Group 1 - The domestic beer industry is experiencing a downturn in 2024, with major companies like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Yanjing Beer reducing their workforce by over a thousand employees each, with Budweiser APAC seeing the largest reduction from 21,181 to 18,401 employees [1] - In contrast, the white liquor industry is expanding, with only 7 out of 22 listed companies reducing their workforce, and major players like Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe Brewery increasing their employee count by over a thousand [1] - The overall number of employees in the 44 listed liquor companies has decreased by over 3,800, bringing the total below 300,000 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of widespread layoffs in the white liquor sector, executive compensation has tightened, with 11 A-share white liquor companies reporting a decrease in total remuneration for their directors and supervisors [3] - Specific examples include the chairman and general manager of Kuozi Jiao, Xu Jin, whose pre-tax salary dropped from 3.644 million to 2.644 million, and Shede Liquor's chairman, Pu Jizhou, whose salary decreased from over 3.5 million to 2.7 million [3] - In contrast to executives, the average salary for regular employees in liquor companies remained relatively stable, with Kweichow Moutai increasing its workforce by over 1,400 and maintaining a leading position in average employee compensation [3] Group 3 - Industry analysts suggest that the white liquor sector is approaching a turning point, indicated by three signals: a reshuffling of distribution channels, companies controlling inventory to stabilize prices, and the absence of long-term price stagnation for Moutai [3] - Currently, inventory control and price stabilization have become normalized practices among liquor companies, while channel reshuffling is ongoing, and signals of price stagnation have yet to emerge [3]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 今世缘（603369）2024 年股东大会调研反馈 强推（维持） 稳健进取，持续破局 目标价：75 元 事项： ❖ 公司于 5 月 21 日召开 2024 年度股东大会以及分析师和投资者交流会，会上 公司领导积极坦诚交流，就行业发展阶段、公司战略考量、具体执行落地等投 资者关切的问题，进行深刻透彻地解答。我们前往参会，核心反馈及分析如下： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,546 | 12,578 | 13,641 | 14,695 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,412 | 3,647 | 3,930 | 4,235 | | 同比增速(%) | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.74 | 2.93 | 3.15 | 3.40 | | 市盈率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "ban on alcohol" has limited short-term impact on the liquor industry, but it may significantly influence the strategic layout of liquor companies and alter the industry landscape [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Impact of the New Ban - The new ban is issued by the central government, marking a shift from previous local regulations, and it imposes stricter standards on alcohol consumption in government settings [1][2]. - The 2025 revised regulations explicitly prohibit all alcoholic beverages in work meals, affecting state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [2][3]. Market Reaction and Consumption Trends - The proportion of government consumption in liquor sales has decreased from 40% in 2011 to around 5% currently, suggesting that the direct revenue impact of the new ban will be minimal [2][5]. - The new regulations are linked to recent incidents involving officials and alcohol, which may lead to temporary market volatility but are not expected to fundamentally alter investment logic in the liquor sector [2][3]. Brand and Market Dynamics - The new ban is unlikely to replicate the severe market downturn seen after the 2012 "Eight Regulations," as high-end brands like Moutai remain essential in business settings [3][5]. - Moutai's sales from government channels are estimated to be around 2% of total sales, indicating limited exposure to the new regulations [5][6]. - The ban may disproportionately affect mid-tier brands that rely on government consumption for brand prestige, while high-end brands maintain their market position [5][6]. Long-term Industry Evolution - The series of alcohol bans over the years has gradually shifted the liquor industry from policy dependence to market-driven dynamics, leading to significant changes in industry structure [7][8]. - Current consumption scenarios show that family gatherings, social events, and business dinners are the top three contexts for liquor consumption, highlighting the need for brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences [8][11]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue evolving, with companies like Moutai and Wuliangye exploring new consumption scenarios and lifestyle branding to maintain relevance [11][12]. - Investors are advised to monitor the sector for potential recovery signals, with expectations for a market turnaround possibly extending to late 2025 or 2026 [12].

