend towards "de-dollarization," providing additional support for gold prices [5]. 3. Rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown, increasing political uncertainty and enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold suggests a likely "short-term high-level fluctuation and a medium to long-term upward adjustment" in price levels, with core drivers determining the market rhythm [6]. - The fundamental logic supporting gold price increases remains intact, including slowing U.S. economic growth, a cooling labor market, and a low-interest-rate environment that continues to lower the cost of holding gold [6][7]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors who have not yet entered the market consider buying on dips, while those with existing positions should hold firmly [8]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "prudent first, rational layout" approach, avoiding blind chasing of high prices and waiting for reasonable market corrections before gradually entering [8]. - Gold should be viewed as a strategic component of asset allocation, serving to hedge risks and balance volatility, with allocation ratios tailored to individual risk tolerance [8].

截至上周五(9月26日)，伦敦现货黄金报收3,758.78美元/盎司，上周累计上涨74.13美元/盎司，涨幅 2.01%。上周金价突破上行并创新高。金价最高上行至3,791.08美元/盎司，最低下探至3,683.28美元/盎 司。 回顾上周以来海外主要市场动态：第一次降息已经落地，本周美联储官员表态出现分歧、但整体偏鸽， 后续降息预期仍然存在；此外，地缘政治风险扩大、美国政府短期面临停摆风险等因素，有望驱动金价 上行. 中长期美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球"去美元化"趋势对金价依然构成利好， 可持续关注，或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基金ETF(518800)。关注本周美国9月失业率、美国9月非农就 业报告。 周度回顾： (1)海外经济 经济数据上，9月美国Markit制造业PMI初值降至52，略低于预期的52.2；服务业PMI为53.9，略低于预 期的54；综合PMI初值为53.6，位于偏高水平。美国二季度GDP第二次修正值进一步上修0.5pp至3.8%， 其中消费上修0.9pp至2.5%，投资上修1.1pp至4.4%，消费+投资增速达2.9%，显示上半年美国经济韧性 强于此前预期。8月核心P ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the U.S. government regarding a new round of tariffs, particularly targeting imports from China and the EU, while reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles, highlights a selective enforcement strategy that intertwines economic measures with political considerations [1][5][21]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Details - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 100% on various imported goods, including heavy trucks, home goods, and pharmaceuticals [1]. - Key targets for these tariffs include electric vehicles, heavy machinery, and electronic components from China, with tax rates doubling or even exceeding previous levels [3]. - The tariff on Japanese automobiles has been reduced from 25% to 15%, reflecting political motivations rather than economic logic [5]. Group 2: Global Trade Reactions - The new tariff measures have escalated tensions in global trade, prompting countries to reassess their economic relationships with the U.S. [3]. - China has responded with countermeasures, increasing import tariffs on U.S. goods and implementing restrictions on key resource exports [10]. - The EU has initiated a counter-response against U.S. products worth billions of euros and resumed negotiations on liquefied natural gas procurement [12]. Group 3: Political Implications - The selective nature of the tariff policy has drawn criticism domestically and internationally, with concerns that it undermines the global competitiveness of U.S. companies [7]. - The tariffs are seen as a political strategy aimed at swing states in the Midwest, where manufacturing jobs are concentrated [7]. - Japan's government has distanced itself from U.S. policies, emphasizing the importance of avoiding trade friction due to its reliance on Asian supply chains [16]. Group 4: Broader Economic Trends - The current trade tensions reflect a shift in global economic dynamics, with non-U.S. economies seeking to strengthen cooperation and reduce dependence on the U.S. market [18][21]. - Countries are exploring new trade networks outside of U.S. influence, with China and the EU moving towards trade agreements with Southeast Asia, South America, and India [17]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining traction, as countries pursue mechanisms to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar for trade [19].

今日A股全天震荡走强，三大指数集体上涨。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿。截至收盘，沪指涨0.90%，深 成指涨2.05%，创业板指涨2.74%。个股层面上，全市场超3500只个股上涨，呈现普涨行情，赚钱效应 好。从板块来看，券商板块集体爆发，新能源板块继续走强，有色金属板块全天走高，此外半导体产业 链午后回暖。大盘在经历了一段时期的高位震荡后，今日的普涨行情有助于提振市场情绪和风险偏好。 发改委今日表示将适时加力实施宏观政策，当前全市场成交量依然活跃，叠加国内政策加码，经济复苏 预期，中长期看A股整体上行趋势有望延续。 新能车ETF（159806）今日上涨4.42%。 消息面上，固态电池再迎政策利好。八部门《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》提出加 快全固态电池材料等高端产品应用验证。工信部发布《电子信息制造业2025—2026年稳增长行动方 案》，支持全固态电池等前沿技术方向基础研究。固态电池国内外产业化加速，设备端将率先受益。 需求方面，国内进入传统旺季。根据国盛证券，储能方面，上半年全球储能电芯出货226GWh （+97%），国内订单超160GWh（+220%）。目前国内储能电芯的需求十分 ...