证 券 研 究 报 告 今世缘（603369）2024 年股东大会调研反馈 强推（维持） 稳健进取，持续破局 目标价：75 元 事项： ❖ 公司于 5 月 21 日召开 2024 年度股东大会以及分析师和投资者交流会，会上 公司领导积极坦诚交流，就行业发展阶段、公司战略考量、具体执行落地等投 资者关切的问题，进行深刻透彻地解答。我们前往参会，核心反馈及分析如下： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 公司研究 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,546 | 12,578 | 13,641 | 14,695 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,412 | 3,647 | 3,930 | 4,235 | | 同比增速(%) | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, influenced by changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions, leading to a focus on inventory reduction and product innovation among major liquor companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is in a "three-period overlap" phase, experiencing deep adjustments due to macroeconomic cycles, industry cycles, and individual company/product cycles [2]. - Major liquor companies are facing slowed or declining performance growth, with Wuliangye's 2024 revenue reaching 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [2]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2024 revenue and net profit grew by 3.19% and 1.71% respectively, while other companies like Shede Liquor reported significant declines in performance [2]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Major liquor companies have improved inventory levels after implementing strict supply control measures, with Wuliangye reporting low social inventory levels for its eighth-generation product [1][4]. - Wuliangye's sales performance has remained stable, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year, and overall market prices continuing to rise [4]. - Yanghe Co. emphasized the importance of inventory reduction as a key focus moving forward, while Luzhou Laojiao reported that its channel inventory is currently manageable [5]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - Guizhou Moutai has set a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach compared to previous years [3]. - Wuliangye aims to align its revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators for 2025, moving away from previous aggressive growth targets [3]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2025 operational plan focuses on steady progress rather than aggressive growth, indicating a shift in strategy [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards younger consumers and lower-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao noting that nearly 50% of its revenue now comes from lower-alcohol products [6]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to enhance the quality of its lower-alcohol products and target the "Z generation" through innovative marketing strategies [6]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on the younger consumer market, planning to accelerate the development and promotion of its lower-alcohol products [7].

Core Viewpoint - Both Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are focusing on national expansion while maintaining strong positions in their respective home markets, with an emphasis on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing brand appeal among younger consumers [2][4]. Group 1: National Expansion Strategies - Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue from markets outside Shanxi is projected to exceed 62% in 2024, with a faster growth rate compared to its home province, adding 598 new distributors outside Shanxi [2][5]. - Fenjiu is targeting the southern markets, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, by refining channel strategies and focusing on core distributors [3]. - Gujing Gongjiu has achieved a national coverage rate of over 70%, with a 6:4 revenue structure between domestic and provincial markets, aiming to create scale in provincial markets [3]. Group 2: Youth Engagement and Product Strategy - Fenjiu is launching a "Young Fenjiu" initiative starting in 2025, focusing on seven aspects of youth engagement, including product aesthetics and cultural expression [4]. - Gujing Gongjiu is implementing a "White Liquor+" strategy, enhancing consumer experiences and developing innovative products to cater to younger demographics [4]. - Gujing Gongjiu continues to focus on a mid-to-high-end strategy, expanding its product range to meet diverse consumer price preferences [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Both companies have refrained from setting specific growth targets for the upcoming year, citing a shift from rapid growth to structural growth in the industry [5]. - The white liquor industry is facing challenges such as oversupply, high inventory, and intense competition, leading to a consensus on slower growth [5]. - Fenjiu holds approximately one-third market share in the clear aroma segment but currently has no plans for major asset restructuring or acquisitions [5].

看了一圈雪球，评论都很主观和没有逻辑，尤其是对于"年轻人不喝酒"这个话题 先说下我的观点，白酒的三大消费群: 1. 政府消费，现在禁酒 2. 商务消费，整体经营困难，带着商务消费下降 3. 居民消费，年轻人接不上力 所以不看好，白酒会持续性衰退，除非1和2有转机，还有一个想象空间是出口。 p.s. 现在对白酒的一些论调，很像当时房价下跌 三四线城市房价跌，一二线城市不会受影响 白酒消费整体减弱，大家都去好酒喝高端酒 学区房还是能保持住。 ymz1996 很多年前，我4元多买了长城汽车，然后看到最多的讨论就是国内汽车已经饱和了，道路无法 承受，然后就卖出了，结果....... 现在这么多年过去了，也没人说汽车饱和，道路拥挤了。 nvidia 这个东西涨上天也和我去无关。因为我不喝 身边也没人喝。巴菲特说不懂不做。 谁不想三五好友，小酌微熏，相谈甚欢呢。 铁骨素心 一二看看餐饮就知道了，高端餐饮成片的倒闭，中低端餐饮同样举步维艰 三的话更确定，第一是年轻人玩法不一样了，第二是年轻人哪来的钱消费高端白酒？ ecowmy 一瓶茅台1499要抢，里面有什么吃了会爽翻天的东西么？除了送礼面子工程 抢购撸羊毛 金 融属性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently facing challenges such as weak sales, price inversion, and high inventory levels, exacerbated by a new alcohol ban, leading to a significant drop in stock prices for liquor companies [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The total revenue of 20 listed liquor companies for 2024 is projected to be 439 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, while net profit is expected to reach 166.63 billion yuan, up 7.40% [1] - The top three companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu) have a market share exceeding 65.4%, with profit concentration reaching 73.92% [1][3] - Moutai's revenue and profit growth for 2024 are both expected to exceed 15%, while Wuliangye's growth has dropped to single digits, marking its lowest level since 2017 [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Moutai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 174.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.66%, and net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to achieve a revenue of 36 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.79%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][10] - Gujing Gongjiu's net profit growth is notable at 20.22%, amidst a backdrop of declining performance from many other companies [2][10] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The total operating cash flow for listed liquor companies is projected to be 173.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.64%, driven mainly by leading companies like Moutai [6] - Moutai's cash flow growth rate is particularly high at 38.85%, attributed to increased sales and improved trust from distributors [6] - Contract liabilities for liquor companies totaled 56.08 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with Moutai's liabilities decreasing by 32.09% to 9.59 billion yuan, marking a significant shift in its financial strategy [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The liquor market is experiencing a shift, with Moutai leveraging various sales strategies to maintain its market position, despite facing challenges in balancing volume and price [7][8] - The competition landscape is evolving, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also showing some positive financial indicators, despite overall industry challenges [9][10] - The rise of instant retail and e-commerce is reshaping the market, providing opportunities for companies to adapt and capture more daily liquor consumption [12]

寻找生机，探索创新 — — 食品饮料 2025 年中期策略 执业证书编号：S0680524120001 执业证书编号：S0680523080003 执业证书编号：S0680524060005 邮箱：liziyu1@gszq.com 邮箱：chenyi5@gszq.com 邮箱：wanglingyao@gszq.com 分析师 李依琳 研究助理 黄越 研究助理 吴林轩 执业证书编号：S0680524080001 执业证书编号：S0680124060012 执业证书编号：S0680124070006 证券研究报告 | 行业策略 2025 05 21 年 月 日 分析师 李梓语 分析师 陈熠 分析师 王玲瑶 邮箱：liyilin@gszq.com 邮箱：huangyue1@gszq.com 邮箱：wulinxuan@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 投资摘要 投资建议：1、白酒：强化内功，蓄力改善，中长期配置价值凸显，建议关注"优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒 企份额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）、今世缘（江苏 ...

茅台与中国白酒行业近期因一则政策消息再度陷入震荡。有观察者注意到，茅台股东大会的欢迎晚宴已 悄然从传统宴席改为自助餐，席间取代飞天茅台的不再是招牌白酒，而是企业自行研发的蓝莓果汁。这 一细节变动引发业界猜想：中国白酒市场是否已步入深度调整期？从"3000元神话"到"价格倒挂"：茅台 热度的消退轨迹 曾几何时，53度飞天茅台堪称中国白酒市场的"硬通货"——官方指导价1499元，经销 商拿货价一度低于千元，终端市场价却长期突破3000元大关。这种"越炒越热"的畸形现象，本质是公务 消费、商务宴请与礼品经济共同催生的泡沫。 Z世代消费者对传统酒桌文化的疏离感日益增强，更倾向于低度酒、精酿啤酒等新兴品类。数据显示， 2022年中国白酒消费者中，30岁以下人群占比不足15%，且这一群体对白酒的品牌忠诚度较低。与此同 时，"喝酒的人不买，买酒的人不喝"的畸形生态被打破，过去依靠礼品经济支撑的高价白酒失去了重要 需求来源。从"腐败符号"到"国民饮品"：茅台的转型必答题 茅台酒价的大起大落，折射出行业深层次的 结构性矛盾。当一瓶白酒被异化为权力与利益交换的媒介，其价格早已脱离商品属性。如今政策之手打 破这种扭曲生态，恰恰为行 ...